Fold top pair on river?

KKrippler

A - readless

B - Reg, tight, played alot last few days, have yet to see huge bluffs, ABC player.

Your hole cardsAJ   ARaise £1.20£1.65£59.34BCall £1.20£2.85£85.28KKripplerCall £1.20£4.05£67.96ronnieg197Fold    ricoramb03Fold    Flop  5J2   ACheck    BBet £3.00£7.05£82.28KKripplerCall £3.00£10.05£64.96ACall £3.00£13.05£56.34Turn  10   ACheck    BBet £9.00£22.05£73.28KKripplerCall £9.00£31.05£55.96ACall £9.00£40.05£47.34River  2   ACheck    BBet £22.80£62.85£50.48KKripplerFold    goochmanFold   

percival09

what limit is this? 30 or 40?

don't think it's played bad, I doubt villain's firing 3 barrels with worse, I know people will say if you call the flop and turn you have to call the river but i don't think so, villains 3 barrelling range is much more narrow than his single or double barrel range. Only thing you're beating is a busted flush. Hero could have J10, a set or overpair. 

You could maybe get away on the turn but idk

BorinLoner

The first thing I'm going to say is that I don't think you should call on the turn and then fold on the river. The 2 doesn't change anything really, so you need to make your decision on the hand before it gets to this point. If you can't call the bet on the river then you shouldn't call the bet on the turn. You need to think ahead and anticipate the bet on the river.

It really does depend on your reads on Player B. Is he the type of player that's can triple-barrell on a dry board with two other players in the hand. He almost certainly has something, since he has done this into two players. I wouldn't know but if I call on the turn I need to call the river.

There are some hands we can simply rule out. He only called pre-flop which is likely to rule out all over pairs. We have one of the Jacks which makes JJ unlikely and the normal play with JJ would be to 3-bet anyway. There will be some sets of 5's or 2's in his range having played this way and they have to be given consideration as does JT. However on such a dry board with top-pair, top kicker I'm probably calling him down here. KJ, QJ J9, etc only need to make up just over a quarter of his range to make this break-even. I wouldn't completely rule out a bluff with air or some sort of underpair either, though these bluffs aren't massively likely.

Read dependent. Is he capable of triple-barrelling with less than AJ here? If he's super-tight then you should fold the turn.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river?:

what limit is this? 30 or 40? don't think it's played bad, I doubt villain's firing 3 barrels with worse, I know people will say if you call the flop and turn you have to call the river but i don't think so, villains 3 barrelling range is much more narrow than his single or double barrel range. Only thing you're beating is a busted flush. Hero could have J10, a set or overpair.  You could maybe get away on the turn but idk
Posted by percival09

Excellent point. I thought it was a rainbow board, lol.

For me that makes the bluffs more likely and makes it more of a call on the river. The reason I say that I think the decision is on the turn is that, against a good player, I would expect the bet on the river as well. I don't think it's too likely that a reasonable player bets the flop, bets the turn, then checks the river, so I wouldn't necessarily perceive that river bet as being super-strong. People usually bet on only one street or on all three. If I think I'm ahead on the turn, I can't fold this blank river.

percival09

+1 actually, folding the turn is probz optimal

BorinLoner

I just want to redress something I said. He doesn't need to be super-tight for you to fold the turn, as I said. If he's only fairly tight then it's fine. Alot of tightish players who fire at this flop will go into check-fold mode when called with KJ, QJ, so when these type of players bet you can fold. I'm not saying it's always a fold against them but sometimes it will be. Again, it's very read dependent.

I stick by not folding the river though, after calling the turn.

KAM99

If your read on B is correct that is is a tight reg then I'm not sure you going to be good here that often. The only hand I see you beating are possibly a straight out bluff, as not sure he 3 barrels with a hand like KJ or JQ as they far more likley to C/C a river looking to pick off a bluff with their marginal hand.

