In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : It's absolutely nothing like any convergent series. You're confusing two totally un-related issues. Posted by MereNovice
blargh its an analogy...
convergent series approach a specific limit or number ok. in the same way the greater the number of coins you toss the closer and closer it will get to a 50 50 split.
so you have convergent series getting closer and closer to a limit, and you have coins being tossed getting closer and closer to a 50 50 split...
common factor being that the greater the number of times the closer it gets to something (not sure if that makes sense lol) but hmmm absolutely nothing like each other, two totally un-related issues... not so sure about that.
In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : If you tossed a coin 4 times it wouldn't be a million to one chance of there being 2 heads and 2 tails. If you tossed a coin a great deal of times it would be highly unlikely to be exactly the same, but if you do it infintely then it would even out exactly. In terms of luck evening everything out, it will even out the chance element of poker, such as when you are all in etc. This will also mean that everyone will get the same chances and situations etc in the infinite long term. So the skill comes in maximising every opportunity, or minimising losses. I dont really understand what you mean about variance numbers and variance percentage. can you clear this up for me pweez. Posted by BlackFish3
you proposed that at infinity the number of heads and tails would be the same... that is not correct.
if you are confused over number and percentage you might feel that luck will turn your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck. it won't.
example
Coin tossed HHHTTTTHHH. That is 6 heads 4 tails Variance number is +1 for heads Variance percentage is +20% for heads
if we then spin the coin for another ten events with the results going with probaility That is 11 heads and 9 tails Variance number is +1 for heads Variance percentage is +10% for heads
As we increase the number of events some might conclude that things even themselves out because the percentage has "halved" However the original run of "bad luck" remainds the same Variance number is still +1 for heads
One final example, if it helps further, consider 1,000 events of coin tossing. I will bet you that the result will not be 500 heads and 500 tails. I will give you odds too. Bigger odds for more spins. Send your stake to my Sky Poker account
In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : blargh its an analogy... convergent series approach a specific limit or number ok. in the same way the greater the number of coins you toss the closer and closer it will get to a 50 50 split. so you have convergent series getting closer and closer to a limit, and you have coins being tossed getting closer and closer to a 50 50 split... common factor being that the greater the number of times the closer it gets to something (not sure if that makes sense lol) but hmmm absolutely nothing like each other, two totally un-related issues... not so sure about that. Posted by BlackFish3
I could use cutting an apple up as an analogy for splitting the atom - it wouldn't make it right.
It is not true that "the greater the number of coins you toss the closer and closer it will get to a 50 50 split". The expectation is that it will tend towards 50/50 but this is a completely different concept.
In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : you proposed that at infinity the number of heads and tails would be the same... that is not correct.if you are confused over number and percentage you might feel that luck will turn your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck. it won't. example Coin tossed HHHTTTTHHH. That is 6 heads 4 tails Variance number is +1 for heads Variance percentage is +20% for heads if we then spin the coin for another ten events with the results going with probaility That is 11 heads and 9 tails Variance number is +1 for heads Variance percentage is +10% for heads As we increase the number of events some might conclude that things even themselves out because the percentage has "halved" However the original run of "bad luck" remainds the same Variance number is still +1 for heads One final example, if it helps further, consider 1,000 events of coin tossing. I will bet you that the result will not be 500 heads and 500 tails. I will give you odds too. Bigger odds for more spins. Send your stake to my Sky Poker account regards aussie09 Posted by aussie09
In the long run the number of heads and tails will get closer and closer to a 50 50 split, so why would it not be exactly equal for an infinite number of spins?
In terms of luck turning your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck... chance is not dictated by the past, so if a coin was heads 5 times in a row, the next spin will still be a 50 50.
In terms of your variance number and variance percentage thing, are you showing that the variance % decreases, but the variance number does not necessarily? Because surely 6/10 heads is worse than 11/20 heads? Or are you just illustrating how it gets closer and closer to a 50 50 split but that does not mean that just because of a bad run things will improve in the future? Because surely they will in order for the mean to even out at 50 50. Sorry im getting a bit confused by this variance number, variance percentage thing so this part of the post probably is full of contradictions etc lol.
