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TALKING TRADING - Weekly update

13

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  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Tried a new strategy with hunting goals, which failed miserably. Recovered most of it thanks to a triple overs trade on the Malmo game. Small loss, lessons learned. On to tomorrow.

    Betting Profit & Loss
    Mark Godwin 29-May-2024 00:10
    Period:
    Just for Today

    (relates to event settlement date)

    2024-05-28 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
    2024-05-29 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
    Download to Spreadsheet ?
    Football: -£1.37
    Total P&L: -£1.37
    Football
    Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
    Market
    Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
    Football / Malmo FF v Elfsborg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    28-May-24 18:00 28-May-24 19:59 0.65
    Football / Malmo FF v Elfsborg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    28-May-24 18:00 28-May-24 19:59 0.55
    Football / Malmo FF v Elfsborg : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    28-May-24 18:00 28-May-24 19:20 0.75
    Football / AS Khroub v USM Annaba : Over/Under 0.5 Goals
    28-May-24 16:00 28-May-24 17:53 -1.25
    Football / Gimcheon Sangmu v FC Seoul : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    28-May-24 11:30 28-May-24 13:23 -0.82
    Football / Gimcheon Sangmu v FC Seoul : Over/Under 0.5 Goals
    28-May-24 11:30 28-May-24 13:23 -1.25
    Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

    All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.

    CURRENT BAL = £148.70

    CURRENT P&L = + £38.70
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Just the 1 game tonight.

    Betting Profit & Loss
    Mark Godwin 29-May-2024 22:55
    Period:
    Just for Today

    (relates to event settlement date)

    2024-05-29 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
    2024-05-29 22:55

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
    Download to Spreadsheet ?
    Football: £4.65
    Total P&L: £4.65
    Football
    Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
    Market
    Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Extra Time
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 22:41 1.18
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 21:58 5.21
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Match Odds
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 21:58 -0.85
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 21:57 -0.36
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 21:57 -0.25
    Football / Olympiakos v Fiorentina : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    29-May-24 20:00 29-May-24 21:57 -0.28
    Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

    All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.

    CURRENT BAL = £153.35

    CURRENT P&L = + £43.35
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    America, Poland, Turkey and Iceland on todays tour of obscure football resulting in another small profit.

    Betting Profit & Loss
    Mark Godwin 30-May-2024 23:57
    Period:
    Just for Today

    (relates to event settlement date)

    2024-05-30 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
    2024-05-30 23:57

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
    Download to Spreadsheet ?
    Football: £3.76
    Total P&L: £3.76
    Football
    Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
    Market
    Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
    Football / Breidablik v Vikingur Reykjavik : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    30-May-24 21:15 30-May-24 23:06 -0.66
    Football / Sakaryaspor v BB Bodrumspor : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    30-May-24 18:00 30-May-24 20:05 0.77
    Football / Sakaryaspor v BB Bodrumspor : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    30-May-24 18:00 30-May-24 20:05 0.70
    Football / Sakaryaspor v BB Bodrumspor : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    30-May-24 18:00 30-May-24 19:44 0.98
    Football / Cartusia Kartuzy v Unia Swarzedz : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    30-May-24 14:00 30-May-24 15:40 0.86
    Football / New York Red Bulls v Charlotte FC : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    30-May-24 00:30 30-May-24 03:27 1.11
    Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

    All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.

    CURRENT BAL = £157.11

    CURRENT P&L = +£ 47.11
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Rollercoaster of a session today sees nearly £3 wiped off the books. Bad game selection and some shoddy research was the main culprit. That and forgetting that I was in a market which resulted in not trading out a position when in profit and ending up with a losing trade. Stupid newbie error.

    Betting Profit & Loss
    Mark Godwin 31-May-2024 22:31
    Period:
    Just for Today

    (relates to event settlement date)

    2024-05-31 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
    2024-05-31 22:31

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
    Download to Spreadsheet ?
    Football: -£2.96
    Total P&L: -£2.96
    Football
    Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets
    Market
    Start time Settled date Profit/Loss (£)
    Football / Thun v Grasshoppers Zurich : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    31-May-24 19:30 31-May-24 21:25 -2.45
    Football / Slovenia (W) v Latvia (W) : Correct Score
    31-May-24 17:00 31-May-24 20:08 1.55
    Football / FC Copenhagen v Randers : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    31-May-24 18:00 31-May-24 20:01 0.52
    Football / FC Copenhagen v Randers : Over/Under 5.5 Goals
    31-May-24 18:00 31-May-24 20:01 -3.24
    Football / AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    31-May-24 18:00 31-May-24 19:56 -0.47
    Football / Czech Republic (W) v Belgium (W) : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    31-May-24 17:30 31-May-24 19:13 0.86
    Football / Serbia (W) v Slovakia (W) : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    31-May-24 17:00 31-May-24 19:00 0.49
    Football / Norway (W) v Italy (W) : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    31-May-24 17:00 31-May-24 18:54 -0.81
    Football / FC Copenhagen v Randers : First Half Goals 1.5
    31-May-24 18:00 31-May-24 18:16 1.66
    Football / Madura Utd v Persib Bandung : Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    31-May-24 13:00 31-May-24 14:56 -0.77
    Football / Madura Utd v Persib Bandung : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    31-May-24 13:00 31-May-24 14:51 -0.63
    Football / Madura Utd v Persib Bandung : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    31-May-24 13:00 31-May-24 14:46 -0.21
    Football / Nam Dinh v Song Lam Nghe An : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    31-May-24 12:00 31-May-24 13:41 0.48
    Football / Daejeon Korail FC v Ulsan Citizen FC : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    31-May-24 11:00 31-May-24 12:47 0.06
    Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

    All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.

