In Response to Re: What is the right move : This is what makes shoving so strong as opposed to calling. By shoving we have 2 ways to win the hand, by calling we have 1 way to win the hand. Ino which I would prefer. I'm not saying you have to shove with A10 UTG, however if we do we can win the hand by getting folds (sometimes from hands that we are losing too) or we can make the best hand if we are called. Posted by Curt360x27
I know if i shove it's fine. If i fold is fine none of these are bad plays but there so many reason to me not even in this hand why i hate the mid rage hand shove. even more so with a hand like A-10 mainly becaouse the range of hands that call me are pairs or big A so with that i'am crushed or racing i would rather be shoving with say a 10-9 or a 6-5 becaouse the A calls me i have better odds of winning. But i can still play poker with 12 BB. 7-6 BB is where i shove or fold
I've held off on commenting on this because I wanted to see how much you would understand of your mistakes in this hand and how willing you were to accept advice. There seem to be four areas where your understanding needs improving:
1) The value of the dead money in the pot. 2) The value of being first into the pot and EXPECTED VALUE. 3) The strength of your hand, relative to your position. 4) Maintaining your stack size and fold equity.
1) The reason why we should shove or fold when we have 12.5BB as here - or even as high as 20BB in some situations - is that the value of the dead money in the pot makes up a significant proportion of our stack. In this example, the 60k in the pot would be a 12% boost to our stack at a time when we and many other players at the table are short. That is a significant boost to our stack and effectively means we pay the rent for another orbit.
2) When we get our money in first we give ourselves two chances of winning: Our opponent may fold or our hand may win at showdown. The importance of this is that we can effectively add the value of our opponents fold to the chances of our hand being best at showdown. Let's say we make the shove and play this exact scenario out 100 times:
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000 15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral 15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
NET RESULT: +1,950,000
These numbers are merely illustrative and do not include the possibility of being called by worse than AT or of being called by AA. However we can see that the net result of shoving across a 100 hand sample is a profit of 1,950,000 chips. This is what we refer to as the Expected Value(EV) of the shove. The added value of the folds is the huge benefit to our stack and even when the chances of being called and being behind are added in, we're still making a profit.
The trick is in assessing how likely it is that we will be called. If we alter these numbers to say that the other players all fold only 60% of the time, 20% of the time we're flipping and 20% of the time we're a 70/30 underdog, the expected value becomes -400,000 chips.
3) Our position at the table is critical to assessing our hand strength. When we're folded to on the button or in the Small Blind with AT our hand is very likely to be best. This is because AT is far ahead of the average hand (Q7) and there are only one or two players yet to act. This means they are very likely to have weaker hands than our AT. Obviously the more players there are yet to act, the greater the chance that someone is holding a better hand than ours. When we're Under The Gun with AT there are five unknown hands behind us meaning there is a far greater chance that our AT is not the best hand. This forces the Expected Value of our shove down and means it's less profitable to play the hand. Our hand effectively becomes weaker as our position grows worse.
4) I think awareness of fold equity is perhaps the weakest area of your understanding. The reason that people say you should never be raising out of your 12.5BB stack with the intention of folding to a raise is simply that as you lose chips your fold equity falls and therefore your opportunities to win pots without the best hand are reduced. If we shove an unopened pot for 12BB, our opponents need a good hand to call but if we do the same with 9BB they don't need such a good hand and with 6BB they need even less of a hand. Once you get below 5BB they don't need any hand at all to call and you have lost all of your fold equity and are now totally reliant on your hand to be best. This means you are no longer playing a game of skill, you are playing a game of pure chance.
By being willing to bet 2.5BB and then fold you are willing to allow your stack to fall to 10BB without seeing a flop. After the blinds pass through you, you will have only 8.5BB. With 8.5BB you have far less fold equity than you do with 12.5BB or the 11BB you would otherwise have. Those extra chips that you have lost have greater value than just 2.5BB, they have the value of increasing your chances to win chips in future. By raising, then folding, you not only lose 100k chips but also the extra chips that those 100k could have allowed you to win.
These are the reasons why you should be either shoving or folding when your stack is this small. Raise-folding costs you more chips than you think. Also, there's a good chance that by raising then folding, someone might shove on us with a hand like 22, 33, 44, 55 or 66 that they might not be willing to make an all-in call with. We end up folding what would be a race and losing 2.5BB, while if we'd shoved we would have claimed the pot and gained 1.5BB. Remember, if we shove with AT and they call with these underpairs we've made a better EV play than they have. The same is true in reverse, so if we call a shove from them with AT hoping to see an underpair, they have made a better EV play than us.
