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CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND)

J-HartiganJ-Hartigan Member Posts: 2,756
edited July 2010 in The Poker Clinic
Here's an actual hand from the penultimate day of the World Series of Poker Main Event.

The players involved are Italy's Filippo Candio and America's Joseph Cheong. I appreciate many of you have already read the hand history on PokerNews.com, but I'm going to pose it as a question (without spoilers).

We're playing the hand from Candio's perspective.  At this point, 20 players remain.  The blinds are 80,000/160,000/20,000.

Candio raises with 7s5s.  Cheong three-bets - making it 1.125 million. Candio makes the call in position.  Thoughts?

Flop = 6c-6h-5c

Cheong bets 1.5 million.  Candio dwells and then raises to 4.425 million (leaving himself 12.1 million behind).  Thoughts?

Cheong tanks.  And then moves all-in.  He has Candio covered.  The Italian will be at risk if he makes the call.  So...

SHOULD HE CALL?

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Comments

  • lynx3ffectlynx3ffect Member Posts: 452
    edited July 2010
    remarkably similar to a post by the don90 with his pocket 8s lol, with the standard "i put u on AK"

    think his play is horrid on all streets, i guess you can excuse pre flop as they're so deep but on the flop theres no value in raising as you get nothing other than hands you beat already to fold and miss out on bluff value on later streets

    calling the 3 bet shove on the flop is so sick its untrue, almost as bad as the 46m pot with JJ vs AA when the guy rivers a straight with JJ :-/
  • BlackFish3BlackFish3 Member Posts: 2,418
    edited July 2010
    yo james
    The call pre would depend on stack sizes, abilities of the players etc...
    I don't really think Candio needs to turn his hand into a bluff on that flop, it's likely he only gets called/jammed on by hands that beat him. I think i would either fold or float the flop and reevaluate turn depending on factors such as reads and stack sizes.
    I dont think I could call Cheong's shove. I'd put him on at least an over pair and possibly hands like A6s 67s etc if he's 3 betting light. I just really don't think Candio needs to call here.

    Now time for me to find out what happened :D
  • harvey23harvey23 Member Posts: 433
    edited July 2010
    myself, if im rasing on that flop im only doing it because I think I am ahead, rasie folding pretty much the wrost play you can make here imo.

    id call, but if i was playing i would of folded pre, because I know i could bust most of the table later on
  • MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    myself, if im rasing on that flop im only doing it because I think I am ahead, rasie folding pretty much the wrost play you can make here imo. id call, but if i was playing i would of folded pre, because I know i could bust most of the table later on
    Posted by harvey23
    How's your preparation for November going?
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited July 2010
    12.1 million behind? absolute madness.

    I think it's time for the guy to swallow his pride here, just fold the hand without even thinking, snap muck his cards, then try to forget the hand ever took place.

    Walk away from the table for ten minutes and think about what a great/once in a lifetime position he is in.

    I wonder how lolufold feels reading this, having played a shortish stack brilliantly for so long, without getting the break to build a stack this big, and he sees a guy spewing this spectacuarly. Even to an extent Tony and Sue (relative stack sizes), who went on a 2 day grind where 1 mistake wud be the end....and they showed the resilliance to come through.

    It's like winning a million quid on the lottery 1 week, then deciding the next week is the time to re-invest 500k, on 500 thousand more tickets.

    Krazy.

    Fold, it's only a 5.6 million hit, with 12m behind.....
  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited July 2010
    As soon as he got re-raised i would of been out of there, definately overplayed this here imo

    Personally would have not got involved which such a hand, am i right in saying this is 10 handed??

    even though hero has clearly got alot of chips here dont think 75 suited is a good hand to call with even with position. dont blame the re-raise from the flop and would have to fold/muck in this spot as only hand your beating is a bluff and its for your tournament life
  • J-HartiganJ-Hartigan Member Posts: 2,756
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    As soon as he got re-raised i would of been out of there, definately overplayed this here imo Personally would have not got involved which such a hand, am i right in saying this is 10 handed?? even though hero has clearly got alot of chips here dont think 75 suited is a good hand to call with even with position. dont blame the re-raise from the flop and would have to fold/muck in this spot as only hand your beating is a bluff and its for your tournament life
    Posted by YOUNG_GUN
    I believe they were playing seven-handed (20 players = two tables of seven and one of six).

