I do understand variance, what i dont understand is how variance fits in with situations where there appears to be only one result, when it should indeed, 'be varied'..... I would wholly embrace variance, as long term this is the way you win at poker (getting your money in with the odds in your favour, losing some of the time), if thats what is happening.
At 888 for example, there was no variation in a certain result whatsoever. So if you telling me if i dont understand that version of 'variance', then i agree, i dont!
This makes absolutely no sense. Not even a little bit.
Lets try and help. If there are results online that never have any result but one outcome... that was happening on 888 Poker... that is nothing to do with variance is it?
Always can bank on a Kinda childish comment! They just sent me free tickets just yesterday, which i will be using later..... before you say it, i also use free spins when they send me them, even though i would never play them with my own money either.
Lots of toing and froing in the micro dyms has meant that thanks to double points I'm getting to play the nightly 1k freeroll and earning a £2.30 token. I'm probably behind to the reg fee in these as the usual pattern of win 3 lose 4, win 4 lose 3 emerges but in the low stakes and freerolls I'm getting murdered.
Only score of note to date was a 17th spot in tonights 1k freebie for £10. got it in with a J J against J 10 off only to see the flop drop K Q 9, a meaningless 3 on the turn and the inevitable p15s take J on the river did for my charge to glory.
So as I'm about to play the 21.15 deep the bankroll is at £44 so it's looking decidedly iffy.
Oh well, onward and upward, have a great week and be lucky.
It began with the £1K freeroll and culminated in the £150 freeze out taking in everything from the nightly micro to the Mini Main.
The upshot is that I am not very good at poker, variance is an absolute beeatch, as I went on the kind of run bad that would have others trolling every post on the forum, berating the integrity of the software and generally behaving like a tw@t and, when my run good arrives oh boy is that going to be a week to remember.
Left with about £4 on the account which means lots of 28p dyms in order to rack up the points, I'm already good for next weeks freerolls and a £2.30 token and a couple of maxes in the forum competition might give me more options.
I fully expect a gloating post from the forums resident Nilhist, ridiculing me and my poker skills , or lack of, but I really don't give a flying fox.
So I'm going to keep on for the rest of the week and beyond until I run out of freerolls, tokens, beer and humour. If you recall at the start I did say it was going to be fun.
Depending on your definition of fun, it's certainly been that. Oh and if you were one of the luck boxes I told to fk themselves after your umpteenth suckout, sorry, I ran out of beer a while ago..
Live, love, laugh, drink beer, stay safe, embrace life with all you have because one day you won't be able to.
@TheEdge949 if you played 28 p dons with this promo enough assuming you dont go broke in them and stay ahead you in theory with enough volume and current promo could be getting 8p per 28p don you played in the form of rakeback or whatever its called. considering that the rake in these games is 3p you could be 5p up per game if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is assuming you could get 1000 games in a week.
on the standard non double points or what not this would be worth 4p a game a profit of 1p if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is what i am getting at when i say by exploiting promos in the right way players can make it very hard to be negative ev.
also note that the free rolls you would get would be worth about £7.5 for the rewards free rolls a week and about £20 or so for the major free roll sats.
@TheEdge949 if you played 28 p dons with this promo enough assuming you dont go broke in them and stay ahead you in theory with enough volume and current promo could be getting 8p per 28p don you played in the form of rakeback or whatever its called. considering that the rake in these games is 3p you could be 5p up per game if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is assuming you could get 1000 games in a week.
on the standard non double points or what not this would be worth 4p a game a profit of 1p if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is what i am getting at when i say by exploiting promos in the right way players can make it very hard to be negative ev.
also note that the free rolls you would get would be worth about £7.5 for the rewards free rolls a week and about £20 or so for the major free roll sats.
On the standard non double points I think you'll find that 55% is break even but I appreciate the advice and encouragement. Thanks buddy.
@TheEdge949 if you played 28 p dons with this promo enough assuming you dont go broke in them and stay ahead you in theory with enough volume and current promo could be getting 8p per 28p don you played in the form of rakeback or whatever its called. considering that the rake in these games is 3p you could be 5p up per game if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is assuming you could get 1000 games in a week.
on the standard non double points or what not this would be worth 4p a game a profit of 1p if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is what i am getting at when i say by exploiting promos in the right way players can make it very hard to be negative ev.
also note that the free rolls you would get would be worth about £7.5 for the rewards free rolls a week and about £20 or so for the major free roll sats.
On the standard non double points I think you'll find that 55% is break even but I appreciate the advice and encouragement. Thanks buddy.
yeah but thats not what i am referring to. Sky poker rounds the points upwards to the nearest 20p in rake. so 25p would get 2 points normally and with this promo 4 points instead of the 1.2 points it would get if they had decimal and no rounding.
because of this for the 28p dons where your paying 3pence rake but getting rakeback on 20 pence effectively. thus without the promo if you won 50% of the these and played enough you would get 20% of 20p which is 4p. and would need to play 2000 games to get that. with the promo you would get 40% of 20p and would need to play 1000 games to get this.
to be break even ignoring rakeback entirely you would need to win 56% of the time at the 28 p games. its 55% on other dons but your paying slightly more rake % here.
so with the right amount of volume on these games if you played 28p dons exclusively you would be getting more then 100% rakeback. that been said there are volume figures that get less then 100% rakeback but the just of it is these games are highly rakeback effecitve if just sticking to 28p dons.
