It ws interviewing a pro poker player (cant remember who), but he tipped Binocular in the Champs Hurdle and said by the time the race goes off it will be a lot shorter than it was then - its my only bets I,ve had for Cheltenham, but I managed to get 11/2 (£20) and 5/1 £10 - just checked on Sky and its now 3/1, but still beleive if your gonna back it to back it now as I think it will go in further
Now I will make a very bold statement BINOCULAR will NOT win the Champion Hurdle this year. Sorry MP33 Father Vaigret Posted by vaigret
I agree, I think khyber kim has a good chance, 2nd in this last year I believe, loves Cheltenham and goes well fresh, ive had a small bet @25/1 current best price 16/1 thinking of back it again
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly this is my best bet of the festival..The horse has to defy the stats never ran at Cheltenham, No horse out of Monjeu has ever won at Cheltenham..Been beating the same horse over in Ireland time after time..Been running on soft ground bla bla..But i have no doubt this is the fastest horse in the race & has some star quality about him..This is the best race of the festival imo.
Neptune Novice Hurdle - So Young has been winning a few mickey mouse races in ireland in effortless style..No doubt short of the form needed to win this..But the trainer won this race in 2008 & 2009 and recentley put this horse up as his charity bet for the festival..I think theres plenty more left in the tank of this 1 and can see the irish getting stuck into either this or Oscars Well in the race..
Foxhunter Chase - Baby Run won this race last year and 3rd the year before..A game front runner who has won both starts this season..The 1 to beat
Also done a dreaming e/w acca Time For Rupert 9/4, Hurricane Fly 5/1, Baby Run 3/1, So Young 6/1, Quevega 11/10 & Big Bucks 11/10 £2.50 e/w to win around £6000..We can all dream..
Enjoy the festival and gl with all bets only 5days 5hours 23minutes & 26seconds left..Not that im counting lol
Hi guys, shame I missed the NAPS thread but will put a few thoughts up.
I have backed the following, in various different single and multiple bet types: Champion Hurdle - Binocular (win), Khyber Kim (each way)
Can't beat course and distance form at Cheltenham and though some say last year's race wasn't the strongest there can be no arguments with how easily Binocular won. Khyber Kim is over-priced and I have him at 25/1 each way.
Champion Chase - Big Zeb (win), Sizing Europe (eaxh way)
Same rationale as the CH, I am a huge Master Minded fan but I think his time has just passed. Cant have Woolcombe Folly, Sizing Europe is over-priced as the Arkle winners have a very good record in this race and have 12/1 each way
RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (win)
My banker of the week. Has the course and distance form, was easily the best hurdler, which is a good pointer. IMO the biggest certainty for this race since Denman (watch him lose easily now!). Backed him at 7/1 ante post but will be going in again on the day.
World Hurdle - Big Bucks (win)
Cannot see the reigning champ getting beaten and odds against is an excellent price
Ryanair - Albertas Run (each way)
The reigning champ is being seriously overlooked, has course and distance form, will get his trip and ground for first time this season. Have backed at 14/1 ante post
Supreme Novices - Cue Card (win)
Backed at 5/1 ante post. Not much of a backable price now but the most likely winner. Has easily the best form of any in the race.
Jewsons Novice Chase - Mr Gardner (each way)
Backed him at 25/1 after an impressive comeback at Sandown behind Medermit. Jumped really well and could go well at still a decent price
Arkle - Medermit (win)
I have no concerns about his temperament, for me is the class horse in the race
Gold Cup - Denman (each way), Kauto Star (each way)
Backed both at decent each way prices. If Long Run finds a rhythm he will probably win but I have my doubts
Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well (win)
Was very impressed by his last win in Ireland and backed him straight afterwards
National Hunt Chase - Chicago Grey (win)
Has easily the best form on offer against Time For Rupert and Quinz, if he stays he should win
Triumph Hurdle - Sam Winner (each way)
Think you can forget the Chepstow run, has some very good form and still a good price
Mares Hurdle - Banjaxed Girl (each way)
Quevega will ber very hard to beat but BJ is the 2nd highest rated horse and is a good each way price
shazallin, I wouldnt put you off that , I did it last year. I like 4 or five before i would back Binocular. Just cant see it winning, but i've been wrong before Bye the way I have just entered Racing Post Select a stable , bit of fun around the festival if you like kind of thing. £20000 first prize Father Vaigret Posted by vaigret
What are your selections, I enter this every year but never get any where.I have been out of touch this last hurdling season, normally i am up with all the info. So a bit of help needed.
