if he flopped the flush and you think your K of diamonds will give you a better flush if you hit one on the turn and river you are only around 30% likely to hit.
You have only £3 in there. Surely there are better spots for you to get your other £30 in.
I would fold, but it might be the right move to call if some of these players above are saying call.
Post reads and previous battles with villain, if you dont have any pay more attention. Raise flop, only ever folding if villain is a rock and we are deep. Posted by ajs4385
fair point, no reads and no battles with villian. i had my eye on one other player in particular who i thought i could stack... how ironic
raise flop, yes i agree. if i hadnt thought i could play the hand better i wouldnt have started this thread. Im not a multi table high limit player like you, so im pleased that you have posted. thanks.
what im trying to point out is it IS my natural instinct to fold here, BUT, i made a "gamblers" call because i thought it might be mathmatically or technically correct (over time) rather like dohhhhhh is implying.... maybe im thinking about the game too much and i should just stick with my natural instincts... hmmmm
Its ok Gregg, I dont post much cos most threads in this setion are look at me I have had a bad beat. If no reads I am getting it in on flop.
As for Mr Miyagi, we are getting it in because villain could quite easily have a worse pair with a diamond. Also there is hardly any hands where we are crushed. If you only get it in when you have the nuts or near nuts you are not going to get paid off by anybody with two poker brain cells to rub together.
As for villain he played it terrible by not 3 betting pre this should have all gone in pre flop.
I think its a fold TBH but its pretty close, his range for doing this could include sets and two pairs and even his bluff range is going to have the ace of diamonds which means the villian will have around 46% equity against us. When calling the only hands we are hoping to see here is jj and qq. (villian might not even push with those hands as 20nl players are generally passive as seen pre flop)
I've read everyone else's comments thus far and I still think it's a call. Let's have a close look at the villain. They flat a standard preflop raise on the button (which of course widen's the blind's calling range and encourages a multi-way pot). Then to a raise and a flat they overbet shove the lot into the middle. There is no way to put him on pocket aces here, and pocket aces with the Ad is the only hand we are really in bad shape against. If this happened to me I think they have either made the flush but not the nut flush or more likely they have AdX (leaning towards AdKX & AdQx). If I had AdKx in the villian's spot, I know I'm squeezing or folding. To Lynx and others, yes I know you are also never in great shape (unless you've got some crazy fool with KT) but you have a good edge in enough spots to make it a call. FWIW this is turning out to be one of the better discussions in the clinic.
I've read everyone else's comments thus far and I still think it's a call. Let's have a close look at the villain. They flat a standard preflop raise on the button (which of course widen's the blind's calling range and encourages a multi-way pot). Then to a raise and a flat they overbet shove the lot into the middle. There is no way to put him on pocket aces here, and pocket aces with the Ad is the only hand we are really in bad shape against. If this happened to me I think they have either made the flush but not the nut flush or more likely they have AdX (leaning towards AdKX & AdQx). If I had AdKx in the villian's spot, I know I'm squeezing or folding. To Lynx and others, yes I know you are also never in great shape (unless you've got some crazy fool with KT) but you have a good edge in enough spots to make it a call. FWIW this is turning out to be one of the better discussions in the clinic. Posted by TommyD
I want to make it absolutely clear that i did not intend this to be a "bad beat" or a moany thread... in fact, far from it!
I am not a great player, but i do aspire to become one in the very long term. My motivation behind posting this hand was to find out whether this was a complete no brainer call... do i worry too much about getting my money in?
Or, was i right to be hesitant but right to ultimately call because of the likelihood of being ahead over time? Or should i just know im behind and fold?
The greatest players in the world can save money when placed in situations such as this. And i would dearly have loved to have found the fold that i so wanted to make... but even if i did, would it have been the right fold in a cash players mindset??? this is what i find interesting because im not a cash player, and my sng and mtt background wants to find the fold...
One could of course trivialise this and say its just down to AA vs KK and all the money goes in. Imo, this is a very simplistic and does not take into account the stacks of 150bbs + each. The thing is, i want to save every penny i can, that is my mindset when i think i could be behind. Others choose to gamble, i will always aim to try to find a way of getting out of a situation when i could be behind, maybe i am wrong...
I think its a fold TBH but its pretty close, his range for doing this could include sets and two pairs and even his bluff range is going to have the ace of diamonds which means the villian will have around 46% equity against us. When calling the only hands we are hoping to see here is jj and qq. (villian might not even push with those hands as 20nl players are generally passive as seen pre flop) Posted by DeuceAK-47
After further analysis this post is wrong and it is actually a easy call.
With the money we have already put in the pot we need 43.31% equity to call and agaisnt this range TT-AA,88,44,t8s,t8o we have 56.7% equity,also you have to include all the Adx hands which we have 55% equity against.
