Interesting hand and discussion. I think iso anywhere from 3-4x is fine (i like 3.5) if they're limping really wide. Against someone that limps a tighter range I would limp more and go 4-5x when I do iso.
I agree with your analysis about them shoving trips on the river - it is definitely something you see from weaker players where they unintentionally "bluff" in spots like this because they just don't know what to do and don't want to have to face a decision. I also don't think you can rule out flushes for similar reasons. As someone in this thread already mentioned they expected to see Tc9c here. Obviously, it makes no sense to jam this as value but they call turn forgetting they are OOP and then when river comes an A they think "villain might have an A, but i'm scared they'll check so i'm going to jam"
I'm not sure any of the other hands influence my decision much but I think given these possibilities we just have to call. Yes, we might see A2 and 22 a fair bit but I think we'll see the other stuff enough to make it +ev to call.
With reads this *could* be an easy exploitative fold but without I just don't think you can. It's close though... I do wonder if QcJc is better than KcJc for blocking more FH with the AQ. But you do beat all other flushes with Kc so probably not. Obviously I'd fold the J high flush.
Comments
I agree with your analysis about them shoving trips on the river - it is definitely something you see from weaker players where they unintentionally "bluff" in spots like this because they just don't know what to do and don't want to have to face a decision. I also don't think you can rule out flushes for similar reasons. As someone in this thread already mentioned they expected to see Tc9c here. Obviously, it makes no sense to jam this as value but they call turn forgetting they are OOP and then when river comes an A they think "villain might have an A, but i'm scared they'll check so i'm going to jam"
I'm not sure any of the other hands influence my decision much but I think given these possibilities we just have to call. Yes, we might see A2 and 22 a fair bit but I think we'll see the other stuff enough to make it +ev to call.
With reads this *could* be an easy exploitative fold but without I just don't think you can. It's close though... I do wonder if QcJc is better than KcJc for blocking more FH with the AQ. But you do beat all other flushes with Kc so probably not. Obviously I'd fold the J high flush.