If we 2.2x raise the flop and fold we throw away 40% of our stack by bluffing with a flopped 2pr. On top of that, when we 2.2x, and he shoves we're only gonna have to call about 35k to win about 140k and we have 2 Aces and 2 Tens to hit so nearly 20% chance of hitting even if we are behind, which we won't be alot of the time. If you don't wanna get it in with 2pr here then don't raise pre. Posted by Lambert180
If we fold flop if he shoves on us we lose 25% of our stack not 40% take a look at the stacks. I said we raise to around 24k.
Obviously Im looking at this from a completely different perspective than some of you guys. Maybe Im wrong, who knows, agree to disagree on this one. I may post the hand changing names on 2+2 and see what they say there about how to play the hand.
In Response to Re: Can i get away from this?? : I think you're missing the point. We raise the flop x2.2 to see where we're at and to get the turn checked to us so we can control the pot. If we call the flop, then we also have to call both turn and river which we will lose more money. Getting it in on this flop is fine if we're 0-15bbs as we will get looked up far more often by draws, weak Ace and possibly KQ but as we're 50bb stacks we're NEVER getting looked up by a worse hand except for QT and possibly AJ so it's -EV. If you want the thread closed just don't bother to read it, I personally think this hand is a very good hand for discussion. Posted by DoubleAAA
Lol suggest raising to see where u are at on 2+2 and see what response you get
There is no guarantee someone who flats flop raise wont lead turn, especially when he has donk led pot on flop
How does raising control the pot?
Why do we have to call down if we call flop? I would be calling down but I don't see why if you want to play scared you would have to
I think you can get it in v worse, if you don't then just flat flop
We raise the flop as a bluff or for value.. I assume you agree it's to strong to bluff, if you are raising for value folding to a 3bet is terrible without really strong reads that he flats wide and raises very narrow, unlikely with these stacks
Hand History #558754097 (22:49 31/08/2012) Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance raivim Small blind 1000.00 1000.00 44923.00 bloodboy Big blind 2000.00 3000.00 15284.00 Your hole cards 10 A joker48 Call 2000.00 5000.00 84057.25 smarr Raise 4000.00 9000.00 100701.50 DoubleAAA Fold raivim Fold bloodboy Fold joker48 Call 2000.00 11000.00 82057.25 Flop A 10 Q joker48 Bet 11000.00 22000.00 71057.25 smarr All-in 100701.50 122701.50 0.00 joker48 All-in 71057.25 193758.75 0.00 smarr Unmatched bet 18644.25 175114.50 18644.25 joker48 Show K J smarr Show 10 A Turn 8 River 5 joker48 Win Straight to the Ace 175114.50 175114.5 Posted by smarr
I had almost identicle situation last week and i did the same as you, in einsight i would do things very different as i had ACE 10 to ACE Q the flop was ACE Q TEN so i pushed and snap called by the bigger 2 pair, ive tried to convince myself it was unavoidable but on reflection i think thats wrong, what makes my situation worse i was on the bubble of the 4k bounty hunter and was in 4th or 5th place at the time with good stack- my opponent unfortunately was 2nd in chips and had around 3k more than me so out i went, i think i just looked at my hands point of view and didnt give my opponants range enough consideration, the up side is i wont be doing that in the future
In Response to Can i get away from this?? : I had almost identicle situation last week and i did the same as you, in einsight i would do things very different as i had ACE 10 to ACE Q the flop was ACE Q TEN so i pushed and snap called by the bigger 2 pair, ive tried to convince myself it was unavoidable but on reflection i think thats wrong, what makes my situation worse i was on the bubble of the 4k bounty hunter and was in 4th or 5th place at the time with good stack- my opponent unfortunately was 2nd in chips and had around 3k more than me so out i went, i think i just looked at my hands point of view and didnt give my opponants range enough consideration, the up side is i wont be doing that in the future Posted by Herbie536
You hit the nail on the head and it's what I was getting at earlier in the thread. We have to consider our opponents range and we also have to factor in how many BBs we have. Seeing upon how both players are deep this is too much of a risky board to be stacking off on.
I could go in depth further and start to see how much our equity is at this stage of the tournament if we were to gain villians chip stack and obviously if we lose we have zero equity.
