NL10 - Implied hand

rancid

Figure oppo is limp/raising big hand so should get paid
Failing that oppo could be playing back at me, so I have position if I need it
Does it look ok through the streets - result doesn't matter, suffice to say I am going for the whole stack

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
elpapagal	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£5.92
HulkBanana	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£6.44
	Your hole cards	5 6
EssexD	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£15.31
rancid	Raise		£0.40	£0.65	£27.48
Thierrizle	Fold
SLEDGIE	Fold
elpapagal	Fold
HulkBanana	Fold
EssexD	Raise		£0.90	£1.55	£14.41
rancid	Call		£0.60	£2.15	£26.88
Flop
		Q 7 9
EssexD	Bet		£1.00	£3.15	£13.41
rancid	Call		£1.00	£4.15	£25.88
Turn
		K
EssexD	Bet		£2.00	£6.15	£11.41
rancid	Call		£2.00	£8.15	£23.88
River
		3
EssexD	Bet		£4.00	£12.15	£7.41
rancid

DrRunGood

you say result doesnt matter but that is only thing you can take from this hand. If you do this often im afraid you going to not get that result. ok i can see the call pre flop but str8 away you have to ask yourself what is he reraising with and what do you hope to see?

really flop is fold instant you call and again call turn so what was your end game what were you going to do if the river came blank?

my advice dont do this again unless you have a trigger your going to pull or know you opponent very well

KAM99

Ok, preflop is ok. Don't have to much of an issue with that if you are putting villian on a big PP now and looking to flop big with a straight or flush, and as its deep stack you afford occasionally to be speculative. However, after that you didn't seem to have any plan other than to be a calling station. If y ou called the flop based on your gutshot draw and backdoor flush flush then its a horrible call. And I can only assume that is why you made the call as you made no attempt on flop or turn to make some sort of move if that was the plan with the flop call.

Normally results don't matter, but this result does in that it may lead you to think this is a good play. Its not unless you are floating with a specfic plan to do something like a bluff etc, and that might well be difficult if he has AA or similar at this level as he will not likely give credit to a reraise anywhere and just be thinking he has top pair if he does have AA, and for certain not if its KK.

Did you have a plan for the hand preflop when you called his reraise? I like to have one, and while it may change sometimes I do like to have some idea what I'm going to do with the hand post flop.

grantorino

Fold flop and you know this

rancid

Cheers for responses, ofc I have a itchy trigger finger if I need to use it on turn but I question my calls even though I think I have implied odds - surely the worse scenerio is oppo has nothing to pay me off when I hit - but this kinda works in my favour if oppo has not a lot but more than me, I can knock oppo off the pot -

Wondered what the thinking is here with regards to calling down IP with IO - Turn for example it makes no sense for me to raise now - weakness + blank on river then i may have to pull a bullet out but.... mmmmmmmm

really not sure, hence the post

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

Fold flop and you know this
Posted by grantorino

No I don't, hence the post ) my thinking here may be so bad, but do I have implied odds to carry on ?

grantorino

4 outs to nuts, 8 to give you a bigger draw you still miss 75%, I doubt it 

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

4 outs to nuts, 8 to give you a bigger draw you still miss 75%, I doubt it 
Posted by grantorino

Really GT, wow am I way off the mark here - I have a big chance to get oppo stack if I hit the GS, I am getting paid 100% of the time even if oppo has one pair, my draws are invisable - half pot bets are kinda where I think with the effective I am fine to call flop and turn given when I hit I am stacking oppo

edit: looked at this again and I have calculated how much I would need to win to make this profitbale/break even
Am I way off the mark or does this look ok ?
 flop = £7.80
 turn = £1

YOUNG_GUN

Pre flop isnt he a bit shallow to 3 bet then call? dont mind it but i think if villain was deeper then it would be ok

give up flop imo 

no need to get this fancy nl10 

KAM99

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : Really GT, wow am I way off the mark here - I have a big chance to get oppo stack if I hit the GS, I am getting paid 100% of the time even if oppo has one pair, my draws are invisable - half pot bets are kinda where I think with the effective I am fine to call flop and turn given when I hit I am stacking oppo edit: looked at this again and I have calculated how much I would need to win to make this profitbale/break even Am I way off the mark or does this look ok ?  flop = £7.80  turn = £1
Posted by rancid

On the flop if it all goes in you have about 20% equity vs say AQ with 2 cards to come, but you can't really do the maths like that if making a call as you are only playing for one card, at half that equity. So you are about 8% at that point to hit your gutshot. SO you are only going to hit it one in ten times, and then you have to factor in how often you will get his whole stack after making the call.

