In Response to Re: help and advice needed! : im very confused. i have no idea what all this is. ok lets say im +7k this year thats not including any cash 4 points so thats 17 is wks so its 510 hours of 6-8 tables, who will it work? Posted by freechips1
You enter the data, which I described. That website then simulates a no of players (which you've specified) and graphs their results over the given number of hands. The whole point is that you keep getting all in with 80%/40% etc etc and you only ever win or lose so your results aren't up to you. You could be any one of the lines that get shown on the graph, what i'm trying to show you is the difference between the lines, the spreads can be huge, some people with massive downswings then big upswings, some just run good forever.
If you look at the graph of someone losing at 2-5$/hour then you'll see that some will still win to start with and go on heaters etc but they will all be downwards graphs.
If you look at this graph. It plays out 10 players who win at a small rate with not too swingy a style of play, playing a 175k hand sample. You could be the top brown line that went off hot and kept running good with some small swings (one bigger one near the end). You also could be the light green line that is so well established under the >0 line!
its been a eye opener, i have always thought that variance would iron out over 5000 hands, wrong again. Posted by freechips1
When I first started a few years ago, and people were first getting together and trying to work out what a big enough sample was, 50k hands was like more than any one had ever played so that was huge. Now there are lots of people playing 1mill+ hands a year. The variance in a sample that size is ridonkulous. Imagine how variance can affect you, not only in coolers, losing to suck outs etc, but also how you run when you move up and take shots compared to when you move down etc etc.
Do you understand the graphs from that website know and what they are showing?
thanks beaneh, i do understand the graphs. this has put me on a bit of a downer, i now need to think was i just runnig good over the past few months and i am not that good or am i any good at this game. i played a few hours last night and the river killed me time and time again, after looking through the hands i keep asking myself the same question, how did villan call my rr on the flop or call my raise on turn (when i was ahead). this is giving me a bit a confidence knowing i am getting money in good. if variance can last as long as you say, i need to think about what to do now, i dont wanna hang around at 100nl and wait till i go bust just hoping things will change. i am seriously considering starting all over again.
thanks beaneh, i do understand the graphs. this has put me on a bit of a downer, i now need to think was i just runnig good over the past few months and i am not that good or am i any good at this game. i played a few hours last night and the river killed me time and time again, after looking through the hands i keep asking myself the same question, how did villan call my rr on the flop or call my raise on turn (when i was ahead). this is giving me a bit a confidence knowing i am getting money in good. if variance can last as long as you say, i need to think about what to do now, i dont wanna hang around at 100nl and wait till i go bust just hoping things will change. i am seriously considering starting all over again. Posted by freechips1
You cant expect to have winning months every month because you don't control how many beats you take, how many flips you win etc. Just keep making the right decision and forget about your result.
The first time you go on a downswing it's the worst thing in the world, you're the worst player you'll never win again, then boom oh yeah downswing over, I can play again weeee, take on all comers, doh here's another downswing and it is bigger/faster/harder than any i've ever seen.
i have had a few swings in the past, losing over a week or two. i do feel at the moment that i cant win, i had another mess about with that variance thing befor and seen one winning player was out of profit over 250000 hands on a 1mil hands, i dont think i could take that it would drive me mad. one thing that gets me is other regs, you, offshoot, ajs and lolufold ok your all good players and have a edge over me but i never see any consitantly losing like i am at the moment or do all these boys run like god all the time.
i always thought by playing 6+ tables this would iron out the variance, or is it a case of you will run bad untill the poker gods say so? when running bad should you play 6+ tables or should you cut down and play 2-3 to limit the damage?
i have had a few swings in the past, losing over a week or two. i do feel at the moment that i cant win, i had another mess about with that variance thing befor and seen one winning player was out of profit over 250000 hands on a 1mil hands, i dont think i could take that it would drive me mad. one thing that gets me is other regs, you, offshoot, ajs and lolufold ok your all good players and have a edge over me but i never see any consitantly losing like i am at the moment or do all these boys run like god all the time. Posted by freechips1
If you had seen me two months ago, I played about 50k hands in the month on sky, I literally lost every pot I shovelled money into, with sets, fd's, Aces, any flip. it went on all month, best bit is a month and a half later and i'm still not running well just not as toilet as I was that month lol.
There is nothing you can do about variance or how it affects you swings wise you just have to cope mentally.
i always thought by playing 6+ tables this would iron out the variance, or is it a case of you will run bad untill the poker gods say so? when running bad should you play 6+ tables or should you cut down and play 2-3 to limit the damage? Posted by freechips1
The more tables you play, the more hands per hour. The more hands per hour the theoretically higher your winrate is. However if your standard of poker is lower with more tables you may hamper your winrate. Play as many tables as allows you to play your best and be confident in what you do.
Poker destroys your confidence over and over again... sick sick game... bean, how do you do it :S... you still training to be an accountant btw, and how's that going?
Comments
When I first started a few years ago, and people were first getting together and trying to work out what a big enough sample was, 50k hands was like more than any one had ever played so that was huge. Now there are lots of people playing 1mill+ hands a year. The variance in a sample that size is ridonkulous. Imagine how variance can affect you, not only in coolers, losing to suck outs etc, but also how you run when you move up and take shots compared to when you move down etc etc.
this has put me on a bit of a downer, i now need to think was i just runnig good over the past few months and i am not that good or am i any good at this game.
i played a few hours last night and the river killed me time and time again, after looking through the hands i keep asking myself the same question, how did villan call my rr on the flop or call my raise on turn (when i was ahead).
this is giving me a bit a confidence knowing i am getting money in good.
if variance can last as long as you say, i need to think about what to do now, i dont wanna hang around at 100nl and wait till i go bust just hoping things will change.
i am seriously considering starting all over again.
i do feel at the moment that i cant win, i had another mess about with that variance thing befor and seen one winning player was out of profit over 250000 hands on a 1mil hands, i dont think i could take that it would drive me mad.
one thing that gets me is other regs, you, offshoot, ajs and lolufold ok your all good players and have a edge over me but i never see any consitantly losing like i am at the moment or do all these boys run like god all the time.
when running bad should you play 6+ tables or should you cut down and play 2-3 to limit the damage?