In the morning I entered the 9-45am and 10-45am Bounty Hunters without success. After lunch I returned to try my luck in a couple of £5.75 games.
In the first £5.75 game I was handcuffed by a bingo maniac on a heater at my table, he was all-in preflop every at least every third or fourth hand right from the start. I watched in amazement as he luck-boxed his way to five head prizes with his monsters like T2o somehow getting there. Unfortunately I couldn’t pick up a strong enough hand to take him on. After patiently folding 90%+ of hands for 45 minutes I got my stack in good for (close to) a treble-up on a turn but failed to hold against a caller with an open-ended straight draw. Ironically the maniac was also in the pot, he folded to my turn shove and it was another player who took me out.
In the second of the £5.75 games my ‘hand of doom’ struck again and my stack was crippled early in level 1. Can you fold pocket KK on a KQT rainbow flop with 90BB effective stacks? I couldn’t. Unknowns are often seen to get it in very light in these games, top pair is enough for many regardless of kicker, two pairs and lower sets were also possible. I knew there were was a chance of a flopped straight, in which case I’d still have outs to a full house or quads. Anyway, rightly or wrongly, all the chips went in on the flop. My opponent held J9 of course, I didn’t improve. After such a tilting hand I was ready to quit for the day. As it was I managed 3 quick doubles and made almost made a miracle recovery. An hour and a half later I busted in 11th of 52 in a standard JJ<AK reshove flip. Had that flip had gone my way I’d have moved up to third in chips at the time with eight to be paid.
The unlikely comeback was heartening, though two things continue to frustrate me; I’m still running terribly with pocket KK. It always seems to lose for me, even when I flop top set, that cruellest of all poker hands has wrecked many a tournament lately. Also I’m still running badly in £5.75 Bounty Hunters. There’s no obvious reason, I’m assuming it’s just down to standard variance and that the deep runs will come sooner or later.
We have visitors arriving tomorrow for a two day stay and my poker volume will be reduced. It’s possible I may not play again until Saturday afternoon. May poker points 167
Our visitors were delayed en-route so I had time to squeeze in a few micro-stakes games after work. In the first Bounty Hunter it was a case of deja-vu; for the second time in 24 hours I flopped a set, just like yesterday I ran it into a flopped straight. In the second Bounty Hunter I got my stack aipf with AKs against A9o and lost on a 7TA86 run-out.
I tried a 30p DYM to have a crack at the new forum completion, I got knocked out in the 100/200 level by a when I open shoved AQ from the button and couldn’t hold against a SB caller with TJo. Just one game was enough to remind me how much I dislike DYMs these days and won’t be trying again.
That’s three losing days in a row. I’m not concerned, I’m satisfied it’s standard variance. I feel I’m playing well, as long as that continues the results will follow. May poker points 177
Not running too well at the moment, Bounty Hunter exit hand;
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 20.00 20.00 1385.00 tony011 Big blind 40.00 60.00 2235.00 Your hole cards K A Denbo1956 Call 40.00 100.00 1905.00 honeybunch Call 40.00 140.00 4870.00 ch34dc Fold GaryQQQ All-in 1385.00 1525.00 0.00 tony011 Fold Denbo1956 Fold honeybunch Call 1365.00 2890.00 3505.00 GaryQQQ Show K A honeybunch Show 9 A Flop 7 10 A Turn 8 River 6 honeybunch Win Straight to the 10 2890.00 6395.00
Decided to play a few micro-stakes games on my laptop while putting most of my focus on some jobs that needed doing around the house, ran badly again.
The £2.30 Bounty Hunters are barmy at the moment, full of crazy gamblers. I tried my luck in two. The first exit came when I open-raised 5x with JJ and got it in on a 7 high dry flop. My caller got there when another 7 fell on the turn to improve his 79o to trips. In the second game I survived the minefield as far as the bubble (four left, three paid). Then two consecutive hands did me in; first I lost a big pot with KK<AJ (I still can’t win any hand in any game with KK), then open jammed my remaining 26 BB with AQs from the SB. The BB called with ATo and binked a T on the turn. Open jamming AQs there would be terrible in most games, not in a £2.30 Bounty Hunter, AQ is well ahead of typical calling ranges. Getting your chips in good isn’t difficult, making a hold is the tricky bit.
I haven’t managed to play much in the last few days,over the weekend I have nothing planned so should be able to return to a higher volume. May poker points 185
Carried on where I left off yesterday and ran dreadfully in MTTS. I won’t bore you with hand histories. Suffice to say the deck was in a very cruel mood.
After five days of running badly this is turning into a bit of a downswing. While it’s frustrating I need to remember that poor runs like this are totally standard to MTT players. All I can do is keep my cool, continue to play to the best of my ability and wait for good fortune to turn my way again.
yep its the way it goes gary ive had the same even though im running really deep and doing well im getting knocked out on the bubble and so forth but eventualy one will get through and the downswing is over. All you can do is play your best and hope the dealer is kind to you. Hope you run better m8 as im sure you will.