My honest opinion here is that he has put you on a jack with a good kicker and has sized his bet on the river for what he thinks he will get you to call with a jack, and it looks super value town sized, and might have expected more for a buff, unless its a level game (he thought so I thought etc). Tough to laydown but have a feeling this river bet screams value. I know some are saying if you call turn you call river, but I might call turn with someone that may well barrel two streets with KJ, QJ etc, and while the theory is that if you call turn you call river if its blank I don't think we can to often here unless we know player B has a 3 barrel air ball bluff in his locker.

simonnatur

I'ld have thought the times he has the same hand + worse hand + missed draw will be roughly equal to the times he has you beat. With the price you're being layed I dont think you can fold. In a 6-max cash game I'ld more or less call this a cooler unless my read of the player was that he was super nitty.  

I'm a bit surprised you decided to show your decision on the river, it seems to me it makes you super-exploitable to anyone who takes the trouble to read.

rancid

if u call turn then call river

not sure I like flatting btn to then call two streets with TPTK and then fold river

oppo range is hardly narrow so could turn over a fair range of hands you beat

oppo probably turns over house and you sigh :S

KKrippler

Thanks for the comments

Think ppl are right in suggesting that if I call turn, I must call river. Oppo never has QJ or KJ by the way. Never.

It was NL40 and talking to Player A after the hand, he said ( but can you trust poker players) he had a monster and folded QQ.

I honestly not sure if the oppo is capable of three barrel bluffing. Thoughts were at the time (wrong or right) that if he barreled the river I have to fold.

Are oppo's less likely to bluff in a multi way pot aswell. He is never value betting worse, so I really think the fold is correct but maybe one street earlier.

KKrippler

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river?:

 I'm a bit surprised you decided to show your decision on the river, it seems to me it makes you super-exploitable to anyone who takes the trouble to read.
Posted by simonnatur

Dont think so. Feel like im making the decision based on Player B's style of play and the unlikelihood that he is capable of three barrel bluffing.

Versus other oppo's I snap it off, and if im behind than fine. 

percival09

unless villain is incredibly spewy he's never value betting here with less than AJ

simonnatur

How do you all feel about making it £12-15 on the flop and if both stick around or raise you can be pretty sure youre dead in the water?

percival09

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river?:

How do you all feel about making it £12-15 on the flop and if both stick around or raise you can be pretty sure youre dead in the water?
Posted by simonnatur

hate it

LnarinOO

from my experience this looks like a clear value line from villian B, he has u crushed imo.. a TAG abc player i belive would mostly go for a c/raise with a draw vs 2 opponents rather then lead the flop..

i think the leak from our pov is on the turn, i would lean more strongly to a fold given the action.. this is because even player A's over calling range beats us. for him to overcall in this spot i think he has jj-AA. he's pot controllig and is wawb. he doesnt want to lead into two players oop. player B must no this also and cant put two players on draws and just keep barrelling seemily bad cards to barrell as a bluff...

i fold the turn defo

_ARAZI_

I always wonder why players say ( if you call turn you have to call river ).

Why can you not change your mind ?

Alot of players would bet turn here with a big J then check call river once they get called behind to control pot imo so to call turn and fold to a river bet isnt bad at all the way i see it mate.

But the old " if you call turn you have to call river " thing is wrong imo.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river?:

I always wonder why players say ( if you call turn you have to call river ). Why can you not change your mind ? Alot of players would bet turn here with a big J then check call river once they get called behind to control pot imo so to call turn and fold to a river bet isnt bad at all the way i see it mate. But the old " if you call turn you have to call river " thing is wrong imo.
Posted by _ARAZI_

The simple reason why I and others would say this here is that nothing changes on the river. So if you thought you were ahead on the turn, you must still think you're ahead on the river. If you didn't think you were ahead on the turn, then you shouldn't have called on the turn.

The issue is that when you're making the call on the turn, you should anticipate his bet on the river. If he has a value hand then he will continue to bet on the river after you call. If he's bluffing and he's fired on two streets, there's every chance that he will continue on the river.

If you call the turn, hoping that he won't bet on the river then you're doing just that; hoping. You're not acting on the basis of a plan. We don't want to play poker hoping that our opponent's will be accomodating to us because that's not what they want to do.

On this hand, since nothing changes on the river, you've either made a mistake by calling the turn or you're making a mistake by folding on the river. You're allowed to change your mind, of course. If you get to the river and think "woops, I made a mistake calling on the turn", then you'd be silly to follow that by making another mistake by calling on the river if you think you're behind. The key is to admit that you made the mistake on the turn, and then not make the same mistake the next time you're in a similar situation.

