How about taking the number of non losing trades dividing that number by the amount of total trades and multiplying by 100 = strike rate %.
Now for a true win rate we would then deduct the number of scratch (break even) trades from the number of non losing trades and repeat the formula above.
Not sexy but it's accurate.
Oh and an overall break even percentage (the % of trades we have to win to maintain our bank) is not possible to calculate because the liability is a different amount each time as is the trade out figure. So we are back to averaging again.
For arguments sake lets say that the average win on a £5 trade is 20% so that's a £1 and the average loss on a £5 trade is £3. We would need to have 4 successful trades for each unsuccessful trade to turn a profit. So that would require an 80% success rate assuming level stakes to win over time and 75% would be break even.
The biggest difference between success and failure in sports trading is not necessarily in trade selection or even in strategy although this helps. It is in reducing those losses by pre empting the movement of the market and trading out sooner.
In the above example reducing the average loss to £2.75 from £3 will produce a huge difference over many trades.
That's why my aim is anything over 80%. Unless I start taking on ridiculous liability or lose my discipline, that should see the ultimate plan through to fruition.
right we got our wires crossed here, firstly I am not talking about how to work out your win percentage or average returns. I am talking about working out the statistical significance of this.
It is very easy to get wrong impressions if not recording your results. If you are recording your results its very easy to get the wrong impression due to variance.
I cannot comment on whether you are a profitable sports better, it is hypothetically possible you could be there are certainly people who do make a decent living from sports betting.
However it is easy to get the wrong impression, eg if I take my spin and go results from party last night it would be overwhelmingly implying that I am a strong winning player, if I took my spin and go results from today it would overwhelmingly imply I am a losing player.
Since they have changed the format merged two player pools and reduced rake back I have not played a lot on party plus I have limited time due to other commitments.
My sample size for this year (defined as Jan 1st onwards) let alone for the last two days is not enough to confirm that I am or am not a winning player.
I could confidently conclude that I am not been outplayed by the playerpool at large, as I do have a very strong statistical significance to say I win more then one third of the time. in spin and goes there are 3 players and its winner take all unless you hit a large jackpot spin.
Now I have been profitable this year on party, and right now it is fine to leave it at that. However hypothetically if I decided not to work (currently this is taking on random shifts here and there) and that i was going to play spin and goes on party for a living this would be a major major issue.
You are right the statistics test I mentioned the test of proportions would be inappropriate if you have wildly different returns for bets. My using this for spin and goes isnt terrible because I can get the likihood of any spin amount and factor that in.
you would likely in your case then be better of averaging out your results and applying basic confidence intervals to conclude a range of results in which you can be x% confident that your win rate is between A and B.
not sure if you know how to work out standard deviation which you would need for that I can explain it all but you would probably stand much more chance getting it from a youtube video.
I dont understand sports betting on a proper level and would need to know the exact details of the type of betting you are doing to confidently recommend the right statistics test.
just you should be testing for statistical significance if you want to be approaching this as if you are profitable better. Statistical significance is basically how confident you can be that your results are not just random variance/ good luck bad luck etc.
As I post my P&L results straight from the site after every session it's really quite easy to see if I'm profitable or not.
Stop confusing the issue with unnecessary analytics.
There is no random element really. The result of any trade is somewhere between the maximum profit and the maximum liability and if we are trading properly rather than betting neither of these figures should be the outcome.
Sports trading, especially football trading is very simple. That's what I'm attempting to show.
Ok another successful session despite only a few games fitting my criteria.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 16-May-2024 23:22 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-16 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-16 23:22
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £3.86 Total P&L: £3.86 Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Deportivo Riestra v Newells : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 16-May-24 21:10 16-May-24 23:09 0.73 Football / Almeria v Barcelona : First Half Goals 1.5 16-May-24 20:30 16-May-24 21:18 0.88 Football / FC Copenhagen v Midtjylland : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 16-May-24 19:00 16-May-24 20:52 1.26 Football / Leeds v Norwich : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 16-May-24 20:00 16-May-24 20:43 1.01 Football / Las Palmas v Betis : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 16-May-24 18:30 16-May-24 19:48 -0.05 Football / Las Palmas v Betis : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 16-May-24 18:30 16-May-24 19:02 0.03 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
A night off tonight, nothing really stood out and looking at the results from Poland, Saudi, Spain, Italy, Portugal and the Scandanavian leagues I'd have had a bad night.
