Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls

MP33

Early odds - Not sure who eveyone is but i think Denise Van Outen, although favourite may be a good price

Perhaps We could get Orford to post and let us know if she,s any good or done much dancing before

I think Nicky Bryne ( Boyzone singer )will be popular with the ladies although they never did much dancing - mainly sitting on stools from what i remember

Any other tips, bets  or advice pls post

108.3%	BackAll	LayAll	95.1%
Market Activity Denise Van Outen	3.85 £12	3.9 £21	4.2 £49	4.6 £17	5 £2	5.4 £110	Loading
Market Activity Louis Smith	4.2 £10	4.3 £15	4.4 £9	4.6 £2	4.7 £3	4.8 £110	Loading
Market Activity Kimberley Walsh	6 £7	6.4 £7	6.6 £26	6.8 £9	7 £41	7.2 £2	Loading
Market Activity Nicky Byrne	7 £20	7.2 £2	7.4 £72	8 £7	8.6 £2	9.6 £2	Loading
Market Activity Victoria Pendleton	9.6 £5	9.8 £15	10 £7	11.5 £7	12.5 £10	13 £10	Loading
Market Activity Dani Harmer	13 £4	14 £9	14.5 £19	15 £4	16 £25	17 £8	Loading
Market Activity Colin Salmon	20 £5	26 £4	27 £9	38 £2	40 £5		Loading
Market Activity Michael Vaughan	27 £5	28 £10	29 £4	38 £3	40 £4	42 £8	Loading
Market Activity Richard Arnold	28 £9	65 £8	70 £5	200 £2			Loading
Market Activity Sid Owen	40 £8	42 £7	44 £2	95 £2			Loading
Market Activity Fern Britton	48 £3	50 £6	55 £2	100 £7			Loading
Market Activity Lisa Riley	80 £5	85 £2	90 £4	150 £2	170 £2	180 £6	Loading
Market Activity Jerry Hall	80 £2	85 £2	90 £2				Loading
Market Activity Johnny Ball	60 £4	70 £2	75 £5	180 £2	190 £2	250 £2

Ps - Theres always someone who the public like to vote for - for comedy value - Anne Widecombe - Russell Grant amongst others as it is at the end of the day it is an entertainment show and they often do a lot better than expected . I,m thinking maybe Lisa Riley (used to be in Emmerdale) . Can,t see her getting lifted up and gliding around a dancefloor

My first thoughts are Denise Van Outen and Nicky Bryne in the final and for a dark horse Victoria Pendleton. looking forward to see her in some of those sexy outfits they wear on the show

GL to all having a bet

joesman1

In Response to Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

Early odds - Not sure who eveyone is but i think Denise Van Outen, although favourite may be a good price Perhaps We could get Orford to post and let us know if she,s any good or done much dancing before I think Nicky Bryne ( Boyzone singer )will be popular with the ladies although they never did much dancing - mainly sitting on stools from what i remember Any other tips, bets  or advice pls post 108.3% Back All Lay All 95.1% Market Activity Denise Van Outen 3.85 £12 3.9 £21 4.2 £49 4.6 £17 5 £2 5.4 £110 Loading Market Activity Louis Smith 4.2 £10 4.3 £15 4.4 £9 4.6 £2 4.7 £3 4.8 £110 Loading Market Activity Kimberley Walsh 6 £7 6.4 £7 6.6 £26 6.8 £9 7 £41 7.2 £2 Loading Market Activity Nicky Byrne 7 £20 7.2 £2 7.4 £72 8 £7 8.6 £2 9.6 £2 Loading Market Activity Victoria Pendleton 9.6 £5 9.8 £15 10 £7 11.5 £7 12.5 £10 13 £10 Loading Market Activity Dani Harmer 13 £4 14 £9 14.5 £19 15 £4 16 £25 17 £8 Loading Market Activity Colin Salmon 20 £5 26 £4 27 £9 38 £2 40 £5   Loading Market Activity Michael Vaughan 27 £5 28 £10 29 £4 38 £3 40 £4 42 £8 Loading Market Activity Richard Arnold 28 £9 65 £8 70 £5 200 £2     Loading Market Activity Sid Owen 40 £8 42 £7 44 £2 95 £2     Loading Market Activity Fern Britton 48 £3 50 £6 55 £2 100 £7     Loading Market Activity Lisa Riley 80 £5 85 £2 90 £4 150 £2 170 £2 180 £6 Loading Market Activity Jerry Hall 80 £2 85 £2 90 £2       Loading Market Activity Johnny Ball 60 £4 70 £2 75 £5 180 £2 190 £2 250 £2 Ps - Theres always someone who the public like to vote for - for comedy value - Anne Widecombe - Russell Grant amongst others as it is at the end of the day it is an entertainment show and they often do a lot better than expected . I,m thinking maybe Lisa Riley (used to be in Emmerdale) . Can,t see her getting lifted up and gliding around a dancefloor My first thoughts are Denise Van Outen and Nicky Bryne in the final and for a dark horse Victoria Pendleton. looking forward to see her in some of those sexy outfits they wear on the show GL to all having a bet
Posted by MP33

