This is a cracking thread Maybe just get rid of the clinic altogether? The forum has very few posts and we don’t really need all the subsections I don’t think that many people go there and far more see these kind of threads in poker chat
It’s really interesting to see the views of some really good players (and Misty4me) Reading opposing views with their own logics is fascinating
This is a cracking thread Maybe just get rid of the clinic altogether? The forum has very few posts and we don’t really need all the subsections I don’t think that many people go there and far more see these kind of threads in poker chat
It’s really interesting to see the views of some really good players (and Misty4me) Reading opposing views with their own logics is fascinating
2) Close the "Poker Clinic"? Possibly. Of late, when I see stuff in Poker Clinic or Tournament Strategy, I've been moving them across to Poker Chat for the reasons you mention.
As it happens, I always view the Forum Pots via the "DISCUSSIONS" Tab, as that effectively removes all sub-sections & Boards & just lumps everything together for viewing & posting purposes. So much easier.
I spoke with froozle a bit last year, he lost interest in poker and a few other things happened which made him stop playing. They have similar styles of play for sure haha but I’d confidently say it’s not him. One for joey Ingram to look at
I think its a fairly easy call at the stack sizes, your opponent will be aware you are likely only calling with the Q or usually a 7 and that represents less than 50% of your range by the river given the potential flush/straight draws and smaller pairs which you will likely have played the same way up til this point that means it will be a +EV spot for him to bluff. also his bet sizing on the flop doesn't suggest hes trying to protect his hand as you'd expect with aq/qk on a draw heavy board. the turn is a great card for him to try and push someone off their draw or low pair which would explain the far larger sizing, and id expect a river shove well over 80% of the time after this river card given the odds hes getting and the range you have... its pretty tough to narrow down his range on this board given how aggressive he plays so its likely much better to consider the range hes putting you on and then work back from there
i agree but is it worth your whole torni on a punt and call? or wait for a better spot?
I think its a fairly easy call at the stack sizes, your opponent will be aware you are likely only calling with the Q or usually a 7 and that represents less than 50% of your range by the river given the potential flush/straight draws and smaller pairs which you will likely have played the same way up til this point that means it will be a +EV spot for him to bluff. also his bet sizing on the flop doesn't suggest hes trying to protect his hand as you'd expect with aq/qk on a draw heavy board. the turn is a great card for him to try and push someone off their draw or low pair which would explain the far larger sizing, and id expect a river shove well over 80% of the time after this river card given the odds hes getting and the range you have... its pretty tough to narrow down his range on this board given how aggressive he plays so its likely much better to consider the range hes putting you on and then work back from there
i agree but is it worth your whole torni on a punt and call? or wait for a better spot?
personally i would say it is worth it in this situation, my best estimate would have you ahead roughly 50-60% of the time so its definitely a value call, if you had zero reads on this opponent then it maybe drops to you being ahead around 30-40% of the time which you can then make an argument for folding (and if you had reads that he was a nitty player then it would be an easy fold). its certainly a good hand for discussion given the player involved and how the board runs out.
This is a cracking thread Maybe just get rid of the clinic altogether? The forum has very few posts and we don’t really need all the subsections I don’t think that many people go there and far more see these kind of threads in poker chat
It’s really interesting to see the views of some really good players (and Misty4me) Reading opposing views with their own logics is fascinating
As it happens, I always view the Forum Pots via the "DISCUSSIONS" Tab, as that effectively removes all sub-sections & Boards & just lumps everything together for viewing & posting purposes. So much easier.
I discovered the discussions button about a month ago. It's a game changer.
I think @jordz16 makes a good point about looking into bet sizing to gain information. You certainly can't rule out him having a Queen on the flop but if you know the population size up when they're strong/ protecting on these boards and bet smaller when they're bluffing you can bear that in mind as the hand plays out and use that knowledge in a close situation. See if uses different flop sizes on similar board textures and if so what hand's he shows. In a game of incomplete information we need to use what we can.
