Advice on a hand in last nights high roller

thomas87

Hey guys, just want your thoughts on this hand please was i right to go all in? Should i have raised pre?

Stack sizes: Mine=10k

  agjk=5.8k

  omc=4.5k

Thanks

Jamie

Hand History #581599926 (22:22 01/11/2012)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancethomas87Small blind 150.00150.0010156.50agjkBig blind 300.00450.005863.75 Your hole cards10A   KKripplerFold    0mcCall 300.00750.004263.75pupsterFold    EazyDealerCall 300.001050.0035152.50thomas87Call 150.001200.0010006.50agjkCheck    Flop  973   thomas87Check    agjkBet 1200.002400.004663.750mcAll-in 4263.756663.750.00EazyDealerFold    thomas87All-in 10006.5016670.250.00agjkAll-in 4663.7521334.000.00thomas87Unmatched bet 4142.7517191.254142.75thomas87Show10A   agjkShow97   0mcShow9Q   Turn  6   River  4   agjkWinTwo Pairs, 9s and 7s17191.25 17191.25

percival09

if eazydealer has around 3k I just shove pre

as played it's fine

thomas87

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

if eazydealer has around 3k I just shove pre as played it's fine
Posted by percival09

Ok thanks, eazydealer has 35k

percival09

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller : Ok thanks, eazydealer has 35k
Posted by thomas87[/QUOTE

oh lol. 

that changes things. I still like a raise pre - depends on omc's tendencies, i.e. does he l/c a lot or l/r etc....

patwalshh

I'd raise pre, with the intention of getting it in once the flop comes.

Although as played, I'd fold the flop. A lot of the value we have from flush draws comes from our opponents fold equity. When there's a bet and a shove, there is no fold equity for our opponents so I'd just let it go.  

Hope this helps

patwalshh

thomas87

The only one really 3 betting and showing any aggression was eazydealer but he also had phases of limping in. I thought if i raised i would of got 4 callers anyway so decided to try and see a cheap flop. 

thomas87

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

I'd raise pre, with the intention of getting it in once the flop comes. Although as played, I'd fold the flop. A lot of the value we have from flush draws comes from our opponents fold equity. When there's a bet and a shove, there is no fold equity for our opponents so I'd just let it go.   Hope this helps patwalshh
Posted by patwalshh

Thanks for your reply Pat, but i thought the bet and shove is a good thing because im getting max value for my flush draw???? or am i way off the mark?

Lambert180

You can't be going for max value until you have a made hand that actually has value.

If you have a FD for instance, that's 36% you will make it by the river, so what you want is to know that sometimes when you shove they will fold. If you just win 36% of the time and they NEVER fold then you're losing 64% of the time, twice as often as you win (nearly). So yyou wanna know that they will fold say 1in3 times 33% for as an example (it doesn't have to be 1in3) so it's something like...

33% of the time you win X amount when they fold

So they call 67% of the time... and of that 67%,

36% of the time, you win  17191.25

and the other 64% (of the 67%) you lose X amount


I was gonna work out the actual figures but you've got one all-in already so literally zero FE from him so I dunno how lol but the point is, you aint gonna win a single hand without showdown cos he can't fold now, so you HAVE to win at showdown, and if you think you need the flush to win, then you'll only win 36% of the time.

Sigh, I wish I hadn't started this reply cos it sounds like rubbish now, but I've written it now so I'm not just deleting it lol.

tl;dr

patwalshh

You have 30% vs a range of 2pair and less vs a set. Given that you've only put 300 into the pot, I'd just fold and wait for a better spot. Calling is far from bad considering the payout structure of the tournament though.