So next time you're in a hand like this and someone bets the turn ask yourself: "Can I stand another bet on a blank river?" If the answer is no, then you should fold the turn. Hoping that he won't bet the river is going to be -ev against any decent player.

LnarinOO

i too dont fully agree with this logic, i do unsterstand it to a point, but think its a really simple way of thinking tbh, and maybe old school??

todays games are aggro as im sure you all know. ppl are for ever barreling off like crazed spew tards and i constantly find myself clicking call twice on flop and turn to evaluate the river. it is hard for ppl to 3barrel and my decision will come from things like player types, history, dynamics of the game, board texture, percived ranges, how villian percieves me etc etc.. not jus give up on a hand after 1 street cos i might not be able to 'play poker ' on future streets..

just my thoughts. and i totally agree that you shold always have a game plan and be thinkin ahead, but poker is a 3street game so play poker imo, poker is situational..!

BorinLoner

Wow, I've never been old school before.

The simple fact is that most of the time when someone bets the flop and turn, there's a good chance - more than 50% - that they will bet on the river. If you're constantly calling them down intending to fold to a river bet, you'll make yourself pretty exploitable.

People say triple-barreling is hard and it is hard with air. It's not hard to bet the flop on a draw, bet the turn on a draw and then bet the river having missed the draw, hoping that a) your opponents have also missed their draw or b) your opponent's will lay down their hand because you've shown strength on three streets and all they can beat is a missed draw.

I'm not saying I would definitely call it down here, but I would know what I was going to do on a blank river when making my mind up on the turn. If I can't stand a bet on the river I'd fold the turn.

The term "Old school" has become something of an insult these days. The thing is that a winning old school player is still a winning player. Even if I was an old school player, I'd be better than a "new school" losing player.

This point of not hoping for your opponents to be accomodating is neither old nor new school. It's just good poker. Poker is of course situational but if you keep calling bets, just hoping your opponent will slow down, you'll be losing money in these situations. You'll be very exploitable.

BorinLoner

If you have notes on a particular player that are so specific as "Bluffs on flop and turn but rarely bluffs the river", then fair enough. Otherwise, as a rule you shouldn't be expecting someone to not bet the third street after they've bet on two. You can hope they won't, but you definitely shouldn't expect it.

_ARAZI_

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river?:

In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river? : The simple reason why I and others would say this here is that nothing changes on the river. So if you thought you were ahead on the turn, you must still think you're ahead on the river. If you didn't think you were ahead on the turn, then you shouldn't have called on the turn. The issue is that when you're making the call on the turn, you should anticipate his bet on the river. If he has a value hand then he will continue to bet on the river after you call. If he's bluffing and he's fired on two streets, there's every chance that he will continue on the river. If you call the turn, hoping that he won't bet on the river then you're doing just that; hoping. You're not acting on the basis of a plan. We don't want to play poker hoping that our opponent's will be accomodating to us because that's not what they want to do. On this hand, since nothing changes on the river, you've either made a mistake by calling the turn or you're making a mistake by folding on the river. You're allowed to change your mind, of course. If you get to the river and think "woops, I made a mistake calling on the turn", then you'd be silly to follow that by making another mistake by calling on the river if you think you're behind. The key is to admit that you made the mistake on the turn, and then not make the same mistake the next time you're in a similar situation. So next time you're in a hand like this and someone bets the turn ask yourself: "Can I stand another bet on a blank river?" If the answer is no, then you should fold the turn. Hoping that he won't bet the river is going to be -ev against any decent player.
Posted by BorinLoner

Problem with this thinking imo mate is that AJ would be ahead of alot of hands that most players fire 2 bullets with but not ahead of many that players fire 3 bullets with.

IMO calling the turn is ok because like i say in above post alot of players holding strong Js will fire 2 bullets then check call river for pot control letting you get to showdown for no extra investment and very few will fire 3 bullets in this situation with hands weaker than AJ so the only way you actually find this out is by calling the turn and this is the point when the strength of their hand becomes more clear imo.


All a game of opinions ofc but this is mine