Even if the villian would push with all the smaller made flush hands (which is debatable) there is not enough hand combinations to make this a fold.
In Response to Re: is this "getoffable"? : After further analysis this post is wrong and it is actually a easy call. With the money we have already put in the pot we need 43.31% equity to call and agaisnt this range TT-AA,88,44,t8s,t8o we have 56.7% equity,also you have to include all the Adx hands which we have 55% equity against. Even if the villian would push with all the smaller made flush hands (which is debatable) there is not enough hand combinations to make this a fold. Posted by DeuceAK-47
lol you had a couple of hours to make your mind up, i only had 15 seconds:)
im glad people have found this interesting I want to make it absolutely clear that i did not intend this to be a "bad beat" or a moany thread... in fact, far from it! I am not a great player, but i do aspire to become one in the very long term. My motivation behind posting the hand in question was to find out whether this was a complete no brainer call... do i worry too much about getting my money in? Or, was i right to be hesitant but right to ultimately call because of the likelihood of being ahead over time? Or should i just know im behind and fold? The greatest players in the world can save money when placed in situations such as this. And i would dearly have loved to have found the fold that i so wanted to make... but even if i did, would it have been the right fold in a cash players mindset??? this is what i find interesting because im not a cash player, and my sng and mtt background wants to find the fold... love it, thanks guys... Posted by GREGHOGG
Greg,
I am finding it hard to put what I want to say into words but here go's. Perhaps this hand is a cooler, but I think that you can get off coolers, and obviously this is dependent on the situation. I try to discount the "this is +ve in the long run" mindset, primarily because I'm a nit that hates to lose any amount, no matter how small. So I tend to play on instincts, which are correct most of the time. With no reads on the player, however, this all goes out the window. You have to either go on the maths, or just fold and say that you can find a better spot later on.
Having said all of that, and coming from a micro-stakes background, I would find it almost impossible to find a fold in 15 seconds.
In Response to Re: is this "getoffable"? : lol you had a couple of hours to make your mind up, i only had 15 seconds:) Posted by GREGHOGG
Yeah i know i am slow lol, its good doing equity calculations though as when a situation similar to this comes up again you will know you have to much equity to fold in the 15 seconds required.
Its refreshing to see a post which actually has some discussion between the regs and lets us think about the hand for more than a minute :-)
In Response to Re: is this "getoffable"? : Greg, I am finding it hard to put what I want to say into words but here go's. Perhaps this hand is a cooler, but I think that you can get off coolers, and obviously this is dependent on the situation. I try to discount the "this is +ve in the long run" mindset, primarily because I'm a nit that hates to lose any amount, no matter how small. So I tend to play on instincts, which are correct most of the time. With no reads on the player, however, this all goes out the window. You have to either go on the maths, or just fold and say that you can find a better spot later on. Having said all of that, and coming from a micro-stakes background, I would find it almost impossible to find a fold in 15 seconds. Interesting hand. Will Posted by Wilhelm
Will, the highlighted is me too, at heart...
I have been successful with a generally nitty style for some time in a variety of games. This means i will never lose money at poker at the very least. But i wont win very much either. i could opt to play this way forever and enjoy my poker with very little risk.
However, the other option, is to expand my skill set by listening to the online pros with their maths and +ev stuff, because it is clearly successful for them. In the short term this may lose me money while i am learning this style properly.But if i really want to improve and become a more successful player, i don't see that i have any other option, as much as it goes against the grain. Wish me luck!
In Response to Re: is this "getoffable"? : Will, the highlighted is me too, at heart ... I have been successful with a generally nitty style for some time in a variety of games. This means i will never lose money at poker at the very least. But i wont win very much either. i could opt to play this way forever and enjoy my poker with very little risk. However, the other option, is to expand my skill set by listening to the online pros with their maths and +ev stuff, because it is clearly successful for them. In the short term this may lose me money while i am learning this style properly.But if i really want to improve and become a more successful player, i don't see that i have any other option, as much as it goes against the grain. Wish me luck! Posted by GREGHOGG
Of course I wih you all the best. Just don't lose your instincts.
In Response to Re: is this "getoffable"? : Will, the highlighted is me too, at heart ... I have been successful with a generally nitty style for some time in a variety of games. This means i will never lose money at poker at the very least. But i wont win very much either. i could opt to play this way forever and enjoy my poker with very little risk. However, the other option, is to expand my skill set by listening to the online pros with their maths and +ev stuff, because it is clearly successful for them. In the short term this may lose me money while i am learning this style properly.But if i really want to improve and become a more successful player, i don't see that i have any other option, as much as it goes against the grain. Wish me luck! Posted by GREGHOGG
I use to fold if i thought it was close in ev as i thought i would have less variance, what i did not realise was the more +ev sitautions i took the more my winrate would increase which would give me less variance in the long run.
