Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!

GREGHOGG

£11 buy in, 2,500 chips, level 1, blinds 10/20. 50+ runners. great slow structure.

Pick up 44 on button, decide to limp (comments?)

I have left Scotty's name in with his agreement. i assume we all know his mtt style but i will describe my thoughts on request.EDIT! not from Ryan!

Is the reraise a good size on the flop? and what do we do when we get serious action!

player X i had no information on at all!

Rubes375 Small blind  10.00 10.00 2470.00 latics-fan Big blind  20.00 30.00 2480.00   Your hole cards 4 4       scotty77 Call  20.00 50.00 1925.00 XCall  20.00 70.00 2480.00 Doudeau Fold     GREGHOGG Call  20.00 90.00 2470.00 Rubes375 Fold     latics-fan Check     Flop    3 4 5       latics-fan Check     scotty77 Bet  125.00 215.00 1800.00 XCall  125.00 340.00 2355.00 GREGHOGG Raise  460.00 800.00 2010.00 latics-fan Fold     scotty77 All-in  1800.00 2600.00 0.00 xCall  1800.00 4400.00 555.00
What should GREGHOGG do? What range of hands do we put Scotty on? What about our unknown mr X?

beaneh

preflop is perfect.

flop raise more and don't fold or call and reassess on the turn. there are tonnes of bad turns though so i'd just raise flop and get it in.

once someone else calls it's a fist pump you could actually have a decision if it was heads up because you'd be getting a worse price.

scotty77

I'm never ever folding 44 here.

Once you get the other call its even more of a fistpump shove.

You are dead to 55/A2d/67d.  Everything else that both of us have you have decent equity to fill up.  Snap it off all day long.

Note my chat box comments before I shoved. 

EDIT: if we had 33/J high flush or something then I can find a fold.  not this tho we have extensions to fill up and as i said before so little leaves us dead.

EDIT 2:  oh yeah thoughts on my MTT style plz!  slate me as much as poss

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

preflop is perfect. flop raise more and don't fold or call and reassess on the turn. there are tonnes of bad turns though so i'd just raise flop and get it in. once someone else calls it's a fist pump you could actually have a decision if it was heads up because you'd be getting a worse price.
Posted by beaneh

I did have a decision imo

I was snap calling Scotty even though i am putting him on 33, 55, 2 pair or a str8 (maybe a small flush), but our friend Mr X calling it smelt of a flopped flush, or something else v strong. Trying to work out the price in 15 seconds is not great and with the structure of the tournament a fold is not out of the question imo....(better spots may be available) I will show you the results later but a proper time bank would have been handy.

P.S i think Dohhhhhh will agree with you for once lol! He will lol so much at my question...

KAM99

Same as Scotty. Easy shove with the amount in middle and possible random hands you are likely about 50% equity. Might be early and a chance of going out, but still a shove for me.

scotty77

but our friend Mr X calling smelt of flopped flush

if you put Mr X on flush then call.  the only hand you should be worried about him having is 555.  the price is there.....

beaneh

You do understand that hu vs scotty the price you are getting is much worse than when another stack goes in?

you may well be behind vs 2 players but with this much in the pot and such a strong redraw hand it's a go gogo!

And DOhhh just disagress with me for the sake of it!

DOHHHHHHH

Snap fold.

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

You do understand that hu vs scotty the price you are getting is much worse than when another stack goes in? you may well be behind vs 2 players but with this much in the pot and such a strong redraw hand it's a go gogo! And DOhhh just disagress with me for the sake of it!
Posted by beaneh

This jumps out at me.. I want to stay in the tournament and i have plenty of chips and plenty of time if i do find a (very nitty obv) fold. Can i have one of your special equasion things please so i can try to understand this? I do have a maths Gcse, but its been a long time!

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

Snap fold.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

lol you do not mean this

beaneh

oh god

i'll make mistakes but yeah sure gimme a sec.

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

You do understand that hu vs scotty the price you are getting is much worse than when another stack goes in?you may well be behind vs 2 players but with this much in the pot and such a strong redraw hand it's a go gogo! And DOhhh just disagress with me for the sake of it!
Posted by beaneh

Oh Jesus im such an amateur

Yes i think i get it, but your equation thing will help...

can we also bear in mind that the poker gods have been screwing me over so much recently...

RedHouse

Am i missing something here.

Someone has either a made flush or streght so assuming you need to fill up you have 7 outs. and thats if one of your opponents isnt holding any of them.

So 28% chance to full house or quads. need 1:3 on your call. your getting 1:2.5 and risking your tournament life.

Verdict instant fold right?

beaneh

meh right here goes, I hadn't noticed that scotty over bet the flop which really doesn't help your equity because it basically skews him to made hands and things trying to get value on a draw heavy board.

Scotty limping utg is obviously with a speculative hand nearly always to try and flop big, there is some small percentage chance that he could have limped KK/AA hoping for a raise to rejam and get lots of monay in preflop.

My head pretty much explodes when trying to understand sky hand history stack sizes but here goes.

With a HU pot with Scotty where Mr X folds, I think we have to call ~1340 with ~2600 in the pot. so you need just over 34% equity when you are heads up with Scotty. edit cos im silly (1340/[1340+2600])

Having said that scotty is very much value based. If his range doesn't include the Kings/Aces so it's (55-33,A2s,76s,54s,43s)  then we have...

Board: 3d 4d 5d

Dead:  

         equity   win     tie                pots won      pots tied

Hand 0: 44.287%   40.75% 03.54%          6455      560.00   { 4c4h }

Hand 1: 55.713%   52.18% 03.54%          8265      560.00   { 55-33, A2s, 76s, 54s, 43s }

If we were to add in Aces and Kings (though I do think this is pretty unlikely).