As it is in this hand I think I would probably fold. I would rather make a shove into an unopened pot from late position with any two cards than shove from early position with this. It's a close decision, though. It all depends on how tight the table has been playing. If they've been tight and are unlikely to call without a big made hand then it's more a shove as I'm going to win without a showdown more often. Certainly a limp is never correct out of this stack and neither is a raise, intending to fold.
It's difficult to gauge exactly how much you are aware of from just a few posts but I can see that some of this ought to be helpful.
In Response to Re: What is the right move : It make's little difference if i double up with 500k and if i double up with 400k this is why i can raise fold Posted by Luke_Jones
No you simply can't raise fold here. However I do understand what your trying to say. You can raise/fold with around 16-20bb against good players who understand the fundamentals of stack sizes in relation to the blinds. This means if you raise 2.5x pre, to them you have just moved all in, so you can fold if someone shoves over your raise as your going to be racing at best. With 12bb though you can't do this. As someone already mentioned, given the % of your stack you've put in, if someone shoves you would HAVE to call.
I think BorinLoner has summed up all the thoughts and more of everyone who has posted on here. Personally I think you should read his post thouroughly and try improve your game from it because it's an excellent, well thought out post. Like I said no one is trying to have a go at you, everyone just wants to try and help. GL at the tables.
It's not me not understanding advice people giving me i have had this argument for YEARS and the few people i have found that do agree me a good at poker right i'm just going to take this one bit
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000 15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral 15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
LET ME CHANGE THIS AS A JOKER OK
95% of the time our opponents all fold 5% of the time one opponent calls
I AM STILL NOT GOING TO SHOVE I Play poker i take as much gamble out of my game as possible.I know people not having a go CURT360 but i had this argument for years. when i can win an extra £1500 with 6 players left and i know 5 of them i can crush and destroy i don't need to gamble i wont.
i went through 4950 players being without being allin once. in one day i played 2 tourney with 5k players and came 4th and 1st ok i dont think i will do that again any time soon but it works i know it works. if you are playing with good players right forget the stack sizes and i raise pre flop 12x i know if i get called i'am not going to be over the moon when somone calls now lets say this get's through and everyone folds what happens next hand then do i now raise 3x then fold to a shove leaving myself 10 BB if not do i carry on shoving till i'm up to how many BB? 16BB - 20 BB so either way everyone who agree's with this have look those made up odds thing by borinloaner cuz those odds can only be made when you have good idea how everyone on the table is playing for example if somone calls everyhand where your 15% odd they call now it's 100% yea lol.
But the big thing is if you say and stick with this rule how many time's do you do this and when do you say you can play poker again i'am just guessing but to me if you say you have to fold or shove with 12 BB then you must say that you need at least 18BB right so this would mean. You need a double up before you can play again yes. you get you double up your up too 24BB boom yea 2 lots of blinds go past we ent had a hand to play back down too 21BB now chance to nick the blinds somone shoves back down too 18BB i call on a board tryed to make a flush didn't get there lost the hand down to 11BB now ok here we go again allin or fold yes got the double up but the blinds have just gone up now i have only 14BB dam dam lets go again.
Ok i'am taking the mic with this now but ok if you get down low on chips you can still build your chips stack the same way if you have a large stack SO MUCH in big tournments unless you doing really well on chips there usually come's a stage when everyone do's not have many blinds unless a good deep stack tournment. if you are the one just trying to get the lucky double up's you will be the loosing player. The players making those little bets trying to grind there way up agressive or tight players they will be the one's making the money in the long run.
I'm calling a poker friend to get him to explain better for me anyway lol it's been fun
o yea one last thing though people saying i can't bet 20% of my stack and fold i can understand the debate about this but that is jut %$^%$ING stupid. come play some cash with me i know if you got £500 on the table i know if you get £100 in the pot i can have the rest of the £400 lol jokers
I can't understand why you would start a thread asking for advice, then refuse to listen and in fact insult people who try to offer you that advice.
Just to address one or two points:
I have seen awful players win poker tournaments and I have no doubt that you have won some and placed highly in others. The trouble is that you think it's rational to use a few tournaments as examples of your own great ability. You need to appreciate that small sample sizes are meaningless and only over thousands of tournaments will your results actually reflect your ability.