While it’s frustrating I need to remember that poor runs like this are totally standard to MTT players. All I can do is keep my cool, continue to play to the best of my ability and wait for good fortune to turn my way again. Posted by GaryQQQ
Another day of poor results. I chose to avoid £5+fee games today due to a lack confidence after recent results. A run to the final table of an afternoon Bounty Hunter was heartening, though I was somewhat disappointed not to close it out after a lengthy spell as chip leader. The hand which crippled my stack was an unavoidable cooler with my flopped straight running into a flopped flush during 3-handed play. I held a redraw to a higher flush but it wasn’t to be. May poker points 237
There was a pleasing start to the day with a run to third place in the 10-45am Bounty Hunter. Much of the tournament was very awkward due to the presence of a bingo maniac on my table who took 9 bounties and raced into a monster chip lead. He was playing hyper aggressively leaving me no option other than to keep my game super-tight. Going into the final table I was 6th of 6. I managed to build my stack, then when the maniac’s luck eventually ran out I was the one who busted him out in 6th place. My exit hand was a standard cooler; I open jammed 12BB from the button with a small pocket pair, happy to take a flip if need be. Unfortunately both of the blinds also jammed, each holding a pocket pair higher than mine.
In the afternoon I tried a couple of £2.30 Bounty Hunters. In the first I busted after defending my big blind to a min raise with 75s and flopping top two pairs. The raiser held QQ, all the chips went in on the turn but I was unable to dodge one of his outs on the river. In the second I came to grief when I made a massive 3-bet over shove in level 3 with pocket AA. This isn't a play I would normally make, but I went with my read that the villain often calls light in these situations. My notes were correct and he made the call. Unfortunately I was unable to hold against his QQ for a 216BB pot that would have given me the chip lead at the time and set me up nicely for a deep run.
After the AA<QQ hand I was demoralised and quit the session. I’m still frustrated to find myself repeatedly busting from tournaments after getting my chips in good. However, I have to take this as a sign that despite the poor results I’m still playing well. I’d be far more concerned if I kept busting after getting my chips in behind. When holding AA I can only be delighted to get an opponent to put 108BB in the pot pre-flop no matter what his hole cards. Sure, it sucks when he gets there, but I still want that call all day long. Despite the continued bad runnage the good news is that I can actually record a small profit today, this being my first winning day for a whole week. Hopefully I’ve turned a corner!
Weirdest hand of the day, the player who has posted the big blind folds to a single limper, he doesn't even take a free look at the flop!
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 30.00 30.00 1925.00 h Big blind 60.00 90.00 3672.50 Your hole cards 2 9 lizardman6 Fold thedogeats Call 60.00 150.00 2591.25 slider78 Fold stuart771 Fold GaryQQQ Fold h Fold thedogeats Muck thedogeats Win 150.00 2741.25
Still not running well, my final hand of the day;
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 20.00 20.00 4260.00 tilerman Big blind 40.00 60.00 1700.00 Your hole cards A A 18wheeler Call 40.00 100.00 2122.50 G Raise 160.00 260.00 4170.00 dj_fixate Fold GaryQQQ All-in 4260.00 4520.00 0.00 tilerman Fold 18wheeler Fold G Call 4120.00 8640.00 50.00 GaryQQQ Show A A G Show Q Q Flop Q 5 2 Turn 6 River 9 G Win Three Queens 8640.00 8690.00
I’ve been steering clear of the £5.75 Bounty Hunters for a few days to minimise losses during the current downswing. After yesterday’s small profit I felt brave enough take a shot at one today. It nearly came good, only to fizzle out with a disappointing 4th place finish for not much money. I played for the win and went down fighting; on the bubble (6 left, 5 paid) while chip leader I check/shoved a flopped flush draw as a semi-bluff to put my c-betting opponent all-in. He had the courage to make a tough call with his top pair despite the presence of shorter stacks at the table and held. Had that one gone my way the end result may have been better. As it was it made a big dent to my stack from which I never quite recovered.
In an afternoon £2.30 Bounty Hunter I survived the bingo stage as runaway chip leader only to see it all slip away at the final table for third place. My fate was sealed when I didn’t believe one of several 3-bet shoves from an aggressive opponent when he held AA. Fair enough, well played that man, he set it up nicely and I fell into the trap.
HU matches were terrible; I lost 5/5, unable to win any all-in hand whether ahead, behind or flipping.
Looking at my results I now see 4 cashes from 8 MTTs over the last three days (excluding 2 freerolls played in hyper-maniac mode). Prior to that I had zero cashes from 23 MTTs over a six day period. None of the wins are big, but a little form is returning and confidence is growing. Things are looking up!
Just wondering why you limp behind with Tens? Posted by Dudeskin8
If it folds to me I open raise 100% of the time. I opt to limp behind here for two reasons;
1. BigBaz's open limp with two shove stacks present was very suspicious. Prior to this hand I hadn't seen him open limp at all, he'd been opening all pots with conventional 2.5x/3x raises. It looked to me, correctly as it turned out, like he might be trapping with a monster.