    Candio started the hand with >100bbs so flatting the three-bet in position with 7s5s isn't horrible.

    As for what happened next?  I think almost everyone's on the money!

    But I'm slightly surprised that harvey would make the call...

  • J-HartiganJ-Hartigan Member Posts: 2,756
    edited July 2010

    *** SPOILER ALERT ***



    So, Candio made the call.

    Cheong showed AcAs - making him 87% favourite to win the hand and eliminate the Italian.

    Turn = 8s

    River = 4c

    Yep.  Runner-runner straight cards.  Candio doubled up and became chip leader!

    In my opinion, he butchered the hand post-flop.  But I'm not going to berate the guy TOO much.  Playing intense tournament poker for eight consecutive days is not easy.  You are going to get tired; you are going to make mistakes.  And this was obviously a HUGE mistake on his part.


  • BlackFish3BlackFish3 Member Posts: 2,418
    edited July 2010
    Is candio any good? Or just a tourist with $10k spare?
  • Mr_MiyagiMr_Miyagi Member Posts: 2,031
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    Is candio any good? Or just a tourist with $10k spare?
    Posted by BlackFish3
    He's Italian.
  • BlackFish3BlackFish3 Member Posts: 2,418
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND) : He's Italian.
    Posted by Mr_Miyagi
    I think that explains the hand tbh.
  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave Member Posts: 3,288
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    *** SPOILER ALERT *** So, Candio made the call. Cheong showed AcAs - making him 87% favourite to win the hand and eliminate the Italian. Turn = 8s River = 4c Yep.  Runner-runner straight cards.  Candio doubled up and became chip leader! In my opinion, he butchered the hand post-flop.  But I'm not going to berate the guy TOO much.  Playing intense tournament poker for eight consecutive days is not easy.  You are going to get tired; you are going to make mistakes.   And this was obviously a HUGE mistake on his part.
    Posted by J-Hartigan
    This is why I love poker. On first inspection, the hand was played insanely badly post-flop by the Italian with 75s. When something like this goes down, you begin to wonder what has gone on before to set up such a weird spot/bad play/chip spew as this.

    Firstly, let's clarify that this is horrendously bad play to call post flop for his WSOP tournament life.

    If we take a look at the maths of the situation, we are calling off our tournament life with a very strong chance that we're drawing to two outs (or some sick runner-runner). Let's say Cheong's 3betting Candio with 10% of his starting hands. That makes his range:

    88+,
    A9s+
    KTs+,
    QTs+
    AJo+
    KQo

    Personally, I think that range is kind of nasty - I'd be far more likely 3 betting with hands such as 98s and 22 than A9, but that's an aside. Even if we remove some of the less likely 3betting hands such as A9s and QTs and chuck in some suited connectors and smaller pairs to make it a 12.5% range he is doing this with, we still don't compare at all well. Here's what a 12.5% range looks like:

    44+
    AJs+
    KTs+
    QJs
    JTs
    T8s+
    97s+
    87s
    AJo+
    KQo

    Let's settle on them being our preflop ranges. Which hands drop out of the mix given the action on the flop? We'd expect that Cheong's range narrows down to the following:

    12.5% preflop 3betting range now look like this post-flop (remember all the suited hands mentioned above now become club flush draws):

    44+
    AKcc/AQcc/AJcc/KQcc/KJcc/KTcc/QJcc/QTcc/JTcc/J9cc/T9cc/T8cc/98cc/97cc/87cc.


    The 10% preflop range now gets whittled down to:

    88+
    AKcc/AQcc/AJcc/ATcc/A9cc/KQcc/KJcc/KTcc/QJcc/QTcc

    How does Candio's hand look vs. these two ranges?

    vs 12.5% PFR

    Board: 6c 6h 5c
                    equity           win           tie                     pots won     pots tied   
    Hand 0:     73.497%      73.19%     00.30%              49998           207.50   { 44+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Th8h, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c }

    Hand 1:     26.503%        26.20%     00.30%              17897           207.50   { 7s5s }

    That's 73.5% vs 26.5%, near as damnit.

    vs 10% PFR

    Board: 6c 6h 5c
                    equity          win            tie                     pots won        pots tied   
    Hand 0:     80.981%      80.94%     00.04%              41669            20.00   { 88+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc }
    Hand 1:     19.019%      18.98%     00.04%              9771              20.00   { 7s5s }

    Let's call that one 81% v 19%.