You can't defend -EV plays as being good because they might win a tournament or two. Across a large sample size these plays will lose you money. That is not merely my opinion but indisputable, concrete fact. Arguing with that is simply illogical and betrays your own limited understanding of the game.
I'm afraid that those "jokers" you refer to are far better players than you. Since they are willing to listen and learn they will undoubtedly improve further, while you will not.
WOW Unbelievable how arrogant and niave you are! Someone has taken the time and effort to explain in the clearest possible way what to do in these spots and you STILL refuse to accept he may just have a point!
Comments
1) The value of the dead money in the pot.
2) The value of being first into the pot and EXPECTED VALUE.
3) The strength of your hand, relative to your position.
4) Maintaining your stack size and fold equity.
1) The reason why we should shove or fold when we have 12.5BB as here - or even as high as 20BB in some situations - is that the value of the dead money in the pot makes up a significant proportion of our stack. In this example, the 60k in the pot would be a 12% boost to our stack at a time when we and many other players at the table are short. That is a significant boost to our stack and effectively means we pay the rent for another orbit.
2) When we get our money in first we give ourselves two chances of winning: Our opponent may fold or our hand may win at showdown. The importance of this is that we can effectively add the value of our opponents fold to the chances of our hand being best at showdown. Let's say we make the shove and play this exact scenario out 100 times:
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
NET RESULT: +1,950,000
These numbers are merely illustrative and do not include the possibility of being called by worse than AT or of being called by AA. However we can see that the net result of shoving across a 100 hand sample is a profit of 1,950,000 chips. This is what we refer to as the Expected Value(EV) of the shove. The added value of the folds is the huge benefit to our stack and even when the chances of being called and being behind are added in, we're still making a profit.
The trick is in assessing how likely it is that we will be called. If we alter these numbers to say that the other players all fold only 60% of the time, 20% of the time we're flipping and 20% of the time we're a 70/30 underdog, the expected value becomes -400,000 chips.
3) Our position at the table is critical to assessing our hand strength. When we're folded to on the button or in the Small Blind with AT our hand is very likely to be best. This is because AT is far ahead of the average hand (Q7) and there are only one or two players yet to act. This means they are very likely to have weaker hands than our AT. Obviously the more players there are yet to act, the greater the chance that someone is holding a better hand than ours. When we're Under The Gun with AT there are five unknown hands behind us meaning there is a far greater chance that our AT is not the best hand. This forces the Expected Value of our shove down and means it's less profitable to play the hand. Our hand effectively becomes weaker as our position grows worse.
4) I think awareness of fold equity is perhaps the weakest area of your understanding. The reason that people say you should never be raising out of your 12.5BB stack with the intention of folding to a raise is simply that as you lose chips your fold equity falls and therefore your opportunities to win pots without the best hand are reduced. If we shove an unopened pot for 12BB, our opponents need a good hand to call but if we do the same with 9BB they don't need such a good hand and with 6BB they need even less of a hand. Once you get below 5BB they don't need any hand at all to call and you have lost all of your fold equity and are now totally reliant on your hand to be best. This means you are no longer playing a game of skill, you are playing a game of pure chance.
By being willing to bet 2.5BB and then fold you are willing to allow your stack to fall to 10BB without seeing a flop. After the blinds pass through you, you will have only 8.5BB. With 8.5BB you have far less fold equity than you do with 12.5BB or the 11BB you would otherwise have. Those extra chips that you have lost have greater value than just 2.5BB, they have the value of increasing your chances to win chips in future. By raising, then folding, you not only lose 100k chips but also the extra chips that those 100k could have allowed you to win.
These are the reasons why you should be either shoving or folding when your stack is this small. Raise-folding costs you more chips than you think. Also, there's a good chance that by raising then folding, someone might shove on us with a hand like 22, 33, 44, 55 or 66 that they might not be willing to make an all-in call with. We end up folding what would be a race and losing 2.5BB, while if we'd shoved we would have claimed the pot and gained 1.5BB. Remember, if we shove with AT and they call with these underpairs we've made a better EV play than they have. The same is true in reverse, so if we call a shove from them with AT hoping to see an underpair, they have made a better EV play than us.
As it is in this hand I think I would probably fold. I would rather make a shove into an unopened pot from late position with any two cards than shove from early position with this. It's a close decision, though. It all depends on how tight the table has been playing. If they've been tight and are unlikely to call without a big made hand then it's more a shove as I'm going to win without a showdown more often. Certainly a limp is never correct out of this stack and neither is a raise, intending to fold.