2. My awkward stack size. With 35BB I'm too deep to want to play for my whole stack preflop with tens. If I raise over a limper I need to make it 4 or 5 BB to go, should either deawatts or BigBaz re-raise after me to say 10/12BB, or shove (as Baz was likely planning) I'll be forced to fold (I'm too shallow to flat call a re-raise, I'd want effective stacks to be at least 50BB). If one of the two short stacks shoves over the limps and Baz folds then there's enough dead money in the pot to make it an easy call for me.
No joy for me today in the two morning £3.30 Bounty Hunters despite above holding average stacks in each at the hour break. The 9-45 ended with a standard overcards < pocket pair blind vs blind flip. In the 10-45 I self destructed by making a bad play; I snap 3-bet jammed AQ from the blinds over an UTG 3x opener and ran into AK. Reviewing the hand I can now see it was a bad shove considering bet sizing and stack sizes. 3-bet/folding or flatting both would have been better options and the mistake was a waste of my stack.
In the afternoon I tried my luck in another couple of Bounty Hunters. After an early double I couldn’t get anything else to go my way in a £5.75 game, I spent the rest of the tournament picking up mediocre hands or worse and failing to connect with flops. Getting short in the second hour I picked up KJs and raised from the SB in a BvB pot. I was never folding after flopping top pair, unfortunately I was unable to hold against the BBs open-ended straight draw which improved on the river.
A £2.30 Bounty Hunter went a little better with a run to final table, helped by spiking a king in a big AK />TT bubble flip on the way. My exit hand was harsh beat in a pot that would have got me heads-up with level stacks; my AQ failing to hold against AT aipf when the board ran xxxTT. A frustrating end, though at least I won back enough to minimise the day’s losses.
In future I won't be entering any more £2.40 satellites into daytime £11 Bounty Hunters. I've come to the realisation that due to their super-fast 3 minute structures these are more-or-less luck based shove-fests and any skill edges are negated. If you run on expectation and win a seat 1 time in every 5 you’re effectively doubling the rake and paying £12 to enter an £11 tournament(5 x £2.40 = £12.00). I don’t consider these beatable to the point where I could win a seat for significantly less than £11 over a big sample. I've decided its better value to wait until I can buy into the £11 games directly. My BRM rule demands a balance of £440+ to buy-in for £11, so it’s not too far out of sight.
May poker points 286
Sharkscope has missed some of my results today so I've copy/pasted the information from the 'My Account' page above;
Date & TimeProductDescriptionAmountHeld FundsPlatformDetail16 May '12 at 17:27PokerHypercharged£0.95£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 14:04PokerBounty Hunter£6.63£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 14:04Poker£250 Bounty Hunter£-5.75£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 12:31PokerHypercharged£0.95£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 10:40Poker£150 Bounty Hunter£-0.50£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 09:27Poker£150 Bounty Hunter£-3.30£0.00InternetHand History
Flop of the day.
My donk over-shove on the river here probably looks terrible at first sight. However I can assure that in these games you it gets read as a bluff and paid off more often than you might think, particularly if your image is right. Put it this way; if I over shove and get called one time in five it's more profitable than betting half pot and getting called three times in five.
Maths;
called overshove wins 3962 chips 20% of the time = value 792 chips + 20% of the head prize
called half pot bet wins 1219 chips 60% of the time = value 731 chips + 0% of the head prize
When I got in from work a £2.30 Bounty Hunter was about to start up, so I bought in. It was filled with wild bingo players knocking each other at a rapid pace. Within an hour I’d locked up a min-cash simply by folding 90%+ of my hands. Post bubble I was soon out after getting it in good twice and failing to hold each time. Almost simultaneously I was donked out of a freeroll after an hour of play with my AJs squeeze/shove failing to hold against a limp/caller with QTo for a pot that would have given me a top 5 stack.
Next up was a £250 gtd £5.75 Bounty Hunter. After 2 hours of play I was chip leader with 10 remaining (5 to be paid), though agonisingly without a head prize. Play was very cagey at this stage with the average stack down to only 14BB. First hand at the final table I was holding A9 on the BB when a 6BB short stack on the button open jammed. I considered A9 to have enough equity against his shoving range to make it an easy call. Annoyingly he held AT and doubled putting me down to average. A runner-runner flush bad beat between two other players burst the bubble.
Soon I was looking for a shove spot as the blinds increased and my stack had dwindled to 10BB. I found it with ATs on the button, amazingly the big blind called from a 15BB stack with 62o. To my relief his terrible play wasn’t rewarded and I doubled up. A few orbits later getting short again I found another shove spot with 9d8d, this time I got very lucky to double off a caller with pocket aces. I’ve run the hand through Pokerstove, done the maths against estimated calling ranges and I’m satisfied my shove was +ev (see below). My demise came when 3-handed. With average stacks getting very short again I ran A7 into AQ, this time I was unable to get there. While I made a profit on my buy-in and move back over the £400 mark I’m disappointed to see a decent bink elude me in a £5.75 game yet again. It has to come sooner or later, I’ll be back to try again tomorrow.