Thank you kaymac, devine inspiration you know, just hope the Binocular supporters did it NRNB.
Hi Wynne
If you are talking about champion hurdle you wont go far wrong with Menorah or Peddlers cross, with regard the Racing Post Select a stable I have had the five stables for the cost of four so too many horses to list. anyway you are probably better sticking a pin in than following mine.
As you will see from the horses selected by the jackpot man and scoop 6 winner form doesnt count for much, its a lot of luck in the end.
I usually get good info every year for 3 or 4 horses in advance of the week which I will get tonight/tomorrow morning which I will post tomorrow morning.
However Ive did these as each way goliath
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 1.30 RECESSION PROOF 1.30 ARABELLA BOY 2.05 BALA FUNDLE 2.05 REALT DUBH 2.05 OSCARS WELL (SINGLE ALSO) 2.40 J"Y VOLE 4.40 ANOTHER JEWEL 2.40 BOSTONS ANGEL
Well on the basis that someone can win £1.4m on the Scoop Six and by his own admission isn't really a horse expert, i have studied the form and give you three horses you should probably advoid for two reasons... 1) I have selected them and 2) I am swayed by the fact they are all grey (probably wrong on that too!). I'm only having 25p patent so it won't hurt too much!
Tuesday 1.30pm AL FEROF 2.05pm MEDERMIT 2.40pm GREAT ENDEAVOUR
Good luck everyone, especially those betting with 'big money!!
Hi all, was meant to put up the goss from belfast preview night last mon nite, its pretty much wat ud expect so ill just very briefly put up 2 standout things\:
matt chapman from attheraces said he'd done previous panels with paul townend and he was waxing lyrical to him about 'so young' in the neptune, leaving matt to exclaim if it were a woman then paul townend would marry it!! andrew mcnamara also said that PT revealed to him secretly that hes been acting slightly coy on the mount in public when quizzed on its chances, this is solely because hes scared stiff of ruby ditching rock on ruby to ride instead (and after hurricane fly arrangements who can blame him??!!) so ive taken the hint on this one.
it was kind of what you'd expect tbh regarding main races, those higher in market being the tips.
the other thing i want to note tho is this; when outside the hotel having a quick smoke, got talkin randomly to some young whipper snapper, said his dad owns a leg in hurricane fly, so i quizzed them on their thoughts of his chances and tbh he hardly seemed confident/excited/hopeful (please delte as appropriate)so whether or not to take this wif a pinch of salt im not quite sure, after all shouting from the rooftops isnt always a good thing either......
tomorrows mug punter bet £2 lucky 15 done ante post:
spirit son 6/1 medermit 3/1 peddlers cross 5/1 (done 3 weeks ago on sky bet, wat else can i say, great value once again cough cough 13/2 other places @ the time!!) garde campetre 9/2
ill be backing spirit son in win single tomo as well and depending on how he gets on might let the others run, have a nice feeling about this!!!
4pts e/w sunnyhillboy, huge fan of great endeavour, biggest winner last year for me in byrne plate, 18/1 but the magic sign returned it at 25's!!! sunnyhillboy has been left seeing its backside the last few timnes theyve crossed paths but with rise in trip and better off @ weights i think he'll reverse form, meetss alot of the trends (OR 144 or under, first 4 in betting amongst others) these 2 the standout for me.
if bensalem stays on his feet he'll b e huge danger, really nicely handicapped, however thats a big, massive even, IF, considering his fencing is shoddy at best.
our father is going to have ocean transit vying for favourtism with quevega in the mares as i also will be having a small flutter e/w on his reasoning, however it is a much tougher race she finds herself in here.
last race, tullymore dew @ 9's and e/w saver vino gregio (25's)
gud luck to all heres hoping we've plenty to shout about this time tomorrow evening!!
