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Four Candles Ratings-reintroduced

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Back to 66.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Thursdays ratings

    iiii - Top Notch 7-2 -1.30  - Looking for a five timer and impressive all season. 2nd OK I might be biased but if he hadn't made that mistake at the second he would have won. Lost three lengths and only lost by one

    iii - Uxizandre 4-1 2.50 - Hoping he can turn round form with Un De Seaux. Completely dominated by Un De Seaux and gave up the ghost. Not the force of old.

    ii - Thomas Crapper 9-1 = Loves this course and won easily a couple of weeks ago after a breathing op and well treated on old form. Coasting most of the way but then couldn't live with the pace of the two up front  plugged on for 4th.

    I - La Bague Au Roi 14-1- 4.50 - Unbeaten this season and trainer very optimistic when interviewed on Saturday Led for a long time but then went backwards quickly.


    Willie, Ruby and Ireland owned the course today
    other fancies

    2.10 Splash of Ginge 40-1 Gayebury 16-1 nowhere
    3.30 Cole Harden 11-1 and Zarkander 25-1 4th and nowhere, pity Lil Rockfeller didn't win
    4.10 saver 0n Baron Alco 14-1 Ran a cracker for 2nd
    4.50 little bet on frenchie Titi De Montmartre 25-1 nowhere
    5.30 Lamb or Cod 33-1 Alvarado 22-1 both nowhere
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    down to 62.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Oh dear me what do I do. Ruby and Willie out of form then they return with a bang. Tizzard/Twiston Davies out of form do they have a recovery on Friday. I certainly fancied there horses before their bad runs started. Do I stick or twist. Oh well here goes.

    iiii - Wholestone 6-1 - 2.50- Was one of my bankers for the meeting and cant leave him now despite poor form of trainer. 4 out of 5 and twice here on good ground 3rd and best of English but Irish are red hot and Penhill finished like a train

    iii - ~Cue Card 9-2 - 3.30 -Would have walked this last year if not for jockey pushing him too hard into fence. Hoping he can get his due today and always runs well at festival. Fell at 3rd last again and we cant blame jockey this time

    ii- Master Blueeyes 7-1 -1.30 Another trainer not exactly firing on all cylinders and might have got lucky when Charli Parks, who had beat him earlier fell last time, however think this boy has improved and hopeful he can win. Like Elgin his jumping went to pot under pressure but winner was on another planet. 

    I - Mick Jazz 8-1 -2.10- Haven't rated many irish horses this week which has been my downfall, however I couldn't leave this one out. Trainer had a good Cheltenham and reckoned his main chances were later in week. Think this is one he was talking about and was 2nd to Labaik three runs back. NR

    Othr fancies
    2.10  Saver Ivanovich Gorbatov 10-1 5th
    4.10 Grand Vision 33-1
    4.50 Dadsintrouble 16-1 also small bets on Coo coo Sivol;a 12  and Remiluc33
    5.30 LePrezien 6-1 small saver on Un Beau Roman 33-1
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Down to 59.50 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Need to get my Cheltenham losses back with my horses today.

    iiii - Solstice Star = 12-1 3.00 ~Uttoxetr - Won a few handicap hurdles before being sent chasing. Brought back to hurdles and ran a good staying on 4th at Chepstow behind Gayebury who had only just been beaten by Cheltenham winner Willoughby Court. Already been backed from 16-1 . 2nd at 14's Ran a cracker even if he pulled a bit at stages and nice to get the Forecast with Fortunate George and a saver on that at 15-2 as the backup.

    iii - Mysteree - 15-2 -3.35 Uttox- Won the Eider Cup in good style beating  Knockanrawley last time so will stay and good strike rate. SF Mad Brian to beat mine . 2nd ran brilliantly just got done on run in

    ii- Days of Heaven 7-2 2.05 K - 2 from 2 at Kempton and has run his last two races in top class USA jumps meetings Trainer in form. WOW winner at 4-1 and loved the course and ground, needs to be followed

    I- Divine Spear 10-1 -2.40 K Another Henderson horse who finished 2nd to Air Horse One last time. He was third in Albert Bartlett today so solid form. straight forecast Golden spear to beat mine as saver. 2nd Ran well although in snatches as pressure came on, easy winner though

    Also done 
    1.50 u Graaften 7-4 Last

     Baywing - 9-1 2.25 U - Good hurdler who after one races over fences won easily at Wetherby last time. Handicapper has given him 15lb rise but still hopeful he can do it. NR, suggests they are waiting for prime conditions for another win off present mark. Have switched to Rock the Kasbah 2nd, winner impressive