Am I a lucky donk or was this a reasonable shove spot? My analysis is below the hand history.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceKinKade Small blind 600.00 600.00 35640.00 stavrum Big blind 1200.00 1800.00 10982.00 Your hole cards 8 9 GaryQQQ All-in 12354.00 14154.00 0.00 tarel1973 Fold KinKade Call 11754.00 25908.00 23886.00 stavrum Fold KinKade Show A A GaryQQQ Show 8 9 Flop J 5 Q Turn J River 10 GaryQQQ Win Straight to the Queen 25908.00 25908.00 Bear in mind I'm playing for the win. I hate going below 10BB because I lose fold equity. 8d9d was an easy shove for me in this spot, and here's why;
I'll get a lot of folds and have pretty good equity against calling ranges. Less than 9% of the time will one of my three opponents hold a hand I really fear; ie pairs 99+. If I fold and the blinds go through me I'll be down to 8.5BB and becoming increasingly desperate. Admittedly I got lucky this time, however suck-out equity is all part of the decision to shove. Put it this way; I'd much rather shove 10BB with 89s than fold down to 5BB and shove AK, still in urgent need of another double even if it wins.
Let's say all 3 opponents have a calling range of pairs 77+, AT-AK and KQs. That's 8.7% of hands, 3 x 8.7% = 26.1%. So 26.1% of the time I'm getting called, 73.9% of the time I'll get folds and pick up the blinds. Pokerstove tells me 89s has 34.3% equity against that calling range.
So
73.9% of the time I get folds and win 1800 chips 8.95% of the time (34.3% x 26.1%) I'm called and win for a 13554 chip profit 17.15% of the time (65.7% x 26.1%) I'm called and lose my 12354 chip shove
73.9% x +1800 = +1330 8.95% x +13554 = +1213 17.15% x -12354 = -2118
total +425
If you can follow my maths you'll see my shove has an expected value of +425 chips. Certainly +425 is marginal, but it's more desirable than folding and having to immediately post the blinds. To give myself a chance of winning this tournament I'm fully prepared to get my chips in this marginal spot. The value of this shove goes up if you widen the calling ranges, say by including all pairs and all suited aces.
I myself, after playing quite a few BH's of late, wouldn't be a masssive fan of shoving purely due to the VERY wide calling range of many players because of the bounty aspect.
Also at this blind level 10bbs is worth a lot more than at the first few levels where you're basically stuffed. Going down to 8.5bbs isn't great but that's still a very healthy shoving stack that carries fear especially in a better position BvB with just one oppo or even on the button next hand.
You even calculate yourself that this is only quite small positive EV and in an MTT where you can't reload I don't think you have to take EVERY plus EV spot as it'll increase variance a lot more whcih is high enough as it is in these games.
Finally stav in BB has less than 10bbs so might be willing to gamble a lot more which isn't great for you.
I myself, after playing quite a few BH's of late, wouldn't be a masssive fan of shoving purely due to the VERY wide calling range of many players because of the bounty aspect. Also at this blind level 10bbs is worth a lot more than at the first few levels where you're basically stuffed. Going down to 8.5bbs isn't great but that's still a very healthy shoving stack that carries fear especially in a better position BvB with just one oppo or even on the button next hand. You even calculate yourself that this is only quite small positive EV and in an MTT where you can't reload I don't think you have to take EVERY plus EV spot as it'll increase variance a lot more whcih is high enough as it is in these games. Finally stav in BB has less than 10bbs so might be willing to gamble a lot more which isn't great for you. Posted by Dudeskin8
They were playing it cagey and calling pretty tight at this table. Next hand I'm on the BB, not the button. With 8.5BB my FE is significantly less than when I have 10BB and I'll probably go with any 2 cards next orbit. A 10BB shove with 98s is preferable to an 8.5BB shove with atc. I'd suggest the fact that I have Sav covered increases the value of my shove slightly; if he calls and I win I take a head prize, something I didn't factor into the maths.
Comments
Closing balance £404.94
In the morning I entered the 9-45am and 10-45am Bounty Hunters without success. After lunch I returned to try my luck in a couple of £5.75 games.
In the first £5.75 game I was handcuffed by a bingo maniac on a heater at my table, he was all-in preflop every at least every third or fourth hand right from the start. I watched in amazement as he luck-boxed his way to five head prizes with his monsters like T2o somehow getting there. Unfortunately I couldn’t pick up a strong enough hand to take him on. After patiently folding 90%+ of hands for 45 minutes I got my stack in good for (close to) a treble-up on a turn but failed to hold against a caller with an open-ended straight draw. Ironically the maniac was also in the pot, he folded to my turn shove and it was another player who took me out.
In the second of the £5.75 games my ‘hand of doom’ struck again and my stack was crippled early in level 1. Can you fold pocket KK on a KQT rainbow flop with 90BB effective stacks? I couldn’t. Unknowns are often seen to get it in very light in these games, top pair is enough for many regardless of kicker, two pairs and lower sets were also possible. I knew there were was a chance of a flopped straight, in which case I’d still have outs to a full house or quads. Anyway, rightly or wrongly, all the chips went in on the flop. My opponent held J9 of course, I didn’t improve. After such a tilting hand I was ready to quit for the day. As it was I managed 3 quick doubles and made almost made a miracle recovery. An hour and a half later I busted in 11th of 52 in a standard JJ<AK reshove flip. Had that flip had gone my way I’d have moved up to third in chips at the time with eight to be paid.
