Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
I was making the point that surely the right wing MP supporters of Jenrick, and Badenoch, would prefer one or the other, rather than Cleverly. Isnt it therefore down to their supporters, rather than them. The fact that Badenoch wins, and Jenrick loses against Cleverly, amongst the members means if you preferred a right wing leader it is pointless voting for Jenrick. If there is to be any skulduggery, today is the day.
Maybe I am wrong, but I got the feeling that Cleverly is favourite as he is nailed on to reach the final two. Whereas neither of the other two are guaranteed to even get there, and there was only one vote between them yesterday. It will be interesting to see the odds after the vote today. I was thinking that it may be similar to say an FA Cup. Where one semi final has been played, so one team is through to the final. They may be favourites, even though the best team may be in the other semi. The best team may well become favourites, but only after winning their semi.
James Cleverly 5/4 Kemi Badenoch 7/4 Robert Jenrick 7/2
Next Tory Leader Odds: Who will be final two candidates in Leadership Contest?
We will soon find out the final two in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory party leader.
At 3:30 this afternoon, MPs will decide the final two candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory party leader after Tom Tugendhat was knocked out of the race yesterday.
Tugendhat received 20 votes, 10 short of third placed Kemi Badenoch who comes into today’s round alongside Robert Jenrick (31 votes) and the firm favourite with the bookmakers, James Cleverly, who reinforced his position at the head of the market with 39 votes.
Once the final two candidates are selected this afternoon, the leadership will go to a vote by party membership over the next three weeks.
The new Tory leader will be announced on 2nd November.
Next Conservative Leader Odds Next Conservative Leader Best Odds Worst Odds James Cleverly 5/4 17/20 Kemi Badenoch 6/4 11/10 Robert Jenrick 11/2 16/5
Tory Leadership Contest
The fight for the final two will go down to which of Jenrick or Badenoch can attract more of Tugendhat’s voters. With 39 votes, Cleverly is just one short of the magic 40 mark (121 remaining MPs) needed to guarantee his place.
It’s been an incredible last week or so for Cleverly, who went from 10/1 into 7/2 this time last week and now finds himself odds on with several bookmakers (best price 5/4 William Hill) offering UK politics odds through oddschecker.
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
The leadership contest has become a real overnight battle after Cleverly’s third round victory
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
How on earth did that happen?
Cleverly lost 2 votes from yesterday, and all of Tugendhats votes went to Jenrick, and Badenoch?
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
How on earth did that happen?
Cleverly lost 2 votes from yesterday, and all of Tugendhats votes went to Jenrick, and Badenoch?
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
How on earth did that happen?
Cleverly lost 2 votes from yesterday, and all of Tugendhats votes went to Jenrick, and Badenoch?
Tugendhat's voters would probably be more likely to go to Cleverly.
More likely that the MPs have decided that the ultimate winner was not going to be Cleverly, and have changed sides. Because MPs tend to concentrate on what is best for themselves.
Has all the makings of a particularly nasty contest now-should be fun
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
How on earth did that happen?
Cleverly lost 2 votes from yesterday, and all of Tugendhats votes went to Jenrick, and Badenoch?
Tugendhat's voters would probably be more likely to go to Cleverly.
More likely that the MPs have decided that the ultimate winner was not going to be Cleverly, and have changed sides. Because MPs tend to concentrate on what is best for themselves.
Has all the makings of a particularly nasty contest now-should be fun
Most interesting bit in that article was the prediction that Members would vote for Cleverly over Jenrick.
Normally, I would say no chance. When in doubt, they would normally go for whoever is furthest to the Right.
But there is going to be a lot of pressure put on those Members. Last time in this position, they went for the hapless Right winger that was Truss. Jenrick is 42. He has never held any of the great offices of state. And everything about him suggests he is a lot worse at walking the walk than talking the talk.
I think the Members are going to be threatened with the loss of their voting rights should they not vote for Cleverly if he wins the MP vote by a wide margin, particularly if the majority (60/61) endorse him.
Does that mean that it may be possible for the Badenoch team to get Jenrick to drop out. If that was the case then there is no Cleverly majority, and Badenoch wins amongst the members. Jenrick staying in and beating Badenoch in the next vote, would seem to only help Cleverly.
That's not the way politics normally works.
Your starting point is that any politician places their policies above their personal ambitions. It doesn't work like that.
It is much more akin to Formula 1. Where drivers pretend they want their team-mate to do well. Whereas, in reality, they would rather absolutely anyone else won. Because they can come up with all sorts of reasons why, say, a Mercedes driver loses to a Red Bull driver. But not their own team-mate.
If either Badenoch or Jenrick are not the next leader, then they would want it to be Cleverly. Because they would then be far more likely to be next but one leader.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, or Jenrick, it can only be Cleverly. If the Tories win the next election, the next but one leader may be a long way off.