In Response to Re: Can i get away from this?? : Really? Thanks for clarifying. Some people would call with a gutshot. And as always when analysing a hand i was merely pointing out POSSIBLE hands that MAY CONSIDER calling, not hands that he actually has. And i think the money has to go in, i was just querying the shove. Posted by died
Nobody would concider calling an all in bet with K9 on this flop, no way no how
In Response to Re: Can i get away from this?? : You hit the nail on the head and it's what I was getting at earlier in the thread. We have to consider our opponents range and we also have to factor in how many BBs we have. Seeing upon how both players are deep this is too much of a risky board to be stacking off on. I could go in depth further and start to see how much our equity is at this stage of the tournament if we were to gain villians chip stack and obviously if we lose we have zero equity. Posted by DoubleAAA
People are considering villains range
Raise/folding flop is awful imo, I can't think of any realistic range/villain tendencies it's optimal against without really cast iron reads. Folding to the donk would make more sense to me. Raising flop seems esp weird if you are not putting anymore money in on turn or river
As for calculating our equity, there is not enough info in op to do this. But I doubt Icm would be a big factor unless we are very close to bubble or payout is very flat. But if you have calcs that say different I would be interested to see them.
Well this post has certainly proved an interesting one and there are certainly a few ays to approach it. There's been a lot of good inciteful analysis which the poster will be grateful for, i'm sure. However, let's all try to keep calm under adversity eh, guys. Surely we can disagree with someone without trying to be demeaning. For what its worth and i did read quite a few posts i think a bigger raise is needed pre as i would just call the min raise. This may make him fold this hand. If he continues and bets then i'd call the flop. The turn and a big bet by him presumably would make my mind up for me. KJs, J8s stands out once the Turn comes and his bet size may hint at that. If he's only been playing with strong hands and/or limping into pots(as some players do at HBL) then maybe alarms should be going here. Anyway, there's a lot of good discussion here guys. Don't let disagreement be a 'stake through the heart'...its only another opinion. Cheers
I'm interested in this one now after reading through all the replies.
2 very good players have recommended flatting the flop and shoving the turn which I can't understand, the board is pretty wet and we've flopped very well, why would you flat the flop and allow another card which might complete any number of draws? For me if the mindset is to get it in on the turn, surely better to just get it in on the flop before allowing another card out?
Personally I think I prefer a raise on the flop and reassess on the turn, but very hard to get away from this without losing alot of chips.
Comments
Obviously Im looking at this from a completely different perspective than some of you guys. Maybe Im wrong, who knows, agree to disagree on this one. I may post the hand changing names on 2+2 and see what they say there about how to play the hand.
I could go in depth further and start to see how much our equity is at this stage of the tournament if we were to gain villians chip stack and obviously if we lose we have zero equity.
flat flop, shove turn
don't mind raising flop smallish for oopo to shove all 1 pr + draw hands + worse
bit of a cooler, not hero folding 2 prs
Well this post has certainly proved an interesting one and there are certainly a few ays to approach it. There's been a lot of good inciteful analysis which the poster will be grateful for, i'm sure. However, let's all try to keep calm under adversity eh, guys. Surely we can disagree with someone without trying to be demeaning.
For what its worth and i did read quite a few posts i think a bigger raise is needed pre as i would just call the min raise. This may make him fold this hand. If he continues and bets then i'd call the flop. The turn and a big bet by him presumably would make my mind up for me. KJs, J8s stands out once the Turn comes and his bet size may hint at that.
If he's only been playing with strong hands and/or limping into pots(as some players do at HBL) then maybe alarms should be going here.
Anyway, there's a lot of good discussion here guys. Don't let disagreement be a 'stake through the heart'...its only another opinion. Cheers
I'm interested in this one now after reading through all the replies.
2 very good players have recommended flatting the flop and shoving the turn which I can't understand, the board is pretty wet and we've flopped very well, why would you flat the flop and allow another card which might complete any number of draws? For me if the mindset is to get it in on the turn, surely better to just get it in on the flop before allowing another card out?
Personally I think I prefer a raise on the flop and reassess on the turn, but very hard to get away from this without losing alot of chips.