In the end game @TheEdge949 results show whether u are lucky or great over a sample size of greater then say >2000 trades/bets. I would argue betting is so much more simple on a 3 horse race then say trading on that outcome. I could be proven wrong without doubt. I would ask our very reliable source either @Tikay10 or @NChanning on their views on this area.
I have this idea trading is very like dealing with shares. We can win big or lose very big in the right areas. If u know so much and like myself watch so much football for example, why do u not bet on the exchanges instead of trade? This I find perplexing and do not find a reason why not back a lot more only.
In the end game @TheEdge949 results show whether u are lucky or great over a sample size of greater then say >2000 trades/bets. I would argue betting is so much more simple on a 3 horse race then say trading on that outcome. I could be proven wrong without doubt. I would ask our very reliable source either @Tikay10 or @NChanning on their views on this area.
I have this idea trading is very like dealing with shares. We can win big or lose very big in the right areas. If u know so much and like myself watch so much football for example, why do u not bet on the exchanges instead of trade? This I find perplexing and do not find a reason why not back a lot more only.
Jammy
Ok, that is a very sensible question which I will try and answer. Firstly, I have no problem with a bet on an exchange, it's what it is, you wager a certain sum at a certain price to win a certain amount if you are right. Simple, easy, quick.
However when trading I can take that same initial bet for the same initial stake, realise that there may be an outcome that isn't going to mean I win but I can still use the price fluctuation to make a profit.
Let's take a really popular bet say OVER/UNDER 2.5 goals. Typically at kick off this might be 1.85 to back over and 2.1 to back under.
Now as a bettor you pay your money, lets use £10, and then settle down to watch the game hoping that there are 3 goals in it or not depending on whether you backed over or under.
Lets say you backed over, many punters back overs as opposed to under. Half time its still 0-0 and your bet is looking all but lost and you're facing a £10 loss. as a trader we can exit the market at that point for a much smaller loss of probably around £4. We have therefore saved 60% of our loss.
Also in the above example a first half goal whilst nice doesn't guarantee a win for the bettor. However it will change the price to a point where we can take that 20 - 40% profit and we are done
Lets say you have a £200 bank. You have 20 bets at £10 and they all lose, that's 20 bets before your bank is zero.
Trade the same 20 losing bets but cashing out for a 40% loss each time and after 20 bets you still have a £120 bank.
It works like the stock market you are correct but as we know the maximum of both profit and loss before we enter it has much less volatility.
Unlike betting, trading allows you to see when you may have got it wrong and then get out, sportsbooks certainly don't let you cash out losing bets for less.
Yes a straight bet wins us more when we are right, it also costs us more when we are wrong.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 18-May-2024 18:28 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-18 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-18 18:28
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £3.15 Total P&L: £3.15 Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Bolton v Oxford Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 18-May-24 16:15 18-May-24 18:17 1.79 Football / Leverkusen v Augsburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18-May-24 14:30 18-May-24 16:23 1.61 Football / Korona Kielce v Ruch Chorzow : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 18-May-24 14:00 18-May-24 15:54 -0.25 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 19-May-2024 21:49 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-19 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-19 21:49
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £12.32 Total P&L: £12.32 Football Showing 1 - 15 of 15 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Daily Goals : Daily Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:41 4.75 Football / Arsenal v Everton : Match Odds 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:02 4.75 Football / Sheff Utd v Tottenham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:00 -0.82 Football / Liverpool v Wolves : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:59 1.15 Football / Brighton v Man Utd : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:55 0.95 Football / Burnley v Nottm Forest : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:53 0.95 Football / Brentford v Newcastle : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:39 1.04 Football / Luton v Fulham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:30 1.26 Football / Crystal Palace v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:16 0.17 Football / Chelsea v Bournemouth : First Half Goals 1.5 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:49 0.57 Football / Arsenal v Everton : First Half Goals 1.5 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:44 -1.89 Football / Man City v West Ham : First Half Goals 1.5 19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:22 0.94 Football / Udinese v Empoli : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 19-May-24 14:00 19-May-24 16:06 -1.04 Football / Crawley Town v Crewe : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 19-May-24 13:00 19-May-24 15:02 0.52 Football / Sassuolo v Cagliari : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 19-May-24 11:30 19-May-24 13:22 -0.98 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Not a lot of time today so just watched the 1 game with 2 trades.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 20-May-2024 20:01 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-20 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-20 20:01