It's difficult to gauge exactly how much you are aware of from just a few posts but I can see that some of this ought to be helpful.
However I do understand what your trying to say. You can raise/fold with around 16-20bb against good players who understand the fundamentals of stack sizes in relation to the blinds. This means if you raise 2.5x pre, to them you have just moved all in, so you can fold if someone shoves over your raise as your going to be racing at best.
With 12bb though you can't do this. As someone already mentioned, given the % of your stack you've put in, if someone shoves you would HAVE to call.
Personally I think you should read his post thouroughly and try improve your game from it because it's an excellent, well thought out post.
Like I said no one is trying to have a go at you, everyone just wants to try and help. GL at the tables.
It's not me not understanding advice people giving me i have had this argument for YEARS and the few people i have found that do agree me a good at poker right i'm just going to take this one bit
70% of the time our opponents all fold - Result: We gain 4,200,000
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are a 50% to win - Result: Neutral
15% of the time one opponent calls and we are 30% to win - Result: We lose 2,250,000
LET ME CHANGE THIS AS A JOKER OK
95% of the time our opponents all fold
5% of the time one opponent calls
I AM STILL NOT GOING TO SHOVE I Play poker i take as much gamble out of my game as possible.I know people not having a go CURT360 but i had this argument for years. when i can win an extra £1500 with 6 players left and i know 5 of them i can crush and destroy i don't need to gamble i wont.
i went through 4950 players being without being allin once. in one day i played 2 tourney with 5k players and came 4th and 1st ok i dont think i will do that again any time soon but it works i know it works. if you are playing with good players right forget the stack sizes and i raise pre flop 12x i know if i get called i'am not going to be over the moon when somone calls now lets say this get's through and everyone folds what happens next hand then do i now raise 3x then fold to a shove leaving myself 10 BB if not do i carry on shoving till i'm up to how many BB? 16BB - 20 BB so either way everyone who agree's with this have look those made up odds thing by borinloaner cuz those odds can only be made when you have good idea how everyone on the table is playing for example if somone calls everyhand where your 15% odd they call now it's 100% yea lol.
But the big thing is if you say and stick with this rule how many time's do you do this and when do you say you can play poker again i'am just guessing but to me if you say you have to fold or shove with 12 BB then you must say that you need at least 18BB right so this would mean. You need a double up before you can play again yes. you get you double up your up too 24BB boom yea 2 lots of blinds go past we ent had a hand to play back down too 21BB now chance to nick the blinds somone shoves back down too 18BB i call on a board tryed to make a flush didn't get there lost the hand down to 11BB now ok here we go again allin or fold yes got the double up but the blinds have just gone up now i have only 14BB dam dam lets go again.
Ok i'am taking the mic with this now but ok if you get down low on chips you can still build your chips stack the same way if you have a large stack SO MUCH in big tournments unless you doing really well on chips there usually come's a stage when everyone do's not have many blinds unless a good deep stack tournment. if you are the one just trying to get the lucky double up's you will be the loosing player. The players making those little bets trying to grind there way up agressive or tight players they will be the one's making the money in the long run.
I'm calling a poker friend to get him to explain better for me anyway lol it's been fun
o yea one last thing though people saying i can't bet 20% of my stack and fold i can understand the debate about this but that is jut %$^%$ING stupid. come play some cash with me i know if you got £500 on the table i know if you get £100 in the pot i can have the rest of the £400 lol jokers
Just to address one or two points:
I have seen awful players win poker tournaments and I have no doubt that you have won some and placed highly in others. The trouble is that you think it's rational to use a few tournaments as examples of your own great ability. You need to appreciate that small sample sizes are meaningless and only over thousands of tournaments will your results actually reflect your ability.
You can't defend -EV plays as being good because they might win a tournament or two. Across a large sample size these plays will lose you money. That is not merely my opinion but indisputable, concrete fact. Arguing with that is simply illogical and betrays your own limited understanding of the game.
I'm afraid that those "jokers" you refer to are far better players than you. Since they are willing to listen and learn they will undoubtedly improve further, while you will not.
WOW
Unbelievable how arrogant and niave you are! Someone has taken the time and effort to explain in the clearest possible way what to do in these spots and you STILL refuse to accept he may just have a point!