I was 50/50 at the time and considered I was short with 8.5 bb v 10bb stacks and the blinds were coming round to me so thought hey ho lets flip or he could have a worse A. Just thought it was a better spot than having to pass this and shove one of the next two hands if un opened or just blind down and hope the other two make a mistake and bust but the table was tight and Shanx is never making a mistake so... gg
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I would think you need to look at the £EV of calling here v the £EV of folding, not the fact we need to win 55% of games Posted by grantorino
But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot.
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot. Posted by Poker_Fail
Which was my original point exactly. If you're calling an all-in for your stack, then you have to be winning it at least 55% of the time, and I don't think you are going to against this shove because I think his range involves alot of pairs where you're an underdog.
Is it possible for someone to use that software to type in the details and get the outcome before its there time to act bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it Posted by MP33
I haven't used to the software but I'd imagine you'd have to be VERY fast to manage it AND you certainly couldn't do it while multi-tabling AND the answers are all based the hand range you enter so if you get your opponent's range wrong then it means nothing anyway.
If you're any sort of regular sng player (especially) dyms, u will/should know it off by heart.
I'm obviously not a very good, or regular dym player because I snap this, and having 'stoved' it against what appears to be Shanxtas range, that would be a mistake.
But....when I initially said snap call, I assumed Shanxtas shoving range was alot wider than it actually appears to be, and if it was what I thought it was when I first read the hand, a call would be good!
Is it possible for someone to use that software to type in the details and get the outcome before its there time to act bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it Posted by MP33
Its impossible, you have to put it all in manually takes 2-5 minutes to review 1 hand. You can import hand histories from other sites after the games are over but on sky your hand histories ain't saved on the hard drive.
Its just a post game evaluation tool just like poker stove and the more you use it the more it becomes common knowledge then habit.
If you're any sort of regular sng player (especially) dyms, u will/should know it off by heart. I'm obviously not a very good, or regular dym player because I snap this, and having 'stoved' it against what appears to be Shanxtas range, that would be a mistake. But....when I initially said snap call, I assumed Shanxtas shoving range was alot wider than it actually appears to be, and if it was what I thought it was when I first read the hand, a call would be good! Hope that's clear! ^^^ Posted by DOHHHHHHH
It's far from the worst call ever made, and we all know you don't play DYMs
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot. Posted by Poker_Fail
I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call.
Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision)
Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind
Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified
btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though)
EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym Posted by grantorino
Yes you are right about that, what I meant was that calling AK in this spot would not only be much less profitable then folding (As you said he could easily win 65% in this spot), but would even give a lower win rate than what is required to be profitable at all (the 55% figure).
Say, for example he was 56% against SHANXTA's range, it would still be a profitable game if he called, but the play itself would very unprofitable with him losing about 9% more games in this situation (Compared with your 65% figure which seems about right).
Yeh my bad wording came into play, I'm just saying that this call is simply losing him money.
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym Posted by grantorino
No problem m8, didn't mean it to come across as havin a dig at you just put a standard scenario up. Gl at the tables.
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym Posted by grantorino
I know what you mean but because it's all very even, as someone said earlier, if you call, this is almost cash or not cash entirely on this hand, cos you're either gonna knock someone out on the bubble (or as good as) or be knocked out yourself (or as good as). So bearing that in mind, you need to win 55% of DYMs at this level to break even so if this exact situation comes up and you're against say 22 and you call, about 45% you win (cash), about 55% you lose (don't cash), and so you are losing long term. Now it's all really down to what people think Shanxta's range is but I'd be very doubtful that you're gonna win 55%+ of these races against him.
JC does talk about this in his guide but at the start of a DYM where for instance, first hand of the tourney, theres an open shove, everyone folds but you're last to act and have QQ, and you know, just hypothetically just say you have a perfect read on this person that he only does this with AK and nothing else. Then 45% of the time you lose and you're out, 55% of the time you win but you only double up, you havent cashed yet. Maybe 5-10% of the times you double up early you won't cash so thus you're cashing less than 55% of the time and it's an unnecessary and -ev move.
In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : So bearing that in mind, you need to win 55% of DYMs at this level to break even so if this exact situation comes up and you're against say 22 and you call, about 45% you win (cash), about 55% you lose (don't cash), and so you are losing long term. Now it's all really down to what people think Shanxta's range is but I'd be very doubtful that you're gonna win 55%+ of these races against him. JC does talk about this in his guide but at the start of a DYM where for instance, first hand of the tourney, theres an open shove, everyone folds but you're last to act and have QQ, and you know, just hypothetically just say you have a perfect read on this person that he only does this with AK and nothing else. Then 45% of the time you lose and you're out, 55% of the time you win but you only double up, you havent cashed yet. Maybe 5-10% of the times you double up early you won't cash so thus you're cashing less than 55% of the time and it's an unnecessary and -ev move. Posted by Lambert180
What you talk about in 2nd paragraph applies to the situation we are in here. If we have 55% on a win or bust decision, sure we will be breakeven or better if we take it. However we should take the decision that maximises our win rate. If, for example, calling means we cash 60% of time and folding means we cash 70% of time then we should fold. Similarly there may be situations where calling is better than folding even though we wont win 55%. I'm pretty sure my math in my post above isnt correct, but I'd be surprised if we dont need more than 55% equity to call there.
I'm not going to post anymore in this thread as I'm not well up on ICM and anything I said here may well be wrong (if so apologies). I would think a knowledge of ICM is vital for anyone playing sngs seriously. It is even more important for dyms as there is only one prize bump. Sats are obv similar to dyms and ICM will affect mtt decisions too
Comments
Thats some program and i guess its hard to gp against that
bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time
shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it
I haven't used to the software but I'd imagine you'd have to be VERY fast to manage it AND you certainly couldn't do it while multi-tabling AND the answers are all based the hand range you enter so if you get your opponent's range wrong then it means nothing anyway.
You can import hand histories from other sites after the games are over but on sky your
hand histories ain't saved on the hard drive.
Its just a post game evaluation tool just like poker stove and the more you use it the more it
becomes common knowledge then habit.
Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision)
Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind
Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified
btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though)
EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym
Say, for example he was 56% against SHANXTA's range, it would still be a profitable game if he called, but the play itself would very unprofitable with him losing about 9% more games in this situation (Compared with your 65% figure which seems about right).
Yeh my bad wording came into play, I'm just saying that this call is simply losing him money.
Gl at the tables.
JC does talk about this in his guide but at the start of a DYM where for instance, first hand of the tourney, theres an open shove, everyone folds but you're last to act and have QQ, and you know, just hypothetically just say you have a perfect read on this person that he only does this with AK and nothing else. Then 45% of the time you lose and you're out, 55% of the time you win but you only double up, you havent cashed yet. Maybe 5-10% of the times you double up early you won't cash so thus you're cashing less than 55% of the time and it's an unnecessary and -ev move.
I'm not going to post anymore in this thread as I'm not well up on ICM and anything I said here may well be wrong (if so apologies). I would think a knowledge of ICM is vital for anyone playing sngs seriously. It is even more important for dyms as there is only one prize bump. Sats are obv similar to dyms and ICM will affect mtt decisions too