    Cliffnotes of that lot: vs a wide three-betting range from Cheong, we need the pot to offer 3-1 to make a call correct. If Cheong is considered tighter, we need 4-1. That's without weighting the ranges more to overpairs than to bluffs/draws.

    The pot size is at 3.01m preflop, then the postflop action sees 4.5m of Candio's stack in the middle raised over the top of, so 9m (4.5m from both players) plus preflop 3.01m makes it 12m in there PLUS the 12.1 Candio will win if he puts his remaining chips over the line. 24.11m vs 12.1m is a touch worse than 2-1, so this is a pretty clear fold.

    That's the maths done. As for the tournament situation, I nearly fell out of my seat when I saw he'd put his stack in with bottom pair. Even if Cheong is bluffing with utter tosh here, (let's make up any old hand, such as Q9, giving him just two overs), we've still got to fade six outs twice, plus some of the villains own sick runner runner combinations. It would be a great call in that instance, but he's going to about 70% favourite. I reckon that with 75BBs I could fold and find a better spot to play.

    The more I think about the hand, the more it makes me feel queasy. But, as I said at the very top, there is normally an explanation for these kinds of calls, and we only have to look to the hand before to find out what happened. This from a reputable poker news website:

    "There was an issue that came up on the main feature table where Joseph Cheong bet the board of As-9s-5h-8c into Filippo Candio. Candio went forward with chips, released them and then pulled them back before releasing his cards according to the tournament staff. The cards didn't touch the muck and it was ruled that Candio called the bet and would get his cards back.

    The river was the 4h and Cheong fired another bet. Candio called again. Cheong showed a set of nines and Candio mucked.

    Candio was upset he lost the hand and his rail section began commenting and complaining before the announcer warned them to be quiet."


    So, our story has some background and that may well have played into Candio's thinking when making this seemingly horrendous call. Maybe he felt Cheong was taking advantage of his obvious tilt, or perhaps he just wanted to get rid of the tilt by making some amazing hero call. Either way, he would have been a lot happier after he hit his crushing runner-runner straight.

    The hand in isolation is horrific. The hand in context is so much more interesting...
  • Mr_MiyagiMr_Miyagi Member Posts: 2,031
    edited July 2010
    wow dave, you should work for skypoker or something.
  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop Member Posts: 3,795
    edited July 2010
    wow that a pretty epic post skydave!!!!

    what do you do for sky???

  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave Member Posts: 3,288
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    wow that a pretty epic post skydave!!!! what do you do for sky???
    Posted by donkeyplop
    Web Editor, Poker Strategy Guru, Champion of the The Poker Clinic, Occasional TV Analyst, Ex-journo who still chokes on his cornflakes when he reads through hand histories... what don't I do, donkeyplop?

    To be honest, I actually wrote some thoughts on this hand this morning but then noticed Mr Hartigan had brought it up on the forums, so simply waited for the spoiler before venting my strategy spleen :)
  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop Member Posts: 3,795
    edited July 2010
    good work skydave i think you should get in front of that camera with all that poker wisdom!!!!!!

    good stuff sir.

    oh and if you get a minute can you have a look at my hand in this section where im faced with a tricky spot on the river!!! cheers! (thread title call or fold) :)
  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited July 2010
    James i personally think it is a bad call pre, although im sure this depends mainly on cheong's 3 betting range

    unless Cheong would 3 bet with any 2 i think this is poor, you going to either have to outplay your opponent post flop or represent a much better hand but again that depends on their history. Or the alternative you have to get very lucky on the flop, which he did not and still chose to carry on. deserved to lose the hand but that beauty of poker

    Well summed up Sky Dave i defo want to watch a show when your the analyst you know your shizzle :o)
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited July 2010
    Ofcourse he should call, that's why he raised flop!


    Raise SNAP CALL ftw.


  • BlackFish3BlackFish3 Member Posts: 2,418
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    Ofcourse he should call, that's why he raised flop! Raise SNAP CALL ftw.
    Posted by beaneh
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    soz got carried away. He's italian so he has to call.
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND):
    In Response to Re: CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND) : bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean bean  soz got carried away. He's italian so he has to call.
    Posted by BlackFish3

    no he raised the flop himself on a paired board, he cant be doing that to fold!
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