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Girlfriend professional pundit Eurovision round 2 can she do it again?

DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
So my girlfriend who is obsessed with music and singing likes to think she can beat the bookies on eurovision bets.

last year my girlfriend picked the bets and she triumphed showing over £100 profit. can she do it again? is she really plus ev here? she thinks she is but if she was to place bets every year for our whole life she would still not have the sample size to verify one way or another. I will be posting the bets she suggests that I end up placing at her instruction here.

I will be shopping around for odds so bets may or may not be placed on sky. I think it disrespectful to list bets placed with other companies by name. So bets placed on the skybet platform will be listed as skybet other bets and odds will be listed only as other site with the stake and odds. going to list all bets placed and potential returns and see how it goes this year. we are on more of a limited bankroll the last year so may not be as many bets depends on how poker winnings go in the mean time. Bankroll constraints and all.

will Doublemes girlfriend beat the bookies again?

people can copy the bets if they like but I take no responsibility for wins or loses other people incur if they choose to copy bets. Will likely be placing bets either this weekend or next week etc.
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Comments

  • NOSTRINOSTRI Member Posts: 1,433
    I look forward to this every year.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    Girlfriend came running in for first bet so we have a first bet placed already before the weekend.
    Not to Qualify Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovenia & Switzerland @ 10/1
    RequestABet Specials 11/1 to 28/1

    Eurovision Song Contest 2022 & Semi Finals

    a £5 free bet which had saved a few for these was placed so this will net £50 potential if it comes in. This is a skybet bet.

    she believes all of these suck except montenagro, who she believes is very good but wont be popular.
  • kapowblamzkapowblamz Member Posts: 1,440
    Unless some miracle happens I can't see anyone but Ukraine winning.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580

    Unless some miracle happens I can't see anyone but Ukraine winning.

    that bet was on not to qualify. Not who would win. there are other bets such as top 4 finish top 5 top 10 etc depending on site to qualify not to qualify. Semi final winner etc etc.

    Though would be good if we could have some sort of accumulator option to build our own long shot bet to maybe place £2 on a bet which will likely will never come in but if does pays out £40,000 etc.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    Ukraine to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Norway, Portugal & Spain. United Kingdom Not to Finish in the Top 5

    £5 free bet. another one of her choices.

    Apparently Norway will get that high because its funny and quirky. Spain will sell purely on sex appeal, and people will appreciate the musicality of Portugal's entry. UK wont finish top five because Europe hate us.

    This is my girlfriends reasoning lets see if the bets are profitable. She says the only one in this she has doubt on is Portugal but everything else she is pretty sure of.

    You dont have to put that bit but hey she also said.
  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 5,854
    Doubleme said:

    Ukraine to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Norway, Portugal & Spain. United Kingdom Not to Finish in the Top 5

    £5 free bet. another one of her choices.

    Apparently Norway will get that high because its funny and quirky. Spain will sell purely on sex appeal, and people will appreciate the musicality of Portugal's entry. UK wont finish top five because Europe hate us.

    This is my girlfriends reasoning lets see if the bets are profitable. She says the only one in this she has doubt on is Portugal but everything else she is pretty sure of.

    You dont have to put that bit but hey she also said.



    I,ve not heard the UK song yet but already laid it for top 5. It could be the best song ever and it will probably still get beat by the likes of "Give that Wolf a banana" WTF
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 3,601
    Betting on Eurovision surely has to be absolute example of time to tap out.

    The best song hardly ever wins, everybody sticks up for their mates, rigged voting, tactical bollox, and the whole thing is improperly named. How long has Israel been part of Europe ffs?

    Let's be honest Eurovisions only contribution to entertainment was the intermission performance of Riverdance over a quarter of a century ago.

    Maybe we could attract a better quality of song by offering membership of NATO to the winning country. Also perhaps this year the UK can finish ahead of Russia. Just.

    Eurovision bah! I'd rather go shopping, wearing a Man Utd shirt, eating a pea fritter and drinking a can of Yaks pee.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580

    Betting on Eurovision surely has to be absolute example of time to tap out.

    The best song hardly ever wins, everybody sticks up for their mates, rigged voting, tactical bollox, and the whole thing is improperly named. How long has Israel been part of Europe ffs?

    Let's be honest Eurovisions only contribution to entertainment was the intermission performance of Riverdance over a quarter of a century ago.

