imo playing this type of hand in this situation is not a way to win consistently at NL10.
I'ld like to be closing action with pot multiway and ideally have a draw to the nuts.
I used to call raises/reraises fairly indiscriminately with suited connectors and it took me a while to conclude that this was a major leak in my game.
The satisfaction of stacking someone occasionally is not outweighed by all those times you flop well enough to lose £2/3 and not hit your draw.
In Response to Re: NL10 - Implied hand : Well its not a theory, its mathematical fact. And if you say you know calling with a gutshot at the price is just giving away money why are you doing it? Yes, in a double stack table you have a little more room to make bad odds calls, but again it assumes that each time you do you'll stack someone, and in a double stack cash game thats not likely to happen consistantly. **** I don't know how this hand played out at the end, and maybe you shoved and he made a bad call with a mediocre hand etc I don't know, but in most cases you won't get their whole stack. Really not sure how you can make a claim there is "strong possibility" he ships to you. **** for all you know in this hand he shoves all in on the turn and leaves you no odds to call your flush draw either. You can't be sure at all what happens on turn when you make your flop call. So the princible is this, if you carry on making calls with 11:1 odds and pot odds of 3:1 you will lose money hand over fist in the long run, and this is not a theory. By all means do as you wish as its your money to play with, but it would be quicker if you just took the money out of your wallet and took a lighter to it.
you dont seem to grasp implied odds
e.g our oppenent bets 50p into a pot of 50p, we have a million pounds behind. we have an expert super read that he has top set and will never fold on any river card
we have a gutshot. calling is the best play despite direct odds telling us that it is-ev Posted by KAM99
Well the idea of the clinic is to improve peoples games I would say, and you do see a lot of new players chasing gutshot draws, so educating them why its not good for me is why the clinic is here. Its not just about explaining it to you. As i said you're welcome to chase anything you like, its your money, but doesn't mean the facts shouldn't be put down as well, because other new players may read the thread and see you saying you think you're right and so continue to do it themselves thinking its correct maths to do so.
As for effective stack sizes. Not overly relevant. Yes, to a degree it is, but its more about what can you win? The question becomes can you win at least £12 on the time you hit your gutshot on the turn? if the answer is 100% yes you will always get £12 then its a fine call to make. Problem is will you? The answer is generally no, as while sometimes they may stack off or pay at least that, on many occasions they just won't because their hand is not strong enough when you put more heat on them.
To put that into form on this hand. Lets say you call that £1 and on the tunr you hit your straight. Villian bets £2 and you know that to get your money you will need to raise here or the river. So you have to decide if he will bet the river if you call here. So you raise, villian dwells and folds. So you fail to get money you needed to make calling this flop bet over the long run. And this is what is CERTAIN to happen. Yes, sometimes you'll get it all, but over thousands of hands, you won't get it all every time.
Anyway, like said do as you wish, much like anything how you play a game is down to you. I'm just explaining why its not the best option as a long term profitable poker play.
EDIT: yes lolraise I do fully understand implied odds, but over thousands of hands the chance they have a set here everytime we hit and won't fold is tiny, and the amount of times we get paid off enough is not often enough as i said. I don't mind a call here with some other plan, but solely on a gutshot isn't likely to work as long term winning play even in deepstack, and definely not if playing 100bb stacks.
We need to consider our situation over the long term, but for this exact situation, not where we are shallower or against different ranges
It is debatable whether the implied odds are good enough, I agree
Are the implied odds good enough.? A lot to consider. In our favour guys range looks strong, our hand should be hidden if we hit, he seems to be a fish, hes deep Against, the odds we need are a lot less than direct odds
As for how much we need to win if we hit on turn.
We have 4/47 cards to hit, so about 8.5%
Let amount extra we need to win =x
Call and miss:- 1*.915=-.915
So we need to make 91.5 on average when we hit
Call and hit: (x+3.15)*.085=.915
X+3.15~10.76
X=7.61
That's quite a big amount, but with specific situation here I would expect to get close to that figure when you hit
We only lose our pound 11 times of the twelve. We need to consider our situation over the long term, but for this exact situation, not where we are shallower or against different ranges It is debatable whether the implied odds are good enough, I agree Are the implied odds good enough.? A lot to consider. In our favour guys range looks strong, our hand should be hidden if we hit, he seems to be a fish, hes deep Against, the odds we need are a lot less than direct odds As for how much we need to win if we hit on turn. We have 4/47 cards to hit, so about 8.5% Let amount extra we need to win =x Call and miss:- 1*.915=-.915 So we need to make 91.5 on average when we hit Call and hit: (x+3.15)*.085=.915 X+3.15~10.76 X=7.61 That's quite a big amount, but with specific situation here I would expect to get close to that figure when you hit Posted by grantorino
cheers GT I made it £7.80 using another method
Subtract your pot odds from the odds of hitting your draw to work out your required implied odds. Then multiply the result by amount you need to call
Comments
I thought I would come here to feel better but sadly no one can fix me-_-
I thought we come here to discuss poker hands and explore other avenues
I do appreiciate you comments but it's a bit tedious telling me that I shouldn't be doing this everytime I have a GS )
I do know that -_-
if the effective stack was £100 do I call on the flop )
As for effective stack sizes. Not overly relevant. Yes, to a degree it is, but its more about what can you win? The question becomes can you win at least £12 on the time you hit your gutshot on the turn? if the answer is 100% yes you will always get £12 then its a fine call to make. Problem is will you? The answer is generally no, as while sometimes they may stack off or pay at least that, on many occasions they just won't because their hand is not strong enough when you put more heat on them.
To put that into form on this hand. Lets say you call that £1 and on the tunr you hit your straight. Villian bets £2 and you know that to get your money you will need to raise here or the river. So you have to decide if he will bet the river if you call here. So you raise, villian dwells and folds. So you fail to get money you needed to make calling this flop bet over the long run. And this is what is CERTAIN to happen. Yes, sometimes you'll get it all, but over thousands of hands, you won't get it all every time.
Anyway, like said do as you wish, much like anything how you play a game is down to you. I'm just explaining why its not the best option as a long term profitable poker play.
EDIT: yes lolraise I do fully understand implied odds, but over thousands of hands the chance they have a set here everytime we hit and won't fold is tiny, and the amount of times we get paid off enough is not often enough as i said. I don't mind a call here with some other plan, but solely on a gutshot isn't likely to work as long term winning play even in deepstack, and definely not if playing 100bb stacks.
I made it £7.80 using another method
Subtract your pot odds from the odds of hitting your draw to work out your required implied odds.
Then multiply the result by amount you need to call