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Girlfriend professional pundit Eurovision round 2 can she do it again?
Doubleme
Member Posts: 2,147
So my girlfriend who is obsessed with music and singing likes to think she can beat the bookies on eurovision bets.
last year my girlfriend picked the bets and she triumphed showing over £100 profit. can she do it again? is she really plus ev here? she thinks she is but if she was to place bets every year for our whole life she would still not have the sample size to verify one way or another. I will be posting the bets she suggests that I end up placing at her instruction here.
I will be shopping around for odds so bets may or may not be placed on sky. I think it disrespectful to list bets placed with other companies by name. So bets placed on the skybet platform will be listed as skybet other bets and odds will be listed only as other site with the stake and odds. going to list all bets placed and potential returns and see how it goes this year. we are on more of a limited bankroll the last year so may not be as many bets depends on how poker winnings go in the mean time. Bankroll constraints and all.
will Doublemes girlfriend beat the bookies again?
people can copy the bets if they like but I take no responsibility for wins or loses other people incur if they choose to copy bets. Will likely be placing bets either this weekend or next week etc.
last year my girlfriend picked the bets and she triumphed showing over £100 profit. can she do it again? is she really plus ev here? she thinks she is but if she was to place bets every year for our whole life she would still not have the sample size to verify one way or another. I will be posting the bets she suggests that I end up placing at her instruction here.
I will be shopping around for odds so bets may or may not be placed on sky. I think it disrespectful to list bets placed with other companies by name. So bets placed on the skybet platform will be listed as skybet other bets and odds will be listed only as other site with the stake and odds. going to list all bets placed and potential returns and see how it goes this year. we are on more of a limited bankroll the last year so may not be as many bets depends on how poker winnings go in the mean time. Bankroll constraints and all.
will Doublemes girlfriend beat the bookies again?
people can copy the bets if they like but I take no responsibility for wins or loses other people incur if they choose to copy bets. Will likely be placing bets either this weekend or next week etc.
Comments
Not to Qualify Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovenia & Switzerland @ 10/1
RequestABet Specials 11/1 to 28/1
Eurovision Song Contest 2022 & Semi Finals
a £5 free bet which had saved a few for these was placed so this will net £50 potential if it comes in. This is a skybet bet.
she believes all of these suck except montenagro, who she believes is very good but wont be popular.
Though would be good if we could have some sort of accumulator option to build our own long shot bet to maybe place £2 on a bet which will likely will never come in but if does pays out £40,000 etc.
£5 free bet. another one of her choices.
Apparently Norway will get that high because its funny and quirky. Spain will sell purely on sex appeal, and people will appreciate the musicality of Portugal's entry. UK wont finish top five because Europe hate us.
This is my girlfriends reasoning lets see if the bets are profitable. She says the only one in this she has doubt on is Portugal but everything else she is pretty sure of.
You dont have to put that bit but hey she also said.
I,ve not heard the UK song yet but already laid it for top 5. It could be the best song ever and it will probably still get beat by the likes of "Give that Wolf a banana" WTF
The best song hardly ever wins, everybody sticks up for their mates, rigged voting, tactical bollox, and the whole thing is improperly named. How long has Israel been part of Europe ffs?
Let's be honest Eurovisions only contribution to entertainment was the intermission performance of Riverdance over a quarter of a century ago.
Maybe we could attract a better quality of song by offering membership of NATO to the winning country. Also perhaps this year the UK can finish ahead of Russia. Just.
Eurovision bah! I'd rather go shopping, wearing a Man Utd shirt, eating a pea fritter and drinking a can of Yaks pee.
Also Australia is not part of Europe but is Eurovision. At this point I think calling it Eurovision makes little sense but I dont dictate the names they use.
@kapowblamz
What odds do you think they,ll go off at . They,ve been going in gradually for a while (2/1 last week ) 1.69 now
You,ve obviously not checked this years quality, A lyrical masterpiece
Ukraine to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Norway, Portugal & Spain. United Kingdom Not to Finish in the Top 5 @ 14/1 £5 free bet returns £70
Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia, Denmark & Iceland @ 33/1 £5 free bet returns £165
Not to Qualify for the Final: Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovenia & Switzerland @ 10/1 £5 free bet returns £50
Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Denmark & Iceland @ 10/1 £5 free bet returns £50
Semi Final 1 Not to Qualify for the Final: Austria, Latvia, Lithuania & Moldova @ 12/1 £5 free bet returns £60
Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia, Denmark & Iceland @ 33/1 £3 bet returns £102
Semi Final 1 to Qualify for the Final: Croatia & Iceland. Not to Qualify for the Final: Austria @ 10/1 £5 bet returns £55
Also my girlfriend says she thinks its unlucky me posting this because if it goes wrong she will look like a tit.
The main difficulty is always going to be trying to guess/predict how the voting will go. I think how good a song is, particularly to anyone with singing experience, is only a small part of the equation. Possibly smaller than it should be, but that is part of the fun.
Easy to say yesterday proves more than it actually does. Good luck played a part last year, just like bad luck did last night.
Best of luck with any bets for 2nd Semi/Final.
The thing is we will likely never have the sample size to verify whether my girlfriend does have the egde or not. It is something I do with her every year to share with her, I do not stake money on sports or entertainment betting that I cannot afford to lose outright.
anyway I will be updating the bets for the semi final round 2 soon, it is worth noting if we lost everything this year we would still be up on the two years combined.
Top 3 Finish in the Final: Sweden. Top 10 finish in the Final: Portugal, Greece & Norway @ 7/1 stake £5 returns £40
Semi Final 2 - to Qualify for the Final: Malta & San Marino. Not to Qualify for the Final: Czech Republic @ 8/1 stake £5 returns £45
All Top 5 Finish in the Final: Ukraine & Sweden. All Top 10 Finish in the Final: Australia, Poland, Portugal & United Kingdom @ 25/1 Stake £4 returns £104
Ukraine to win the Finals, Spain & Italy to Finish Top 5 in the Finals, Portugal Top 10 in the Finals @ 9/1 Stake £4 returns £40
Sweden to Win the Final. Top 10 Finish in the Final: Spain. To Qualify for the Final: Cyprus @ 20/1 Stake £3 returns £63
All Top 10 Finish in the Final: Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, Ukraine & Portugal @ 7/1 Stake £5 returns £40
Semi Final 2 - All Not to Qualify for the Final: Czech Republic, Israel & Romania @ 4/1Stake £10 returns £50
Not sure how the best way to calculate the free bets is they count for some value but are not worth the face value as you dont get the stake back. I could work out effective stake (amount I would need to stake to get the same returns if no free bet) I could go by the thing I heard that a free bet is worth 80% of its face value if the former then does that work I can see a few issues with that.
If not then the 80% is just something I heard from a youtube video and have no way of knowing how good that figure is. I think ultimately its best just to list actual money amount and the free bet amounts separately.
I,ve followed a cpl of tips on here and layed UK for Top 5 and Top 10
I think that is a separate debate in itself, I just list the money bets and free bets separately and then people can define it however they want. to get a tie the bets need to make somewhere between £69 and £73 £74 and above and she has beaten the bookies again.
As I said previously If we lost every bet outright this year we would still be in profit over the two years. Yeah my girlfriend thinks Uk will finish top ten but not top 5 she thinks our song is among the best, but thinks Europe does not like us so politics will play a factor and we wont get top 5. She says if we get less then top ten she thinks its a travesty.
England Winni (he came in the box of 76 Winnis it was around 100 but some of them were tiggers and Eors) is passionately rooting for England because he roots for England on everything he the one who dressed as an England rugby player so I gave him the personality of drunk England football fan.