In terms of us gambling on whether 1000 coin tosses will have the exact same outcome of heads and tails then i would be happy to oblige. IF you gave me better odds than the statistical probability of it being exactly even. In terms of the number of possibilities. This is a calculation for mere novice lol. In terms of me sending you my stake on sky... point me to the transfer funds... oh there isnt 1 , finally... since when does 1000 coin spins come even close to an infinite number of coin flips?
In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : In the long run the number of heads and tails will get closer and closer to a 50 50 split, so why would it not be exactly equal for an infinite number of spins? In terms of luck turning your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck... chance is not dictated by the past, so if a coin was heads 5 times in a row, the next spin will still be a 50 50. In terms of your variance number and variance percentage thing, are you showing that the variance % decreases, but the variance number does not necessarily? Because surely 6/10 heads is worse than 11/20 heads? Or are you just illustrating how it gets closer and closer to a 50 50 split but that does not mean that just because of a bad run things will improve in the future? Because surely they will in order for the mean to even out at 50 50. Sorry im getting a bit confused by this variance number, variance percentage thing so this part of the post probably is full of contradictions etc lol. In terms of us gambling on whether 1000 coin tosses will have the exact same outcome of heads and tails then i would be happy to oblige. IF you gave me better odds than the statistical probability of it being exactly even. In terms of the number of possibilities. This is a calculation for mere novice lol. In terms of me sending you my stake on sky... point me to the transfer funds... oh there isnt 1 , finally... since when does 1000 coin spins come even close to an infinite number of coin flips? Posted by BlackFish3
i refer the honourable gentleman to the responses given earlier.
But why is it not true that the more flips you do the closer you get to a 50 50 split? I really dont care if im right or wrong here, i just want to understand it. Obviously each spin is independant but thats just when you look at single spins. So i cant understand why the more flips you do why it wont approach a 50 50 split. How does the real world outcome differ from the expectation? help me mere novice!!
Is it possible for you to flip a coin an infinite number of times and it always be heads? This is all difficult to comprehend
i guess the probability of something happening does not mean that it definately will... i think this is where i am getting confused.
Just dont understand how expectation can differ from real world outcome :S ok i give up now lol... im doing my head in, and probably everyone else who reads this.
A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker..
Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker.
Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time.
Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27%
In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time.
Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
the original observation was that if you are expecting that luck will surely come your way because you deserve it due to a run of a bad luck then you are misguided...it isnt goiung to happen.
if you talk variance in terms of percentage rather than number you will be mislead into thinking this
May I point something out.. A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker.. Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker. Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time. Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27% In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time. Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread. Posted by SNOWY37
but this is never about a 50 50, it's about variance. the whole coin flipping thing is just an easier way to understand variance. It's all about variance evening out... or not. So it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations. I think this is what mere novice and aussie were trying to explain to me anyway... hope ive finally grapsed it at least!
Anyway... if anyone wants to try and imagine a 10th dimension then maybe you will find this video interesting:
May I point something out.. A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker.. Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker. Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time. Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27% In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time. Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread. Posted by SNOWY37
What about the probability of getting the cards dealt in the first place etc...? In terms of variance and chance in poker, it is not just limited to when you are all in, what about situations such as coolers?
Is it possible for you to flip a coin an infinite number of times and it always be heads? This is all difficult to comprehend i guess the probability of something happening does not mean that it definately will... i think this is where i am getting confused. Just dont understand how expectation can differ from real world outcome :S ok i give up now lol... im doing my head in, and probably everyone else who reads this. Posted by BlackFish3
Yes but it's unlikely!
Here's a table developing on aussie09's point about the odds of exactly equal number of heads and tails for an increasing even number of tosses.
Number of heads
Number of tosses
Even sequences
Total sequences
Probability
1
2
2
4
0.5
2
4
6
16
0.38
3
6
20
64
0.31
4
8
70
256
0.27
5
10
252
1024
0.25
6
12
924
4096
0.23
7
14
3432
16384
0.21
8
16
12870
65536
0.2
9
18
48620
262144
0.19
10
20
184756
1048576
0.18
11
22
705432
4194304
0.17
As you can see, the probability of there being exactly equal number of heads and tails decreases as the number of tosses increases. I'm sure that aussie09 will correct me if I've got this wrong.
thanks snowy the original observation was that if you are expecting that luck will surely come your way because you deserve it due to a run of a bad luck then you are misguided...it isnt goiung to happen. if you talk variance in terms of percentage rather than number you will be mislead into thinking this and maxally... i was laughing.. funny regards aussie09 Posted by aussie09
Yes, you do not deserve good luck because you have had bad luck, in a way you can discard the past. But... before your bad luck started you could have the expectation of having as much good luck as bad luck in a defined time frame. That is where the whole coin flip thing branches from... and that is how it is relevant.
Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost:
it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations.
Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost: it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations. Posted by BlackFish3
That's a very good summary (spelling mistakes aside). :-)))
Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost: it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations. Posted by BlackFish3
Comments
convergent series approach a specific limit or number ok.
in the same way the greater the number of coins you toss the closer and closer it will get to a 50 50 split.
so you have convergent series getting closer and closer to a limit, and you have coins being tossed getting closer and closer to a 50 50 split...
common factor being that the greater the number of times the closer it gets to something (not sure if that makes sense lol) but hmmm absolutely nothing like each other, two totally un-related issues... not so sure about that.
you proposed that at infinity the number of heads and tails would be the same... that is not correct.
if you are confused over number and percentage you might feel that luck will turn your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck. it won't.
example
Coin tossed HHHTTTTHHH.
That is 6 heads 4 tails
Variance number is +1 for heads
Variance percentage is +20% for heads
if we then spin the coin for another ten events with the results going with probaility
That is 11 heads and 9 tails
Variance number is +1 for heads
Variance percentage is +10% for heads
As we increase the number of events some might conclude that things even themselves out because the percentage has "halved"
However the original run of "bad luck" remainds the same
Variance number is still +1 for heads
One final example, if it helps further, consider 1,000 events of coin tossing. I will bet you that the result will not be 500 heads and 500 tails. I will give you odds too. Bigger odds for more spins. Send your stake to my Sky Poker account
regards
aussie09
blackfish....i think you're bluffing.
It is not true that "the greater the number of coins you toss the closer and closer it will get to a 50 50 split". The expectation is that it will tend towards 50/50 but this is a completely different concept.
In terms of luck turning your way correcting any previous spell of bad luck... chance is not dictated by the past, so if a coin was heads 5 times in a row, the next spin will still be a 50 50.
In terms of your variance number and variance percentage thing, are you showing that the variance % decreases, but the variance number does not necessarily? Because surely 6/10 heads is worse than 11/20 heads? Or are you just illustrating how it gets closer and closer to a 50 50 split but that does not mean that just because of a bad run things will improve in the future? Because surely they will in order for the mean to even out at 50 50. Sorry im getting a bit confused by this variance number, variance percentage thing so this part of the post probably is full of contradictions etc lol.
In terms of us gambling on whether 1000 coin tosses will have the exact same outcome of heads and tails then i would be happy to oblige. IF you gave me better odds than the statistical probability of it being exactly even. In terms of the number of possibilities. This is a calculation for mere novice lol. In terms of me sending you my stake on sky... point me to the transfer funds... oh there isnt 1
i refer the honourable gentleman to the responses given earlier.
I really dont care if im right or wrong here, i just want to understand it.
Obviously each spin is independant but thats just when you look at single spins.
So i cant understand why the more flips you do why it wont approach a 50 50 split. How does the real world outcome differ from the expectation?
help me mere novice!!
This is all difficult to comprehend
i guess the probability of something happening does not mean that it definately will... i think this is where i am getting confused.
Just dont understand how expectation can differ from real world outcome :S
ok i give up now lol... im doing my head in, and probably everyone else who reads this.
A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker..
Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker.
Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker..
Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time.
Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards..
Pocket pair is favourite 52.27%
In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time.
Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
thanks snowy
the original observation was that if you are expecting that luck will surely come your way because you deserve it due to a run of a bad luck then you are misguided...it isnt goiung to happen.
if you talk variance in terms of percentage rather than number you will be mislead into thinking this
and maxally... i was laughing.. funny
regards
aussie09
Anyway... if anyone wants to try and imagine a 10th dimension then maybe you will find this video interesting:
http://www.tenthdimension.com/medialinks.php
Here's a table developing on aussie09's point about the odds of exactly equal number of heads and tails for an increasing even number of tosses.
I'm sure that aussie09 will correct me if I've got this wrong.
it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations.
bingo