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £1.73 Total P&L: £1.73 Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Salernitana v Verona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 20-May-24 17:30 20-May-24 19:27 1.42 Football / Salernitana v Verona : First Half Goals 1.5 20-May-24 17:30 20-May-24 18:20 0.31 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
A whole afternoons trading for just 55p profit. Now that's grinding.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 21-May-2024 20:44 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-21 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-21 20:44
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £0.55 Total P&L: £0.55 Football Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / IFK Goteborg v Mjallby : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 20:03 0.26 Football / AGF v FC Copenhagen : Match Odds 21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 19:59 2.71 Football / AGF v FC Copenhagen : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 18:50 -1.74 Football / Beroe Stara Za v Lokomotiv Sofia : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 16:45 21-May-24 17:29 0.66 Football / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Shandong Taishan : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-May-24 13:00 21-May-24 15:01 -0.29 Football / Nantong Zhiyun F.C v Cangzhou Mighty Lions : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 13:00 21-May-24 14:58 0.61 Football / Ho Chi Minh City v Cong An Nhan Dan : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 13:15 21-May-24 14:31 0.75 Football / Meizhou Hakka v Sichuan Jiuniu FC : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 12:00 21-May-24 13:57 -2.00 Football / Chungnam Asan v Suwon Bluewings : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 11:30 21-May-24 13:29 -1.49 Football / Quang Nam v Binh Duong : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 21-May-24 11:00 21-May-24 12:31 1.08 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Well how just 1 match can make or break a day eh. Biggest single losing day to date as Leverkusen didn't even get going and I got caught by the second goal whilst trying to trade out as the market went "suspended" for about 2 minutes.
Still losses are a part of it, so let's just take it and move on.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 23-May-2024 09:48 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-22 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-22 23:48
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: -£7.01 Total P&L: -£7.01 Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:53 -2.00 Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:53 -8.27 Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Match Odds 22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:52 -1.42 Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 18:24 1.44 Football / VPS v KuPS : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 22-May-24 16:00 22-May-24 17:09 0.52 Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : First Half Goals 1.5 22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 16:43 1.17 Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : First Half Goals 0.5 22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 16:42 0.52 Football / Qingdao Youth Island v Changchun Yatai : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-May-24 12:35 22-May-24 13:52 1.03 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
That was a VERY odd game Mark. Good game actually, but very one-sided, especially considering that Leverkusen had not lost a game all season, 51 games I think.
And the result was not a fluke, Atalanta completely outplayed them, & in fact a star was born as Lookman scored THE most stunning hat-trick.
These games are gonna come along every now & then, as you well know.
Hopefully you'll still be doing this when the Euros come along, I think you'll do very well in those.
That was a VERY odd game Mark. Good game actually, but very one-sided, especially considering that Leverkusen had not lost a game all season, 51 games I think.
And the result was not a fluke, Atalanta completely outplayed them, & in fact a star was born as Lookman scored THE most stunning hat-trick.
These games are gonna come along every now & then, as you well know.
Hopefully you'll still be doing this when the Euros come along, I think you'll do very well in those.
The 3rd "group" games at the Euros often give opportunities. Particularly where both teams are through, or both out. Look for draws. Low scoring games. And the odd superior team throwing a game for an easier route to the Final. Who will rest players? And who will not.
Good luck. You will have worse days than this one. And better ones than your best day to date.
Thanks Tony, thanks Phil. I absolutely intend trading the Euros as it will be the last really big chance to build my bank for the new season.
Last nights game showed that you need a coach and a team to be adaptable. Atalanta simply shut Leverkusen down with a high press and they couldn't change their style to counter it.
It reminded me of early Premier League Stoke when we played the really technical teams. Harass them, close them down and stop the flow and distribution.
