295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??

BURNShurtz

Hello people, for the last week or so i thought id have a look at my game to see why i cant win anything at poker.i don't use any fancy software for tracking things so i only had my tourney info from sky to go by. so i went through every tourney iv played on sky which equalled 258 tournaments. i then counted how many times id gone all-in and if i was ahead or behind in the hand and what the outcome was. so here we go.
258 tournaments played
All-in = 295
ahead pre flop   = 276 ( 19 behind )
ahead after flop = 254 ( 22 behind )
ahead after turn = 228 ( 26 behind )
ahead after river = 41  ( 187 behind )

Where i moved All-in
All-in pre flop   =183
All-in on flop    = 79
All-in turn card = 27
All-in on river   = 6

what got me about this was the big leap from leading in 228 hands after the turn card then losing a massive 187 hands on the river card. on the plus side at least i'v get my money in when ahead i alot.
i dont know if there is any value in what i found but i was surprised by how many i lost on the river.
now for my question,
Can you be so unlucky that you shouldn't play or do you stick with in and hope your luck changes?? 

POKERTREV

It's difficult to assess just on these statistics without being able to see all your pre-flop hole cards, however, looking at the amount of times you were behind on the River, I would say that you are most likely over valuing your hole cards.

There are not too many hands where you are going to shove all-in pre-flop AA, KK, QQ, are the obvious choices but table position should also be considered before making your shove. You should be careful not to overvalue starting hands such as JJ, 1010, AK, AQ, AJ and smaller pairs. These type of hands are worth a raise pre-flop but should then be re-assessed.

Small pairs such as 22, 33, 44, 55 etc should in my opinion be automatically folded to any raise pre-flop and a lot of the time I don't even bother flat calling them.

To be honest it does'nt matter whether your hole cards go behind on the flop, the turn or the river, your statistics show that once all the community cards are dealt they are usually behind which is why I think you may be over valuing them.

Best of Luck
Pokertrev.

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

It's difficult to assess just on these statistics without being able to see all your pre-flop hole cards, however, looking at the amount of times you were behind on the River, I would say that you are most likely over valuing your hole cards. There are not too many hands where you are going to shove all-in pre-flop AA, KK, QQ, are the obvious choices but table position should also be considered before making your shove. You should be careful not to overvalue starting hands such as JJ, 1010, AK, AQ, AJ and smaller pairs. These type of hands are worth a raise pre-flop but should then be re-assessed. Small pairs such as 22, 33, 44, 55 etc should in my opinion be automatically folded to any raise pre-flop and a lot of the time I don't even bother flat calling them. To be honest it does'nt matter whether your hole cards go behind on the flop, the turn or the river, your statistics show that once all the community cards are dealt they are usually behind which is why I think you may be over valuing them. Best of Luck Pokertrev.
Posted by POKERTREV

dont see where the overvalue part comes in? thought the idea was to get your money in when your ahead?

BURNShurtz

hole cards list for POKERTREV
AA=58 times
KK=43 times
AK=28 times
AQ=16 times
QQ=29 times
 JJ=25 times
AJ=12 times
AT=19 times
KQ=16 times
QJ=21 times
TJ=7 times
TT=11 times
99=8 times
88=2 times
these are my hole cards for the 295 hands, if you want to know how each hand played il post them on here you but it mite take some time. 

BlackFish3

It looks like you are not going all in enough. Surely you have to shove with air a lot to steal the blinds? You are almost only all in once per tournament!

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

It looks like you are not going all in enough. Surely you have to shove with air a lot to steal the blinds? You are almost only all in once per tournament!
Posted by BlackFish3

its tough to push all-in more when your already out!!

LOL_RAISE

i imagine it is only when he is all in and gets a call

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

i imagine it is only when he is all in and gets a call
Posted by LOL_RAISE

oh is this right OP?

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : oh is this right OP?
Posted by BlackFish3

what does op mean? if its for me then 295 is my number of total all-ins........

BelovedLtd

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : dont see where the overvalue part comes in? thought the idea was to get your money in when your ahead?
Posted by BURNShurtz

Getting your money in when you're ahead is better than getting all your money in when you're behind.

But it's usually better to not get all your money in.

If the blinds are 25/50 and you have 10,000 chips and get dealt 33 do you shove?

You could get called by AQos, KQs and 78s - you will have got your money in ahead but there's a 2 in 3 chance that you'll lose the hand.

If you already 'get' that part of it, that probably means you only shove when you're getting short stacked.

But how short stacked?

If the blinds are 25/50 and you have 10,000 chips and get dealt 33 and somebody before you shoves - but they only have 300 chips, do you call?

