2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas)

joesman1

I've just watched a re-run and gotta say On His Own was tanking along when it fell at Beechers 2nd time round. It wouldn't be the 1st to fall there when going well only to prevail the following year (West Tip 1985/6). Mullins sure to keep him to hurdles til next years weights are announced to keep the 148 rating intact. I'll keep this thread going and every time I top up my ante post bet ill post it. 1st bet placed now £25ew 33/1.

joesman1

In Response to 2013 National Winner running total invested £100

I've just watched a re-run and gotta say On His Own was tanking along when it fell at Beechers 2nd time round. It wouldn't be the 1st to fall there when going well only to prevail the following year (West Tip 1985/6). Mullins sure to keep him to hurdles til next years weights are announced to keep the 148 rating intact. I'll keep this thread going and every time I top up my ante post bet ill post it. 1st bet placed now £25ew 33/1.
Posted by joesman1

Had another £25ew @ 33/1 today. Either gonna be in a good position next April or have egg on my face.

joesman1

In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner running total invested now £75 ew

In Response to 2013 National Winner running total invested £ 100 Had another £25ew @ 33/1 today. Either gonna be in a good position next April or have egg on my face.
Posted by joesman1

Boooo. All the 33/1 now gone, had to change from Mr Power to Mr Boyle too cos they've gone straight to 20's. £25 ew 25/1 @ Boylesports. Total now £75 ew

joesman1

My god can't believe it's been 93 days since I last updated this blog. Scary how time flies.. Anyway since I had a good touch last weekend I've topped up my 'investment' on On His Own for next years National. Still 25/1. Total invested now stands at £200 ew, some @ 33/1. My aim is to get a £1000 ew on it before it drops below 20/1. Only topping my bet up when I have a win. Daft logic I know, but then feels like its a free bet. Hope I don't have egg on my face come next April. 

joesman1

Another 70 days have flown by since I last updated this blog. Seeing The Rocks Cheltenham treble reminded me of it. Well I'm up to £500 ew now, still getting 25's. Still only topping up when I snare a win. Branden Grace enabled me to top up last week. Hoping to get 1k ew on before it dips below 20's. Hey ho if I do my money in. 

FlashFlush

Such a sicko if this wins!!

joesman1

In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £500 ew:

Such a sicko if this wins!!
Posted by FlashFlush

Oh come on Charles. Let my 'dream' come true!! 

FlashFlush

I hope it does for you m8! I'm sure I'll put my 50p e/w bet on it when the time comes so I can cheer it on properly then :-)

joesman1

In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £500 ew:

I hope it does for you m8! I'm sure I'll put my 50p e/w bet on it when the time comes so I can cheer it on properly then :-)
Posted by FlashFlush

I know you're a lot more sensible/careful than myself. . . But throw caution to the wind and stick a £1 ew on it every week between now and April. Then u will have £25 ish ew on it and bag £600 + if it wins. U won't miss the £2 each week.

joesman1

Another golf win enables me to top up again. Now on £700 ew, still @ 25's. Put on double what I usually top up by today because Willie Mullins has his Stable Tour highlighted in tomorrows Racing Post. I'm hoping to read he is 'laying it out' for The National. 

agboy

i backed it this year and was going as well as anything when it fell 

1267

You are a sicko !  Hope it wins,  would be awesome.   Plus i'm going to back it near the time, unless odds decrease massively.

BELL_POKER

after watching the race again you might be on to something. it appears the loose horse got in his eyeline and became a distraction - makes sense. id always thought Prince de Beauchene would be mullins main one in this (as like last year before taken out of decs) and still think would also be choice of Ruby but as you say, a main trend i look out for is a horse who ran year before and fell, was brought down, as history shows they tend to run a big race again, handicapper will be more leniant than a horse who 'got round' to claim 3rd or 4th.

my favourite race in the NH calander, i know most hardened NH followers think the opposite way but i like the fact it is a race where i can watch with the family and kids who otherwise 365 days a year are pretty disinterested the grand sport (then 4 year old nephew had Neptune Collognes last year and cashed in his 50p e/w @ 33's on a new batmobile)

but youre a brave man than me backing the national so far away, id at least be wanting to see the weights published as theres always going to be something better handicapped surely? the nationals a lottery as it is, sometimes its a lottery just getting there so i hope the horse gets there in one piece for your sake as its the least your faith in him deserves.

the moneys not the big thing, you can afford the 50 or whatever weekly from other winnings etc so great to top up.