Tiny bit of profit for the day which would and should have been more but for circumstances that led me to err on the side of caution. The earlier markets had left me with a small profit which I intended to use on the Raith V Ross game. However, very limited amounts of liquidity meant that the markets were extremely slow to move and in markets where the element of time decay is crucial I could be left with no way to trade out if the market shifted against me. So I bailed out.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 23-May-2024 22:03 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-23 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-23 22:03
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £2.94 Total P&L: £2.94 Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Raith v Ross Co : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 23-May-24 20:00 23-May-24 21:58 -0.26 Football / Raith v Ross Co : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 23-May-24 20:00 23-May-24 21:58 0.09 Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 23-May-24 19:30 23-May-24 21:25 0.41 Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 23-May-24 19:30 23-May-24 21:03 1.10 Football / Al-Hilal v Al Taee : First Half Goals 1.5 23-May-24 19:00 23-May-24 19:45 0.36 Football / NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 23-May-24 17:45 23-May-24 19:40 2.67 Football / NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles : First Half Goals 1.5 23-May-24 17:45 23-May-24 18:32 -1.43 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 24-May-2024 21:58 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-24 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-24 21:58
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £3.46 Total P&L: £3.46 Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Girona v Granada : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 24-May-24 20:00 24-May-24 21:52 0.63 Football / Genoa v Bologna : Correct Score 24-May-24 19:45 24-May-24 21:39 2.37 Football / Austria Vienna v Hartberg : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 24-May-24 18:30 24-May-24 20:12 0.02 Football / Bodo Glimt v Kfum Oslo : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 24-May-24 18:00 24-May-24 19:54 1.13 Football / FK Javor Ivanjica v Zeleznicar Pancevo : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24-May-24 17:30 24-May-24 19:05 1.04 Football / ENPPI v Ceramica Cleopatra : Match Odds 24-May-24 17:00 24-May-24 19:00 1.15 Football / Al Wehdat v Al Aqaba : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24-May-24 17:00 24-May-24 18:54 -2.88 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Seven trades to day resulting in a small loss. Still happy enough with how it's going.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 25-May-2024 23:06 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-25 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-25 23:06
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: -£1.01 Total P&L: -£1.01 Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Fredrikstad v Tromso : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 25-May-24 17:00 25-May-24 18:59 -1.62 Football / Juventus v AC Monza : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 25-May-24 17:00 25-May-24 18:59 0.60 Football / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 25-May-24 15:00 25-May-24 17:08 -0.63 Football / Randers v Vejle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 25-May-24 14:00 25-May-24 15:54 0.22 Football / Celtic v Rangers : First Half Goals 1.5 25-May-24 15:00 25-May-24 15:49 -1.00 Football / Wuhan Three Towns v Meizhou Hakka : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 25-May-24 13:00 25-May-24 14:57 0.32 Football / Osasuna v Villarreal : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 25-May-24 13:00 25-May-24 14:52 1.10 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
A few trades today sticking strictly to the strategies. A little profit and the £150 milestone passed.
Still taking those baby steps. Next target is a £180 bank when the stakes will increase slightly.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 26-May-2024 23:23 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-26 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-26 23:23
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: £3.02 Total P&L: £3.02 Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Empoli v Roma : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:45 0.27 Football / Frosinone v Udinese : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:44 0.41 Football / Lazio v Sassuolo : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:39 -0.33 Football / Verona v Inter : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 20:24 0.57 Football / Brondby v AGF : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-May-24 16:00 26-May-24 17:40 0.20 Football / Las Palmas v Alaves : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 26-May-24 15:15 26-May-24 17:14 0.16 Football / Leeds v Southampton : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-May-24 15:00 26-May-24 17:04 0.57 Football / Getafe v Mallorca : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 26-May-24 13:00 26-May-24 14:48 1.17 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Eleven trades for a 77pence loss not a bad days trading.
Betting Profit & Loss Mark Godwin 27-May-2024 22:05 Period: Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-27 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to 2024-05-27 22:05
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Download to Spreadsheet ? Football: -£0.77 Total P&L: -£0.77 Football Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£) Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bochum : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 27-May-24 19:30 27-May-24 21:27 4.75 Football / Slavia Sofia v CSKA 1948 Sofia : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:56 -0.62 Football / Trelleborgs v Sundsvall : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:52 0.16 Football / Norrkoping v Varnamo : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:49 0.11 Football / Al Nassr v Al-Ittihad : First Half Goals 1.5 27-May-24 19:00 27-May-24 19:49 -2.00 Football / Al Ahli v Al-Feiha : First Half Goals 1.5 27-May-24 19:00 27-May-24 19:48 -2.50 Football / Botev Plovdiv v Arda : First Half Goals 1.5 27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 18:51 -0.79 Football / Lahti v SJK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 17:58 2.18 Football / VPS v FC Inter : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 17:53 0.29 Football / Lahti v SJK : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 16:46 -2.76 Football / Pyramids v El Gounah : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 27-May-24 14:00 27-May-24 15:59 0.41 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
Comments
Stop confusing the issue with unnecessary analytics.
