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TALKING TRADING - EURO 2024 - ENGLAND TOO SHORT ?
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,597
Am I missing something here or are we actually the best team in Europe. These are the current outright winner exchange prices to back for the top 10 teams.
England 4.1
France 5.4
Germany 6.6
Portugal 9.2
Spain 10
Italy 19
Netherlands 21
Belgium 24
Croatia 50
Denmark 70
I realise that there are still 2 weeks to go until the tournament starts but there's already £930,000 matched in this market alone which would suggest that either we are better than I think we are or that jingoistic punters really believe that 3/1 -16/5 represents value.
I'm assuming that as the final squads for each team have still to be confirmed that much of this is either speculation or hope, as certainly using historical data would lead to a different conclusion. Out of that top 10 only ourselves, Belgium and Croatia have failed to win it and Spain, Italy, Germany and France have also bagged the World Cup.
There will almost certainly be a market that will be tradable on every game during Euro 2024, that's where I shall be concentrating rather than outright winner, semi finalist, last 8 markets. There are trading opportunities in these but the swings are to great for my liking.
E.G. Scotland are just over evens (although 4th faves) to qualify from their group, one loss and that's no trade out left. It's almost a straight bet.
Anyway, why do you think England are such a short price ? genuine favourites or just overhyped.
England 4.1
France 5.4
Germany 6.6
Portugal 9.2
Spain 10
Italy 19
Netherlands 21
Belgium 24
Croatia 50
Denmark 70
I realise that there are still 2 weeks to go until the tournament starts but there's already £930,000 matched in this market alone which would suggest that either we are better than I think we are or that jingoistic punters really believe that 3/1 -16/5 represents value.
I'm assuming that as the final squads for each team have still to be confirmed that much of this is either speculation or hope, as certainly using historical data would lead to a different conclusion. Out of that top 10 only ourselves, Belgium and Croatia have failed to win it and Spain, Italy, Germany and France have also bagged the World Cup.
There will almost certainly be a market that will be tradable on every game during Euro 2024, that's where I shall be concentrating rather than outright winner, semi finalist, last 8 markets. There are trading opportunities in these but the swings are to great for my liking.
E.G. Scotland are just over evens (although 4th faves) to qualify from their group, one loss and that's no trade out left. It's almost a straight bet.
Anyway, why do you think England are such a short price ? genuine favourites or just overhyped.
Comments
That price is to short, should be more like 6/1-13/2. For me France have the best overall squad and are the team to beat
About 20 years ago some friends of mine started what I thought was rather a clever betting syndicate.
Their best market was tennis. Because there are only 2 possible outcomes for the Winner. There are no Draws. And they worked out that where, say, a well-known and popular French tennis player was playing a well-known British tennis player, they could back the Frenchman here and the Brit in France, both at slight odds against. A guaranteed win.
But there was only a short-lived sweet spot between National Markets being opened up to non-Nationals, and Bookmakers realising that they were leaving themselves exposed.
Now? There are occasions when a Bookmaker may adjust odds. But it is always within the "round". The best you can hope for is the opportunity to make that round smaller. It always exists. Because you are betting against the bookmaker.
Whereas some "exchanges" follow rules closer to poker in a casino. As opposed to slots in a casino. In that they take a cut. And leave it (or at least more of it) to the gamblers to sort out what odds should apply. Which means that there are more opportunities.
England favourites to win? Don't make me laugh. Lively outsider. Plenty of placed finishes, but tendency to fade in the final furlong. At best.
One reason I hate bookmakers is that they want both sides of the pie. Winners accounts restricted, winning punters banned, winning methods not tolerated. You don't even need to be a winner, once their algorithm flags you as a bettor who only ever takes value then your time is up.
The real joke is that bookies could use these punters to identify situations where the market is giving up value and adjust, but no, it's just easier to restrict the account holder to 50p singles only.
Exchanges have no such qualms. The one I use charges 5% commission on winning bets and trades . Admittedly there are higher bands of commission for professional and high stakes bettors and traders but if you're making a living doing it I would imagine you've factored that into your stats.
103.2% back and 99.6% lay on the outright market is the current round up as I type this. I'll wager that's fantastic compared to the Bookies.
The problem is that bookies and sportsbooks hype the mug bets. Accas, request a bet, bet builders and such like. Punters love them without realising that the odds are terrible.
Unfortunately Joe Public love them and they make up a huge part of a sportsbooks income.
Exchanges don't have the capability or need for multiples, and that is why many people are happy to get ripped off by the sportsbooks. They want their weekly 10 team acca, the thing they don't realise is that the bookies want them to have their weekly 10 team acca as well.
If it's a bet the bookie wants you to place then long term, it's a loser.
We all have our own ideas as to the best English formation. And he is absolutely right that the only opinion that counts is Southgate's. That said, we have 2 world class Number 10s. And, IMHO they have to play in the Knockout stages. We have a weak Group-coming 1st should not be a problem. It is from there the problems start.