    1.50 U -Sir Note 5-1 Another 2nd
    3.00 U saver Fortunate George 15/2 Winner
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    up to 60.5 points up but had a tremendous day except for Graasten !!!!!!
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    iiii - 2.25 Newbury - O,Moanlai -7-1 - galloping all over Thomas Crapper last time when he fell. TC then finished 4th at Cheltenham. 5th travelled well until near the end..

    iii - 3.15 Kelso - Baywing 4-1 see last weeks notes when it was NR  -4th

    ii -2.40 Kelso - SeeyouatMidnight - 4-1 - Ran in two chase recently winning one and then pulled up in Betfair. Back over hurdles where he is well in on old hurdles form.  2nd

    I -4.45 Newbury- Ginge De Sophia-11-1 - Second last time and now against a lot of first time outers and with all the female allowances. just realised bumper so experience not needed as much , led for long time and tired tonowhere
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited March 2017
    Down to 56.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    This weeks ratings come with a health rating. although I haven't had to put any money in my betting account for four years both the last two flat seasons have seen my account reduced by quite a margin. Also with not much turf form to go on its always a bit of a gamble this time of year,

    Here goes more in hope than confidence

    iiii- Linguistic 3-1 - 2.05 Kempton - John Gosden has farmed this race in recent seasons and this horse has less weight to carry than usual, due to a gelding op. Hoping it inspires him. 2nd, pity the winner got up the rails!!!!!

    iii- Big Country 4-1 - 3.15 K - Won last time out and think he might be a handicap blot. Winner very impressively back until he loses

    ii- Yuften 4-1 - 3.35 Doncaster- was a rating last time otu when he never got the run of the race but finished strongly to be beaten by two noses into 3rd This is his time to win. Saver Highland Colori to beat Yuften. also This is us looks like he has form and draw so have added him into forecast. Drawn wrongly and jockey brought him more onto the bad side but the winner drawn even worse and  Danny Tudhope did the right thing went to the good side and won. He deserves  a medal.

    I- Tullius 8-1 -3.00 Doncaster - Good class horse who has done well first time out before. nowhere butnot given hard ride. Hannon/ and moore on fire. Jason Weaver not doing bad either

    Also backed
    1.50 Don -Tupi -7-1- Easy winner always going to win.should have put him into my ratings
    2.25 Don -sacred Act- 5-1 saver Examiner to beat mine.  nowhere and by the looks of it not on right side of track
    2.40 K- Justice Good -6-1 Nowhere
    second race uttox Big Brother George 16-1 nowhere

    Richard Hannon already had two winners and strongly fancies Bahar now 3-1  in second race at Chelmsford lost
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    up to 57.5 points up.
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    Here we go on one of the best racing days of the year.

    iiii - Finians Oscar 3-1 -2,25 Aintree- missed Cheltenham through slight injury and now recovered and will be fresh. was ante post fav for the Neptune and now Trainer back in form and an in form jockey he should win and keep his unbeaten record. WINNER, never in doubt now seven out of seven and still will improve.

    iii- Cole Harden 4-1- 4,20Aintree- Past World Hurdle winner who will love this ground and ran ok in this years renewl on ground a bit to soft for him. Hoping flat track is not against his proven stamina. Was running ok but then something went wrong down the far side, probably wouldn't have won but something went wrong with him

    ii-Lord Windermere 50-1 -GN- Would have been my four candles rating but I might be a bit biased towards this horse as I backed him and tipped him when he won the gold cup. That is one of the resons I like him for this. He is a Gold Cup winner carrying only 10stone 10lb with a twice grand national winning jockey and 11 year olds have a good recent record in this race. Moreover he will like the ground and has shown with some form in Ireland this year he has got some of his mojo back. 50-1 is superb value for a gold cup winner even if I am a bit biased. Didn't want to go under tunnel onto course and got in a right sweat. after that he ran a good race to finish 7th or 8th as any chance he had had probably gone after his antics.  
     
    I- Briery Queen 25-1 1.45 Aintree- Has run some good races and had good wins in the last two seasons and finished a running on fifth in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. Should love this 3m on a flat course. unusual for her in that she ran a poor race in 17th

    other selections

    1.45 saver on Dadsintrouble 16-1 3rd
    3.00 San Benedeto 4-1 WINNER four wins last 4 races jockey did well to switch at right time or he would have been brought down
    3.40 Knock House 18-1 and Henri Parri Morgan 10-1 both ran disappointingly
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    still 57.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    This weeks

    iiii-Fortunate George 11-2 - 4.20 Haydock-Ran well last time beating Solstice star easily.

    iii- Bob Tucker 14-1 - 2.40 Haydock - Him and Loose chips were well clear last time and only went down by a head to a good yardstick Lost

    ii- Red Baron 25-1 - 2.25 Muss- Course and distance winner four times and likes this time of year more than the all weather which he has run on last twice.picked the wrong outsider Desert Law backed from 25-1 to 12-1