    Maybe we could attract a better quality of song by offering membership of NATO to the winning country. Also perhaps this year the UK can finish ahead of Russia. Just.

    Eurovision bah! I'd rather go shopping, wearing a Man Utd shirt, eating a pea fritter and drinking a can of Yaks pee.

    my girlfriend is very passionate about music and singing and believes rightly or wrongly that she can beat the bookies. I dont bet amounts I cannot afford its something I do each year to share with my girlfriend.

    Also Australia is not part of Europe but is Eurovision. At this point I think calling it Eurovision makes little sense but I dont dictate the names they use.
  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 5,854

    Unless some miracle happens I can't see anyone but Ukraine winning.


    @kapowblamz

    What odds do you think they,ll go off at . They,ve been going in gradually for a while (2/1 last week ) 1.69 now
  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 5,854

    Betting on Eurovision surely has to be absolute example of time to tap out.

    The best song hardly ever wins, everybody sticks up for their mates, rigged voting, tactical bollox, and the whole thing is improperly named. How long has Israel been part of Europe ffs?

    Let's be honest Eurovisions only contribution to entertainment was the intermission performance of Riverdance over a quarter of a century ago.

    Maybe we could attract a better quality of song by offering membership of NATO to the winning country. Also perhaps this year the UK can finish ahead of Russia. Just.

    Eurovision bah! I'd rather go shopping, wearing a Man Utd shirt, eating a pea fritter and drinking a can of Yaks pee.


    You,ve obviously not checked this years quality, A lyrical masterpiece





  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    So girlfriend has placed some more bets now I will just post all the bets so far.

    Ukraine to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Norway, Portugal & Spain. United Kingdom Not to Finish in the Top 5 @ 14/1 £5 free bet returns £70

    Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia, Denmark & Iceland @ 33/1 £5 free bet returns £165

    Not to Qualify for the Final: Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovenia & Switzerland @ 10/1 £5 free bet returns £50

    Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Denmark & Iceland @ 10/1 £5 free bet returns £50

    Semi Final 1 Not to Qualify for the Final: Austria, Latvia, Lithuania & Moldova @ 12/1 £5 free bet returns £60

    Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia, Denmark & Iceland @ 33/1 £3 bet returns £102

    Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia & Iceland. Not to Qualify for the Final: Austria @ 10/1 £5 bet returns £55
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    Also note one of the bets was done twice but My girlfriend thinks this is likely so wanted to double down.

    Also my girlfriend says she thinks its unlucky me posting this because if it goes wrong she will look like a tit.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    So Semi final one tonight will we be up after tonight? A lot goes down tonight!
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 5,375
    Doubleme said:

    So Semi final one tonight will we be up after tonight? A lot goes down tonight!

    The results last night show the fun, and the risks, of betting.

    The main difficulty is always going to be trying to guess/predict how the voting will go. I think how good a song is, particularly to anyone with singing experience, is only a small part of the equation. Possibly smaller than it should be, but that is part of the fun.

    Easy to say yesterday proves more than it actually does. Good luck played a part last year, just like bad luck did last night.

    Best of luck with any bets for 2nd Semi/Final.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    Essexphil said:

    Doubleme said:

    So Semi final one tonight will we be up after tonight? A lot goes down tonight!

    The results last night show the fun, and the risks, of betting.

    The main difficulty is always going to be trying to guess/predict how the voting will go. I think how good a song is, particularly to anyone with singing experience, is only a small part of the equation. Possibly smaller than it should be, but that is part of the fun.

    Easy to say yesterday proves more than it actually does. Good luck played a part last year, just like bad luck did last night.

    Best of luck with any bets for 2nd Semi/Final.
    yeah not off to the best start this year I think whenever you bet you have to do so been willing to lose what you stake. When I go for a poker session I normally do a reverse calculation where I work out if the other players on my table all had winning reg roi and I was the fish how much would I lose per game and can I afford that. The answer is yes in the short term no in the long term, but then I would realize if I lost that hard for long enough that something was off and I would stop playing and move down stakes and study etc.