The unlikely comeback was heartening, though two things continue to frustrate me; I’m still running terribly with pocket KK. It always seems to lose for me, even when I flop top set, that cruellest of all poker hands has wrecked many a tournament lately. Also I’m still running badly in £5.75 Bounty Hunters. There’s no obvious reason, I’m assuming it’s just down to standard variance and that the deep runs will come sooner or later.
We have visitors arriving tomorrow for a two day stay and my poker volume will be reduced. It’s possible I may not play again until Saturday afternoon.
May poker points 167
6307769 9-May-12 17:09 NL Holdem £241/57-£2.306307883 9-May-12 16:48 NL Holdem £511/53-£3.876307487 9-May-12 16:37 NL Holdem £526/54-£5.756307165 9-May-12 13:41 NL Holdem £331/59-£2.176309747 9-May-12 13:06 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956306780 9-May-12 12:22 NL Holdem £313/58-£3.30
Closing balance £400.89
Our visitors were delayed en-route so I had time to squeeze in a few micro-stakes games after work. In the first Bounty Hunter it was a case of deja-vu; for the second time in 24 hours I flopped a set, just like yesterday I ran it into a flopped straight. In the second Bounty Hunter I got my stack aipf with AKs against A9o and lost on a 7TA86 run-out.
I tried a 30p DYM to have a crack at the new forum completion, I got knocked out in the 100/200 level by a when I open shoved AQ from the button and couldn’t hold against a SB caller with TJo. Just one game was enough to remind me how much I dislike DYMs these days and won’t be trying again.
That’s three losing days in a row. I’m not concerned, I’m satisfied it’s standard variance. I feel I’m playing well, as long as that continues the results will follow.
May poker points 177
6312469 10-May-12 16:15 NL Holdem £241/55-£2.306311866 10-May-12 14:51 NL Holdem £234/45-£2.306315030 10-May-12 13:45 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956315011 10-May-12 13:35 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956314963 10-May-12 13:28 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056314827 10-May-12 13:14 NL Holdem £0.255/6-£0.30
Not running too well at the moment, Bounty Hunter exit hand;
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 20.00 20.00 1385.00 tony011 Big blind 40.00 60.00 2235.00 Your hole cards K A Denbo1956 Call 40.00 100.00 1905.00 honeybunch Call 40.00 140.00 4870.00 ch34dc Fold GaryQQQ All-in 1385.00 1525.00 0.00 tony011 Fold Denbo1956 Fold honeybunch Call 1365.00 2890.00 3505.00 GaryQQQ Show K A honeybunch Show 9 A Flop 7 10 A Turn 8 River 6 honeybunch Win Straight to the 10 2890.00 6395.00
Closing balance £394.19
Decided to play a few micro-stakes games on my laptop while putting most of my focus on some jobs that needed doing around the house, ran badly again.
The £2.30 Bounty Hunters are barmy at the moment, full of crazy gamblers. I tried my luck in two. The first exit came when I open-raised 5x with JJ and got it in on a 7 high dry flop. My caller got there when another 7 fell on the turn to improve his 79o to trips. In the second game I survived the minefield as far as the bubble (four left, three paid). Then two consecutive hands did me in; first I lost a big pot with KK<AJ (I still can’t win any hand in any game with KK), then open jammed my remaining 26 BB with AQs from the SB. The BB called with ATo and binked a T on the turn. Open jamming AQs there would be terrible in most games, not in a £2.30 Bounty Hunter, AQ is well ahead of typical calling ranges. Getting your chips in good isn’t difficult, making a hold is the tricky bit.
I haven’t managed to play much in the last few days, over the weekend I have nothing planned so should be able to return to a higher volume.
May poker points 185
6317810 11-May-12 17:18 NL Holdem £235/45-£2.306318157 11-May-12 16:49 NL Holdem £24/27-£2.306320950 11-May-12 16:43 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056320542 11-May-12 15:05 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.05
Closing balance £380.34
Carried on where I left off yesterday and ran dreadfully in MTTS. I won’t bore you with hand histories. Suffice to say the deck was in a very cruel mood.
After five days of running badly this is turning into a bit of a downswing. While it’s frustrating I need to remember that poor runs like this are totally standard to MTT players. All I can do is keep my cool, continue to play to the best of my ability and wait for good fortune to turn my way again.