Probably getting boring on this subject and the Mares Hurdle is terribly difficult to win with Quevega in it and according to Willie Mullins even better than last year. Also there is doubts my mare Ocean Transit, goes as well left handed and also it is not a handicap so she only gets 5lb from one of the best mares seen at Cheltenham, however at 50-1, I got 66-1, has to be given a chance. She has won twice over 2m 6f so will stay up the hill and number of winners have come out of the ludlow race, with two winning so easily.
Also Richard Price knows how to get a mare to win at Cheltenham, I still remember this like it was yesterday
i like your faith father but ocean transit is rated a mile below some of these horses,none handicap ,it will be staying on like you say,i personally think banjaxed girl i think its called is ew bet in this race,im on sparky may 7s ew which looks a bet to nowt,ive had a few bob on tommy stacks ew in the first at 22s ,
Comments
It ws interviewing a pro poker player (cant remember who), but he tipped Binocular in the Champs Hurdle and said by the time the race goes off it will be a lot shorter than it was then - its my only bets I,ve had for Cheltenham, but I managed to get 11/2 (£20) and 5/1 £10 - just checked on Sky and its now 3/1, but still beleive if your gonna back it to back it now as I think it will go in further
BINOCULAR
will NOT win the Champion Hurdle this year.
Sorry MP33
Father Vaigret
I wouldnt put you off that , I did it last year.
I like 4 or five before i would back Binocular.
Just cant see it winning, but i've been wrong before
Bye the way I have just entered Racing Post Select a stable , bit of fun around the festival if you like kind of thing. £20000 first prize
Father Vaigret
I have backed the following, in various different single and multiple bet types:
Champion Hurdle - Binocular (win), Khyber Kim (each way)
Can't beat course and distance form at Cheltenham and though some say last year's race wasn't the strongest there can be no arguments with how easily Binocular won. Khyber Kim is over-priced and I have him at 25/1 each way.
Champion Chase - Big Zeb (win), Sizing Europe (eaxh way)
Same rationale as the CH, I am a huge Master Minded fan but I think his time has just passed. Cant have Woolcombe Folly, Sizing Europe is over-priced as the Arkle winners have a very good record in this race and have 12/1 each way
RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (win)
My banker of the week. Has the course and distance form, was easily the best hurdler, which is a good pointer. IMO the biggest certainty for this race since Denman (watch him lose easily now!). Backed him at 7/1 ante post but will be going in again on the day.
World Hurdle - Big Bucks (win)
Cannot see the reigning champ getting beaten and odds against is an excellent price
Ryanair - Albertas Run (each way)
The reigning champ is being seriously overlooked, has course and distance form, will get his trip and ground for first time this season. Have backed at 14/1 ante post
Supreme Novices - Cue Card (win)
Backed at 5/1 ante post. Not much of a backable price now but the most likely winner. Has easily the best form of any in the race.
Jewsons Novice Chase - Mr Gardner (each way)
Backed him at 25/1 after an impressive comeback at Sandown behind Medermit. Jumped really well and could go well at still a decent price
Arkle - Medermit (win)
I have no concerns about his temperament, for me is the class horse in the race
Gold Cup - Denman (each way), Kauto Star (each way)
Backed both at decent each way prices. If Long Run finds a rhythm he will probably win but I have my doubts
Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well (win)
Was very impressed by his last win in Ireland and backed him straight afterwards
National Hunt Chase - Chicago Grey (win)
Has easily the best form on offer against Time For Rupert and Quinz, if he stays he should win
Triumph Hurdle - Sam Winner (each way)
Think you can forget the Chepstow run, has some very good form and still a good price
Mares Hurdle - Banjaxed Girl (each way)
Quevega will ber very hard to beat but BJ is the 2nd highest rated horse and is a good each way price
Pity you missed the Naps Table, from your selections and reasoning you would have been a strong fancy.
Good luck with all your bets, I just wish I had the money to lay Binocular to all you fans
Father Vaigret
So a bit of help needed.
Thank you kaymac, devine inspiration you know, just hope the Binocular supporters did it NRNB.
Hi Wynne
If you are talking about champion hurdle you wont go far wrong with Menorah or Peddlers cross, with regard the Racing Post Select a stable I have had the five stables for the cost of four so too many horses to list. anyway you are probably better sticking a pin in than following mine.
As you will see from the horses selected by the jackpot man and scoop 6 winner form doesnt count for much, its a lot of luck in the end.