There is no random element really. The result of any trade is somewhere between the maximum profit and the maximum liability and if we are trading properly rather than betting neither of these figures should be the outcome.
Sports trading, especially football trading is very simple. That's what I'm attempting to show.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 16-May-2024 23:22
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-16 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-16 23:22
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £3.86
Total P&L: £3.86
Football
Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Deportivo Riestra v Newells : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
16-May-24 21:10 16-May-24 23:09 0.73
Football / Almeria v Barcelona : First Half Goals 1.5
16-May-24 20:30 16-May-24 21:18 0.88
Football / FC Copenhagen v Midtjylland : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
16-May-24 19:00 16-May-24 20:52 1.26
Football / Leeds v Norwich : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
16-May-24 20:00 16-May-24 20:43 1.01
Football / Las Palmas v Betis : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
16-May-24 18:30 16-May-24 19:48 -0.05
Football / Las Palmas v Betis : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
16-May-24 18:30 16-May-24 19:02 0.03
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT P&L = + £21.22
I have this idea trading is very like dealing with shares. We can win big or lose very big in the right areas. If u know so much and like myself watch so much football for example, why do u not bet on the exchanges instead of trade? This I find perplexing and do not find a reason why not back a lot more only.
Jammy
However when trading I can take that same initial bet for the same initial stake, realise that there may be an outcome that isn't going to mean I win but I can still use the price fluctuation to make a profit.
Let's take a really popular bet say OVER/UNDER 2.5 goals. Typically at kick off this might be 1.85 to back over and 2.1 to back under.
Now as a bettor you pay your money, lets use £10, and then settle down to watch the game hoping that there are 3 goals in it or not depending on whether you backed over or under.
Lets say you backed over, many punters back overs as opposed to under. Half time its still 0-0 and your bet is looking all but lost and you're facing a £10 loss. as a trader we can exit the market at that point for a much smaller loss of probably around £4. We have therefore saved 60% of our loss.
Also in the above example a first half goal whilst nice doesn't guarantee a win for the bettor. However it will change the price to a point where we can take that 20 - 40% profit and we are done
Lets say you have a £200 bank. You have 20 bets at £10 and they all lose, that's 20 bets before your bank is zero.
Trade the same 20 losing bets but cashing out for a 40% loss each time and after 20 bets you still have a £120 bank.
It works like the stock market you are correct but as we know the maximum of both profit and loss before we enter it has much less volatility.
Unlike betting, trading allows you to see when you may have got it wrong and then get out, sportsbooks certainly don't let you cash out losing bets for less.
Yes a straight bet wins us more when we are right, it also costs us more when we are wrong.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 18-May-2024 18:28
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-18 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-18 18:28
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
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Football: £3.15
Total P&L: £3.15
Football
Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Bolton v Oxford Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
18-May-24 16:15 18-May-24 18:17 1.79
Football / Leverkusen v Augsburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
18-May-24 14:30 18-May-24 16:23 1.61
Football / Korona Kielce v Ruch Chorzow : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
18-May-24 14:00 18-May-24 15:54 -0.25
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL £134.84
CURRENT P&L = + £24.84
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 19-May-2024 21:49
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-19 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-19 21:49
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £12.32
Total P&L: £12.32
Football
Showing 1 - 15 of 15 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Daily Goals : Daily Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:41 4.75
Football / Arsenal v Everton : Match Odds
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:02 4.75
Football / Sheff Utd v Tottenham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 18:00 -0.82
Football / Liverpool v Wolves : Over/Under 7.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:59 1.15
Football / Brighton v Man Utd : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:55 0.95
Football / Burnley v Nottm Forest : Over/Under 5.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:53 0.95
Football / Brentford v Newcastle : Over/Under 5.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:39 1.04
Football / Luton v Fulham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:30 1.26
Football / Crystal Palace v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 17:16 0.17
Football / Chelsea v Bournemouth : First Half Goals 1.5
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:49 0.57
Football / Arsenal v Everton : First Half Goals 1.5
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:44 -1.89
Football / Man City v West Ham : First Half Goals 1.5
19-May-24 16:00 19-May-24 16:22 0.94
Football / Udinese v Empoli : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
19-May-24 14:00 19-May-24 16:06 -1.04
Football / Crawley Town v Crewe : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
19-May-24 13:00 19-May-24 15:02 0.52
Football / Sassuolo v Cagliari : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
19-May-24 11:30 19-May-24 13:22 -0.98
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL £147.16
CURRENT P&L = + £37.16
Yeah right, we have the "Summer Leagues", The Euros and MLS. There are still games in Serie A and La Liga.
