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MTT - 12bbs, 72, SB, Shove or Fold?
Dudeskin8
Member Posts: 6,228
This was a bounty hunter in the money last 26, I was about 22nd.
The 500/1000 level has also just started.
With the format is this an auto shove or too risky ?
| Dudeskin8 | Small blind | 500.00 | 500.00 | 11981.25 | |
| Doubleblow | Big blind | 1000.00 | 1500.00 | 27592.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| DnTryMe | Fold | ||||
| STANNYB | Fold | ||||
| madmax40 | Fold | ||||
| johnhammer | Fold | ||||
| Dudeskin8 |
Comments
Depends simply on what we think of BB
Most people here are saying fold, and yet I posted my exit hand in Thews @ Ten the other night and everyone said it was just standard. Both hands were SB v BB, both situations we had 12BB, both at similar stages of the tourney.
Obviously the main difference was I had KJoff and Dude has 72s but (the point I made in my thread), if I ever get my KJ shove called, I'm always gonna behind, and am likely to be dominated alot of the time. The only upside I see to my hand is that I have 2 overs to smaller pairs. But Dude is much more likely to be live (obviously in trouble against a PP over 7s).
So my question was, I'm not shoving for value as I never figure to be ahead and clearly Dude wouldn't be shoving for value, so why is mine standard and his a fold?
Why wouldnt we want to get through one opponent to pick up the 1500 in there when we only have 11bbs to begin with (11400).
We are making a calculated risk. Sigh... Beaheh sets out the technical terminology so I wont. We considor the range of hands that call us & what we perceive BB thinks of our shove in relation to those hands. But he has to have a hand to begin with.
Need to get used to being aggro in these spots ATC outcome regardless. We can factor in a lot of issues,
Am not saying auto ship ATC (although personally my range is going to be super wide, unless bb is mahoosive station.), - as said initially - depends on what we think of BB. But ultimately we are going to be needing to get it in real soon, plenty of arguments to say here is plenty fine
72 is in trouble against most pairs, especially those bigger than 7s, but is 40/60 against the rest of his range (short of possibly A7 and A2).
Really my only point is that when I get called with KJ, I'm virtually always in trouble, but it's still +EV because of all the folds I'll get, so surely 72s is also +EV for this reason, so I'm questioning the differing responses.
(I wasn't shoving KJ for value)
I think you can make a decent argument for either a shove or a fold to be honest. You can wait a few hands if you like but in my opinion we have an opportunity here. I wouldn't want to miss it.
EDIT: Read dependent, of course. Too often I've done this into a station who snap calls me with J4. lol
So we assume oppo fold 40% of the time (28.8% fold equity) ?
if so then we have 56.8% total equity, so the shove is fine I think
agree/disagree - discuss
My figures may be off, not done it for a while
disclaimer: I may be totally off the mark here )
dis TT+,AQs+,AQo+
whats our equity versus this range
and surely this decreases the percentage we are called, so we get folds 80% of the time ?
We only want folds more often