May poker points 221
6323791 13-May-12 01:17 NL Holdem £3115/517-£0.216324532 13-May-12 00:49 NL Holdem £2120/230-£2.306324492 12-May-12 23:45 NL Holdem £2127/306-£1.556327202 12-May-12 19:42 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956324820 12-May-12 19:18 NL Holdem (Sat) £2.2022/38-£2.406323504 12-May-12 18:10 NL Holdem £512/83-£1.996326528 12-May-12 17:38 NL Holdem £31/2£2.856326533 12-May-12 17:37 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956326523 12-May-12 17:28 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056322908 12-May-12 17:07 NL Holdem £264/65-£2.306323030 12-May-12 16:25 NL Holdem £535/58-£5.756324753 12-May-12 16:08 NL Holdem (Sat) £0.969/32-£1.05
In Response to Re: My quest to turn £51 into £1,051 on Sky Poker____ **** latest balance £380.34 ****:
kudos for staying cool for this long!Closing balance £379.40
Another day of poor results. I chose to avoid £5+fee games today due to a lack confidence after recent results. A run to the final table of an afternoon Bounty Hunter was heartening, though I was somewhat disappointed not to close it out after a lengthy spell as chip leader. The hand which crippled my stack was an unavoidable cooler with my flopped straight running into a flopped flush during 3-handed play. I held a redraw to a higher flush but it wasn’t to be.
May poker points 237
6328375 13-May-12 17:42 NL Holdem £23/40£9.716325550 13-May-12 16:04 PL Omaha £0115/441£06327571 13-May-12 15:20 NL Holdem £211/28-£1.556327570 13-May-12 13:04 NL Holdem £335/46-£3.306327261 13-May-12 12:31 NL Holdem £340/65-£3.306329662 13-May-12 11:54 NL Holdem (Sat) £2.208/8-£2.406329918 13-May-12 11:20 NL Holdem £11/2£0.956329819 13-May-12 11:16 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.05
Closing balance £389.96
There was a pleasing start to the day with a run to third place in the 10-45am Bounty Hunter. Much of the tournament was very awkward due to the presence of a bingo maniac on my table who took 9 bounties and raced into a monster chip lead. He was playing hyper aggressively leaving me no option other than to keep my game super-tight. Going into the final table I was 6th of 6. I managed to build my stack, then when the maniac’s luck eventually ran out I was the one who busted him out in 6th place. My exit hand was a standard cooler; I open jammed 12BB from the button with a small pocket pair, happy to take a flip if need be. Unfortunately both of the blinds also jammed, each holding a pocket pair higher than mine.
In the afternoon I tried a couple of £2.30 Bounty Hunters. In the first I busted after defending my big blind to a min raise with 75s and flopping top two pairs. The raiser held QQ, all the chips went in on the turn but I was unable to dodge one of his outs on the river. In the second I came to grief when I made a massive 3-bet over shove in level 3 with pocket AA. This isn't a play I would normally make, but I went with my read that the villain often calls light in these situations. My notes were correct and he made the call. Unfortunately I was unable to hold against his QQ for a 216BB pot that would have given me the chip lead at the time and set me up nicely for a deep run.
After the AA<QQ hand I was demoralised and quit the session. I’m still frustrated to find myself repeatedly busting from tournaments after getting my chips in good. However, I have to take this as a sign that despite the poor results I’m still playing well. I’d be far more concerned if I kept busting after getting my chips in behind. When holding AA I can only be delighted to get an opponent to put 108BB in the pot pre-flop no matter what his hole cards. Sure, it sucks when he gets there, but I still want that call all day long. Despite the continued bad runnage the good news is that I can actually record a small profit today, this being my first winning day for a whole week. Hopefully I’ve turned a corner!
May poker points 246
6333253 14-May-12 17:47 NL Holdem £228/46-£1.556332965 14-May-12 16:46 NL Holdem £233/64-£2.306332405 14-May-12 13:20 NL Holdem £33/44£14.41
Weirdest hand of the day, the player who has posted the big blind folds to a single limper, he doesn't even take a free look at the flop!
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 30.00 30.00 1925.00 h Big blind 60.00 90.00 3672.50 Your hole cards 2 9 lizardman6 Fold thedogeats Call 60.00 150.00 2591.25 slider78 Fold stuart771 Fold GaryQQQ Fold h Fold thedogeats Muck thedogeats Win 150.00 2741.25
Still not running well, my final hand of the day;
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 20.00 20.00 4260.00 tilerman Big blind 40.00 60.00 1700.00 Your hole cards A A 18wheeler Call 40.00 100.00 2122.50 G Raise 160.00 260.00 4170.00 dj_fixate Fold GaryQQQ All-in 4260.00 4520.00 0.00 tilerman Fold 18wheeler Fold G Call 4120.00 8640.00 50.00 GaryQQQ Show A A G Show Q Q Flop Q 5 2 Turn 6 River 9 G Win Three Queens 8640.00 8690.00
Closing balance £396.66
I’ve been steering clear of the £5.75 Bounty Hunters for a few days to minimise losses during the current downswing. After yesterday’s small profit I felt brave enough take a shot at one today. It nearly came good, only to fizzle out with a disappointing 4th place finish for not much money. I played for the win and went down fighting; on the bubble (6 left, 5 paid) while chip leader I check/shoved a flopped flush draw as a semi-bluff to put my c-betting opponent all-in. He had the courage to make a tough call with his top pair despite the presence of shorter stacks at the table and held. Had that one gone my way the end result may have been better. As it was it made a big dent to my stack from which I never quite recovered.