    I- Monetaire -8-1 - 2.05 Hydock- Long times between runs and 3rd last time out looks like he will be primed for this. go
    ing well then ran out of puff for 5th

    other selections

    3.15 Hay -Caius Marcius 12-1 nowhere
    3.50 Couture de sivola 7-1 from second to last in two furlongs, not my day

    Musselbrough
    1.50 Lat Hawill 7-1 2nd didn't get ot when he wanted and winner got first run
    3.00 Sonambulist 9-1 nowhere Fellout of stalls and then tenderly handled in the straight
    3.35 Suegio 16-1 looked all over the place on the ground and too much to do coming from stone last
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    down to 53.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    well here goes with this weeks ratings and needing a winner at least after last week.

    Sorry this is going to be jockey bashing below:-

    iiii- 2.45 Ayr = London Prize 11-1 -done me proud last time and missed two festivals to contest this one. still on a favourable handicap mark. never had him in a good position in the straight and finishedwell to finish 5th!!!!

    iii- 3.20 Ayr -Ifandbutwhynot -7-1 -ok an old favourite but bang back on form with two easy wins the last twice. Also on his old form he is still tremendously well handicapped. nowhere

    ii- 1.55 Newbury -Chemical Charge- 10-1 - a superb value bet in this race. Won easily on his season debut and beat Muntahaa in the process. He is smaller odds and so is Crimean Tarta who only beat my selection by half a length last year. Recent run an advantage for CC as proves he has traine on whereas CT 9-2 might not have done. 2nd and backed in and I think I read form right but why oh why did Murphy change his hands going to win nicely until then and nabbed on line!!!!!

    I - 3.40 Newbury -George William 11-1 -winner last time out and fitness advantage over some of these. finished well for 4th

    other horses

    Ayr
    1.40 Beware the Bear 9-2- never had a chance after bad mistake early at Cheltenham, hopefully back to his best now. 4th
    2.10 Oldgrangewood 12-1 - Others have had hard races at two festivals now and if back to his best after rest he will bely these odds. 3rd
    2.45 Ayr Sceau Royale- little saver and forcast with London Prize down
    3.55 Portrait King 33-1 - Winner of Eider in past and loves marathons , ran really well at Aintree over a too short a trip.
    Henry Parry Morgan 16-1 - Surely he has been so poor this year a coup is on the cards. brilliantly handicapped on best form. both finoished
    Seldom Inn -18-1 -Local horse from trainer who likes to go close in this. pulled up
    Alvarado backed it all year so cant leave it out 22-1 4th

    Newbury
    2.30 Promising 9-1 - Hannons have won this 4 times and hoping she lives up to her name as she still a maiden 3rd
    3.00 Make Time 12-1 - Best speed rating hoping he can go one better than his trainers fourth in the Craven nowhere

       
  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,636
    edited April 2017


    Just to let you know Terry, I do read these and often include a couple in my e/w L15's I do on a Saturday. So, thread is appreciated...thanks.
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: Four Candles Ratings-reintroduced:
    Just to let you know Terry, I do read these and often include a couple in my e/w L15's I do on a Saturday. So, thread is appreciated...thanks.
    Posted by MAXALLY
    Glad you find it useful Alan.
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    down to 49.5 points up
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,382
    edited April 2017
    Long time since we had a winner so time to put it right, I Hope

    iiii - Made of Honour 5-1 -6.00 Donnie- Owners like to have a good filly and she finished second to Benbatl, third in the Craven first time out. That form and experience should put her right for this/ 3rd 9-1 worried out of it close home

    iii - Oh This is Us 3-1 -2.40 Haydock- Great run to finish second in the Lincoln and winner since, still progressive. 2nd Frankie just got first run on him but fair result

    ii - Traffic Fluide 11-4 - 2.25 Sandown- Long time off and then ran in two good class races looks like he needs the up in trip after finishing 3rd to Fox Norton. 2nd -even with the weight difference he still couldn't beat the standing dish in this race Menorah

    I- Hollywood Road 8-1 - 1.50 Sandown- Hoping good run last time is continued. nowhere bumped coming round the corner by the winner but French form was much stronger anyway

    Other selection
    3.35 Sandown - Present Man 12-1 nowhere , probably pulled up
    2.05 Haydock -Early Morning 9-2 -Has won first time out both last two seasons.2nd Crowley had all other horses covered until one dashed from the back.

    2.45 Ripon Gurkha Friend 5-1- 11-2 WINNER at last  and could have had the forecast as picked between winner and two for two
    3.20 ripon Above the rest 16-1 nowhere
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