The Guardian view on the Conservative leadership contest: normality is not on the ballot
None of this is original. Conservatives have been complaining about high rates of immigration, burdensome taxes and an overmighty state for generations. Those obsessions drove the party’s agenda in government for 14 years – and still they were evicted from office. The two candidates to lead the Conservatives in opposition represent different strands of the same failed ideological complex. Neither has shown a hint of contrition for a dismal record in office and neither looks fit to bring the party back to a position where it might once again be trusted to govern the country.
The Conservative Party lost more than two thirds of its MPs between the 2019 and 2024 elections. It lost 251 Seats.
It lost 246 of those 251 to Parties to the Left of its position. A considerable Majority to Labour. Of those remaining, an even more sizeable Majority to the Lib Dems.
It lost a grand total of 5 of its 251 lost Seats to a Party to the Right of it-Reform.
It clearly believes that it needs to lurch further to the Right.
And apparently believes that 5 is a much bigger number than 246.
The Conservative Party lost more than two thirds of its MPs between the 2019 and 2024 elections. It lost 251 Seats.
It lost 246 of those 251 to Parties to the Left of its position. A considerable Majority to Labour. Of those remaining, an even more sizeable Majority to the Lib Dems.
It lost a grand total of 5 of its 251 lost Seats to a Party to the Right of it-Reform.
It clearly believes that it needs to lurch further to the Right.
And apparently believes that 5 is a much bigger number than 246.
Good point. Somebody famous said the other day, general elections are won from the centre ground.
The Conservative Party lost more than two thirds of its MPs between the 2019 and 2024 elections. It lost 251 Seats.
It lost 246 of those 251 to Parties to the Left of its position. A considerable Majority to Labour. Of those remaining, an even more sizeable Majority to the Lib Dems.
It lost a grand total of 5 of its 251 lost Seats to a Party to the Right of it-Reform.
It clearly believes that it needs to lurch further to the Right.
And apparently believes that 5 is a much bigger number than 246.
Good point. Somebody famous said the other day, general elections are won from the centre ground.
Overconfident Cleverly supporters may have lost their candidate a place in the last two
Well, they say the Conservative Party is the most sophisticated and duplicitous electorate there is, and in this case, these two characteristics collided with devastating results for Mr Cleverly.
Piecing together nuggets from different camps, it looks like in Tuesday's round Mr Cleverly's figures were a bit inflated by Jenrick backers flipping to him to help his momentum and slow Ms Badenoch's.
But regardless of that, you would have expected Mr Cleverly as the only moderate left in the race to pick up Tom Tugendhat's supporters.
That didn't happen.
What seems to have happened instead is that some of the Cleverly supporters convinced their man was nailed on for the final two, flipped support to try to stop one of the other contenders and in doing so killed off their own candidate.
Meanwhile, Mr Jenrick called every single Tugendhat supporter to ask for their support, arguing - as he did on Sky News on Wednesday morning ahead of the vote - that Mr Cleverly was home and dry.
I also hear that Ms Badenoch hoovered up a number of Tugendhat votes by promising flippers the reward of shadow cabinet posts.
The upsum of all of it was they won out.
Now, whoever wins, a right-winger will be leading the Conservative Party.
"A civil servant called me just after the vote came in, and said 'that's the general election gone for you then'," said one Cleverly supporter.
Whether Mr Cleverly could have, in the end, edged past the right-wing candidate is an unknown.
But what this result does do is rob a big chunk of the Conservative electorate of a moderate choice, which may well displease some.
As for the bigger question about the future of the party, the result could help the Conservatives fend off the threat of Reform on its right flank, but there are serious doubts among many Tories about whether either Ms Badenoch or Mr Jenrick can reach beyond the Conservative Party and Reform voters to be a serious threat to Labour or rebuild with those who left them for the Lib Dems.
You can see why Sir Keir Starmer, after a punishing few weeks, finally has something to smile about.
James Cleverly warned MPs that tactical votes could kill his leadership hopes
Lord Goodman of Wycombe, the former Tory MP and commentator, writes for the Observer online today that there are dangerous precedents for the party of such a split. “These percentages were eerily reminiscent of the 2001 Conservative leadership election, in which the eventual winner, Iain Duncan Smith, gained only 33% of his colleagues’s votes in the final ballot,” he writes. “His leadership didn’t end well.”