Fact is you just plain should never chase a gutshot only, if that is all you are doing. ****, I'll lead out with a gutshot sometimes, and even reraise with one if I think they might have missed, but both those plays are more hoping to take the pot down and have outs if I fail to, and hopefully slow them right down if they call.

So all in all you are only making either your straight of flush here 1 in 5 times, and in most cases it would likely cost you more than this one hand in a bottle did, so all in all its BAD.. don't do it.

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : On the flop if it all goes in you have about 20% equity vs say AQ with 2 cards to come, but you can't really do the maths like that if making a call as you are only playing for one card, at half that equity. So you are about 8% at that point to hit your gutshot. SO you are only going to hit it one in ten times, and then you have to factor in how often you will get his whole stack after making the call. Fact is you just plain should never chase a gutshot only, if that is all you are doing. ****, I'll lead out with a gutshot sometimes, and even reraise with one if I think they might have missed, but both those plays are more hoping to take the pot down and have outs if I fail to, and hopefully slow them right down if they call. So all in all you are only making either your straight of flush here 1 in 5 times, and in most cases it would likely cost you more than this one hand in a bottle did, so all in all its BAD.. don't do it.
Posted by KAM99

Come on you guys, stop messing )
flop = 3/1 - turn = 2/1 direct odds
chance of hitting draw - flop = 11/1 - turn = 4/1

we can work out how much we need to win to make the call profitbale

flop = £7.80
turn =£4
If I think I can win this amount if I hit my draw on each street to break even, then this is ok ya ?
If it's very plausible i can get more than this, say the whole £14ish - then calling can be profitbale !
is this flying over peoples heads or am I just crazy bad !

KAM99

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : Come on you guys, stop messing ) flop = 3/1 - turn = 2/1 direct odds chance of hitting draw - flop = 11/1 - turn = 4/1 we can work out how much we need to win to make the call profitbale flop = £7.80 turn =£4 If I think I can win this amount if I hit my draw on each street to break even, then this is ok ya ? If it's very plausible i can get more than this, say the whole £14ish - then calling can be profitbale ! is this flying over peoples heads or am I just crazy bad !
Posted by rancid

I assume you do understand how odds for draws work with pot odds? In this particular hand you made a call of £1 with odds to hit your gutshot of about 11:1 with pot odds of 3:1, this is bad. You can't assume to improve to flush draw on turn, so the call on the flop is the only thing you can be certain of at this point, and you are calling with horrible odds. Yes in odds calculations you do take implied odds into account, but the chances you stack someone the one time you make this out of the 11 you don't is slim at best. You'd want the pot odds and odds of hitting your draw to be a lot closer really to be taking implied odds into it. In case you don't know you want the odds to hit your draw to be below your pot odds to make a call correct on the odds alone, and then you can look at implied odds from there, but you are very very long on this right on this occasion. Not to mention normally the person may only have a full stack of 100bb, and so may only have say £10, which means even if you stack them you come up short.

The turn call of course is fine once you get there as you are getting the right price to make the call, but the call on the flop mathematically is poor at best. You'll never find any pro or book suggesting you chase that gutshot, and chasing runner runner is worse.

rancid

naaaaaaaaa sorry in my world I have to beleive in implied odds to get paid, or bluff and win

Just because you have not got the correct direct odds, it doesn't mean you should fold if you beleive you can hit hidden draws and get PAID IN FULL where the implied odds when calculated make sense
If I hit my draw on turn I am certain i can get at least £7.80 from oppo, so in my book - it's ok baby

If I am wrong then everyone can call me a station and abuse me on here, but no one is because I am RIGHT !

Woldulp

I don’t mind the p/f raise – calling the reraise fine too (don’t want to roll over & die too easy). When he bets the flop I think I give up then. But you carry on – when the 4^th diamond comes then I guess you’re pretty much going with it to the end.

grantorino

If you have the implied odds you can't bluff.  Bluffing in this hand would be very tough without good reads IMO

Some  calcs look a little off to me (2/1 direct on turn, really?)but I haven't done them and essence of what you are saying is correct. Turn is a clear call, flop I think it's slightly optimistic to assume you win an average of the amount you need every time you hit, but it's prob closer than I first thought. Fact you are ip deep is important

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

If you have the implied odds you can't bluff.  Bluffing in this hand would be very tough without good reads IMO Some  calcs look a little off to me (2/1 direct on turn, really?)but I haven't done them and essence of what you are saying is correct. Turn is a clear call, flop I think it's slightly optimistic to assume you win an average of the amount you need every time you hit, but it's prob closer than I first thought. Fact you are ip deep is important
Posted by grantorino

ok GT 3/1 - better for me anyway ) makes it £2 return required
Only bluffing blank turn :S

I just don't think I am totally wrong on this one, but I am obviously keen to be proven wrong !