Father Vaigret
I usually get good info every year for 3 or 4 horses in advance of the week which I will get tonight/tomorrow morning which I will post tomorrow morning.
However Ive did these as each way goliath
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
1.30 RECESSION PROOF 1.30 ARABELLA BOY 2.05 BALA FUNDLE
2.05 REALT DUBH 2.05 OSCARS WELL (SINGLE ALSO) 2.40 J"Y VOLE
4.40 ANOTHER JEWEL 2.40 BOSTONS ANGEL
Well on the basis that someone can win £1.4m on the Scoop Six and by his own admission isn't really a horse expert, i have studied the form and give you three horses you should probably advoid for two reasons...
1) I have selected them and 2) I am swayed by the fact they are all grey (probably wrong on that too!).
I'm only having 25p patent so it won't hurt too much!
Tuesday
1.30pm AL FEROF
2.05pm MEDERMIT
2.40pm GREAT ENDEAVOUR
Good luck everyone, especially those betting with 'big money!!
1.30 - al ferof
2.05 - captain chris
2.40 - blazing bailey
3.20 - khyber kim
4.00 - another jewel
4.40 - ocean transit (cant ignore our father)
5.15 - divers
Good Luck all hope you all get a winner or two
matt chapman from attheraces said he'd done previous panels with paul townend and he was waxing lyrical to him about 'so young' in the neptune, leaving matt to exclaim if it were a woman then paul townend would marry it!! andrew mcnamara also said that PT revealed to him secretly that hes been acting slightly coy on the mount in public when quizzed on its chances, this is solely because hes scared stiff of ruby ditching rock on ruby to ride instead (and after hurricane fly arrangements who can blame him??!!) so ive taken the hint on this one.
it was kind of what you'd expect tbh regarding main races, those higher in market being the tips.
the other thing i want to note tho is this; when outside the hotel having a quick smoke, got talkin randomly to some young whipper snapper, said his dad owns a leg in hurricane fly, so i quizzed them on their thoughts of his chances and tbh he hardly seemed confident/excited/hopeful (please delte as appropriate)so whether or not to take this wif a pinch of salt im not quite sure, after all shouting from the rooftops isnt always a good thing either......
spirit son 6/1
medermit 3/1
peddlers cross 5/1 (done 3 weeks ago on sky bet, wat else can i say, great value once again cough cough 13/2 other places @ the time!!)
garde campetre 9/2
ill be backing spirit son in win single tomo as well and depending on how he gets on might let the others run, have a nice feeling about this!!!
4pts e/w sunnyhillboy, huge fan of great endeavour, biggest winner last year for me in byrne plate, 18/1 but the magic sign returned it at 25's!!! sunnyhillboy has been left seeing its backside the last few timnes theyve crossed paths but with rise in trip and better off @ weights i think he'll reverse form, meetss alot of the trends (OR 144 or under, first 4 in betting amongst others) these 2 the standout for me.
if bensalem stays on his feet he'll b e huge danger, really nicely handicapped, however thats a big, massive even, IF, considering his fencing is shoddy at best.
our father is going to have ocean transit vying for favourtism with quevega in the mares as i also will be having a small flutter e/w on his reasoning, however it is a much tougher race she finds herself in here.
last race, tullymore dew @ 9's and e/w saver vino gregio (25's)
gud luck to all heres hoping we've plenty to shout about this time tomorrow evening!!
best wishes, hailhail88
2.05 Finians Rainbow
3.20 Hurricane Fly
4.00 Garde Champetre
5.15 Tullamore Dew in a lucky 15.
and also in a ew trixie
2.40 Blazing Bailey
3.20 Dunguib
4.00 A New Story
Good Luck all.
Probably getting boring on this subject and the Mares Hurdle is terribly difficult to win with Quevega in it and according to Willie Mullins even better than last year. Also there is doubts my mare Ocean Transit, goes as well left handed and also it is not a handicap so she only gets 5lb from one of the best mares seen at Cheltenham, however at 50-1, I got 66-1, has to be given a chance. She has won twice over 2m 6f so will stay up the hill and number of winners have come out of the ludlow race, with two winning so easily.
Also Richard Price knows how to get a mare to win at Cheltenham, I still remember this like it was yesterday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmHP30pkTqU
Lets hope so
Father Vaigret