Last chance saloon time as the old bankroll is down to a single solitary pound, yes that's right, a Sov, a Quid, a Nugget and then that's all she wrote.
I have this weeks free rolls and a 2.30 token to try and redeem the situation, so little chance there then.
Of course, me being the perennial loser that I am, I shall simply reload the bankroll, rename the thread and repeat the same mistakes over again.
Even if it ends this week, I calculate that 3 weeks of fun for a little over £50 represents value for money, especially compared to say watching Castleford or Stoke where £50 of beer is usually required just to get through it.
Now the only question is to I use the token and the remaining quid to play a £3 don where a cash means enough 28p dons to get freerolls for next week or do I lump it in the deepstack and go for a decent cash.
If I were you I'd load up an enjoyable film, surround it with 28p games and grind it out. but I enjoy a win no matter how minor. The important thing is to live your life as if you were alive, Goodluck
Comments
Yep i lost the game! 2 hands i had 86% before river card too...... Its a great poker experience......
Lots of toing and froing in the micro dyms has meant that thanks to double points I'm getting to play the nightly 1k freeroll and earning a £2.30 token. I'm probably behind to the reg fee in these as the usual pattern of win 3 lose 4, win 4 lose 3 emerges but in the low stakes and freerolls I'm getting murdered.
Only score of note to date was a 17th spot in tonights 1k freebie for £10. got it in with a J J against J 10 off only to see the flop drop K Q 9, a meaningless 3 on the turn and the inevitable p15s take J on the river did for my charge to glory.
So as I'm about to play the 21.15 deep the bankroll is at £44 so it's looking decidedly iffy.
Oh well, onward and upward, have a great week and be lucky.
You'll be fine, just gotta ride them punches.
The upshot is that I am not very good at poker, variance is an absolute beeatch, as I went on the kind of run bad that would have others trolling every post on the forum, berating the integrity of the software and generally behaving like a tw@t and, when my run good arrives oh boy is that going to be a week to remember.
Left with about £4 on the account which means lots of 28p dyms in order to rack up the points, I'm already good for next weeks freerolls and a £2.30 token and a couple of maxes in the forum competition might give me more options.
I fully expect a gloating post from the forums resident Nilhist, ridiculing me and my poker skills , or lack of, but I really don't give a flying fox.
So I'm going to keep on for the rest of the week and beyond until I run out of freerolls, tokens, beer and humour. If you recall at the start I did say it was going to be fun.
Depending on your definition of fun, it's certainly been that. Oh and if you were one of the luck boxes I told to fk themselves after your umpteenth suckout, sorry, I ran out of beer a while ago..
Live, love, laugh, drink beer, stay safe, embrace life with all you have because one day you won't be able to.
Speak soon.
Hope you turn it around soon Mark. Mind you, been saying that about Stoke for a few years now too.
this is assuming you could get 1000 games in a week.
on the standard non double points or what not this would be worth 4p a game a profit of 1p if you won exactly 50% of the time.
this is what i am getting at when i say by exploiting promos in the right way players can make it very hard to be negative ev.
also note that the free rolls you would get would be worth about £7.5 for the rewards free rolls a week and about £20 or so for the major free roll sats.
because of this for the 28p dons where your paying 3pence rake but getting rakeback on 20 pence effectively. thus without the promo if you won 50% of the these and played enough you would get 20% of 20p which is 4p. and would need to play 2000 games to get that. with the promo you would get 40% of 20p and would need to play 1000 games to get this.
to be break even ignoring rakeback entirely you would need to win 56% of the time at the 28 p games. its 55% on other dons but your paying slightly more rake % here.
so with the right amount of volume on these games if you played 28p dons exclusively you would be getting more then 100% rakeback. that been said there are volume figures that get less then 100% rakeback but the just of it is these games are highly rakeback effecitve if just sticking to 28p dons.
I have this weeks free rolls and a 2.30 token to try and redeem the situation, so little chance there then.
Of course, me being the perennial loser that I am, I shall simply reload the bankroll, rename the thread and repeat the same mistakes over again.
Even if it ends this week, I calculate that 3 weeks of fun for a little over £50 represents value for money, especially compared to say watching Castleford or Stoke where £50 of beer is usually required just to get through it.
Now the only question is to I use the token and the remaining quid to play a £3 don where a cash means enough 28p dons to get freerolls for next week or do I lump it in the deepstack and go for a decent cash.
Oh the agony of choice.
but I enjoy a win no matter how minor.
The important thing is to live your life as if you were alive, Goodluck
Nice point about the entertainment value and the hourly cost.