In game I was like mmmmmm think this is ok, after I am like - really was it so bad !

grantorino

Some of your odds look wrong too, prob the real ones more in your favour. Haven't time to do them now but is it possible you are mixing up fractions with odds, ie 25% equity=1/4= require 3:1 odds

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

Some of your odds look wrong too, prob the real ones more in your favour. Haven't time to do them now but is it possible you are mixing up fractions with odds, ie 25% equity=1/4= require 3:1 odds
Posted by grantorino

yeah i am only using in game rough odds :S for one street be it flop or turn
If you get time later have a work through the calcualtions and give me some feedback, would be appriecieted - thanks

KAM99

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : ok GT 3/1 - better for me anyway ) makes it £2 return required Only bluffing blank turn :S I just don't think I am totally wrong on this one, but I am obviously keen to be proven wrong ! In game I was like mmmmmm think this is ok, after I am like - really was it so bad !
Posted by rancid

Yes, you are totally and utterly wrong because you are thinking of it the wrong way. You are merely thinking about this ONE hand, and thats not how it works. You have to consider it on the odds. This means that on the flop when you make that £1 call you are working with 11:1 odds. This means the twelve times you make this call in twelve DIFFERENT hands when you have a gutshot. So you make the call in this hand it costs you a pound, but if you make this SAME call in twelve hands in total it will cost you £12 in total. So in a 5/10 game where max buyin is normally 100bb of £10 you will be certain to lose at least £2 for sure, and more if you don't stack the person (which you won't always) on the one time your gutshot draw hits.

You can't look at this hand the way you are that you only have to make back the money or more you spend on this one hand. but on many hands where you make the exactly the same choice. Over the long run you will lose money because the odds will run against you over time.

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : Yes, you are totally and utterly wrong because you are thinking of it the wrong way. You are merely thinking about this ONE hand, and thats not how it works. You have to consider it on the odds. This means that on the flop when you make that £1 call you are working with 11:1 odds. This means the twelve times you make this call in twelve DIFFERENT hands when you have a gutshot. So you make the call in this hand it costs you a pound, but if you make this SAME call in twelve hands in total it will cost you £12 in total. So in a 5/10 game where max buyin is normally 100bb of £10 you will be certain to lose at least £2 for sure, and more if you don't stack the person (which you won't always) on the one time your gutshot draw hits. You can't look at this hand the way you are that you only have to make back the money or more you spend on this one hand. but on many hands where you make the exactly the same choice. Over the long run you will lose money because the odds will run against you over time.
Posted by KAM99

In theory your correct, it's a losing play to call down without the correct direct odds
But I am looking at the situation, effective stack and a very strong possiblity that oppos going to ship everything to me

I would not advocate calling a gutshot with the price given because like you say if you keep on doing this then it's just giving away money )

I could be very wrong, but I don't think I am -_-

KAM99

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand:

In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : In theory your correct, it's a losing play to call down without the correct direct odds But I am looking at the situation, effective stack and a very strong possiblity that oppos going to ship everything to me I would not advocate calling a gutshot with the price given because like you say if you keep on doing this then it's just giving away money ) I could be very wrong, but I don't think I am -_-
Posted by rancid

Well its not a theory, its mathematical fact. And if you say you know calling with a gutshot at the price is just giving away money why are you doing it? Yes, in a double stack table you have a little more room to make bad odds calls, but again it assumes that each time you do you'll stack someone, and in a double stack cash game thats not likely to happen consistantly. **** I don't know how this hand played out at the end, and maybe you shoved and he made a bad call with a mediocre hand etc I don't know, but in most cases you won't get their whole stack. Really not sure how you can make a claim there is "strong possibility" he ships to you. **** for all you know in this hand he shoves all in on the turn and leaves you no odds to call your flush draw either. You can't be sure at all what happens on turn when you make your flop call.

So the princible is this, if you carry on making calls with 11:1 odds and pot odds of 3:1 you will lose money hand over fist in the long run, and this is not a theory. By all means do as you wish as its your money to play with, but it would be quicker if you just took the money out of your wallet and took a lighter to it.