erm im lucky he didnt have AK KQ thats redic he re-raises them pre! I reckon he stacks of Ax suited here so i think its ok, not fantastic obviously I also dont mind shoving blank turn but what happens if Ace comes etc i prefer shove to put someone to a decision Posted by YOUNG_GUN
You would think he would 3 bet pre but you just don't know he may mix it up this early Just saying the jam is only folding out worse hands, your only getting called by better hands or a flush draw. But is this not the way to go when there is FD on board ? Debatable, but I am sure you could find the fold this deep if a spade or ace hits Also is there a great need to go to war so early ? If you put him on FD then hey ho, all is good
But you gotta remember on the positive side your only 50/50 at best Everything else in his calling range is crushing you
Would you rarther go in further ahead this early ?
You need to consider that AK, KQ, 44 and 77 are also possible holdings here, in which case he has you crushed. You've stoved his actual hole cards, but that's a results orientated calculation, you didn't have that information when you got it in.
I've just stoved it against this range, all possible holdings IMO;
AKo, KQo, KJo, KTo, AJss to A2ss, QTss, suited connecting spades from QJss to 45ss. (I've taken these hands out of his range on the assumption he would 3-bet pre-flop; AKss, AQss, KQss, AA, KK)
Against this range your equity drops to 41.7%.
Against a tighter range (AJss to A2ss, KTss, KQo, KJo, 44 and 77) you have 33.0%.
I did consider that but i was confident he had flush draw, obviously he was slightly better of with a pair already and overcard
but also on the same note my hands not exactly been played face up and i think will fold out marginal hands possibly other kings?? i would make the same play if i had 2 pair/ set/ AK so he can only really call with the hand he has unless he has one of these imo. I think offshoot's play is pretty standard really but obviously there's 3 options for me fold if i think im behind, shove to take down majority of the time or get racing, or call and shove blank turn(best option in hindsight). That said vs offy who clearly will have an edge with me im happy to take a race vs flush draw, also if i get the double up then it allows me to be more aggro and will give me a better chance to finish in the top 5
how are you confident he has a flushdraw? Do you think he flats sets?
nfd is in ok shape any fd with 7s is in ok shape,oesd in ok shape, sets crush you. AK crushes you (doubt he flats pre)KQ crushes you( doubt he c/r with KQ, also he may 3bet pre but I wouldnt be so sure). He is never raise/folding any K there and I doubt he ever raises KT or worse. You never ever get him to fold any hand you want him to fold after this action, you have to be pretty sure he has an absolute pile of draws and maybe sometimes flats sets to make shoving good here imo
erm im lucky he didnt have AK KQ thats redic he re-raises them pre! I reckon he stacks of Ax suited here so i think its ok, not fantastic obviously I also dont mind shoving blank turn but what happens if Ace comes etc i prefer shove to put someone to a decision Posted by YOUNG_GUN
how are you confident he has a flushdraw? Do you think he flats sets? nfd is in ok shape any fd with 7s is in ok shape,oesd in ok shape, sets crush you. AK crushes you (doubt he flats pre)KQ crushes you( doubt he c/r with KQ, also he may 3bet pre but I wouldnt be so sure). He is never raise/folding any K there and I doubt he ever raises KT or worse. You never ever get him to fold any hand you want him to fold after this action, you have to be pretty sure he has an absolute pile of draws and maybe sometimes flats sets to make shoving good here imo Posted by grantorino
I kindly dis-agree, i dont think he never bluff re-raises in this spot? i think he can fold out similar hands maybe k10, KQ etc
I put him on nut flush draw, just instinct and the way the betting has gone really. no betting tells or anything like that
In Response to Re: Sky Roller satelite thoughts : I kindly dis-agree, i dont think he never bluff re-raises in this spot? i think he can fold out similar hands maybe k10, KQ etc I put him on nut flush draw, just instinct and the way the betting has gone really. no betting tells or anything like that Posted by YOUNG_GUN
offshoot can have pure bluffs sometimes, but I think its more likely to be a monster or a draw. I also dont know why you would shove against his pure bluffs
I think you can easily get into levelling yourself here. Unless you have good specific reads on offshoot I think its a pretty clear fold and move on
good reg players are well capable of bluffs and it's how they get paid- I really don't think they're liable to bluff at this stage of a satellite, I wouldn't go as far as to say never but it's very, very unlikely.