There was immediate anger and despair from many senior Tories after the result was announced, with several predicting that neither of the final two candidates would actually contest a general election. “This almost certainly means we’re going to have to go through it all again this side of an election,” said a former cabinet minister. “There’s no way those two people – either of them – can reunite the party, let alone the country. It’s almost the worst possible outcome. “There’s always a chance that somebody can rise to the occasion and become a statesman when we least expect it. But in both these instances, these are people who have got flawed personalities. Kemi is divisive and aggressive and wrong about everything, and Jenrick is manipulative – and can be manipulated. They will be dancing on the fu cking tables at Labour HQ.” Some Tories fear both candidates will lead to the further erosion of their vote to the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. The Observer understands that the Lib Dems are already planning to use the result to their advantage. The party has drawn up a digital attack ad, for “blue wall” seats where they are opposing the Tories. Under the banner “Meet the final two Conservative leadership candidates”, the ad lists Badenoch’s aside that some civil servants are so bad they should be in prison and her criticism of maternity pay. It also highlights Jenrick stating he would vote for Donald Trump if he were in the US, a decision as housing minister that helped a Tory donor avoid a tax bill, and his order to paint over cartoon murals in a child asylum-seeker unit.
Robert Jenrick vows to 'kick one million illegal migrants out' - as Tory leadership candidate vows to end Britain's 'soft touch' reputation as PM,
Aye right.
He sounds like a cheap version of Trump. A total lack of empathy towards fellow but less fortunate human beings.
Well he has said he would vote for him. It would appear that the Tories are too clever by half, but we probably knew that already. PI55 ups and breweries spring to mind. There is a school of thought that says that whoever they elect is unlikely to last until the next general election. It is very difficult to see how either of them could unite the party.
Comments
None of this is original. Conservatives have been complaining about high rates of immigration, burdensome taxes and an overmighty state for generations. Those obsessions drove the party’s agenda in government for 14 years – and still they were evicted from office. The two candidates to lead the Conservatives in opposition represent different strands of the same failed ideological complex. Neither has shown a hint of contrition for a dismal record in office and neither looks fit to bring the party back to a position where it might once again be trusted to govern the country.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/the-guardian-view-on-the-conservative-leadership-contest-normality-is-not-on-the-ballot/ar-AA1rYywc?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=eceeccc0eb604468b0bd0806a064add3&ei=18#fullscreen
Kemi Badenoch 4/7 1/3
Robert Jenrick 2/1 6/4
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20241009-next-tory-leader-odds-badenoch-or-jenrick-who-is-the-favourite
"I dont know when the death certificate for the Conservative Party will be issued. But it will be a private funeral with no wake afterwards".
One theory is that Cleverly supporters stupidly lent votes to Jenrick, because they could beat him in the final two.
Another is that one lot of Tugendhat supporters wanted to stop Jenrick, the other lot wanted to stop Badenoch.
So both lots voted the other way.
It lost 246 of those 251 to Parties to the Left of its position. A considerable Majority to Labour. Of those remaining, an even more sizeable Majority to the Lib Dems.
It lost a grand total of 5 of its 251 lost Seats to a Party to the Right of it-Reform.
It clearly believes that it needs to lurch further to the Right.
And apparently believes that 5 is a much bigger number than 246.
Somebody famous said the other day, general elections are won from the centre ground.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-s-brutal-dig-at-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-leadership-race-gets-messy/ar-AA1s1VUK?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=b76a900c086a4995bfafc2a61a0f92b9&ei=52#fullscreen
Well, they say the Conservative Party is the most sophisticated and duplicitous electorate there is, and in this case, these two characteristics collided with devastating results for Mr Cleverly.
Piecing together nuggets from different camps, it looks like in Tuesday's round Mr Cleverly's figures were a bit inflated by Jenrick backers flipping to him to help his momentum and slow Ms Badenoch's.
But regardless of that, you would have expected Mr Cleverly as the only moderate left in the race to pick up Tom Tugendhat's supporters.