thomas87

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

You can't be going for max value until you have a made hand that actually has value. If you have a FD for instance, that's 36% you will make it by the river, so what you want is to know that sometimes when you shove they will fold. If you just win 36% of the time and they NEVER fold then you're losing 64% of the time, twice as often as you win (nearly). So yyou wanna know that they will fold say 1in3 times 33% for as an example (it doesn't have to be 1in3) so it's something like... 33% of the time you win X amount when they fold So they call 67% of the time... and of that 67%, 36% of the time, you win  17191.25 and the other 64% (of the 67%) you lose X amount I was gonna work out the actual figures but you've got one all-in already so literally zero FE from him so I dunno how lol but the point is, you aint gonna win a single hand without showdown cos he can't fold now, so you HAVE to win at showdown, and if you think you need the flush to win, then you'll only win 36% of the time. Sigh, I wish I hadn't started this reply cos it sounds like rubbish now, but I've written it now so I'm not just deleting it lol. tl;dr
Posted by Lambert180

Cheers for the reply Lambert, ive never really learnt about odds and stuff like that in poker as i just wanted to play lol, but i really want to have a go at this poker thing so i think i'll look a little deeper into it. 

Can you recommend any books or website that would help?

Cheers

Jamie

thomas87

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

You have 30% vs a range of 2pair and less vs a set. Given that you've only put 300 into the pot, I'd just fold and wait for a better spot. Calling is far from bad considering the payout structure of the tournament though.
Posted by patwalshh

I think i need to learn more about poker lol am i right in saying fold equity is when your opponent has enough chips behind them to fold? Im such a fish

Lambert180

Lol it's alright, we all start out not knowing stuff like that. Yeah FE is the chance of them folding. For instance, if they have a set and you shove with a flush draw, you'll make the flush 36% of the time, but sometimes your flush will not be enough because they made a full house and you're never gonna make someone fold a set on the flop, so you'll win the hand a little less than 36% of the time which obviously isn't good.

But if we somehow we KNOW for a fact they definitely have 1 pair, when you get called you win 36% of the time which still isn't enough, but if they 30% of the time, they are scared of you having 2pr, a set, a bigger pair, the same pair with a better kicker etc so fold 30% of the time, then suddenly you're now winning this hand 66% of the time.

If you like tournaments I'd suggest "Winner Poker Tournaments: One Hand at a Time", either google it or just type it into Amazon. There's 2 volumes, first one covers everything up to when the bubble bursts, and the 2nd one covers once you're in the money, down to the FT and HU play.

beaneh

given that you limped (which I really like) you can now just fold with nothing invested and only a draw. 

if it goes bet call rather than bet jam, and the caller has chips behind you could then check jam and hope to offset the fact you should be behind when called with some fold equity.

thomas87

Right i think ive got it lol you explained it very well. My next question is i know the 36% is the change of me hitting one of my cards to make the flush and that is 9 cards but how do you turn 9 outs to 36%?

I will look for those books will only need vol 1 for the minute lol

thomas87

In Response to ya lovely forum software, only 3 attempts thanks:

given that you limped (which I really like) you can now just fold with nothing invested and only a draw.  if it goes bet call rather than bet jam, and the caller has chips behind you could then check jam and hope to offset the fact you should be behind when called with some fold equity.
Posted by beaneh

Thanks for your imput beaneh but i dont really understand what you said (in bold) do you mean if the caller was deeper then i would have a better chance of him folding which in turn means a better chance of me winning the hand?

Sorry if i seem thick

beaneh

In Response to Re: Advice on a hand in last nights high roller:

Right i think ive got it lol you explained it very well. My next question is i know the 36% is the change of me hitting one of my cards to make the flush and that is 9 cards but how do you turn 9 outs to 36%? I will look for those books will only need vol 1 for the minute lol
Posted by thomas87

roughly

multiply your outs on the turn by 2 and on the flop by 4 to get your rough chance of hitting.

bearing in mind that often times when you hit your opponent can still have his own outs to resuck.

