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DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?
Padzz77
Member Posts: 143
I am in small blind. Blinds are 150/300.
UTG has 4760 and folds.
Button has 2560 and goes all in.
I have 2890 left after posting the blind, and have Aces and decide to call.
Big Blind has 1040 left and obviously folds.
I didnt want to do it, but decided that folding would be a mistake in case the Big Blind did wake up with a decent hand and was able to double up
Should this be a fold?
Comments
The thing in question is, someone is sat on the table with 3xBB and he has 9xBB, so if fold here, do we cash more times than if he call. i.e. if we call, we lose about 20% of the time and are left with 1xBB (possibly we could still cash from there though), so do we really cash 80%+ of the time when we fold, I don't think so.
Personally I think in this spot is an easy call (I might be wrong) but I can understand why you're questioning it.
I would probably need to win 2 all-ins, possibly against two opponents, just to overtake the current short stack. I would definitely need to win at least one.
it is an interesting situation,isn't it?
if u fold and bb has a hand,and that's 'if' and calles and also 'if' he doubles up it leaves him on 2080 and button therefore loses 1040 from his stack,leaving him with 1520 chips.you obviously will still have your 2890 left.
you are still 'in the game' and in good position to still cash.
yes,you have AA and a good favourite to win here.
do you need to play...no.
should you play? that is the question.
so you decide to play;with AA v random, we win what 70-80% of the time.(2 or 3 times out of 10 we lose)
so you decide not to play;bb calls maybe 1 in 3 & wins 1 in 2 times.
so 2 out or 3 he folds, so 66% of the time is good for you here
1 out of 3 he calls, so 33%, he wins 1 in 2 times here so 17%. so add the losing 17% here to the other 66% so about 80% of the time is good for you.
so i guess there isn't an awful lot in it,imo.
it could be simply 'one of those how am i feeling on the day' scenarios,possibly.
i personally don't like calling 'all-ins' as you are only giving yourself 1 chance of winning.
and only do so,if i need to,or have a read on my opponent.
therefore here as i don't need to ...i fold.
i'm sure many players would look at that as a mistake though,like yourself.
obviously,i don't know the exact maths,and i'm sure there could be players out there that would know.
and again,this is only,my opinion.
did you win the hand & cash?
dev
Obviously that increases the chances of this being the correct call.
However my initial instincts upon seeing the hand were that I would fold. Whatever happens in this hand we will not be the short stack. If the short stack calls and wins here, both he and the shover will have fewer chips than us. They'll have to win all-in before we do or make many more successful blind steals than us. It feels as though that will see us make the money more often than 80% of the time, though perhaps not as often as 90%...
We can assume that the chip leader will be sitting out most of the time, so that should probably make it more of a call. Hmmm... It's a tough spot and I imagine the correct answer is going to be only marginally better than the 'incorrect' answer. I'd fold.
(* *)
^
dev
This is a problem that i've enjoyed having a look at from a mathematical point of view so Ty for putting it in clinic. Its very interesting. It's really made me understand something i was
Actually the original q asked had incrrect information on as to the chip stacks. Consequently, the correct solution could not be found.
This is a problem based around ICM which stems from Game Theory and involves a lot of mathematics but still involves AA's equity versus your opponents estimated range for pushing with a stack of 8.5 bb's. In this case the opponent has 8.5 BB's so may push with an estimate of 25% of hands imo. AA has an equity of 85.5% against this set of hands(note tht this is v top 25%of hands but a range incl sc'c etc)
Let us round this down to 80%.
Thank god there are programs to do the icm calculations.
Running them the the result is very close and reveals a CALL giving $0.04 more icm equity
Your beakeven equity against the villains range is 79.34%.
Now this is a mathematical solution making assumptions about the villains range of hands to push with. The icm calculations are set in stone and accurate but the choice is yours. (you can still lose but the solution is saying you were correct to call, that's all)
There are situations using icm when it is correct to fold AA pre...actually not even bother to look at your cards. The type of tournament you are in affects the icm whether it be cash, super satellite, 50:30:20 payout etc.
Its too difficult to do these calcs during a T so the idea is to get a feel for the solutions by analyzing afterwards whether a call or push made was correct or not. Im just a year into it but its sure interesting to consider. However it takes no account of the player at all only the chip stacks.
So the solution is CALL but as Greghogg said fark the icm and call anyway!!!! Same ending>>>cheers
I had a look at that problem for you but for 8.5 BB's i'm making an estimate of what villain will shove with. If i 29% of hds in(not top but a range including suited connectors ) then KK has 75% equity against that range.
By running the icm calculations the solution is....
....best decision...FOLD as there is $0,29 more icm equit.
hero's breakdown needed to be 79.34%
Hope this is of some use but remember an est is being used of villains pushing range. I've made a judgement based on the fact that he had 8.5 BB's left.