In Response to Re: How much should I raise here? : if we make it 93 it's 60 to cawl into 191.25 if we shove it's 186.33 to cawl into 317.58 , big diff in the odds he is getting (191.25/60 [or just />3:1] vs 317.58/186.33 [or ~1.7:1]) Posted by beaneh
yep mathematically cant argue with ya. however like Harvey has already said by re-raising the river to £80-90 we are kind of telling our opponent "i have a flush". a shove on the river does look more bluffy, and we are getting max value from hands that would call a £90 re-raise - which imo would be only flushes or sets. any other hand probably folds anyway, so you may as well try and get max value from your hand. if you was the villian in this hand would you fold a K or Q flush to a shove? would u fold any flush to a shove? ...
In Response to Re: How much should I raise here? : yep mathematically cant argue with ya. however like Harvey has already said by re-raising the river to £80-90 we are kind of telling our opponent "i have a flush". a shove on the river does look more bluffy, and we are getting max value from hands that would call a £90 re-raise - which imo would be only flushes or sets. any other hand probably folds anyway, so you may as well try and get max value from your hand. if you was the villian in this hand would you fold a K or Q flush to a shove? would u fold any flush to a shove? ... also i think alot of players would struggle to lay down a set here so they would prob pay u off aswell. Posted by Eagle26
i think the original bet of 120 into the vilain with 180 behind if hes calling 120 hes calling 180, is there a argument for the overbet if you would do this with your air to against a thinking player?
In Response to Re: How much should I raise here? : yep mathematically cant argue with ya. however like Harvey has already said by re-raising the river to £80-90 we are kind of telling our opponent "i have a flush". a shove on the river does look more bluffy, and we are getting max value from hands that would call a £90 re-raise - which imo would be only flushes or sets. any other hand probably folds anyway, so you may as well try and get max value from your hand. if you was the villian in this hand would you fold a K or Q flush to a shove? would u fold any flush to a shove? ... Posted by Eagle26
I wouldn't be playing the river this way so I wouldn't be in this sort of situation.
If oppo has a low flush then it's purely a case of what you think he will call more often.
ok you wouldnt be in this situation. whatever the hand of the villian he has played it extremly wierd, hands like KQ/KJ/K-10/QJ/Q-10/J-10/67/23 clubs are all possible (and most probable in real time) or some very weirdly played set, straight or 2 pair (most probable now as we know villian folded to scottys re-raise)... however in the moment im putting villian on some sort of flush-hopefully not 6-7 and im shovin the lot for max value, no way is the villian folding the majority of those hands to a shove (especially given scottys rep)
looking a bit deeper, what do you reckon his pf range is in this spot?
imo his weakest flush is J flush but then again his line on the river suggests he is betting to get to showdown/set the price himself.
if you think he can play sets like this then i'd make a small raise, if you think he never has sets here with the river lead then I think shove is fine. I do think though that like 93/ai are the only two options.
looking a bit deeper, what do you reckon his pf range is in this spot? imo his weakest flush is J flush but then again his line on the river suggests he is betting to get to showdown/set the price himself. if you think he can play sets like this then i'd make a small raise, if you think he never has sets here with the river lead then I think shove is fine. I do think though that like 93/ai are the only two options. Posted by beaneh
i really cant make my mind up between set or flush, hes called from the blind so he must have a reasonably connected hand which would be 10j jq, would he call oop with that lower junk? i would tip more towards a set personally i dont like calling late raisers with them mid PPs but alot of regs do i think he checks turn for pot control then thin values blocks the river
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ok you wouldnt be in this situation. whatever the hand of the villian he has played it extremly wierd, hands like KQ/KJ/K-10/QJ/Q-10/J-10/67/23 clubs are all possible (and most probable in real time) or some very weirdly played set, straight or 2 pair (most probable now as we know villian folded to scottys re-raise)...
however in the moment im putting villian on some sort of flush-hopefully not 6-7 and im shovin the lot for max value, no way is the villian folding the majority of those hands to a shove (especially given scottys rep)