A lot will depend on the fitness of Walker and particularly Shaw. We have a lot of good Right Backs, but various are injured/unavailable. And precious few Left Backs-of which only a barely fit Shaw is available.
If Shaw breaks down, suspect Plan B is a 3-4-2-1. Something like:-
Pickford; Stones, Maguire, Walker; Saka, Rice, Mainoo/Gallagher, TAA; Foden, Bellingham; Kane. Where Foden and Bellingham take it in turns being wide/central.
Whatever the system, we are a 7 or an 8-not a 4.1. We have 3 or 4 excellent players. 3 or 4 very good players. And glaring deficiencies.
We are not a 1.8/1.9 against France. We are a 2.2/2.3. Saliba cannot get into the French team-if he were English he would be the first Defender on the team sheet. And there are several teams that we would be a 1.8 or 1.9 against. And we are going to have to beat at least 3 of them.
I hope England will do well. We are 1 of a group of about 8 teams with serious hopes of winning it. But favourites? No.
7/2 is a joke for a side who are no better than Portugal, Belgium, or Italy, and worse than Germany, France, or Spain.
Scotland have not had a decent side since the 1970s and i can see them coming home early.
I have had a few quid each way on Portugal at 8/1 and also bet them at 13/2 to be the highest scoring team.
At best, England are a side that are little better than Belgium or Italy. May be a little better (but are probably about the same odds) as Portugal, Germany or Spain. And weaker than France.
And 7/2 looks just as ridiculous. It is essentially for a 5-timer. Where the Singles odds are probably 1/10, 1/2, Evs, Evs, and 6/4. Which is way, way longer than 7/2.
Scotland? A year ago you were building a decent side. The best Scotland side since the mid-80s. Now? Gone backwards alarmingly. Partly due to some players losing form. And a number of injuries. Could be a tough watch. I hope not.
Thats a bit harsh.
I,d take 7/2 right now on England. Not sure they,ll reach that again
PS Also think we,ve got a much better bench than last time and subs will be huge again
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2024/winner
So-for now at least-7/2 looks like a good price. It is 3/1 now. And if England finish top of the Group and get, say, Austria in the last 16 it will drop still further. And would be a perfect time to bet against England. Who would (in reality) still be a 7/1 shot.
The Euros have a history of longshot winners-Denmark and Greece, anyone? Both won it with poor teams. Unlike England. Who never have.
Teams apart from England that seem poor odds? Germany and Belgium (the latter's squad looks like it would lose 5-0 to Belgium of 5 years ago).
Portugal and Spain look decent odds. As do Italy-long odds for the reigning Champions (who may well have won the last one with a worse team than they have now).
Should be fun
Really? I was doing some stats last night and at best England would win it 12 times if you played it 100 times over. That is 12% or 17/2 or decimal 9.5
That's where both Portugal and Spain sit and that seems about right. If I had the money to cover the liability laying England at 4.3 would be the biggest lay value out there.
The bookmakers do not give a toss who wins as they price up and take bets to win overall as usual no matter what team wins the competition
Have to admit it is a bit worrying when you see Maguires name still on the teamsheet
Looking at the bet history some £48 got matched at 11 when for some reason the price spiked. Now that's value.
Currently £1.6m in the market of which £600k is on England.
It is about 22 times.
Still ridiculous. Just not as ridiculous.
Yep 22.2222222.
Physics was never my best subject.
Tourney to open up quite fast with lots of goals - over 2.5 market good in group stage.
Consider the draw in the 1X2 coupons in a lot of games, over a tad of value as most fans bet on the team they want to win.
Consider the under 2.5 goals in a lot of the knockout rounds and the draw.
Additionally - Backing the draw in all knockout stage matches at both the Euros and World Cup since 1998 has yielded significant profits. For instance, betting a single unit on the draw in each of the 58 Euro and 90 World Cup knockout stage matches since 1998 would have resulted in a profit of just under 46 units, representing an ROI of 28%. Do the research on the teams though - never place bets solely on historical trends.
There will always be an upset or 5 over the couple of weeks, so worth keeping an eye on nations that are under-rated and never pile into a short odds favourite expecting a whitewash. Rarely does these pan out as expected with most teams in the competition worthy of at least holding their own against any team. The +1 and +2 markets can be very lucrative for this very reason again not every game, but worth keeping an eye on.
Teams coming in with good qualification form usually continue this trend and are worth following in the group stages. A total of 14 nations were profitable when supported at even stakes throughout the qualification group stage for the 2024 Euros, with Scotland delivering the most significant results of just over +6.00u profit. Spain 5/6 vs Croatia - Holland 4/6 vs Poland. England 1/2 vs Serbia. Portugal 6/11 vs Czech R. (reverse on Croatia 4/7 vs Albania big tourney experience) France 4/9 vs Poland Portugal 2/5 vs Georgia