As soon as I saw the line up Louis Smith stood out a mile to me. Young, good looking, poss' still in his closet (ideal for all the middle aged women who tend to vote on this show), very fit gymnast who will have no problems with all the moves required. 

rosjim1

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

In Response to Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : As soon as I saw the line up Louis Smith stood out a mile to me. Young, good looking, poss' still in his closet (ideal for all the middle aged women who tend to vote on this show), very fit gymnast who will have no problems with all the moves required. 
Posted by joesman1

Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win

joesman1

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win
Posted by rosjim1

Mr club foot himself. . . What do u know about fleet footedness unless it's how quick can YOU lay down 7's with 13 big blinds!!

joesman1

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : Van outen stared in chicargo in the west end pro dancer for the win
Posted by rosjim1

And I reckon it's about 'likeability' as much as quality of performance in this show. I think Louis Smith will charm the ' old wrinklies' that watch this show. Stick to yer X Factor!! Lol 

1267

Pendleton will almost guranteed be the best dancer after a few weeks, as she is by far the most competetive.  Wheather she gets the votes or not is another question.

Slykllist

Victoria will win this.

If she puts her mind to it and decides she wants to win, no-one will beat her.

BELL_POKER

over the years dancing ability seemingly more important than likeability so Van Outen should be right in the mix

MP33

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

Pendleton will almost guranteed be the best dancer after a few weeks, as she is by far the most competetive.  Wheather she gets the votes or not is another question.
Posted by 1267

I thought this as well. I can,t imagine she,s had much time for dancing in her career but will probably improve more than the others as the show goes on due to her competitive streak. So will probably wait until after first episode to bet on her depending on prices

MP33

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls : And I reckon it's about 'likeability' as much as quality of performance in this show. I think Louis Smith will charm the ' old wrinklies' that watch this show. Stick to yer X Factor!! Lol 
Posted by joesman1

I was going to start a thread on it but i did it about this time last year before boot camp and most of my bets didn,t even make it to the televised stages so will wait until then and put some odds up. I think the "likeability" factor comes into both these shows although ultimately in Strictly its always been the best dancer who goes on to win in the end

SHANXTA

Westlife spent their careers sitting on stools, not sure how this will help him in Strictly. Been off the main scene for a while, not sure how much this will affect his support, to some extent the same can be said about Kimberley.

1st instincts tell me to go with Louis, hugely in demand after the Olympics, will get tons of female fans, and being a gymnast gives you the impression that he will be able to easily adapt to the dance floor.  Obv the Olympic factor also applies to Victoria, but tbh although i think she's get to the last few, i can't see her winning.

Can't see any of the outsiders winning so that leaves DVO and Dani, Dani does have a huge following with the kids and with SCD seemingly having an earlier slot this year maybe that will have an effect, whether she can dance or not is another matter.  That leaves DVO, probably the deserved fav, loads of pro experience and well known and liked.

Despite thinking all of this, I still have absolutely no intention of watching any of it, so probably won't be betting on it either!