Football never sleeps.
Ok so where are the stats for The Mongolian 2nd division
Well done yesterday Mark.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 20-May-2024 20:01
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-20 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-20 20:01
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £1.73
Total P&L: £1.73
Football
Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Salernitana v Verona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
20-May-24 17:30 20-May-24 19:27 1.42
Football / Salernitana v Verona : First Half Goals 1.5
20-May-24 17:30 20-May-24 18:20 0.31
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL £148.89
CURRENT P&L = +£38.89
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 21-May-2024 20:44
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-21 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-21 20:44
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £0.55
Total P&L: £0.55
Football
Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / IFK Goteborg v Mjallby : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 20:03 0.26
Football / AGF v FC Copenhagen : Match Odds
21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 19:59 2.71
Football / AGF v FC Copenhagen : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
21-May-24 18:00 21-May-24 18:50 -1.74
Football / Beroe Stara Za v Lokomotiv Sofia : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 16:45 21-May-24 17:29 0.66
Football / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Shandong Taishan : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
21-May-24 13:00 21-May-24 15:01 -0.29
Football / Nantong Zhiyun F.C v Cangzhou Mighty Lions : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 13:00 21-May-24 14:58 0.61
Football / Ho Chi Minh City v Cong An Nhan Dan : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 13:15 21-May-24 14:31 0.75
Football / Meizhou Hakka v Sichuan Jiuniu FC : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 12:00 21-May-24 13:57 -2.00
Football / Chungnam Asan v Suwon Bluewings : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 11:30 21-May-24 13:29 -1.49
Football / Quang Nam v Binh Duong : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
21-May-24 11:00 21-May-24 12:31 1.08
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL £149.44
CURRENT P&L = + £39.44
Still losses are a part of it, so let's just take it and move on.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 23-May-2024 09:48
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-22 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-22 23:48
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: -£7.01
Total P&L: -£7.01
Football
Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:53 -2.00
Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:53 -8.27
Football / Atalanta v Leverkusen : Match Odds
22-May-24 20:00 22-May-24 21:52 -1.42
Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 18:24 1.44
Football / VPS v KuPS : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
22-May-24 16:00 22-May-24 17:09 0.52
Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : First Half Goals 1.5
22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 16:43 1.17
Football / Ludogorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv : First Half Goals 0.5
22-May-24 16:30 22-May-24 16:42 0.52
Football / Qingdao Youth Island v Changchun Yatai : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
22-May-24 12:35 22-May-24 13:52 1.03
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL = £142.16
CURRENT P&L = +£32.16
@TheEdge949
That was a VERY odd game Mark. Good game actually, but very one-sided, especially considering that Leverkusen had not lost a game all season, 51 games I think.
And the result was not a fluke, Atalanta completely outplayed them, & in fact a star was born as Lookman scored THE most stunning hat-trick.
These games are gonna come along every now & then, as you well know.
Hopefully you'll still be doing this when the Euros come along, I think you'll do very well in those.
Good luck. You will have worse days than this one. And better ones than your best day to date.
Thanks Tony, thanks Phil. I absolutely intend trading the Euros as it will be the last really big chance to build my bank for the new season.
Last nights game showed that you need a coach and a team to be adaptable. Atalanta simply shut Leverkusen down with a high press and they couldn't change their style to counter it.