    CURRENT BAL = £154.15

    CURRENT P&L = +£44.15
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Well yesterday I learned a lesson. A lesson that nearly took my bank.

    I like to look for games where the market has in my opinion got the over 5.5 goals price wrong. It's not a sexy market but having trawled through lots of games I found one in Bhutan or some such place and put in my lay bet of £10 with a liability of £120 should I be wrong.

    The game started and the plan was simple, out after 10 minutes with a profit if no goal is scored.

    Problem 1 becomes evident after just a couple of minutes, the live info match view is displaying "limited coverage only". Ok I can exit for a scratch trade here because I don't fancy anything with delayed info.

    Next thing I know is the time stamp jumps forward to minute 9 and there's a goal. To make it worse the market goes suspended and I can't trade out. "No no no", this isn't happening. Except it is and when the chaos finally clears some 5 minutes later the time stamp is now showing 19 minutes and there's 3 goals in total been scored.

    By now I just want to get out but either the market is suspended, my trade outs are "unsuccessful" or the prices keep changing.

    The market finally settles down after half an hour, it's 2 - 3, I'm stuck so deep that trading out is not feasible any more. The prices are never correct because of the sketchy coverage and it's going to be a lesson hard learned.

    I spent the next hour waiting for the inevitable, it never came. The market price didn't move either so trading out for a lesser loss wasn't an option, when the screen went suspended at the end it was a heart thumper. Had there been a late goal or was it full time.

    Full time and somehow I had got away with it.

    It was certainly an eye opener about picking the right games. Not only does the research have to be good but also ensuring that a steady flow of up to date information is vital. Just for the record these two teams had the lowest goals scored, goals conceded and XG in the league. Hmm, whatever.

    A loss on the day of £1.68

    CURRENT BAL = £152.47
    CURRENT P&L = + £42.47
  • JammyFkerJammyFker Member Posts: 394
    Betting on markets u have no idea about is really betting rookie 101 and why so many punters are losers. I have done this myself in the past just punting on things just to that old phrase - get back to evens.

    I am glad you did not lose the bank though B)
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    JammyFker said:

    Betting on markets u have no idea about is really betting rookie 101 and why so many punters are losers. I have done this myself in the past just punting on things just to that old phrase - get back to evens.

    I am glad you did not lose the bank though B)

    Cheers buddy

    It wasn't the market particularly, I'd done research on the 2 teams and the criteria for the market was met. this was a game where over 3.5 goals was not very likely, over 4.5 goals almost never happening and over 5.5 about as Likely as a Tory victory at the election

    It wasn't even the fluctuations, that's why exit strategies exist. I'm quite prepared to trade out for a loss when the market moves against me.

    It was my failure to understand what "limited coverage" meant. thank the Lord that it didn't cost me £120 to find out. It means delayed information, which causes a traffic jam when the prices move and people are trying to get in or out of markets. This means that by the time your order is next up the price has moved again so the trade is unsuccessful. then the market freezes again and its rinse and repeat.

    On the flip side had I backed over 2.5, 3.5 which in reality was the better value I would have been quids in thanks to the glitches.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Betting Profit & Loss
    Mark Godwin 03-Jun-2024 01:38
    Period:
    Just for Today

    (relates to event settlement date)

    2024-06-02 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
    2024-06-03 00:00

    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
    Download to Spreadsheet ?
    Football: £1.71
    Total P&L: £1.71

    Not much today, a small profit.

    CURRENT BAL = £154.18 CURRENT P&L = + £44.18
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Ok I kind of realised that just posting daily P&L columns is not only boring but probably narcissistic to boot so I've decided that a weekly update complete, with any anecdotes, will suffice.

    These will be posted on a Monday or Tuesday depending on whether I'm doing something more fun at the time.

    Quick update is that thanks to Germany not being very efficient and England being efficient but too late the bankroll took some serious damage. The perfect £135 isn't down to great maths, I simply took the odd 79p and had a crazy lay bet where the liability was only 79p but the possible returns were £79. Needless to say the lay at 1.01 didn't result in a win

    STARTING BAL = £110.00
    CURRENT BAL = £135.00

    P&L = + £25.00
  • JammyFkerJammyFker Member Posts: 394
    Keep knocking @TheEdge949 and GL in the upcoming weeks/months B)
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Okay, Wed 5th June. I have 3 positions open pre kick off for the Norwegian Division 1 game Egersund V Asane.

