In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Hi Lambert agree with most of what you say just the odds of hitting the flush post flop. If you are holding 2 suited cards and there are two of the same suit on the flop then the odds of you hitting are 39.6% approx 2 in 5 on the turn. These odds obviously half on the River Just thought i'd point that out. Posted by JockBMW
That's why I made the point of saying hitting your flush by the turn. You have 9 outs but to hit by the turn you only multiply by 2 so 18% ish so about 1 in 5.
The reason I used that example is because alot of people think, 'well the odds of hitting my flush are 1 in 3, so I can call cos I'm getting the right odds', but they don't realise that it's 1 in 3 to hit it by the river and there's a very good chance you're gonna have to call another bet on the turn if you wanna see the river, so it's not right to compare your pot odds on the flop to odds of hitting a hand by the river.
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : this cant be right, the hand below shows that we have only 37% which includes our backdoor 2pair draws Board: Kh Qh 8s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 62.929% 62.93% 00.00% 623 0.00 { AsKc } Hand 1: 37.071% 37.07% 00.00% 367 0.00 { 3h2h } Posted by LOL_RAISE
The odds I calculated were the odds of hitting a flush, that doesn't mean the odds of winning the hand, In your example I could still hit my flush but loose the hand. ie KingH on the turn ,Ace on the river. I hit my flush but loose to the full house. That's why your calcs are slightly lower, they are calcualting the chances of me winning
Even after spending hours of today researching into these more im still not confident. Can anyone help me undertsand it more or at least direct me to somwhere which will help. How often do you players use these and how improtant do you find them? thanks for any advice everyone Posted by robz7
Poker is a mathematical game. A knowledge of EV, pot odds, odds in general and all stats related to the game are very important. A basic knowledge of these things will take you so far. The deeper your understanding of these things the better player you will be. However don't get overawed. Take things one step at a time.
In terms of odds. I think you have 2.2% chance of hitting each card you require on the turn after the flop is dealt. And 4.4% to hit on either turn or river.
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : The odds I calculated were the odds of hitting a flush, that doesn't mean the odds of winning the hand, In your example I could still hit my flush but loose the hand. ie KingH on the turn ,Ace on the river. I hit my flush but loose to the full house. That's why your calcs are slightly lower, they are calcualting the chances of me winning Posted by JockBMW
we hold Xyhh villain has 2holecards board is ABC two hearts
chance of us hitting on flop = 9/47 = 19.1% chance of us missing the flop but hititng river = 80.9% * (9/46) = 15.82
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : we hold Xyhh villain has 2holecards board is ABC two hearts chance of us hitting on flop = 9/47 = 19.1% chance of us missing the flop but hititng river = 80.9% * (9/46) = 15.82 19.1 + 15.82 = 34.91 Posted by LOL_RAISE
Wait a minute, does pot odds only matter for flush and straight chances??? i still dont undertsnad ev
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : we hold Xyhh villain has 2holecards board is ABC two hearts chance of us hitting on flop = 9/47 = 19.1% chance of us missing the flop but hititng river = 80.9% * (9/46) = 15.82 19.1 + 15.82 = 34.91 Posted by LOL_RAISE
Don't think this is right, I'm pretty sure you dont discount the probabiility of the river hitting by the percantage of the Turn hitting. Highlighted this bit in Red
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Wait a minute, does pot odds only matter for flush and straight chances??? i still dont undertsnad ev Posted by robz7
Pot odds matter to every decision. Basically what you're asking is 'what are the odds of me hitting cards that are going to win the hand for me', then thinking, 'right if the odds of me hitting the cards I need are 1 in 5, if I call this bet, in this situation 5 times, and only win once, have I lost money or made money'.
If when you win 1 in 5 times, you're still making a profit on that call, it's +EV, if you lose, it's -EV, although as I said in an earlier post, one +EV move is not always the most +EV.
So in my example, if you're calling on the turn to hit a flush, assuming you're only interested in the turn... Once you flop a flush draw, you're about 1in5 to hit it on the turn, so imagine you have to call 500 and the pot is 1000, so the 4 times you lose, you throw away 2000 in total, and the one time you hit, you win 1500 (the 1000 plus the 500 you put in), so calling here is -EV. However if you had to pay 200 into a pot of 1000, the 4 times you lose you throw away 800 chips, and the one time you win, you win 1200, so it's +EV.