That didn't happen.
What seems to have happened instead is that some of the Cleverly supporters convinced their man was nailed on for the final two, flipped support to try to stop one of the other contenders and in doing so killed off their own candidate.
Meanwhile, Mr Jenrick called every single Tugendhat supporter to ask for their support, arguing - as he did on Sky News on Wednesday morning ahead of the vote - that Mr Cleverly was home and dry.
I also hear that Ms Badenoch hoovered up a number of Tugendhat votes by promising flippers the reward of shadow cabinet posts.
The upsum of all of it was they won out.
Now, whoever wins, a right-winger will be leading the Conservative Party.
"A civil servant called me just after the vote came in, and said 'that's the general election gone for you then'," said one Cleverly supporter.
Whether Mr Cleverly could have, in the end, edged past the right-wing candidate is an unknown.
But what this result does do is rob a big chunk of the Conservative electorate of a moderate choice, which may well displease some.
As for the bigger question about the future of the party, the result could help the Conservatives fend off the threat of Reform on its right flank, but there are serious doubts among many Tories about whether either Ms Badenoch or Mr Jenrick can reach beyond the Conservative Party and Reform voters to be a serious threat to Labour or rebuild with those who left them for the Lib Dems.
You can see why Sir Keir Starmer, after a punishing few weeks, finally has something to smile about.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/overconfident-cleverly-supporters-may-have-lost-their-candidate-a-place-in-the-last-two/ar-AA1rYYsg?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=33781ec70c264c028ebc41bf6511e1e7&ei=18#fullscreen
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/jenrick-team-tricked-five-cleverly-152335992.html
Aye right.
Lord Goodman of Wycombe, the former Tory MP and commentator, writes for the Observer online today that there are dangerous precedents for the party of such a split. “These percentages were eerily reminiscent of the 2001 Conservative leadership election, in which the eventual winner, Iain Duncan Smith, gained only 33% of his colleagues’s votes in the final ballot,” he writes. “His leadership didn’t end well.”
There was immediate anger and despair from many senior Tories after the result was announced, with several predicting that neither of the final two candidates would actually contest a general election. “This almost certainly means we’re going to have to go through it all again this side of an election,” said a former cabinet minister. “There’s no way those two people – either of them – can reunite the party, let alone the country. It’s almost the worst possible outcome.
“There’s always a chance that somebody can rise to the occasion and become a statesman when we least expect it. But in both these instances, these are people who have got flawed personalities. Kemi is divisive and aggressive and wrong about everything, and Jenrick is manipulative – and can be manipulated. They will be dancing on the fu cking tables at Labour HQ.”
Some Tories fear both candidates will lead to the further erosion of their vote to the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. The Observer understands that the Lib Dems are already planning to use the result to their advantage. The party has drawn up a digital attack ad, for “blue wall” seats where they are opposing the Tories.
Under the banner “Meet the final two Conservative leadership candidates”, the ad lists Badenoch’s aside that some civil servants are so bad they should be in prison and her criticism of maternity pay. It also highlights Jenrick stating he would vote for Donald Trump if he were in the US, a decision as housing minister that helped a Tory donor avoid a tax bill, and his order to paint over cartoon murals in a child asylum-seeker unit.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/james-cleverly-warned-mps-tactical-164805343.html
He sounds like a cheap version of Trump. A total lack of empathy towards fellow but less fortunate human beings.
Latest odds;
Badenoch 1/2
Jenrick 6/4
It would appear that the Tories are too clever by half, but we probably knew that already.
PI55 ups and breweries spring to mind.
There is a school of thought that says that whoever they elect is unlikely to last until the next general election.
It is very difficult to see how either of them could unite the party.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jenrick-says-he-would-appoint-rees-mogg-as-tory-party-chairman/ar-AA1sab3Q?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=4b02d9da994e4bfa952002e09034c396&ei=75#fullscreen
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/top-pollster-john-curtice-gives-gloomy-verdict-on-kemi-badenoch-and-robert-jenrick/ar-AA1sesPk?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=9818c2dc7816406aa4ff53ab6c640fd1&ei=18#fullscreen