I think how the hand should play out and how it does play out are two different things. His small sizing implies he's betting a lot of his range. He's betting 400 to win 1300 so if we fold 25% of the time straight away he can cbet any two cards profitably. On the turn our range should still have a ton of hands in vs the small flop size, including pairs, pocket pairs, ace highs and some floats. Some of our best hands should raise flop v.s his bet size, such as 44, sometimes 77 and AQ, maybe KQ in theory as well as quite a lot of bluffs and some fd's. That means on the turn when we play call our range is comprised of a lot of marginal holdings and doesn't have some of our strongest hands in so when we face the 75% pot bet on the turn we need to continue with some marginal holdings to not be exploited by him being able to double barrel any two cards. A lot of hands are really dicey as continues. Villain double barrelling is quite effective and puts us in a tough spot with quite a lot of our holdings.
I think it's likely that a reg, likely grinding 6-12 tables is going to see the turn here, think that you have a lot of 2 pair/ trips in your range and see it as being bad card to bluff on and just check/fold their 0 equity. I also think most players aren't going to raise flop often enough vs the small cbet or continue enough as a call, so will have more Qx in their range on the turn than they should and less floats/ ace highs.
It is useful to know how we are supposed to play spots but to really maximise our edge we need to adjust to our opponent's. On sky if you try and call down at equilibrium you will get murdered because the population of mtt regs are so value heavy when they play bet bet bet. From a theoretical point of view your probably meant to always call down here, but in practice it might be a fold. Although as others have said, this player is one of the more capable regulars on the site so maybe he does find bluffs. I still think its going to be an underbluffed spot and folding can't be a disaster.
Comments
Maybe just get rid of the clinic altogether? The forum has very few posts and we don’t really need all the subsections
I don’t think that many people go there and far more see these kind of threads in poker chat
It’s really interesting to see the views of some really good players (and Misty4me)
Reading opposing views with their own logics is fascinating
1) Yes, it's exactly the sort of thread we need.
2) Close the "Poker Clinic"? Possibly. Of late, when I see stuff in Poker Clinic or Tournament Strategy, I've been moving them across to Poker Chat for the reasons you mention.
As it happens, I always view the Forum Pots via the "DISCUSSIONS" Tab, as that effectively removes all sub-sections & Boards & just lumps everything together for viewing & posting purposes. So much easier.
personally i would say it is worth it in this situation, my best estimate would have you ahead roughly 50-60% of the time so its definitely a value call, if you had zero reads on this opponent then it maybe drops to you being ahead around 30-40% of the time which you can then make an argument for folding (and if you had reads that he was a nitty player then it would be an easy fold). its certainly a good hand for discussion given the player involved and how the board runs out.
I think how the hand should play out and how it does play out are two different things. His small sizing implies he's betting a lot of his range. He's betting 400 to win 1300 so if we fold 25% of the time straight away he can cbet any two cards profitably. On the turn our range should still have a ton of hands in vs the small flop size, including pairs, pocket pairs, ace highs and some floats. Some of our best hands should raise flop v.s his bet size, such as 44, sometimes 77 and AQ, maybe KQ in theory as well as quite a lot of bluffs and some fd's. That means on the turn when we play call our range is comprised of a lot of marginal holdings and doesn't have some of our strongest hands in so when we face the 75% pot bet on the turn we need to continue with some marginal holdings to not be exploited by him being able to double barrel any two cards. A lot of hands are really dicey as continues. Villain double barrelling is quite effective and puts us in a tough spot with quite a lot of our holdings.
I think it's likely that a reg, likely grinding 6-12 tables is going to see the turn here, think that you have a lot of 2 pair/ trips in your range and see it as being bad card to bluff on and just check/fold their 0 equity. I also think most players aren't going to raise flop often enough vs the small cbet or continue enough as a call, so will have more Qx in their range on the turn than they should and less floats/ ace highs.
It is useful to know how we are supposed to play spots but to really maximise our edge we need to adjust to our opponent's. On sky if you try and call down at equilibrium you will get murdered because the population of mtt regs are so value heavy when they play bet bet bet. From a theoretical point of view your probably meant to always call down here, but in practice it might be a fold. Although as others have said, this player is one of the more capable regulars on the site so maybe he does find bluffs. I still think its going to be an underbluffed spot and folding can't be a disaster.