its not even if he lines up and doesnt win thats the disappointing factor, they turn up, were unlucky, didnt deserve it (delete as appropriate)

most definately the really heartbreaking thing is when you pick up a copy of the post, or flick online to sporting life in mid march and read headline 'YOUR HORSES NAME.... OUT OF RACE'

had my fingers royally burnt on last installment for RSA antepost, still convinced hed have won, First Leutenants second only cements that theory. my biggest antepost ever (and will not happen again on that scale) was fellow gigginstown runner Sea of Thunder, he turned up in much the same vein as weapons amnesty, never really went well in ireland but thrived over the water on better ground, well he ran no bloo dy race at all and just had to hold my hands up. was much more sick on last installments withdrawel as i didnt get a run/sweat

so fingers crossed for your bet, youve even convinced me for a tenner e/w at this early stage, ill wait til the weights are published before picking an alternative/going in again, and even then more than likely be the first week in april

joesman1

Howdy Mr Bell. Firstly got my wish today, Mullins says ". . . . We're keen to head back to Aintree again so you probably won't be seeing much of him until the second half of the season."

Secondly, I agree re Prince De Beauchene complicates matters, as Mullins has also declared its his intention to target him at the race too, and I'd much rather have Walsh on board. At least Wylie doesn't mind running two in the same race. 

Thirdly, slightly disagree about the weight issue. It ran off 148 this year so can be almost guaranteed to run off the same mark next year as it won't see a fence til the weights are published. Obviously it's exact weight will be determined by the rating of the top weight.

Fourthly, yeah it's the risk you take backing them early. But nowadays less horses miss the big events due to the better facilities these top trainers have. 

Anyway, I'm gonna leave this thread alone now until Tom Segal tips it up in his Pricewise Section in the Post in February when the weights are published (lol). Tbh, value may have gone by then so he wouldn't tip it, even if he fancies it. 

BELL_POKER

aye i was hoping youd post what mullins said today as on your above post after id written mine i saw you saying about the stable tour and ive not been able to get a hold of the post today, all systems go then it appears! good luck

joesman1

Getting excited now!!! Racing Post gonna carry a story in the morning saying the money is coming for On His Own, and is now vying for favouritism. My target has been reached, all at 20's and above. At least this time I'm on on ew, so not another Teaforthree situation, unless of course it finishes 5th. Oh and Teaforthree winning it would be another bad beat. 

splashies

Wooooow

Very best of luck mate!

vaigret

I hope you are right mate but for once in my life LOL I agree with Bell.

I am sure Mullins first choice will be Prince De Beucherne and Ruby will ride that.

Having said that there is usually a story behind the national winner and perhaps it will be

" Jockey wins first grand National as Ruby left On His Own" 

Good luck and you have certainly put your money where your mouth is.

Father V

joesman1

In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):

I hope you are right mate but for once in my life LOL I agree with Bell. I am sure Mullins first choice will be Prince De Beucherne and Ruby will ride that. Having said that there is usually a story behind the national winner and perhaps it will be " Jockey wins first grand National as Ruby left On His Own"  Good luck and you have certainly put your money where your mouth is. Father V
Posted by vaigret

You should be working for The Sun, making up headlines like that Father V. You might be right, will depend which horse gives him the best feel in their prep run. I guess I'd end up with Paul Townsend, though part of me would like Paul Carberry, so he could pay me back for his inspirational ride in last Sat's National. 

And thanks Splashes, would give me more ammo' to throw away on golf bets lol. 

joesman1

As the weights for The National are published on Tuesday (and I'm bored watching Snedeker on the iPad and Hawaii 'book him Danno' Five O on the TV), I thought I'd dig the National Blog out.

Really chuffed to see Nicholls commit Tidal Bay to the race today. Though I'm sure his stable jockey and its owner would have told him he HAS run it lol. With him in the race, it guarantees mine (same ownership) runs off (I'm guessing) 10st 5 to 7 ish. And anything dangerous lurking low down in the weights will have to run above its allocated weight. 

I'm sure once the weights are announced, all the big guns who have kept their powder dry will soon hit the track. Haycocks National Trial, The Eider Chase, and from my point of view in all probability, The Bobby Jo Chase week after next, will offer plenty of clues. 

Lastly cannot believe how quick time flies. 20th April last year when I 1st started this only seems like yesterday. Scary!!!

vaigret

all the best mate and just hope it gets there safely for you