I'll throw my prediction in the hat anyway:

1st Louis

2nd DVO

3rd Victoria

If anyone knows anywhere you can do a tricast bet i may well combo those up :-)

 

DOHHHHHHH

Vicky.P is 10/1 on betfair. 

Not clued up on this back to lay thing, but surely at some point she will be in to 5/1 or lower?

Free money? (if only I understood how to do it)

MP33

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

Vicky.P is 10/1 on betfair.  Not clued up on this back to lay thing, but surely at some point she will be in to 5/1 or lower? Free money? (if only I understood how to do it)
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

For example - Put £10 on at 10/1 then wait until she goes in to 5/1

When she,s 5/1 you can then lay (bet on her not to win at about 5.5) - It will show up in green and your profit will get paid str8 into your account - Best doing a few little £2 bets on the horses and then laying them if the price goes in just to get used to it

Cheers for pointing out my mistake in OP Shanxta with Nicky Bryne  ( Boyzone - Westlife ) All sounds the same to me 

vaigret

LAY VAN OUTEN ANYWHERE YOU CAN, she will not win as the public do not like people who are "semi pro" dancers already. She has had so much pre publicity about chicago performance she will not win.

It will be the same as for Gabby Logan who had so much pre publicity that she was a rhthmic gymnast and see where that got her, out first or second.

One of the sports people will win unl;ess they have two left feet

Father V 

MP33

In Response to Re: Strictly Come Dancing - Betting and tips pls:

LAY VAN OUTEN ANYWHERE YOU CAN, she will not win as the public do not like people who are "semi pro" dancers already. She has had so much pre publicity about chicago performance she will not win. It will be the same as for Gabby Logan who had so much pre publicity that she was a rhthmic gymnast and see where that got her, out first or second. One of the sports people will win unl;ess they have two left feet Father V 
Posted by vaigret

Probably not worth it now as even with nearly 3 weeks to go she has slipped to 2nd favourite behind Louis Smith who seems to a firm favourite on this thread as well

Sort By: Fav/Name
3.5	Louis Smith								Louis Smith		9/4	9/4		9/4	9/4	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4		5/2			9/4	9/4	2			271/100			24-27
4.5	Denise van Outen								Denise van Outen		3	7/2		3	10/3	7/2	3	10/3	7/2	3	10/3		11/4	3		11/4	10/3	3			43/10			21-24
6.0	Kimberley Walsh								Kimberley Walsh		4	4		5	9/2	11/4	9/2	4	4	5	4		9/2	9/2		9/2	4	4			47/10			17-20
8.5	Victoria Pendleton								Victoria Pendleton		15/2	15/2		6	7	6	7	7	15/2	7	7		7	7		7	7	7			37/5			13-16
9.0	Nicky Byrne								Nicky Byrne		7	6		7	15/2	13/2	7	7	8	7	7		8	7		7	7	7			37/5			10-13
17.0	Dani Harmer								Dani Harmer		14	12		16	14	12	14	12	14	10	12		14	14		16	14	16			147/10			8-11
26.0	Michael Vaughan								Michael Vaughan		22	20		25	20	16	20	16	16	20	16		16	25		20	20	20			24			2-4
51.0	Sid Owen								Sid Owen		40	50		33	40	50	50	33	33	40	33		50	40		40	40	50			41			5-7

vaigret

Not back her!!!!Lay her at any odds over 4-1 and you will make money

MP33

Haven,t really been following this but just checked the odds and it seems the odds havent changed that much and seems pretty predictable this year

Even at 2/1 Louis Smith looks good value and now is probably the best time to back him as he,ll only get shorter imo