In an afternoon £2.30 Bounty Hunter I survived the bingo stage as runaway chip leader only to see it all slip away at the final table for third place. My fate was sealed when I didn’t believe one of several 3-bet shoves from an aggressive opponent when he held AA. Fair enough, well played that man, he set it up nicely and I fell into the trap.
HU matches were terrible; I lost 5/5, unable to win any all-in hand whether ahead, behind or flipping.
Looking at my results I now see 4 cashes from 8 MTTs over the last three days (excluding 2 freerolls played in hyper-maniac mode). Prior to that I had zero cashes from 23 MTTs over a six day period. None of the wins are big, but a little form is returning and confidence is growing. Things are looking up!
May poker points 267
GameIDDate (UTC+0100)TypeEntryFeePositionProfit6337861 15-May-12 17:06 NL Holdem £23/27£8.836339816 15-May-12 15:10 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056337971 15-May-12 15:02 NL Holdem £54/33£8.826339793 15-May-12 15:02 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056334777 15-May-12 14:55 NL Holdem £0135/248£06337020 15-May-12 12:49 NL Holdem £324/56-£3.306339256 15-May-12 12:39 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056338820 15-May-12 12:30 NL Holdem (Sat) £2.207/13-£2.406339199 15-May-12 12:28 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.056339102 15-May-12 12:04 NL Holdem £12/2-£1.05
Bounty Hunter fun;
nearly up to the £400 mark.
:-)
dev
1. BigBaz's open limp with two shove stacks present was very suspicious. Prior to this hand I hadn't seen him open limp at all, he'd been opening all pots with conventional 2.5x/3x raises. It looked to me, correctly as it turned out, like he might be trapping with a monster.
2. My awkward stack size. With 35BB I'm too deep to want to play for my whole stack preflop with tens. If I raise over a limper I need to make it 4 or 5 BB to go, should either deawatts or BigBaz re-raise after me to say 10/12BB, or shove (as Baz was likely planning) I'll be forced to fold (I'm too shallow to flat call a re-raise, I'd want effective stacks to be at least 50BB). If one of the two short stacks shoves over the limps and Baz folds then there's enough dead money in the pot to make it an easy call for me.
Closing balance £395.64
No joy for me today in the two morning £3.30 Bounty Hunters despite above holding average stacks in each at the hour break. The 9-45 ended with a standard overcards < pocket pair blind vs blind flip. In the 10-45 I self destructed by making a bad play; I snap 3-bet jammed AQ from the blinds over an UTG 3x opener and ran into AK. Reviewing the hand I can now see it was a bad shove considering bet sizing and stack sizes. 3-bet/folding or flatting both would have been better options and the mistake was a waste of my stack.
In the afternoon I tried my luck in another couple of Bounty Hunters. After an early double I couldn’t get anything else to go my way in a £5.75 game, I spent the rest of the tournament picking up mediocre hands or worse and failing to connect with flops. Getting short in the second hour I picked up KJs and raised from the SB in a BvB pot. I was never folding after flopping top pair, unfortunately I was unable to hold against the BBs open-ended straight draw which improved on the river.
A £2.30 Bounty Hunter went a little better with a run to final table, helped by spiking a king in a big AK />TT bubble flip on the way. My exit hand was harsh beat in a pot that would have got me heads-up with level stacks; my AQ failing to hold against AT aipf when the board ran xxxTT. A frustrating end, though at least I won back enough to minimise the day’s losses.
In future I won't be entering any more £2.40 satellites into daytime £11 Bounty Hunters. I've come to the realisation that due to their super-fast 3 minute structures these are more-or-less luck based shove-fests and any skill edges are negated. If you run on expectation and win a seat 1 time in every 5 you’re effectively doubling the rake and paying £12 to enter an £11 tournament(5 x £2.40 = £12.00). I don’t consider these beatable to the point where I could win a seat for significantly less than £11 over a big sample. I've decided its better value to wait until I can buy into the £11 games directly. My BRM rule demands a balance of £440+ to buy-in for £11, so it’s not too far out of sight.
May poker points 286
Sharkscope has missed some of my results today so I've copy/pasted the information from the 'My Account' page above;
Date & TimeProductDescriptionAmountHeld FundsPlatformDetail16 May '12 at 17:27PokerHypercharged£0.95£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 14:04PokerBounty Hunter£6.63£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 14:04Poker£250 Bounty Hunter£-5.75£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 12:31PokerHypercharged£0.95£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 10:40Poker£150 Bounty Hunter£-0.50£0.00AHand History 16 May '12 at 09:27Poker£150 Bounty Hunter£-3.30£0.00InternetHand History
Flop of the day.
My donk over-shove on the river here probably looks terrible at first sight. However I can assure that in these games you it gets read as a bluff and paid off more often than you might think, particularly if your image is right. Put it this way; if I over shove and get called one time in five it's more profitable than betting half pot and getting called three times in five.