It reminded me of early Premier League Stoke when we played the really technical teams. Harass them, close them down and stop the flow and distribution.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 23-May-2024 22:03
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-23 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-23 22:03
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £2.94
Total P&L: £2.94
Football
Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Raith v Ross Co : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
23-May-24 20:00 23-May-24 21:58 -0.26
Football / Raith v Ross Co : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
23-May-24 20:00 23-May-24 21:58 0.09
Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
23-May-24 19:30 23-May-24 21:25 0.41
Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
23-May-24 19:30 23-May-24 21:03 1.10
Football / Al-Hilal v Al Taee : First Half Goals 1.5
23-May-24 19:00 23-May-24 19:45 0.36
Football / NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
23-May-24 17:45 23-May-24 19:40 2.67
Football / NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles : First Half Goals 1.5
23-May-24 17:45 23-May-24 18:32 -1.43
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL - £145.37
CURRENT P&L = + £35.37
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 24-May-2024 21:58
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-24 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-24 21:58
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £3.46
Total P&L: £3.46
Football
Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Girona v Granada : Over/Under 6.5 Goals
24-May-24 20:00 24-May-24 21:52 0.63
Football / Genoa v Bologna : Correct Score
24-May-24 19:45 24-May-24 21:39 2.37
Football / Austria Vienna v Hartberg : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
24-May-24 18:30 24-May-24 20:12 0.02
Football / Bodo Glimt v Kfum Oslo : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
24-May-24 18:00 24-May-24 19:54 1.13
Football / FK Javor Ivanjica v Zeleznicar Pancevo : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
24-May-24 17:30 24-May-24 19:05 1.04
Football / ENPPI v Ceramica Cleopatra : Match Odds
24-May-24 17:00 24-May-24 19:00 1.15
Football / Al Wehdat v Al Aqaba : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
24-May-24 17:00 24-May-24 18:54 -2.88
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL = £148.83
CURRENT P&L = + £38.83
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 25-May-2024 23:06
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-25 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-25 23:06
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: -£1.01
Total P&L: -£1.01
Football
Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Fredrikstad v Tromso : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
25-May-24 17:00 25-May-24 18:59 -1.62
Football / Juventus v AC Monza : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
25-May-24 17:00 25-May-24 18:59 0.60
Football / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
25-May-24 15:00 25-May-24 17:08 -0.63
Football / Randers v Vejle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
25-May-24 14:00 25-May-24 15:54 0.22
Football / Celtic v Rangers : First Half Goals 1.5
25-May-24 15:00 25-May-24 15:49 -1.00
Football / Wuhan Three Towns v Meizhou Hakka : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
25-May-24 13:00 25-May-24 14:57 0.32
Football / Osasuna v Villarreal : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
25-May-24 13:00 25-May-24 14:52 1.10
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL = £147.82
CURRENT P&L = + £37.82
Still taking those baby steps. Next target is a £180 bank when the stakes will increase slightly.
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 26-May-2024 23:23
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-26 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-26 23:23
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: £3.02
Total P&L: £3.02
Football
Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Empoli v Roma : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:45 0.27
Football / Frosinone v Udinese : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:44 0.41
Football / Lazio v Sassuolo : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 21:39 -0.33
Football / Verona v Inter : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
26-May-24 19:45 26-May-24 20:24 0.57
Football / Brondby v AGF : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
26-May-24 16:00 26-May-24 17:40 0.20
Football / Las Palmas v Alaves : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
26-May-24 15:15 26-May-24 17:14 0.16
Football / Leeds v Southampton : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
26-May-24 15:00 26-May-24 17:04 0.57
Football / Getafe v Mallorca : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
26-May-24 13:00 26-May-24 14:48 1.17
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL = £150.84
CURRENT P&L = +£40.84
Betting Profit & Loss
Mark Godwin 27-May-2024 22:05
Period:
Just for Today
(relates to event settlement date)
2024-05-27 00:00
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
2024-05-27 22:05
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Download to Spreadsheet ?
Football: -£0.77
Total P&L: -£0.77
Football
Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets
Market
Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bochum : Over/Under 5.5 Goals
27-May-24 19:30 27-May-24 21:27 4.75
Football / Slavia Sofia v CSKA 1948 Sofia : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:56 -0.62
Football / Trelleborgs v Sundsvall : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:52 0.16
Football / Norrkoping v Varnamo : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 19:49 0.11
Football / Al Nassr v Al-Ittihad : First Half Goals 1.5
27-May-24 19:00 27-May-24 19:49 -2.00
Football / Al Ahli v Al-Feiha : First Half Goals 1.5
27-May-24 19:00 27-May-24 19:48 -2.50
Football / Botev Plovdiv v Arda : First Half Goals 1.5
27-May-24 18:00 27-May-24 18:51 -0.79
Football / Lahti v SJK : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 17:58 2.18
Football / VPS v FC Inter : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 17:53 0.29
Football / Lahti v SJK : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
27-May-24 16:00 27-May-24 16:46 -2.76
Football / Pyramids v El Gounah : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
27-May-24 14:00 27-May-24 15:59 0.41
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.
CURRENT BAL - £150.07
CURRENT P&L = +£40.07