So for ATss on 9s8s2c vs Kh9h

you could just use pokerstove (a free bit of software) to run this and give you an exact answer. the answer given would look like- 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 990  games     0.000 secs   198,000  games/sec

Board: 9s 8s 2c

Dead:  

        equity win           tie             pots won   pots tied

Hand 0: 55.556%   55.56% 00.00%           550        0.00   { AsTs }

Hand 1: 44.444%   44.44% 00.00%           440        0.00   { Kh9h }

This is saying that 55.5% of the time the overs and fd wins. There can be no ties because no flush can come on board, or no chops etc. 

Lambert180

Well quick maths to get your chance of making a particular hand is... the number of outs you have multiplied by 2 and then multiplied by the number of cards left to come.

So with a flush draw you have 9 outs so...

9 x 2 = 18%

So if you got 1 card to come (you're on the turn), you have 18% ish

If you got 2 cards to come (you're on the flop), you multiply that number by 2 so have 36% of making it.

So a few quick ones...

Open ended straight draw = 8 outs = 32% on the flop, 16% on the turn

You've got 2 overcards like AK on 369 flop and know you have to make a pair to win = 6 outs = 24% on the flop, 12% on the turn.

The only thing I would point out to remember, is that on the flop, you have a 36% of making a flush by the river, but if you plan on calling the flop, and then folding if you miss, then you're not really getting the chance to experience that 36% chance.

So basically, if you're only gonna see 1 more card, multiply your outs by 2... if you're gonna see 2 more cards (turn and river) then multiply your outs by 4.

beaneh

In Response to Re: ya lovely forum software, only 3 attempts thanks:

In Response to ya lovely forum software, only 3 attempts thanks : Thanks for your imput beaneh but i dont really understand what you said (in bold) do you mean if the caller was deeper then i would have a better chance of him folding which in turn means a better chance of me winning the hand? Sorry if i seem thick
Posted by thomas87

what I mean is

with <50% we don't want to call it off as well be losing a small amount of our chips each time.

if for example we were shoving and the opponent had to call it off and therefore we had the chance to make him fold. 

we can then consider having less than 50% chance to win WHEN CALLED but that there is a chunk of the time that he folds and win all of the pot every time, if he folds enough then we can offset the small loss when called and turn this shove into a profitable play. 

you get me?

Lambert180

Sigh Beaneh A) beat me and summed it up so much quicker lol.

Yeah, you're right, what he means by offset the fact you're behind when called is...

When you're called, you a going to be an underdog to win, probably only 36% of winning, but if the player was deeper then he could possibly fold.

As a basic example, say it was just pre-flop in a tournament, if you have 10xBB and were on the SB, you could shove 72o into the Big Blind if he had 15-20xBB fairly safe that he's not gonna call you very often. Now if the spot was exactly the same except the BB had 3xBB, it would be very bad to shove 72o because they are gonna (rightly so) think "well I've already got 1xBB in the middle and I'm too short to fold" so you're never gonna make him fold, and you're virtually never gonna have the best hand.

Whereas in the first scenario, you shove 72 into him, even if he calls with AKo, you'll winabout 40% of the time anyway, and abuot 80% of the time, he won't have a hand good enough to call anyway.

thomas87

Right ive read over both your post a number of times and think ive got it lol.

Here it goes:

On a flush draw you have 9 outs x 4 on flop = 36% - not enough to win long term but if opponenet was deep then theres a chance of them folding which turns your 36% into 50%> and this can offset the times they do call and you loose.

Is that it lol

beaneh

sorry I wrote a really long post but that awful forum software keeps deleting it.

I really cant bring myself to write that much again or redo all the maths examples.

suffice it to say. 

you need to combine FOLD equity with your equity in the pot. 

your equity in the pot is your chance of winning by the river. 

and your fold equity is the proportion of your opponents hands that he continues with vs those that he folds.

essentially the more hands he folds the less equity you need in the pot when you are called because he calls less. remembering that every time someone folds you win 100% of the pot, when you get it all in you only expect to return some % of the pot relative to your hand strength.