    3 minutes before kick off the markets all go suspended and stay that way, after an age I finally get through to the online help who then shunt me from person to person until I eventually get told that the markets are suspended due to poor coverage.

    Well that's dubious as I'm watching said game on their live stream and it's no worse or better than usual. I inform them of this and get told that they took the decision not to offer in play on the game and that all bets will be settled at full time.

    I remind them that that doesn't help the customers holding 50% of the£25,000 matched that might want to be exiting positions that are against them and that effectively all money has now transitioned into sportsbook bets.

    They argued that they were still exchange bets not sportsbook due to the different odds and that all that was different was the non ability to trade those positions.

    So, my losses amounted to £15 which were 3 £5 positions, but some trades were in the hundreds of pounds, those guys must have been tearing hair out.

    I wonder what the real reason for withdrawing the in play was.
  • rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,430
    Funny you should say that, I've traded on few Norwegian lower league games and they seem to to get suspended frequently.
    I don't go near them any more, can cost you plenty.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Ok well current available balance is £105 mainly due to the fact that I have some open positions on the Euro 24 market so potential liability is not available to trade.

    Nothing major to report as I've steered clear of the friendly markets because teams are not exactly committed this close to a tournament.

    I have avoided backing England as they are way too short and there's more profit to be made by backing them to win the group and then just rolling up winnings at each of the knockout games if you think they are going to win it.

    Had a few trades on the Asian and African WC 2026 qualifiers but there are very few competitive games really, 1/8 favourites and 2/5 on over 2.5 goals doesnt exactly leave much tradability.

    That's it for now.

    Until next week, be lucky.
  • MP33MP33 Member Posts: 6,300

    JammyFker said:

    Betting on markets u have no idea about is really betting rookie 101 and why so many punters are losers. I have done this myself in the past just punting on things just to that old phrase - get back to evens.

    I am glad you did not lose the bank though B)

    Cheers buddy

    It wasn't the market particularly, I'd done research on the 2 teams and the criteria for the market was met. this was a game where over 3.5 goals was not very likely, over 4.5 goals almost never happening and over 5.5 about as Likely as a Tory victory at the election

    It wasn't even the fluctuations, that's why exit strategies exist. I'm quite prepared to trade out for a loss when the market moves against me.

    It was my failure to understand what "limited coverage" meant. thank the Lord that it didn't cost me £120 to find out. It means delayed information, which causes a traffic jam when the prices move and people are trying to get in or out of markets. This means that by the time your order is next up the price has moved again so the trade is unsuccessful. then the market freezes again and its rinse and repeat.

    On the flip side had I backed over 2.5, 3.5 which in reality was the better value I would have been quids in thanks to the glitches.

    Just curious as to where you do your research for Bhutani football?
  • rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,430
    FBREF is quite a good site.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    It's been a while.

    Current BR sits at £122 with not a lot of trading due to time constraints and the subsequent inability to monitor games in progress.

    Might trade later tonight with some Euro and Copa America action.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    B/R now at £133 plus change. Portugal's inability to hit the net cost me a few quid last night. Still having fun though.

    Couple of Copa America games to look at later tonight/tomorrow.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    Creep and go is the name of the game right now. Avoiding the pre season stuff as it's all a bit volatile, unpredictable and really awful value. The CL EL and ECL qualifiers are all a bit too who, what, where to trade with any confidence although second leg goals markets may offer some decent spots.

    B/R now at £140 with a couple of positions outstanding on the Scottish Open golf.

    Not going to get the £200 bankroll I wanted for the start of the season but not to worry, the increase in televised EFL games can only mean more opportunities to trade games with full coverage.

    Think I may take all the profit to date and go for a decent trade on Sundays final. Can't see past the Spanish if I'm honest but you never know, England have found a way every game.

    With Spain currently at 2.56 or 8/5 and England at 3.6 or 13/5 the goals markets might be better for a positive outcome with over 1.5 to back @ 1.53 and over 2.5 to back @ 2.62.

    So say a £25 position on over 1.5 and a £15 position on over 2.5 and trade both out for profit in the event of a first half goal. The big question is do I back or lay, do I back over1.5 and lay under2.5, back both, or lay both. Ahh, the trials and tribulations of trading.

    Whatever, have fun.

  • rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,430
    Ah noticed a thing in yesterday's SLC, there were about a dozen games or so, and about an hour before kick-off, one game Annan v ICT had traded about £70,000 mostly on Annan, the next highest traded was on the Motherwell geme about £3,000.

    Annan had been traded from about 3.5 to 2.5 then went back oot to 3.2 so ah backed them and heho Annan score, traded oot at 1.64 for a nice we profit.
    It was an awful lot of money traded for a geme like that.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,686
    That was a good spot Rab. Indicators like that are great when you pick up on them. Agree that £70k traded is a lot for that type of game and your actions were perfect given the market trends.

    As far as the Euros go well.

    I've been as good as my word and gone for the over 1.5 goals and the over 2.5 goals for £20 and £15 respectively the other £5 has gone on Declan rice to get a card.

    That's my full 40% profit on the line here. Back to £100 bankroll if this all turns to mush.

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