Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number

aussie09

Coin tossing.... people often say that in the long run it will return to equal ... that is simply not correct ... it might, but it is increasingly unlikely as the number of coin tosses increases

what is correct is that the variance percentage of all coin tosses from a half chance set of results will most likely reduce in the long term, nevertheless the variance number will most likely be greater.

if you are relying on this falsehood to restore your bank roll, it won't.  however what will almost inevitably happen is that with more events the variance number will be disguised by a lowering variance percentage.  so you will feel better even though you're probably no better off.

regards
aussie09

ACESOVER8s

And that concludes todays lesson on tossing

emilyegg

my head is sore :0(

elsadog

I think you're secretly an expert to$$er. Don't know about the rest but I think I'm impressed. ;O)

Donut64

Dear professor aussie09 is their any chance of you doing some sort of graph so us normal folk can understand your obviously brilliant theory!  Thank you.

BlackFish3

In Response to Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

Coin tossing.... people often say that in the long run it will return to equal ... that is simply not correct ... it might, but it is increasingly unlikely as the number of coin tosses increases what is correct is that the variance percentage of all coin tosses from a half chance set of results will most likely reduce in the long term, nevertheless the variance number will most likely be greater. if you are relying on this falsehood to restore your bank roll, it won't.  however what will almost inevitably happen is that with more events the variance number will be disguised by a lowering variance percentage.  so you will feel better even though you're probably no better off. regards aussie09
Posted by aussie09

If you flipped a coin an infinite amount of times, it will be heads exactly 50% of the time.

aussie09

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : If you flipped a coin an infinite amount of times, it will be heads exactly 50% of the time.
Posted by BlackFish3

it wouldn't and can be disproved in one simple way...  with infite spins, what happens on the next spin?

regards
aussie09

elsadog

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : it wouldn't and can be disproved in one simple way...  with infite spins, what happens on the next spin? regards aussie09
Posted by aussie09

We've done the infinity thing before on here and I haven't quite recovered  ........ can we leave it for an eternity or two please.

elsadog

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : If you flipped a coin an infinite amount of times, it will be heads exactly 50% of the time.
Posted by BlackFish3

Don't go there fishy ........ it's wrong m8

MAXALLY

Me and my mates use a coin toss in tricky situations when in a public house........

'HEADS'  -  we stop

'TAILS'  -   we have another pint

'LANDS ON ITS SIDE'  - we go home!

Me and mates are all alcoholics for some reason We put this down to bad luck though 

dav1964

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

Me and my mates use a coin toss in tricky situations when in a public house........ 'HEADS'  -  we stop 'TAILS'  -   we have another pint 'LANDS ON ITS SIDE'  - we go home! Me and mates are all alcoholics for some reason We put this down to bad luck though 
Posted by MAXALLY

Im pleased you and ure mates like to toss together.dav

MAXALLY

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : Im pleased you and ure mates like to toss together.dav
Posted by dav1964

At least I have got some mates Dav.......:) ) )

dav1964

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : At least I have got some mates Dav.......:) ) )
Posted by MAXALLY

Fair point.lmao

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : it wouldn't and can be disproved in one simple way...  with infite spins, what happens on the next spin? regards aussie09
Posted by aussie09

Lol there is no infinity + 1!!! Infinity is infinity... its endless, so there is no infinity +1, so what happens on the next spin is part of the 'infinity' concept. If you increase the number of spins then the number of heads and tails will even out closer and closer to being 50 50 %. So if you do infinite spins then it will be a 50 50 split.

Mr_Miyagi

I could never toss for infinity anyway


you'd go blind

BlackFish3

It's similiar to when a quadratic sequence converges. As the x value in the quadratic equation generating the sequence approaches + infinity or - infinity then the y value (the result of the equation, i.e the sequence numbers) approach a defined limit.

Probability works the same way. The % of times the coin lands on heads approaches 50 as the number of times the coin is tossed approaches infinity. When the number of times the coin is tossed equals infinity then the % of times the coin landed on heads equals 50 (similiar to being the limit of a converging quadratic sequence).

aussie09

exactly, as you increase the number of events the proportions will almost certainly get closer in percentage terms of the total and almost certainly the difference between the two numbers will be greater.  what this means is that bad luck does not automatically recover it just gets disguised.   it would be greater than a million to one chance that the number of heads and tails were the same.  infinite in fact.

all that aside, the original point is that variance percentage is disguising variance number.  you can't be consoled that luck will even everything out.  skill will prevail.   low skill players will over time increase their variance numbers negatively whilst good plyers will increase their variance numbers positively.  interestingly at the same time both skill levels will have a reducing variance percentage.

regards
aussie09

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

exactly, as you increase the number of events the proportions will almost certainly get closer in percentage terms of the total and almost certainly the difference between the two numbers will be greater.  what this means is that bad luck does not automatically recover it just gets disguised.   it would be greater than a million to one chance that the number of heads and tails were the same.  infinite in fact. all that aside, the original point is that variance percentage is disguising variance number.  you can't be consoled that luck will even everything out.  skill will prevail.   low skill players will over time increase their variance numbers negatively whilst good plyers will increase their variance numbers positively.  interestingly at the same time both skill levels will have a reducing variance percentage. regards aussie09
Posted by aussie09

If you tossed a coin 4 times it wouldn't be a million to one chance of there being 2 heads and 2 tails. If you tossed a coin a great deal of times it would be highly unlikely to be exactly the same, but if you do it infintely then it would even out exactly.

In terms of luck evening everything out, it will even out the chance element of poker, such as when you are all in etc. This will also mean that everyone will get the same chances and situations etc in the infinite long term. So the skill comes in maximising every opportunity, or minimising losses.

I dont really understand what you mean about variance numbers and variance percentage. can you clear this up for me pweez.

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : If you tossed a coin 4 times it wouldn't be a million to one chance of there being 2 heads and 2 tails. If you tossed a coin a great deal of times it would be highly unlikely to be exactly the same, but if you do it infintely then it would even out exactly. In terms of luck evening everything out, it will even out the chance element of poker, such as when you are all in etc. This will also mean that everyone will get the same chances and situations etc in the infinite long term. So the skill comes in maximising every opportunity, or minimising losses. I dont really understand what you mean about variance numbers and variance percentage. can you clear this up for me pweez.
Posted by BlackFish3

Sooooooo, you're sure that infinity is an even number?

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

It's similiar to when a quadratic sequence converges. As the x value in the quadratic equation generating the sequence approaches + infinity or - infinity then the y value (the result of the equation, i.e the sequence numbers) approach a defined limit. Probability works the same way. The % of times the coin lands on heads approaches 50 as the number of times the coin is tossed approaches infinity. When the number of times the coin is tossed equals infinity then the % of times the coin landed on heads equals 50 (similiar to being the limit of a converging quadratic sequence).
Posted by BlackFish3

It's absolutely nothing like any convergent series.
You're confusing two totally un-related issues.

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:

In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : Sooooooo, you're sure that infinity is an even number?
Posted by MereNovice

Well the coin will land on heads the same number of times it lands on tails... so in order to do this i guess it would have to be an even number of times :S