DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?

Padzz77

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?:

Hi P This is a problem that i've enjoyed having a look at from a mathematical point of view so Ty for putting it in clinic. Its very interesting. It's really made me understand something i was Actually the original q asked had incrrect information on as to the chip stacks. Consequently, the correct solution could not be found. This is a problem based around ICM which stems from Game Theory and involves a lot of mathematics but still involves AA's equity versus your opponents estimated range for pushing with a stack of 8.5 bb's. In this case the opponent has 8.5 BB's so may push with an estimate of 25% of hands imo. AA has an equity of 85.5% against this set of hands(note tht this is v top 25%of hands but a range incl sc'c etc) Let us round this down to 80%. Thank god there are programs to do the icm calculations. Running them the the result is very close and reveals a CALL giving $0.04 more icm equity Your beakeven equity against the villains range is 79.34%.  Now this is a mathematical solution making assumptions about the villains range of hands to push with. The icm calculations are set in stone and accurate but the choice is yours. (you can still lose but the solution is saying you were correct to call, that's all) There are situations using icm when it is correct to fold AA pre...actually not even bother to look at your cards. The type of tournament you are in affects the icm whether it be cash, super satellite, 50:30:20 payout etc.  Its too difficult to do these calcs during a T so the idea is to get a feel for the solutions by analyzing afterwards whether a call or push made was correct or not. Im just a year into it but its sure interesting to consider. However it takes no account of the player at all only the chip stacks. So the solution is CALL but as Greghogg said fark the icm and call anyway!!!! Same ending />>>cheers
Posted by profman15

Thanks for the reply.  I appreciate the effort.  Sorry for the earlier error.  As mentioned above, the large stack was 5060.

FWIW, I thought shover's range was 99+, and AQ+.  Although the short stack was playing very tight, I didnt think the shover would be taking any risks whatsoever bearing in mind that sooner or later the shorty was gonna be in a race against the big stack.

I posted above that ICM calcs (if I did them correctly) seemed to show that I would stay above 80% if I folded and either (i) there was no race and so play continued or (ii) there was a race which the shorty won and so play continued.

I wondered whether that meant that I should have folded, because worst case scenario ICM gave me 80% going into next hand (if any), but there was also a finite possibility of shorty calling and losing.

I must admit that I dont really understand how to apply the ICM model (even at my leisure, let alone during the game!!).  

I think I would have been more tilted if I had folded AA, and then been forced into a race later on with worse, than by seeing my Aces cracked.  But I suppose that's the wrong way of looking at it.  

devonfish5

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?:

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold? : Hi Dev I had a look at that problem for you but for 8.5 BB's i'm making an estimate of what villain will shove with. If i 29% of hds in(not top but a range including suited connectors ) then KK has 75% equity against that range. By running the icm calculations the solution is.... ....best decision...FOLD as there is $0,29 more icm equit. hero's breakdown needed to be 79.34% Hope this is of some use but remember an est is being used of villains pushing range. I've made a judgement based on the fact that he had 8.5 BB's left.
Posted by profman15

ty steve


dev

profman15

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?:

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold? : Thanks for the reply.  I appreciate the effort.  Sorry for the earlier error.  As mentioned above, the large stack was 5060. FWIW, I thought shover's range was 99+, and AQ+.  Although the short stack was playing very tight, I didnt think the shover would be taking any risks whatsoever bearing in mind that sooner or later the shorty was gonna be in a race against the big stack. I posted above that ICM calcs (if I did them correctly) seemed to show that I would stay above 80% if I folded and either (i) there was no race and so play continued or (ii) there was a race which the shorty won and so play continued. I wondered whether that meant that I should have folded, because worst case scenario ICM gave me 80% going into next hand (if any), but there was also a finite possibility of shorty calling and losing. I must admit that I dont really understand how to apply the ICM model (even at my leisure, let alone during the game!!).   I think I would have been more tilted if I had folded AA, and then been forced into a race later on with worse, than by seeing my Aces cracked.  But I suppose that's the wrong way of looking at it.  
Posted by Padzz77

Hi P

It was very close TBH. That range of shove is very narrow considering he has 8.5 blinds. The shorter he gets the wider he should push with. AA would still have 85% equity versus a 4% range. It was a very tight decision so either play wouldn't have been wrong imo. TY for posting as it made me push mysel into studying this side more(i used to be a maths teacher so it appeals). Did you notice that if it had been KK then it was a FOLD? Close eh?

Padzz77

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold?:

In Response to Re: DYM Bubble with AA: Call or Fold? : Hi P It was very close TBH. That range of shove is very narrow considering he has 8.5 blinds. The shorter he gets the wider he should push with. AA would still have 85% equity versus a 4% range. It was a very tight decision so either play wouldn't have been wrong imo. TY for posting as it made me push mysel into studying this side more(i used to be a maths teacher so it appeals). Did you notice that if it had been KK then it was a FOLD? Close eh?
Posted by profman15

Thanks.  I wouldnt have hesitated to fold KK.  Or anything at all apart from AA.

The reason that I put shover on a narrow range was not his own stack size; it was coz of shorty's stack size.  Shorty was definitely going to have to race either this hand (his BB), or the next hand (his SB, with 150 less), or one of the next 3 hands after that.

Shorty had shown he was not going to call light. But my assumption was that there was no point in shover taking an unnecessary risk.  

anti_laugh

AA is a call KK fold.

profman15

Hey Padzz

Funny thing las night playing DYM and i had a big stack in bb with one small stack. I was second biggest. He goes all in and i have AA. He has about 4 BB's. Anyway he ai's and my mind went straight back to this thread.
MMMM it thought?
Well, i knew it was close and i'd still be 2nd if i'd lost but i least i considered folding...

Anyway i call . he has AJ suited and yes he got his flush!!!! Just for the reord he had 13% equity in the pot. I actualy laughed as the flush came but that's poker.
I can report that i still won in that dym but who'd have thought a year ago i'd have been considering folding aces eh.
PS if i'd been up against other big stack then it was a fold all day long. Stll a good laugh though.....