Obviously you (should) call. Which demonstrates the other end of the scale, if you're too short stacked when you shove you're going to be called light, if that happens often enough a fair few of them are going to be outdraws.

Generally speaking you can't generally tell much from the statistics for all ins, whether you're lucky or unlucky in them is far too dependant on factors unique to each hand.

You could post all in hands up for analysis, but if you do just keep on getting unlucky then there's not much you can do about it.

BelovedLtd

btw some of your numbers are a bit confusing like

"ahead after river = 41  ( 187 behind )"

If you've been all in 295 times, shouldn't that add up to 295?

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : Getting your money in when you're ahead is better than getting all your money in when you're behind. But it's usually better to not get all your money in. If the blinds are 25/50 and you have 10,000 chips and get dealt 33 do you shove? You could get called by AQos, KQs and 78s - you will have got your money in ahead but there's a 2 in 3 chance that you'll lose the hand. If you already 'get' that part of it, that probably means you only shove when you're getting short stacked. But how short stacked? If the blinds are 25/50 and you have 10,000 chips and get dealt 33 and somebody before you shoves - but they only have 300 chips, do you call? Obviously you (should) call. Which demonstrates the other end of the scale, if you're too short stacked when you shove you're going to be called light, if that happens often enough a fair few of them are going to be outdraws. Generally speaking you can't generally tell much from the statistics for all ins, whether you're lucky or unlucky in them is far too dependant on factors unique to each hand. You could post all in hands up for analysis, but if you do just keep on getting unlucky then there's not much you can do about it.
Posted by BelovedLtd

if you take a look at my starting hands you will see that i try not to play mid to low pairs. as for being short stacked, alot of these hands happened soon into the tourney, for example raising on the button with AA getting reraised and me re re raisin all-in get called by KT who then flops a str. 
i cant do anything about that unless i start folding every hand.

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

btw some of your numbers are a bit confusing like " ahead after river = 41  ( 187 behind )" If you've been all in 295 times, shouldn't that add up to 295?
Posted by BelovedLtd

it does

TRIP5

Some excellent advice on this thread boys....

My tourney play is literally cr@p but my cash game is stirling...however...as I'm trying to crack tourneys then any insight is brilliant!!!!

Keep up the good work...More comments PLEASE!!!

xxx

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

Some excellent advice on this thread boys.... My tourney play is literally cr@p but my cash game is stirling...however...as I'm trying to crack tourneys then any insight is brilliant!!!! Keep up the good work...More comments PLEASE!!! xxx
Posted by TRIP5

shove lots lol.

LOL_RAISE

beloved i also thought about them adding upto 295, but then just assumed that the rest were chops and so neither counted as ahead or behind, although this means that you chopped nearly 70 times out of ~300

TRIP5

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : shove lots lol.
Posted by BlackFish3

LOL

I heard somewhere (probably Uncle Teek on 865) that if you go all in 5 times every match then you'll only cash 1 in 4...

Personally I'd rather cash in 4, but not at the expense of winning in 1!!!!!

xxx

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : LOL I heard somewhere (probably Uncle Teek on 865) that if you go all in 5 times every match then you'll only cash 1 in 4... Personally I'd rather cash in 4, but not at the expense of winning in 1!!!!! xxx
Posted by TRIP5

well it depends on if you go in ahead or behind... if you go all in with AA v KK 5 times then you can expect to win 4 out of the 5 times.

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything??:

In Response to Re: 295 tournament all-ins, does it mean anything?? : LOL I heard somewhere (probably Uncle Teek on 865) that if you go all in 5 times every match then you'll only cash 1 in 4... Personally I'd rather cash in 4, but not at the expense of winning in 1!!!!! xxx
Posted by TRIP5

Wrong strategy!

Winning 1 in 5 tournaments and losing the other 4 is much more profitable than getting a min cash in 4 out of 5.

For example in last nights £2 TOT the min cash was £3.74
 
4 x £3.74 = £14.96
 
First prize was £100.98.

You would need to average 5th place in your 4 cashes to get the same profit as 1 win.

Go FTW.

BlackFish3

gary what she said was rather than winning 1 out of 4 tournaments she would rather cash in them all but NOT at the expense of a win. In other words she wants to cash every tournament preferably by winning.

GaryQQQ

Oh yeah, sorry, that's what happens you post in a hurry at 2-00am.

BTW, is the birth of a new kind of bad beat thread?

Instead of the usual method of quoting individual bad-beats, the OP is giving us his hard luck story by a statistical method, ie when he gets all-in he's nearly always ahead until the river card.