						Sort By: Fav/Name
3.0	Louis Smith								Louis Smith		15/8			2	15/8	7/4		2	2	15/8	2		2			2	37/20			223/100
4.5	Denise van Outen								Denise van Outen		3			7/2	7/2	7/2		11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4		11/4			11/4	3			157/50	31/10
4.5	Kimberley Walsh								Kimberley Walsh		7/2			7/2	7/2	3		7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2		7/2			7/2	7/2			41/10
11.0	Lisa Riley								Lisa Riley		10			10	10	8		10	10	10	10		10			10	10			62/5	56/5
17.0	Victoria Pendleton								Victoria Pendleton		14			14	12	16		14	16	12	14		14			12	14			64/5	56/5
17.0	Sid Owen								Sid Owen		12			14	12	10		12	12	12	12		16			14	12			76/5	73/5
21.0	Dani Harmer								Dani Harmer		20			20	20	20		16	16	16	16		14			16	20			22	21
34.0	Colin Salmon								Colin Salmon		33			33	33	33		25	33	25	25		33			28	33			37	36
41.0	Nicky Byrne								Nicky Byrne		33			25	25	20		25	33	25	25		40			25	33			28	25
101.0	Fern Britton								Fern Britton		100			100	100	100		100	100	80	100		50			66	100			189	183
101.0	Michael Vaughan								Michael Vaughan		100			100	66	66		66	80	80	66		66			66	100			208	183
126.0	Jerry Hall								Jerry Hall		100			125	100	125		125	125	125	125		125			100	100			189	164
151.0	Richard Arnold								Richard Arnold		125			100	100	100		100	125	150	100		125			100	100

vaigret

The winner will be one in the top four of the betting, especially now the dance off is back so the judges have more say.

I said earlier Van Outen wouldnt win but she is looking very good although I still have the feeling she wont win the vieweres vote in the end.

If I was backing anybody it will be Lisa Riley at 10's.

Reason- she was the obvious BBC "joke" pick but although she is on the big side, she can move. Wouldnt surprise me that the great british public vote for her in big numbers to start with because she is not your obvious dancer and then fall in love with her over the series.  

FLASHJONNY

cant see a bloke winning dvo and kimberley walsh way ahead sneaky fancy for dani hamer

MP33

 2 suprises this week. Michael Vaughan after been in bottom 3 nailed it and didn,t expect Ricky Butcher to go this week, but with the best score was Louis Smith and still fav

Still some value in the betting though, although i can,t see past the top 3 in the market

Biggest mover (literally) has to be Lisa Riley who started at 90,s in OP

Sort By: Fav/Name
2.38	Louis Smith								Louis Smith		5/4	5/4		11/8		11/10	5/4	5/4	5/4	5/4	5/4	6/5	5/4	5/4	5/4	5/4				123/100			26-29
4.33	Denise van Outen								Denise van Outen		10/3	3		10/3		10/3	11/4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	10/3	3				323/100			21-24
5.0	Kimberley Walsh								Kimberley Walsh		4	4		4		7/2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4				399/100	369/100		17-20
13.0	Lisa Riley								Lisa Riley		9	12		8		10	7	8	8	8	8	7	8	8	8	8				62/5			11-14
17.0	Victoria Pendleton								Victoria Pendleton		14	14		12		16	12	14	11	12	14	12	12	12	12	14				69/5			11-14
29.0	Dani Harmer								Dani Harmer		22	25		25		22	20	20	20	25	20	20	20	25	28	16				20	17		6-8
41.0	Nicky Byrne								Nicky Byrne		33	33		33		22	28	33	33	33	33	33	40	33	40	28				35	34		3-5
67.0	Colin Salmon								Colin Salmon		50	40		66		66	33	50	45	50	50	33	66	40	66	33				56	52		1-3
76.0	Michael Vaughan								Michael Vaughan		40	66		66		33	40	50	75	66	50	50	66	40	66	50				56	46		3-5
151.0	Richard Arnold								Richard Arnold		150	150		125		150	150	100	100	100	100	100	125	40	100	100				199	193		0-0.5
201.0	Fern Britton								Fern Britton		150	150		125		200	100	100	100	100	100	100	125	40	100	100				170	135		0.1-1

vaigret

Just got on Richard to be elimanted fourth at 9-4 after he had danced that awful Foxtrot for 17 points, just hope he doesnt improve in dance off.

Couldnt resist those odds !!!!!