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the hand

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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited August 2010

    maths vs tournament survival

    hmmm



  • SHANXTASHANXTA Member Posts: 1,507
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    maths vs tournament survival hmmm
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    yep, that pretty much sums up the 2 sides 2 this debate!
  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    maths vs tournament survival hmmm
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    But if you do whats mathematically correct you're increasing your stack size over the long run, helping you to win more tournaments!
  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    The 3 bet size pre is the problem as I said. make it 5200 or shove. Once you do this it's a range+maths problem. ~8.8 to call into ~26 =3:1 or 25% equity win tie      pots won pots tied Hand 0: 27.626%   27.21% 00.42%       5590413    86133.00   { AhQh } Hand 1: 72.374%   71.95% 00.42%      14784969    86133.00   { QQ+ } equity win tie      pots won pots tied Hand 0: 25.410%   25.06% 00.35%       3861636    54240.00   { AhQh } Hand 1: 74.590%   74.24% 00.35%      11440620    54240.00   { KK+ } equity win tie      pots won pots tied Hand 0: 28.607%   27.30% 01.31%      11219088   537196.50   { AhQh } Hand 1: 71.393%   70.09% 01.31%      28801815   537196.50   { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Technically it's a correct call even if TK has only KK or AA. What that means is you increase your stack slightly every time you call.  THAT is a winning play.  The problem stems from the 3 decision/bet sizing pre. Once you make it this big don't fold, if you make it 5200 DO fold.
    Posted by beaneh
    if i raise to 5200 and he shoves, is his range still the same?
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    maths vs tournament survival hmmm
    Posted by GREGHOGG

    It's not about 'survival' and that's the whole point. Tournaments are about top heavy prize structures which is why you have to play for first, if we can either do a +chip play for a 40bb pot or fold and leave us 8 bb's you should do the +chip play all day long and thirty six times on sunday.


    In Response to Re: the hand:
    In Response to Re: the hand : if i raise to 5200 and he shoves, is his range still the same?
    Posted by freechips1



    theoretically no, nearly yes. Tis all about specific player reads etc.
  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited August 2010
    i think his range is wider if i only raise to 5200. 
    what is my % of winning the hand if his range is A,J+ and 10,10+ and also maybe air as he dont see me as pot stuck?
    Do i now still have to call vs his wider range?
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    i think his range is wider if i only raise to 5200.  what is my % of winning the hand if his range is A,J+ and 10,10+ and also maybe air as he dont see me as pot stuck? Do i now still have to call vs his wider range?
    Posted by freechips1



    with this player there is no 'air' air = AJ.

    Why cant you stove this yourself?!
    If you make it 5200 and he jams 16k what odds do you need to cawl? Compare that to the stoves below.

    equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied
    Hand 0:  37.822%   28.17%  09.65%        21705783    7437604.50   { AhQh }
    Hand 1:  62.178%   52.53%  09.65%        40472688    7437604.50   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


    equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied
    Hand 0:  45.422%   37.23%  08.20%        36333204    7999443.00   { AhQh }
    Hand 1:  54.578%   46.38%  08.20%        45269238    7999443.00   { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }

    equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied
    Hand 0:  41.378%   33.97%  07.41%        34896888    7614310.50   { AhQh }
    Hand 1:  58.622%   51.21%  07.41%        52612731    7614310.50   { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }


  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    In Response to Re: the hand : It's not about 'survival' and that's the whole point.Tournaments are about top heavy prize structures which is why you have to play for first, if we can either do a +chip play for a 40bb pot or fold and leave us 8 bb's you should do the +chip play all day long and thirty six times on sunday.
    Posted by beaneh
    Some players view tournament survival (i.e making a min cash) as essential to remain profitable players and therefore do not make "maths" calls that put their tournament lives at risk if they are clearly behind.

    Other types of players always go ftw every time making maths calls, and if enough volume is played over time this is too a profitable strategy and probably, but not necessarily, a more profitable strategy.

    I guess we all play mtts the way we are comfortable with tho.



