on the turn there are 9 outs from the 45 remaining cards which is 0.2. plus on the river there are 9 outs from the 44 remaining cards which is approx 0.2.
total probability is slightly less than 0.4. odds are therefore nearer to 5/2 or a perenctage chance of 39%
actual win chance is slightly lower as flush is beaten by quads, house etc and nears 35%
In tournys all u can do is put yourself in a good position as often as possible, and eventually u will win the important race, hit the jackpot cooler hand against the big stack, suck out when ur QQ is in pre v KK etc etc then go on to make the final table. Think u need a bigger sample size to judge someone MTT ability than u do cash.... At the start of any mtt, every player has a chance, just run super gudddddddddddd Posted by DOHHHHHHH
JJ U have hit the nail on the head here m8, I play very few MTTs as much prefer cash and seem to make a profit. I think with cash if you make a right call and they outdraw you which will happen a min of 30% of your good calls you can reload and win it back the next right call and as you are fav to win overall you will make a profit on these correct calls. With MTTs (some do rebuys) as a norm you can make a good call and if your outdrawn your gone regardless of the players ability he has sent back to the cash lobby!
hi daveyzz, you forgot there are two events. on the turn there are 9 outs from the 45 remaining cards which is 0.2. plus on the river there are 9 outs from the 44 remaining cards which is approx 0.2. total probability is slightly less than 0.4. odds are therefore nearer to 5/2 or a perenctage chance of 39% actual win chance is slightly lower as flush is beaten by quads, house etc and nears 35% regards Posted by aussie09
of course thanks,now i will never fold a flush draw again
Of course there must be players who are better than the average so must be considered "good".
As in any other sport/game it is often a matter of making less mistakes than the rest which makes the difference.
In cash games the distinction is clearer than in tournaments, where variance is a bigger factor.
But it is a fact that over the last couple of years the general standard of play has risen a lot on here. A while back there were a few players who could consistently win tournies. There are so many capable players around now that players with a big reputation can struggle and need to be on top of their game to succeed.
You only have to look at the results of the main nightly event over the last year, loads of different names. A couple of years back it was always the same faces at the final table.
But if you follow the results of the higher stakes deepstacks, the slight edge in talent that some players have still makes a difference.
It's been said a couple of times on this thread that cash players are the more skilled. That's like saying that sprinters are fitter than marathon runners, or that 400 metre runners are better than 800 metre runners. They are different disciplines of the same thing.
Most cash players play cash to earn money. The majority of mtt players I know don't have the time to grind away at the cash tables and mtts offer the chance to make money for less input and risk. I admire cash players for their dedication and ability and the very best are also profitable and very proficient tournament players. But I know a lot of mtt players who could turn a regular profit at cash if they had the inclination. IMO as llong as you play at the correct level to your skill, it's far easier to make a steady profit over a period of years from cash than from mtt's.
I've played cash from time to time and generally made a profit. The thing is I don't need to be profitable because I earn far more than I probably could playing poker and so tournaments fullfil a need. The fact that I show a profit too is a bonus. This isn't an attempt to degrade cash players in any way, as I said I admire their dedication and skill, but I know that the skill isn't all at one end of the game. If it was the cash players would all be playing tournaments for the big bucks ....... and winning them all.
In Response to Re: good players?? or average players that just run good?? : of course thanks,now i will never fold a flush draw again Posted by DAVEYZZ
Interesting thread ! Of course there must be players who are better than the average so must be considered "good". As in any other sport/game it is often a matter of making less mistakes than the rest which makes the difference. In cash games the distinction is clearer than in tournaments, where variance is a bigger factor. But it is a fact that over the last couple of years the general standard of play has risen a lot on here. A while back there were a few players who could consistently win tournies. There are so many capable players around now that players with a big reputation can struggle and need to be on top of their game to succeed. You only have to look at the results of the main nightly event over the last year, loads of different names. A couple of years back it was always the same faces at the final table. But if you follow the results of the higher stakes deepstacks, the slight edge in talent that some players have still makes a difference. Posted by penguin7
Doesn't that sound a lot like the changes that have happened in the WSOP Main event over the last few years? Obviously happens live just as it does online
the good players maximise their profits when on a good run and minimise their losses when running bad the average player(not all) doesnt get this concept and carries on regardless imho...
Comments
on the turn there are 9 outs from the 45 remaining cards which is 0.2.
plus on the river there are 9 outs from the 44 remaining cards which is approx 0.2.
total probability is slightly less than 0.4. odds are therefore nearer to 5/2 or a perenctage chance of 39%
actual win chance is slightly lower as flush is beaten by quads, house etc and nears 35%
regards
Of course there must be players who are better than the average so must be considered "good".
As in any other sport/game it is often a matter of making less mistakes than the rest which makes the difference.
In cash games the distinction is clearer than in tournaments, where variance is a bigger factor.
But it is a fact that over the last couple of years the general standard of play has risen a lot on here. A while back there were a few players who could consistently win tournies. There are so many capable players around now that players with a big reputation can struggle and need to be on top of their game to succeed.
You only have to look at the results of the main nightly event over the last year, loads of different names. A couple of years back it was always the same faces at the final table.
But if you follow the results of the higher stakes deepstacks, the slight edge in talent that some players have still makes a difference.
Most cash players play cash to earn money. The majority of mtt players I know don't have the time to grind away at the cash tables and mtts offer the chance to make money for less input and risk. I admire cash players for their dedication and ability and the very best are also profitable and very proficient tournament players. But I know a lot of mtt players who could turn a regular profit at cash if they had the inclination. IMO as llong as you play at the correct level to your skill, it's far easier to make a steady profit over a period of years from cash than from mtt's.
I've played cash from time to time and generally made a profit. The thing is I don't need to be profitable because I earn far more than I probably could playing poker and so tournaments fullfil a need. The fact that I show a profit too is a bonus. This isn't an attempt to degrade cash players in any way, as I said I admire their dedication and skill, but I know that the skill isn't all at one end of the game. If it was the cash players would all be playing tournaments for the big bucks ....... and winning them all.
the average player(not all) doesnt get this concept and carries on regardless imho...