Assuming that the candidates popularity amongst members is Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick. Then would the MPs on the right would prefer Jenrick to drop out, or maybe less obviously encourage some of the MPs that support him to switch to Badenoch. It would seem that the only thing that the MPs on the right have to do is to ensure that Badenoch beats Jenrick in todays vote, in order to get their preferred choice of leader.
No. Maybe it is me not making it clear.
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly. If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that 2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
How on earth did that happen?
Cleverly lost 2 votes from yesterday, and all of Tugendhats votes went to Jenrick, and Badenoch?
Tugendhat's voters would probably be more likely to go to Cleverly.
More likely that the MPs have decided that the ultimate winner was not going to be Cleverly, and have changed sides. Because MPs tend to concentrate on what is best for themselves.
Has all the makings of a particularly nasty contest now-should be fun
It should
Kemi Badenoch 1/2 Robert Jenrick 7/4
Mark Francois thinks there is a clear dividing line. Leave or Remain, but this time it is the ECHR.
Comments
If the next leader is not Jenrick, it will be Badenoch or Cleverly.
If the next leader is not Badenoch, it will be Jenrick or Cleverly.
And, in either of those scenarios, Jenrick or Badenoch would prefer Cleverly.
Meanwhile, all the Candidates are trying to maximise their chances of either
1. Winning; or failing that
2. For Badenoch/Jenrick ensuring that the other doesn't win
Cleverly's job is relatively simple. His main aim should be trying to put as much clear water as he can, ideally getting 50%+ of the total vote
Whereas the other 2 are trying to stuff the other, without alienating their supporters.
And the Bookies seem to believe that they are too close to 1 another in terms of votes, making Cleverly's job easier.
Isnt it therefore down to their supporters, rather than them.
The fact that Badenoch wins, and Jenrick loses against Cleverly, amongst the members means if you preferred a right wing leader it is pointless voting for Jenrick.
If there is to be any skulduggery, today is the day.
Maybe I am wrong, but I got the feeling that Cleverly is favourite as he is nailed on to reach the final two.
Whereas neither of the other two are guaranteed to even get there, and there was only one vote between them yesterday.
It will be interesting to see the odds after the vote today.
I was thinking that it may be similar to say an FA Cup.
Where one semi final has been played, so one team is through to the final.
They may be favourites, even though the best team may be in the other semi.
The best team may well become favourites, but only after winning their semi.
5/4
Kemi Badenoch
7/4
Robert Jenrick
7/2
We will soon find out the final two in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory party leader.
At 3:30 this afternoon, MPs will decide the final two candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory party leader after Tom Tugendhat was knocked out of the race yesterday.
Tugendhat received 20 votes, 10 short of third placed Kemi Badenoch who comes into today’s round alongside Robert Jenrick (31 votes) and the firm favourite with the bookmakers, James Cleverly, who reinforced his position at the head of the market with 39 votes.
Once the final two candidates are selected this afternoon, the leadership will go to a vote by party membership over the next three weeks.
The new Tory leader will be announced on 2nd November.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
Next Conservative Leader Best Odds Worst Odds
James Cleverly 5/4 17/20
Kemi Badenoch 6/4 11/10
Robert Jenrick 11/2 16/5
Tory Leadership Contest
The fight for the final two will go down to which of Jenrick or Badenoch can attract more of Tugendhat’s voters. With 39 votes, Cleverly is just one short of the magic 40 mark (121 remaining MPs) needed to guarantee his place.
It’s been an incredible last week or so for Cleverly, who went from 10/1 into 7/2 this time last week and now finds himself odds on with several bookmakers (best price 5/4 William Hill) offering UK politics odds through oddschecker.
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20241009-next-tory-leader-odds-who-will-be-final-two-candidates-in-leadership-contest
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/09/the-leadership-contest-has-become-a-real-overnight-battle-after-cleverlys-third-round-victory/
Robert Jenrick 2/1
More likely that the MPs have decided that the ultimate winner was not going to be Cleverly, and have changed sides. Because MPs tend to concentrate on what is best for themselves.
Has all the makings of a particularly nasty contest now-should be fun
Kemi Badenoch 1/2
Robert Jenrick 7/4
Leave or Remain, but this time it is the ECHR.
To think about leaving.
Or leave without thinking
How Right Wing to you have to be to despise human rights?
Wow. Just wow.
Incredible, isn't it?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-civil-war-erupts-again-less-than-two-hours-after-mps-pivot-to-the-hard-right/ar-AA1rYtYV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=e634530b2fc84bc7bb03dc3aed70a925&ei=14#fullscreen
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/the-new-tory-leader-will-be-badenoch-or-jenrick-either-would-be-a-one-way-ticket-to-another-political-planet/ar-AA1rYvxd?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=810f6f66aaf04c70a8f769a1af96e838&ei=9#fullscreen
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/****-rather-conspiracy-likely-cause-172706618.html