Again you gotta bear in mind that this is a very basic example and assumes another chip doesn't go in the pot when you hit the flush but you get the idea (I hope).
It's about knowing what's the correct decision long term. Like if someone open shoves 100BB, you call with 72off and he has AA and you happen to win that time, it's still a -EV move (obviously) because you will lose that race abuot 82% of the time.
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Don't think this is right, I'm pretty sure you dont discount the probabiility of the river hitting by the percantage of the Turn hitting. Highlighted this bit in Red But if I'm wrong someone will surely let me know Interesting debate anyway Posted by JockBMW
I think it's right, it's just sounds like you're talking abuot slightly different situations. The 80.9% is the chance of missing your card on the turn, so for two outcomes to BOTH happen you have to multiply them together, so you're multiplying the chance of missing on the turn by the chance of hitting on the river.
In Response to Re: Pot odd & EV : Pot odds matter to every decision. Basically what you're asking is 'what are the odds of me hitting cards that are going to win the hand for me' , then thinking, 'right if the odds of me hitting the cards I need are 1 in 5, if I call this bet, in this situation 5 times, and only win once, have I lost money or made money' . If when you win 1 in 5 times, you're still making a profit on that call, it's +EV, if you lose, it's -EV, although as I said in an earlier post, one +EV move is not always the most +EV. So in my example, if you're calling on the turn to hit a flush, assuming you're only interested in the turn... Once you flop a flush draw, you're about 1in5 to hit it on the turn, so imagine you have to call 500 and the pot is 1000, so the 4 times you lose, you throw away 2000 in total, and the one time you hit, you win 1500 (the 1000 plus the 500 you put in), so calling here is -EV. However if you had to pay 200 into a pot of 1000, the 4 times you lose you throw away 800 chips, and the one time you win, you win 1200, so it's +EV. Again you gotta bear in mind that this is a very basic example and assumes another chip doesn't go in the pot when you hit the flush but you get the idea (I hope). It's about knowing what's the correct decision long term. Like if someone open shoves 100BB, you call with 72off and he has AA and you happen to win that time, it's still a -EV move (obviously) because you will lose that race abuot 82% of the time. Posted by Lambert180
Comments
The reason I used that example is because alot of people think, 'well the odds of hitting my flush are 1 in 3, so I can call cos I'm getting the right odds', but they don't realise that it's 1 in 3 to hit it by the river and there's a very good chance you're gonna have to call another bet on the turn if you wanna see the river, so it's not right to compare your pot odds on the flop to odds of hitting a hand by the river.
In terms of odds. I think you have 2.2% chance of hitting each card you require on the turn after the flop is dealt. And 4.4% to hit on either turn or river.
chance of us hitting on flop = 9/47 = 19.1%
chance of us missing the flop but hititng river = 80.9% * (9/46) = 15.82
19.1 + 15.82 = 34.91
i still dont undertsnad ev
If when you win 1 in 5 times, you're still making a profit on that call, it's +EV, if you lose, it's -EV, although as I said in an earlier post, one +EV move is not always the most +EV.
So in my example, if you're calling on the turn to hit a flush, assuming you're only interested in the turn... Once you flop a flush draw, you're about 1in5 to hit it on the turn, so imagine you have to call 500 and the pot is 1000, so the 4 times you lose, you throw away 2000 in total, and the one time you hit, you win 1500 (the 1000 plus the 500 you put in), so calling here is -EV. However if you had to pay 200 into a pot of 1000, the 4 times you lose you throw away 800 chips, and the one time you win, you win 1200, so it's +EV.
Again you gotta bear in mind that this is a very basic example and assumes another chip doesn't go in the pot when you hit the flush but you get the idea (I hope).
It's about knowing what's the correct decision long term. Like if someone open shoves 100BB, you call with 72off and he has AA and you happen to win that time, it's still a -EV move (obviously) because you will lose that race abuot 82% of the time.