Then-

Board: 3d 4d 5d

Dead:  

           equity   win            tie                pots won      pots tied

Hand 0: 56.129%   52.88% 03.25%         14657      902.00   { 4c4h }

Hand 1: 43.871%   40.62% 03.25%         11259      902.00   { KK+, 55-33, A2s, 76s, 54s, 43s }

Im rubbish....

Introducing the 3rd player into our thoughts, who i'm assuming has a wider range than scotty.

So with scottys range including AA/KK and with 

[JcJd,JdJh,JdJs, TcTd,TdTh,TdTs, 9c9d,9d9h,9d9s ,8c8d,8d8h,8d8s, 7c7d,7d7h,7d7s, 6c6d,6d6h,6d6s ,55-33, AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,A2s,KdQd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,8d6d,76s,54s,43s,AdQc,AhQd,AsQd,AdJc,AdJh,AdJs,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs,Ad6c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad5c,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad4c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad3c,Ad3h,Ad3s,A2o]

ie basically including most of the realistic overlimped flushes in the world, as well as sets and over pairs with a diamond, and overcards with high diamonds.

Board: 3d 4d 5d

Dead:  

            equity    win     tie      pots won  pots tied

Hand 0: 31.899%   30.98% 00.92%        489802    14572.17   { 4c4h }

Hand 1: 26.784%   25.32% 01.46%        400357    23137.17   { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KK, 55-33, A2s, 76s, 54s, 43s }

Hand 2: 41.317%   39.86% 01.46%        630194    23090.67   { JcJd, JdJh, JdJs, TcTd, TdTh, TdTs, 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 55-33, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, A2s, KdQd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 76s, 54s, 43s, AdQc, AhQd, AsQd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, Ad6c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, A2o }

Again we need 28 (1885/[1885+4945]). However we/I know nothing about Mr X and he could well be alot looser or tighter than i've given where alot more of his hands are drawing as opposed to made so our equity would go right up.

IE

Board: 3d 4d 5d

Dead:  

        equity    win tie               pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 34.409%   33.38% 01.03%        904932    27823.50   { 4c4h }

Hand 1: 25.368%   23.71% 01.66%        642734    44953.00   { KK+, 55-33, A2s, 76s, 54s, 43s }

Hand 2: 40.223%   38.57% 01.66%       1045460    44903.50   { JcJd, JdJh, JdJs, TcTd, TdTh, TdTs, 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 55-33, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, A2s, KdQd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 76s, 64s+, 62s, 52s+, 43s, AdQc, AhQd, AsQd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, Ad9c, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad8c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad7c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad6c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, A2o, 76o, 6d5c, 6d5h, 6d5s, 54o, 43o }

The reason in my initial post I say if you raise do a stack off is because yes limping for 20 is good, but raising to 500 and then folding is going to be bad whenever you hold a set pretty much. If you call the flop and it goes proper mental on the turn and or the turn comes bad then you have a much easier fold. 

Yes the tourny may seem well structured but the blinds are relatively fast and you have a set on a very wet board, i'd raise stack off all day long. I wouldn't be surprised if someone has flopped a flush with a suited connector or suited ace, it's quite plausible for scotty to have 33 or 55 since he limped in utg.

Does all of this make sense?

It's all pretty basic and has just involved me fiddling about with pokerstove for a few minutes. :-) (then checking my work and fixing it sigh)

GREGHOGG

Wow, cheers beaneh i really appreciate your efforts! thanks for your time and i might have a look at pokerstove soon (never been there!)

So are we agreeing that it is actually a decision now, and not a fist pump snap call? It is closer than u originally thought right?

Edit.   btw i folded... results to follow for results orientated peeps like dohhhhhh:)

beaneh

Well mathematically it's closer to a fold than a call if you think that 

a) scotty isn't folding after he overbets (Imo this is correct)

b) Mr x is somewhat hand selecting and not stacking off light (however with some of the hands i've been taken out of sky donkies with this can never be assumed imo)

IMO it is more of a mistake to raise fold the flop than it is to raise get it in. because of how many chips you just whizz up the wall with 100% frequency.

yb

Beaneh I'm pretty sure we need ~29% equity 3 way.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

Beaneh I'm pretty sure we need ~29% equity 3 way.
Posted by yb

you do the maths. stuipid hhs with money behind money in the pot, some money called others not allowed for.

either way that should be the easy bit LOL

just compare my red numbers to that figure.

honestly my head explodes trying to read these column things its so ridic.

beaneh

yeah its 28% so we're in happy land and I wasn't wrong initially yay

that means hu we need.... 34% hu lol. love how I can never understand these numbers. but do all the other guff.....

fml

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Very early hand in mtt, flop middle set on flushing board lots of action!:

Well mathematically it's closer to a fold than a call if you think that  a) scotty isn't folding after he overbets (Imo this is correct) b) Mr x is somewhat hand selecting and not stacking off light (however with some of the hands i've been taken out of sky donkies with this can never be assumed imo) IMO it is more of a mistake to raise fold the flop than it is to raise get it in. because of how many chips you just whizz up the wall with 100% frequency.
Posted by beaneh

imo a flat call is weak so i would NEVER do that on this board.

I choose a raise size that does not necessarily commit me imo, and when it kicks off, after letting the timer bar (15 secs ffs) run down, i sigh fold.

beaneh

What is 'weak' about a flat call.

don't listen to words like weak or aggressive and think they are the be all and end all. there is a time and a play for playing a hand passively aswell as for playing it fast and aggressively.

sorry about messing up the numbers (as usual ..... ) I should really proof read what I post just once llol especially when the numbers look that wrong when you read them back through.