i too dont fully agree with this logic, i do unsterstand it to a point, but think its a really simple way of thinking tbh, and maybe old school?? todays games are aggro as im sure you all know. ppl are for ever barreling off like crazed spew tards and i constantly find myself clicking call twice on flop and turn to evaluate the river. it is hard for ppl to 3barrel and my decision will come from things like player types, history, dynamics of the game, board texture, percived ranges, how villian percieves me etc etc.. not jus give up on a hand after 1 street cos i might not be able to 'play poker ' on future streets.. just my thoughts. and i totally agree that you shold always have a game plan and be thinkin ahead, but poker is a 3street game so play poker imo, poker is situational..! Posted by LnarinOO
In Response to Re: Fold top pair on river? : Problem with this thinking imo mate is that AJ would be ahead of alot of hands that most players fire 2 bullets with but not ahead of many that players fire 3 bullets with. IMO calling the turn is ok because like i say in above post alot of players holding strong Js will fire 2 bullets then check call river for pot control letting you get to showdown for no extra investment and very few will fire 3 bullets in this situation with hands weaker than AJ so the only way you actually find this out is by calling the turn and this is the point when the strength of their hand becomes more clear imo. All a game of opinions ofc but this is mine Posted by _ARAZI_
To my mind the problem is that, although they will check the river some of the time, it won't happen more often than not. So while you will get to showdown sometimes without paying anymore, more often you will not. That makes it a losing play in the long term. It also means that when you call the turn you have 0 implied odds unless you intend to then value bet on the river if they check.
You've got to go with what will be right the higher percentage of the time.
The fact he's betting into two players on both the flop and turn should make it even more likely that you should expect a bet on the river.
If you think I'm wrong then fair enough. I don't think I can contribute any more though as the arguments seem to have been well covered by all sides and I don't think I can say anything more convincing. Unless something new comes up I won't be replying to this thread again for fear of it driving me mad. lol
If you think I'm wrong then fair enough. I don't think I can contribute any more though as the arguments seem to have been well covered by all sides and I don't think I can say anything more convincing. Unless something new comes up I won't be replying to this thread again for fear of it driving me mad. lol Posted by BorinLoner
We all have our own thoughts on it mate and i respect yours.
Like i say its only my opinion on things.
Were all just trying to learn and debates like this are the way to do it.
Oh yeah, don't think I'm getting steamed about it or anything. I just don't see that I can really say anymore, that's all.
You're right about these debates being good to help us learn. I have pretty strong opinions on most things but the clinic is a big help in getting me to question those opinions: Reaffirming my good thoughts and habits and helping get me out of bad habits.
borinloner i think u have misunderstood me... im not calling u oldschool atall, jus questioning some of your logic..!!
as i said earlier i only partly disagree , of cousre if i call turn assumin im good, of course i call a bricked river, makes no sense not too.. my questionin comes to the' oh i have to pass the turn because more times than not im gonna face a river bet..
not taking this hand into account ( because i think its more of a fold on the turn)..
my turn decisions comes to alot more decisions and possible outcomes, for instance bluff outs or jus board textres and all of what i mentioned earlier.. as ive said u should always have a plan of what ur gonna do..
i may have been misuderstood slightly.. ive not directly been talking about this hand in particular jus sum of the logc that was mentioned
The point I'm making is pretty much for this hand or similar situations. If you know that you can't call a river bet, even if it blanks out, and you think it's more likely than not that you will face a bet on the river after he's bet flop and turn, then it's not a profitable call on the turn. I'm sure we both agree on that.
The only source of disagreement seems to be whether we will face a river bet more often than not in this situation. My thoughts are simply that you can't expect him to bet as either a bluff or a value play on the flop and turn, then not bet on the river. More often than not, I think, he will carry on with both his bluffs and value hands. Even if that only happens 55% of the time, it's demonstrably -ev to call the turn intending to fold the river.
Comments
Fully agree with this mate.
You worded it alot better than i did
You've got to go with what will be right the higher percentage of the time.
The fact he's betting into two players on both the flop and turn should make it even more likely that you should expect a bet on the river.
We all have our own thoughts on it mate and i respect yours.
Like i say its only my opinion on things.
Were all just trying to learn and debates like this are the way to do it.
GN mate
You're right about these debates being good to help us learn. I have pretty strong opinions on most things but the clinic is a big help in getting me to question those opinions: Reaffirming my good thoughts and habits and helping get me out of bad habits.
The point I'm making is pretty much for this hand or similar situations. If you know that you can't call a river bet, even if it blanks out, and you think it's more likely than not that you will face a bet on the river after he's bet flop and turn, then it's not a profitable call on the turn. I'm sure we both agree on that.
The only source of disagreement seems to be whether we will face a river bet more often than not in this situation. My thoughts are simply that you can't expect him to bet as either a bluff or a value play on the flop and turn, then not bet on the river. More often than not, I think, he will carry on with both his bluffs and value hands. Even if that only happens 55% of the time, it's demonstrably -ev to call the turn intending to fold the river.