    The thing is we will likely never have the sample size to verify whether my girlfriend does have the egde or not. It is something I do with her every year to share with her, I do not stake money on sports or entertainment betting that I cannot afford to lose outright.
    anyway I will be updating the bets for the semi final round 2 soon, it is worth noting if we lost everything this year we would still be up on the two years combined.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    All Top 10 Finish in the Final: Spain, Italy, France & Sweden, United Kingdom Not to Finish Top 5 in the Final @ 13/2 £5 stake returns £37.50

    Top 3 Finish in the Final: Sweden. Top 10 finish in the Final: Portugal, Greece & Norway @ 7/1 stake £5 returns £40

    Semi Final 2 - to Qualify for the Final: Malta & San Marino. Not to Qualify for the Final: Czech Republic @ 8/1 stake £5 returns £45


    All Top 5 Finish in the Final: Ukraine & Sweden. All Top 10 Finish in the Final: Australia, Poland, Portugal & United Kingdom @ 25/1 Stake £4 returns £104

    Ukraine to win the Finals, Spain & Italy to Finish Top 5 in the Finals, Portugal Top 10 in the Finals @ 9/1 Stake £4 returns £40

    Sweden to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Spain. To Qualify for the Final: Cyprus @ 20/1 Stake £3 returns £63

    All Top 10 Finish in the Final: Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, Ukraine & Portugal @ 7/1 Stake £5 returns £40

    Semi Final 2 - All Not to Qualify for the Final: Czech Republic, Israel & Romania @ 4/1Stake £10 returns £50

  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    total Staked £49 plus £25 in free bets.

    Not sure how the best way to calculate the free bets is they count for some value but are not worth the face value as you dont get the stake back. I could work out effective stake (amount I would need to stake to get the same returns if no free bet) I could go by the thing I heard that a free bet is worth 80% of its face value if the former then does that work I can see a few issues with that.

    If not then the 80% is just something I heard from a youtube video and have no way of knowing how good that figure is. I think ultimately its best just to list actual money amount and the free bet amounts separately.
  • SidV79SidV79 Member Posts: 3,096
    Doubleme said:

    total Staked £49 plus £25 in free bets.

    Not sure how the best way to calculate the free bets is they count for some value but are not worth the face value as you dont get the stake back. I could work out effective stake (amount I would need to stake to get the same returns if no free bet) I could go by the thing I heard that a free bet is worth 80% of its face value if the former then does that work I can see a few issues with that.

    If not then the 80% is just something I heard from a youtube video and have no way of knowing how good that figure is. I think ultimately its best just to list actual money amount and the free bet amounts separately.

    Don't know if this will help but if you place a £5 free bet on a 10/1 chance your return would be £50. To get the same amount back including your stake then you would have to place a £4.55 bet @10/1 (you would get £50.05 back)
  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 5,854
    GL for tommorow night

    I,ve followed a cpl of tips on here and layed UK for Top 5 and Top 10

  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    SidV79 said:

    Doubleme said:

    total Staked £49 plus £25 in free bets.

    Not sure how the best way to calculate the free bets is they count for some value but are not worth the face value as you dont get the stake back. I could work out effective stake (amount I would need to stake to get the same returns if no free bet) I could go by the thing I heard that a free bet is worth 80% of its face value if the former then does that work I can see a few issues with that.

    If not then the 80% is just something I heard from a youtube video and have no way of knowing how good that figure is. I think ultimately its best just to list actual money amount and the free bet amounts separately.

    Don't know if this will help but if you place a £5 free bet on a 10/1 chance your return would be £50. To get the same amount back including your stake then you would have to place a £4.55 bet @10/1 (you would get £50.05 back)
    yeah I know how to do the math the issue is bookies work out the odds they think then factor in an edge for themselves based on that and this wont be the same amount throughout the different stakes. hypothetically if I bet on 300-1 odds the £5 would be worth almost all its face value at that point. Where as if I went for Evens the bet would be worth £2.50.

    I think that is a separate debate in itself, I just list the money bets and free bets separately and then people can define it however they want. to get a tie the bets need to make somewhere between £69 and £73 £74 and above and she has beaten the bookies again.

    As I said previously If we lost every bet outright this year we would still be in profit over the two years.
    MP33 said:

    GL for tommorow night

    I,ve followed a cpl of tips on here and layed UK for Top 5 and Top 10

    Yeah my girlfriend thinks Uk will finish top ten but not top 5 she thinks our song is among the best, but thinks Europe does not like us so politics will play a factor and we wont get top 5. She says if we get less then top ten she thinks its a travesty.

    England Winni (he came in the box of 76 Winnis it was around 100 but some of them were tiggers and Eors) is passionately rooting for England because he roots for England on everything he the one who dressed as an England rugby player so I gave him the personality of drunk England football fan.
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