Pot odd & EV

robz7

Even after spending hours of today researching into these more im still not confident.  Can anyone help me undertsand it more or at least direct me to somwhere which will help.  How often do you players use these and how improtant do you find them? thanks for any advice everyone

AMYBR

Every hand I ever play :P

learn the basics and is second nature given time.

Lambert180

Pot odds are generally used for to calculate if calling is correct. So for instance, if you have a flush draw on the flop, you know that the odds of you hitting your flush on the turn are about 1 in 5 (about 20%), so if the pot is 1000 and you have to call 600 to see the next card and you think a flush is your only out, then it's a bad call, because 4 times out of 5, you will throw away that 600 (so 3000 in total) and only 1 time you will win the pot which will be 1600 assuming no more chips go in.

This is a very simple example and doesn't take into account implied odds, which is the idea that you don't quite have the right pot odds to call, but you think that if you do hit, you stand to win a very big pot because you think they will continue to pile chips in (and you're deep enough).

EV is short for Expected Value and is essentially about making decisions which are profitable long-term. Often there are lots of +EV moves but you ideally want the most +EV. To give a very simple (and silly) example. If you pick up AA and just open shove 100BB, this is +EV because you will either win the blinds, or very very rarely get called and mostly win. However it's clearly not the most +EV way to play AA and will mean you lost alot of value.

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Pot odds are generally used for to calculate if calling is correct. So for instance, if you have a flush draw on the flop, you know that the odds of you hitting your flush on the turn are about 1 in 5 (about 20%), so if the pot is 1000 and you have to call 600 to see the next card and you think a flush is your only out, then it's a bad call, because 4 times out of 5, you will throw away that 600 (so 3000 in total) and only 1 time you will win the pot which will be 1600 assuming no more chips go in. This is a very simple example and doesn't take into account implied odds, which is the idea that you don't quite have the right pot odds to call, but you think that if you do hit, you stand to win a very big pot because you think they will continue to pile chips in (and you're deep enough). EV is short for Expected Value and is essentially about making decisions which are profitable long-term. Often there are lots of +EV moves but you ideally want the most +EV. To give a very simple (and silly) example. If you pick up AA and just open shove 100BB, this is +EV because you will either win the blinds, or very very rarely get called and mostly win. However it's clearly not the most +EV way to play AA and will mean you lost alot of value.
Posted by Lambert180

Hi Lambert agree with most of what you say just the odds of hitting the flush post flop.  If you are holding 2 suited cards and there are two of the same suit on the flop then the odds of you hitting are 39.6%  approx 2 in 5 on the turn.  These odds obviously half on the River 

Just thought i'd point that out. 

Woogie8688

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Hi Lambert agree with most of what you say just the odds of hitting the flush post flop.  If you are holding 2 suited cards and there are two of the same suit on the flop then the odds of you hitting are 39.6%  approx 2 in 5 on the turn.  These odds obviously half on the River  Just thought i'd point that out. 
Posted by JockBMW

Hi Jock,

This will probably make me look stupid but I always thought it was calculated as if 4 of a suit out then that means that 9 of that suit remain (outs) so multiply that by 2 for each street remaining & you have approx 36% chance of hitting the flush.

Mike

VespaPX

Another silly question probably, but do you factor in the possibility 1 or 2 cards of that suit may have been folded by other players?

Woogie8688

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Another silly question probably, but do you factor in the possibility 1 or 2 cards of that suit may have been folded by other players?
Posted by VespaPX

Hi Mick, 

I for one dont as its not ch 865 & can't see the other players cards, and have to assume that for the calculation that all other 9 outs are live.

Mike

VespaPX

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Hi Mick,  I for one dont as its not ch 865 & can't see the other players cards, and have to assume that for the calculation that all other 9 outs are live. Mike
Posted by Woogie8688

Very true Mike but the odds must factor that in as its very likely that in reality you will only have 7 or 8 outs ??
Not an expert by any means but its something i've thought about without researching it.
I'm sure somebody more knowledgeable will come up with the answer.
Mick

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Hi Jock, This will probably make me look stupid but I always thought it was calculated as if 4 of a suit out then that means that 9 of that suit remain (outs) so multiply that by 2 for each street remaining & you have approx 36% chance of hitting the flush. Mike
Posted by Woogie8688

Most people multiply it by 4 for the turn and 2 for the river,  it should actually by 4.4 for the turn 2.2 for the river.  That's were the differences in our numbers come from.  Basically the same though

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Another silly question probably, but do you factor in the possibility 1 or 2 cards of that suit may have been folded by other players?
Posted by VespaPX