Comments
if he flopped the flush and you think your K of diamonds will give you a better flush if you hit one on the turn and river you are only around 30% likely to hit.
You have only £3 in there. Surely there are better spots for you to get your other £30 in.
I would fold, but it might be the right move to call if some of these players above are saying call.
raise flop, yes i agree. if i hadnt thought i could play the hand better i wouldnt have started this thread. Im not a multi table high limit player like you, so im pleased that you have posted. thanks.
what im trying to point out is it IS my natural instinct to fold here, BUT, i made a "gamblers" call because i thought it might be mathmatically or technically correct (over time) rather like dohhhhhh is implying.... maybe im thinking about the game too much and i should just stick with my natural instincts... hmmmm
Its ok Gregg, I dont post much cos most threads in this setion are look at me I have had a bad beat. If no reads I am getting it in on flop.
As for Mr Miyagi, we are getting it in because villain could quite easily have a worse pair with a diamond. Also there is hardly any hands where we are crushed. If you only get it in when you have the nuts or near nuts you are not going to get paid off by anybody with two poker brain cells to rub together.
As for villain he played it terrible by not 3 betting pre this should have all gone in pre flop.
I think its a fold TBH but its pretty close, his range for doing this could include sets and two pairs and even his bluff range is going to have the ace of diamonds which means the villian will have around 46% equity against us.
When calling the only hands we are hoping to see here is jj and qq. (villian might not even push with those hands as 20nl players are generally passive as seen pre flop)
Let's have a close look at the villain. They flat a standard preflop raise on the button (which of course widen's the blind's calling range and encourages a multi-way pot).
Then to a raise and a flat they overbet shove the lot into the middle.
There is no way to put him on pocket aces here, and pocket aces with the Ad is the only hand we are really in bad shape against. If this happened to me I think they have either made the flush but not the nut flush or more likely they have AdX (leaning towards AdKX & AdQx). If I had AdKx in the villian's spot, I know I'm squeezing or folding.
To Lynx and others, yes I know you are also never in great shape (unless you've got some crazy fool with KT) but you have a good edge in enough spots to make it a call.
FWIW this is turning out to be one of the better discussions in the clinic.
I want to make it absolutely clear that i did not intend this to be a "bad beat" or a moany thread... in fact, far from it!
I am not a great player, but i do aspire to become one in the very long term. My motivation behind posting this hand was to find out whether this was a complete no brainer call... do i worry too much about getting my money in?
Or, was i right to be hesitant but right to ultimately call because of the likelihood of being ahead over time? Or should i just know im behind and fold?
The greatest players in the world can save money when placed in situations such as this. And i would dearly have loved to have found the fold that i so wanted to make... but even if i did, would it have been the right fold in a cash players mindset??? this is what i find interesting because im not a cash player, and my sng and mtt background wants to find the fold...
One could of course trivialise this and say its just down to AA vs KK and all the money goes in. Imo, this is a very simplistic and does not take into account the stacks of 150bbs + each. The thing is, i want to save every penny i can, that is my mindset when i think i could be behind. Others choose to gamble, i will always aim to try to find a way of getting out of a situation when i could be behind, maybe i am wrong...
love it, thanks guys...
With the money we have already put in the pot we need 43.31% equity to call and agaisnt this range TT-AA,88,44,t8s,t8o we have 56.7% equity,also you have to include all the Adx hands which we have 55% equity against.
Even if the villian would push with all the smaller made flush hands (which is debatable) there is not enough hand combinations to make this a fold.
I am finding it hard to put what I want to say into words but here go's. Perhaps this hand is a cooler, but I think that you can get off coolers, and obviously this is dependent on the situation. I try to discount the "this is +ve in the long run" mindset, primarily because I'm a nit that hates to lose any amount, no matter how small. So I tend to play on instincts, which are correct most of the time. With no reads on the player, however, this all goes out the window. You have to either go on the maths, or just fold and say that you can find a better spot later on.
Having said all of that, and coming from a micro-stakes background, I would find it almost impossible to find a fold in 15 seconds.
Interesting hand.
Will
Its refreshing to see a post which actually has some discussion between the regs and lets us think about the hand for more than a minute :-)
I have been successful with a generally nitty style for some time in a variety of games. This means i will never lose money at poker at the very least. But i wont win very much either. i could opt to play this way forever and enjoy my poker with very little risk.
However, the other option, is to expand my skill set by listening to the online pros with their maths and +ev stuff, because it is clearly successful for them. In the short term this may lose me money while i am learning this style properly.But if i really want to improve and become a more successful player, i don't see that i have any other option, as much as it goes against the grain. Wish me luck!