Late stages, sure- even early stages of a standard tourney, especially a deep one. But there's no way he's going to donk off his chips on a speculative bluff in a survival tournament. Pair+NFD is a bit of a monster, even if he's convinced you have a king.
I dunno I think you played it ok- but your hand is kinda vulnerable there. If you're certain he's on the flush draw, I flat and re-evaluate- give him a card, chances are good it won't be a spade. Then you can get his stack in. If it IS a spade, go with your read and fold- it's only cost you an extra 150.
You're in position so flatting is acceptable, it's down to him what he does with the next card. Turns out it's a blank, so he either fires again- in which case I jam on him, and he struggles to call with 1 card to come- or it's a spade, and he fires for real- I just let go at this point.
If he has the NFD on flop, with 2 cards to come and chips invested you're probably not getting him off. Turn raise carries a whole heap more weight, use your position.
Ty offshoot i was wondering whether you was going to come on here? if i flat and turn blanks as it did would you fold? as your not really getting the price
taking into consideration the %s you got you're money in first and were ahead. In my oppinion then you have made a good decision alternatively you could shove when you are behind.
Comments
position on Big blind flop K47 two spades 130 pot ck you lead 95/>70 is fine
ck raise 260 8.25BB to flat in position />open shove 68.5BB Effective stacks don't like
Would flat in position pot control re evaluate on turn looking to get to showdown cheaply
His call is standard and your jam is hoping he has a flush draw
Your jam is only getting called by a better hand or a flush draw, agree ?
I don't like the jam, maybe call and if no spade on turn then go for it
I reckon he stacks of Ax suited here so i think its ok, not fantastic obviously
I also dont mind shoving blank turn but what happens if Ace comes etc i prefer shove to put someone to a decision
Just saying the jam is only folding out worse hands, your only getting called by better hands or a flush draw. But is this not the way to go when there is FD on board ?
Debatable, but I am sure you could find the fold this deep if a spade or ace hits
Also is there a great need to go to war so early ?
If you put him on FD then hey ho, all is good
But you gotta remember on the positive side your only 50/50 at best
Everything else in his calling range is crushing you
Would you rarther go in further ahead this early ?
I've just stoved it against this range, all possible holdings IMO;
AKo, KQo, KJo, KTo, AJss to A2ss, QTss, suited connecting spades from QJss to 45ss. (I've taken these hands out of his range on the assumption he would 3-bet pre-flop; AKss, AQss, KQss, AA, KK)
Against this range your equity drops to 41.7%.
Against a tighter range (AJss to A2ss, KTss, KQo, KJo, 44 and 77) you have 33.0%.
but also on the same note my hands not exactly been played face up and i think will fold out marginal hands possibly other kings?? i would make the same play if i had 2 pair/ set/ AK so he can only really call with the hand he has unless he has one of these imo. I think offshoot's play is pretty standard really but obviously there's 3 options for me fold if i think im behind, shove to take down majority of the time or get racing, or call and shove blank turn(best option in hindsight). That said vs offy who clearly will have an edge with me im happy to take a race vs flush draw, also if i get the double up then it allows me to be more aggro and will give me a better chance to finish in the top 5
nfd is in ok shape any fd with 7s is in ok shape,oesd in ok shape, sets crush you. AK crushes you (doubt he flats pre)KQ crushes you( doubt he c/r with KQ, also he may 3bet pre but I wouldnt be so sure). He is never raise/folding any K there and I doubt he ever raises KT or worse. You never ever get him to fold any hand you want him to fold after this action, you have to be pretty sure he has an absolute pile of draws and maybe sometimes flats sets to make shoving good here imo
Yeh he never flats pre with AK,AQ
I put him on nut flush draw, just instinct and the way the betting has gone really. no betting tells or anything like that
I think you can easily get into levelling yourself here. Unless you have good specific reads on offshoot I think its a pretty clear fold and move on