Not a silly question, but as we are calculating probability  then we have to assume that all the unknown cards are still available.  So in the case of a flush draw we calculate the odds based on the 9 remaining suited cards being available 

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Very true Mike but the odds must factor that in as its very likely that in reality you will only have 7 or 8 outs ?? Not an expert by any means but its something i've thought about without researching it. I'm sure somebody more knowledgeable will come up with the answer. Mick
Posted by VespaPX

Probabailty is calculated using known values.  Whilst in the hand the only known value you have on a flush draw is that there are 9 suited cards remaining in the deck, so you use that figure to calculate the odds of hitting your flush 

The only time you would not use this would be if a card had been inadvertedly shown and it was the suit your were chasing, then you could reduce the number of outs to 8 instead of 9 

VespaPX

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Probabailty is calculated using known values.  Whilst in the hand the only known value you have on a flush draw is that there are 9 suited cards remaining in the deck, so you use that figure to calculate the odds of hitting your flush  The only time you would not use this would be if a card had been inadvertedly shown and it was the suit your were chasing, then you could reduce the number of outs to 8 instead of 9 
Posted by JockBMW

Cheers Jock :-)

EvilPingu

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Another silly question probably, but do you factor in the possibility 1 or 2 cards of that suit may have been folded by other players?
Posted by VespaPX

Nope, you only take into consideration cards which you can see in your own hand or on the board. 

Therefore, in Hold'em, if we have 2 diamonds and flop a flush draw, we have 9 outs twice - Very easy.

In Omaha, there is the possibility of flopping up a flush draw when you have 3 or maybe even 4 cards of the same suit in your hand (but ofc, we have to use exactly 2 of them). In that scenario, we can take away the extra diamonds that we know are in our hand because we know they're not in the deck.

robz7

Thanks everyone some helpful stuff, but how am i meant to work all that out within the time i have to play LOL does it become clockwork after a while??

AMYBR

Like breathing bud. 

A book that helped me widen some of my lines on this and give real time hand examples was the gus Hansens Aussie Millions book.  Cant think what its called exactly just now but am sure someone will be happy to put it up.

If looking to expand own game and think more in the terms you want this would be a great book for you to read.

(Edit:  Every hand revealed)  Aside from deepening your knowledge on the subjects you ask....well its just a **** good book. 

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Like breathing bud.  A book that helped me widen some of my lines on this and give real time hand examples was the gus Hansens Aussie Millions book.  Cant think what its called exactly just now but am sure someone will be happy to put it up. If looking to expand own game and think more in the terms you want this would be a great book for you to read. (Edit:  Every hand revealed)  Aside from deepening your knowledge on the subjects you ask....well its just a **** good book. 
Posted by AMYBR

Gus Hansen  "Every Hand revealed"

AMYBR

must have just beat you with my edit

Slykllist

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

Every hand I ever play :P learn the basics and is second nature given time.
Posted by AMYBR

^^ This

Buy yourself a copy of Harrington on Holdem volumes 1 and 2, it's heavy going sometimes but worth the effort IMO.

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

must have just beat you with my edit
Posted by AMYBR

Just lol.  I agree a cracking book.  Also you can watch him play some of the actual hands he was writing about on PokerTube

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : ^^ This Buy yourself a copy of Harrington on Holdem volumes 1 and 2, it's heavy going sometimes but worth the effort IMO.
Posted by Slykllist

Also great books.

I wrote a blog a few years back reviewing some books.  Here it is if anyone is interested

https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_blog&plckBlogId=Blog:37ff225b-0a0c-4463-91be-8b71b653a3b9&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&userId=37ff225b-0a0c-4463-91be-8b71b653a3b9&plckPostId=Blog%3a37ff225b-0a0c-4463-91be-8b71b653a3b9Post%3aa12a155e-2c59-4016-84a0-1ec2eb86bca1&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV:

In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Hi Lambert agree with most of what you say just the odds of hitting the flush post flop.  If you are holding 2 suited cards and there are two of the same suit on the flop then the odds of you hitting are 39.6%  approx 2 in 5 on the turn.  These odds obviously half on the River  Just thought i'd point that out. 
Posted by JockBMW

this cant be right, the hand below shows that we have only 37% which includes our backdoor 2pair draws
Board: Kh Qh 8s
Dead: 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
Hand 0:     62.929%      62.93%     00.00%                623             0.00   { AsKc }
Hand 1:     37.071%      37.07%     00.00%                367             0.00   { 3h2h }