Maths;
called overshove wins 3962 chips 20% of the time = value 792 chips + 20% of the head prize
called half pot bet wins 1219 chips 60% of the time = value 731 chips + 0% of the head prize
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceshunto69 Small blind 75.00 75.00 5723.12 szobky Big blind 150.00 225.00 1422.50 Your hole cards 8 8 GaryQQQ Raise 300.00 525.00 5915.00 Julieluv Fold cool_weed Call 300.00 825.00 4693.75 shunto69 Fold szobky Call 150.00 975.00 1272.50 Flop 8 7 8 szobky Check GaryQQQ Check cool_weed Check Turn 4 szobky Check GaryQQQ Check cool_weed Bet 731.25 1706.25 3962.50 szobky Fold GaryQQQ Call 731.25 2437.50 5183.75 River 4 GaryQQQ All-in 5183.75 7621.25 0.00 cool_weed Fold GaryQQQ Show 8 8 GaryQQQ Win 2437.50 2437.50 GaryQQQ Return 5183.75 0.00 7621.25
Closing balance £410.54
When I got in from work a £2.30 Bounty Hunter was about to start up, so I bought in. It was filled with wild bingo players knocking each other at a rapid pace. Within an hour I’d locked up a min-cash simply by folding 90%+ of my hands. Post bubble I was soon out after getting it in good twice and failing to hold each time. Almost simultaneously I was donked out of a freeroll after an hour of play with my AJs squeeze/shove failing to hold against a limp/caller with QTo for a pot that would have given me a top 5 stack.
Next up was a £250 gtd £5.75 Bounty Hunter. After 2 hours of play I was chip leader with 10 remaining (5 to be paid), though agonisingly without a head prize. Play was very cagey at this stage with the average stack down to only 14BB. First hand at the final table I was holding A9 on the BB when a 6BB short stack on the button open jammed. I considered A9 to have enough equity against his shoving range to make it an easy call. Annoyingly he held AT and doubled putting me down to average. A runner-runner flush bad beat between two other players burst the bubble.
Soon I was looking for a shove spot as the blinds increased and my stack had dwindled to 10BB. I found it with ATs on the button, amazingly the big blind called from a 15BB stack with 62o. To my relief his terrible play wasn’t rewarded and I doubled up. A few orbits later getting short again I found another shove spot with 9d8d, this time I got very lucky to double off a caller with pocket aces. I’ve run the hand through Pokerstove, done the maths against estimated calling ranges and I’m satisfied my shove was +ev (see below). My demise came when 3-handed. With average stacks getting very short again I ran A7 into AQ, this time I was unable to get there. While I made a profit on my buy-in and move back over the £400 mark I’m disappointed to see a decent bink elude me in a £5.75 game yet again. It has to come sooner or later, I’ll be back to try again tomorrow.
May poker points 297
GameIDDate (UTC+0100)TypeEntryFeePositionProfit6346358 17-May-12 16:17 NL Holdem £53/46£14.506343988 17-May-12 14:43 NL Holdem £097/230£06345879 17-May-12 13:32 NL Holdem £25/30£0.40
Am I a lucky donk or was this a reasonable shove spot? My analysis is below the hand history.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceKinKade Small blind 600.00 600.00 35640.00 stavrum Big blind 1200.00 1800.00 10982.00 Your hole cards 8 9 GaryQQQ All-in 12354.00 14154.00 0.00 tarel1973 Fold KinKade Call 11754.00 25908.00 23886.00 stavrum Fold KinKade Show A A GaryQQQ Show 8 9 Flop J 5 Q Turn J River 10 GaryQQQ Win Straight to the Queen 25908.00 25908.00
Bear in mind I'm playing for the win. I hate going below 10BB because I lose fold equity.
8d9d was an easy shove for me in this spot, and here's why;
I'll get a lot of folds and have pretty good equity against calling ranges. Less than 9% of the time will one of my three opponents hold a hand I really fear; ie pairs 99+. If I fold and the blinds go through me I'll be down to 8.5BB and becoming increasingly desperate. Admittedly I got lucky this time, however suck-out equity is all part of the decision to shove. Put it this way; I'd much rather shove 10BB with 89s than fold down to 5BB and shove AK, still in urgent need of another double even if it wins.
Let's say all 3 opponents have a calling range of pairs 77+, AT-AK and KQs. That's 8.7% of hands, 3 x 8.7% = 26.1%. So 26.1% of the time I'm getting called, 73.9% of the time I'll get folds and pick up the blinds. Pokerstove tells me 89s has 34.3% equity against that calling range.
So
73.9% of the time I get folds and win 1800 chips
8.95% of the time (34.3% x 26.1%) I'm called and win for a 13554 chip profit
17.15% of the time (65.7% x 26.1%) I'm called and lose my 12354 chip shove
73.9% x +1800 = +1330
8.95% x +13554 = +1213
17.15% x -12354 = -2118
total +425
If you can follow my maths you'll see my shove has an expected value of +425 chips. Certainly +425 is marginal, but it's more desirable than folding and having to immediately post the blinds. To give myself a chance of winning this tournament I'm fully prepared to get my chips in this marginal spot. The value of this shove goes up if you widen the calling ranges, say by including all pairs and all suited aces.