  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    In Response to Re: the hand : Some players view tournament survival (i.e making a min cash) as essential to remain profitable players and therefore do not make "maths" calls that put their tournament lives at risk if they are clearly behind. Other types of players always go ftw every time making maths calls, and if enough volume is played over time this is too a profitable strategy and probably, but not necessarily, a more profitable strategy. I guess we all play mtts the way we are comfortable with tho.
    Posted by GREGHOGG

    If you are only ever playing for the min cash then you will be a losing tournie player because all the money is up top, it's that simple. You cant min cash every other event, in this instance putting in half your stack and then folding is a horrific result longterm and short term.

    The idea that you can be 'clearly behind' doesn't make sense if making the call is better than folding.

    Each to their own. :-)
  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited August 2010
    so i have 50% equity? so i have to call?
    i raise small i have to call, if i raise big i have to call?
    My raise size was to leave me enogh to grt back into it.
    i dont think i will ever call off my tourny life when i know im a 25% dog when i have 10 ish BB left, if i would of only had 6 BB left then i always call.
    Why didnt i stove it myself? come on you know i hate computers and all about them.
    I still think this is a on the fence thing, i prob think the best move was to shove pre b4 tikay.
    My thoughts at the time was to shove but then i thought i have a tight player sat behind and im only ever getting called when im a big dog so i will leave myself enough to shove over a open limp and also open btn shove on the blinds.
    I have to be honest im still very unsure if this was a good or bad fold, as said i dont want to call off my life as a 25% dog
  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited August 2010
    beaneh please read your first and last pots on this thread.
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited August 2010
    my first post is without running the numbers, similarly I also said i'd never rr to that much pre so i'd never be in such a stupidly close spot, if i'd made it 5200 I snap fold to the shove but lets be honest i've jammed this pre without even thinking; if he has a better hand behind so be it I plan to gettttt theeeeeeeere!
  • Nutter5932Nutter5932 Member Posts: 349
    edited August 2010
    Ola,

    The hand was a strange one from my point of view.

    The Maths etc says you have to call but I fold in your spot also unless I'm in a super gambling mood. Everyone knows Tony is pretty tight but even if you eliminate him from the equation and put say....lolufold in Tony's spot. Do you still fold ?

    Any good thinking player will notice instantly you have put half your stack in and expect you to call their shove 90% of the time from the BB with said action. What kind of hands do you expect to come up against at best ? 1010 or JJ ? In which case your flipping but the more likely hands AA/kk/QQ/AK your a pretty big dog and need to get lucky to double / survive.

    Personally I 3-bet less in that situation or more than likely jam pre. The beauty of poker is everyone plays differently but knowing your opponents range in that spot is pretty important and the whole of sky knew Tony's.


  • Shafty91Shafty91 Member Posts: 71
    edited August 2010
    My head hurts. :(
    Thats what maths does to me. :(
  • JockBMWJockBMW Member Posts: 2,653
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    Ola, The hand was a strange one from my point of view. The Maths etc says you have to call but I fold in your spot also unless I'm in a super gambling mood. Everyone knows Tony is pretty tight but even if you eliminate him from the equation and put say....lolufold in Tony's spot. Do you still fold ? Any good thinking player will notice instantly you have put half your stack in and expect you to call their shove 90% of the time from the BB with said action. What kind of hands do you expect to come up against at best ? 1010 or JJ ? In which case your flipping but the more likely hands AA/kk/QQ/AK your a pretty big dog and need to get lucky to double / survive. Personally I 3-bet less in that situation or more than likely jam pre. The beauty of poker is everyone plays differently but knowing your opponents range in that spot is pretty important and the whole of sky knew Tony's.
    Posted by Nutter5932

    Anyone else think Tony may have been using his image to his advantage, with sod all here ???

  • freechips1freechips1 Member Posts: 861
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: the hand:
    In Response to Re: the hand : Anyone else think Tony may have been using his image to his advantage, with sod all here ???
    Posted by JockBMW
    It was funny as tikay said he had A3, then he said he had A4. 
    The hand was shown on TV and he had KK.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited August 2010

    TK definitely exploits his image, but not in a hand like this.....

    He plays back at me with rubbish all the time, coz he never thinks I have anything.....

    But I know that he thinks that I never have nething, so can come back again.....

    When he learns that I know that he thinks I never have anything, then we cud get an all in pot for 60xbb with 7 high against 8 high !! :) lol
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