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Lesson: How to get the maximum expectation from your hand
harvey23
Member Posts: 433
http://weaktight.com/2468686
not many reads on villian so far, he does not have auto top up on, so i am already assuming he is a weaker player.
pre flop: they raise pre x3, with my limited info , i decide not to 3bet because it sucks when they 4bet us and we only have KJo, plays preetty well IP against someone who we consider we are better then.
flop: we hit a open ender and villain bets pot, i think there is a lot of merit for rasing but against but even against a hand like AT we are around 46% and vs AQ 37%. So im not too thrilled to get it in. so i decide to flat.
turn: we turn the nuts, however there is now a diamound draw. Villain against bets pot of $9, at this point I have got there range at sets, two pairs or overs KK-AA or bluffs . Given we said villian is a weaker play for not having a full stack, they are most likely stacking off with all the hands i have given them (expect bluffs). Given there betting I would say 85% of there range seems like a value range, and perhaps 15% of the time bluffs. If this player was a reg/full stack, i would sway more to 95% value and 5% bluffs.
Since we assume they are going to get the money all in with the hands we said above, what is our move?
Do we shove or flat?
You may think we should shove this, in case we get outdawn by AK that has a gutter some TP+FD, or if a set turns into quads/full house on the river then we cry bad beat.
Given our thoughts already we know Villian is most likely going to stack off all them hands on the river regardless, he may slow down if a KJ hits the river, but we hold two in our hands so its less common.
So at this point I have decided I am going to stack off on the river regardless. of villains 100% percerviced range, we have given him 85% value and 15% bluffs . I am only thinking how do I extract more value for villians bluffs?? by flat calling and hoping he bets the river with his blufs.
River: Villian pot the river again, at this point we have the nuts, so we shove, and notice that villian folds, they only have to call $7.23 to win a pot just over $92.
By shoving the turn we would of folded out villains 15% bluff range, instead we flatted trying to maximise our expectation for this hand which we did. Sure sometimes they have a set/fd and hit a boat/flush on the river, but poker is all about the long term, and if we did this play 100000 times, by flatting all the way against the this type of player we keep there range as wide as possible, where if we raised the turn, we shut out all there bluffs.
If you think I played the hand wrong on any street, please let me know.
ps: its late so i may have worded some stuff wrong, if i said anything that does not make sense please post.
not many reads on villian so far, he does not have auto top up on, so i am already assuming he is a weaker player.
pre flop: they raise pre x3, with my limited info , i decide not to 3bet because it sucks when they 4bet us and we only have KJo, plays preetty well IP against someone who we consider we are better then.
flop: we hit a open ender and villain bets pot, i think there is a lot of merit for rasing but against but even against a hand like AT we are around 46% and vs AQ 37%. So im not too thrilled to get it in. so i decide to flat.
turn: we turn the nuts, however there is now a diamound draw. Villain against bets pot of $9, at this point I have got there range at sets, two pairs or overs KK-AA or bluffs . Given we said villian is a weaker play for not having a full stack, they are most likely stacking off with all the hands i have given them (expect bluffs). Given there betting I would say 85% of there range seems like a value range, and perhaps 15% of the time bluffs. If this player was a reg/full stack, i would sway more to 95% value and 5% bluffs.
Since we assume they are going to get the money all in with the hands we said above, what is our move?
Do we shove or flat?
You may think we should shove this, in case we get outdawn by AK that has a gutter some TP+FD, or if a set turns into quads/full house on the river then we cry bad beat.
Given our thoughts already we know Villian is most likely going to stack off all them hands on the river regardless, he may slow down if a KJ hits the river, but we hold two in our hands so its less common.
So at this point I have decided I am going to stack off on the river regardless. of villains 100% percerviced range, we have given him 85% value and 15% bluffs . I am only thinking how do I extract more value for villians bluffs?? by flat calling and hoping he bets the river with his blufs.
River: Villian pot the river again, at this point we have the nuts, so we shove, and notice that villian folds, they only have to call $7.23 to win a pot just over $92.
By shoving the turn we would of folded out villains 15% bluff range, instead we flatted trying to maximise our expectation for this hand which we did. Sure sometimes they have a set/fd and hit a boat/flush on the river, but poker is all about the long term, and if we did this play 100000 times, by flatting all the way against the this type of player we keep there range as wide as possible, where if we raised the turn, we shut out all there bluffs.
If you think I played the hand wrong on any street, please let me know.
ps: its late so i may have worded some stuff wrong, if i said anything that does not make sense please post.
Comments
pretty, villain, diamond, perceived etc.
and also you have used there instead of their.
But not so much you can't get what you mean, and it was pretty interesting.
got it.
next lesson please harvey i feel on my way to durrrland already
Harvey, on two plus two why did you try to hide the fact that your back at 10nl?
In Response to Re: Lesson: How to get the maximum expectation from your hand: I dont know who the **** you are prob another 5nler who think its funny to call me out. Where did I say anywere I play 10nl. I play 50nl £$ and euro tables. Not that I need to prove anything to anyone as I have already showed my graphs before, ill do this one just for you darling.
http://i407.photobucket.com/albums/pp158/blackgerbil1/50nll.jpg?t=1279498118
this has to be a level.
Im sure DOOOHH and a few other higher regs will be able to understand this thread.
In Response to Re: Lesson: How to get the maximum expectation from your hand: http://i407.photobucket.com/albums/pp158/blackgerbil1/50nlrushgraph.jpg?t=1276888776
is this enough for you, I just posted a thread making people awear of what maximum expecatation is and how to improve as players. I dont think there is any need to call me out saying the lying accusations that you did.
I play at 50nl, but what does it matter, some people who play poker could prob beat 100nl, but unforntaly they do no have the funds to play it for whatever reasons, is that funny to you and we should laugh at them? no stop being so pathetic, if you dont want to contritbute to this thread just ingore it and move on. If you wish to help or critque then you are most welcomed too.
He's hilarious.
Although you do look hot when your antagonising blackfish