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BEAT THE BOOKIES - NFL FULL DAY OF MATCHES SUNDAY

rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
edited November 2021 in Sports & Betting Chat
Like said yesterday few people had 7 yesterday now i have 1 more so 8 im just will pick the teams i think will and my all means do your pick for fun

1 Atlanta vs Jacksonville- atlanta =£75 k = won
2 dolphins vs panthers - dolphins = £110 k = won
3 jets vs texans - texans = £73 k = lost
4 eagles vs giants - giants = £155 k =won
6 steelers vs bengals - steelers £155 k = lost
7 tampa bay vs colts - tampa bay £53 = won
8 titans vs patriots - patriot £33 k =won
9 chargers vs broncos - chargers £67 k = lost
10 rams vs packers - rams - £90 k = lost
11 vikings vs 49ers - vikings - £145 K =lost
12 browns vs ravens - browns £155 k
12+1 seattle vs washington - washington = 91 k

good luck and get involved
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,168
    I dont know if the LA Rams will enjoy the freezing cold weather at Green Bay :s

    .....and Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback by a mile this Season, GREEN BAY for me
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    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    so bragging rights are up for grabs hahahahahaha ;)
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    MISTY4ME said:

    I dont know if the LA Rams will enjoy the freezing cold weather at Green Bay :s

    .....and Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback by a mile this Season, GREEN BAY for me

    Either QB to get over 500+ passing yards 125/1

    Matthew Stafford 300+ Passing Yards, Van Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards & Darrell Henderson Jr 100+ Rushing Yards @ 33/1

    intresting
  • Options
    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,168
    rbh112 said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    I dont know if the LA Rams will enjoy the freezing cold weather at Green Bay :s

    .....and Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback by a mile this Season, GREEN BAY for me

    Either QB to get over 500+ passing yards 125/1

    Matthew Stafford 300+ Passing Yards, Van Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards & Darrell Henderson Jr 100+ Rushing Yards @ 33/1

    intresting

    I can't ever remember a QB getting 500+ passing yards ......... hence the price.

    I'm sure someone will have, but defo not in a game with really good defences
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,168
    rbh112 said:

    so bragging rights are up for grabs hahahahahaha ;)

    GAME ON

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    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    MISTY4ME said:


    I can't ever remember a QB getting 500+ passing yards ......... hence the price.

    I'm sure someone will have, but defo not in a game with really good defences

    The NFL record for passing yards in a game is 554, by Norm Van Brocklin for the Rams in the 1950s.

    There's been a decent amount of 500+ yard games in NFL history. Brady threw for over 500 yards in Super Bowl 52. But yeah, if either QB throws for 500+ yards in a game with either of those defenses, I'll be amazed.
  • Options
    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited November 2021
    EvilPingu said:

    The NFL record for passing yards in a game is 554, by Norm Van Brocklin for the Rams in the 1950s.

    There's been a decent amount of 500+ yard games in NFL history. Brady threw for over 500 yards in Super Bowl 52. But yeah, if either QB throws for 500+ yards in a game with either of those defenses, I'll be amazed.

    To provide more stats here, because they're weird and interesting:

    - There have been 25 games where a QB has thrown for 500+ yards in a game.

    - 17 of these games have taken place since 2006, where the rules are obviously more favourable to offenses than they once were. Unsurprisingly, most of these games are also shootouts.

    - 3 of these games have gone into overtime. This includes Derek Carr's 513 yards passing for Oakland vs Tampa Bay in 2016. I remember watching that game as a Raiders fan - we got something like 23 or 24 penalties against us and still won, which is an NFL record for most penalties against a team that still won the game.

    - The QB with the most games with 500+ passing yards is Ben Roethlisberger, with 4. This includes two games where he threw 66 and 68 pass attempts, respectively. The NFL record for pass attempts by a single QB in a game is 70, for comparison.

    - Tom Brady and Drew Brees have two games with 500+ passing yards. Besides them and Roethlisberger, no other QB has more than 1.

    - Vince Ferragamo is the only QB to have thrown for 500+ yards in a game without ever appearing in a pro bowl.

    - Teams with a QB throwing for 500+ passing yards are 13-12. This is unsurprising when you consider that they're typically either coming from behind and throwing the ball more.

    - Teams with a QB throwing for 500+ passing yards score an average of 37.44 points, while their opposition averages 36.40 points.

    - QBs throwing for 500+ yards average 3.72 touchdowns and 1.60 interceptions per game.

    - 12 of the 25 games were one-possession games (this doesn't include Vince Ferragamo's Rams losing 34-26 in 1982, since the 2 point conversion wasn't a thing in the NFL at that time).

    - 500+ passing yards in a game is most common in October, where weather is less of a factor (for outdoor games), and where teams are more likely to be facing defenses that are adjusting to new systems, playing inexperienced rookies etc. 9 of the 25 500+ passing yard performances from QBs took place in October.

    - Norm Van Brocklin's record from 1951 stands out as being the only blowout where someone has thrown for 500+ passing yards - The Rams won 54-14 in that game. Every other game with a QB throwing for 500+ yards was won by a margin or 18 points or less. Obviously this is because of teams not 'running up the score', and instead choosing to run the ball and run out the clock once the result is beyond doubt. Alternatively, once teams are in a position where the result is beyond doubt, they tend to bench their starting QB. But it's an interesting reminder that not 'running up the score', pulling the starter and running out the clock wasn't always the norm in the early days of American Football.

    (NOTE: Elvis Grbac, Matt Schaub and Vince Ferragamo really stand out on a list of 500+ yard passing games by a QB, which otherwise contains QBs who were among the best in the league when they threw for 500+ yards)
  • Options
    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    rbh112 said:

    Like said yesterday few people had 7 yesterday now i have 1 more so 8 im just will pick the teams i think will and my all means do your pick for fun

    1 Atlanta vs Jacksonville- hawks =£75 k
    2 dolphins vs panthers - dolphins = £110 k
    3 jets vs texans - texans = £73 k
    4 eagles vs giants - giants = £155 k
    6 steelers vs bengals - steelers £155 k
    7 tampa bay vs colts - tampa bay £53
    8 titans vs patriots - patriot £33 k
    9 chargers vs broncos - chargers £67 k
    10 rams vs packers - rams - £90 k
    11 vikings vs 49ers - vikings - £145 K
    12 browns vs ravens - browns £155 k
    12+1 seattle vs washington - washington = 91 k

    good luck and get involved

    Atlanta Hawks are the NBA team lol.
    But hey, the bloke on the Detroit Pistons who tried to beat the sh*t out of LeBron James broke more tackles than any Lions player this season, so maybe the Hawks would be better than the Falcons by the same logic.
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    MISTY4ME said:

    rbh112 said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    I dont know if the LA Rams will enjoy the freezing cold weather at Green Bay :s

    .....and Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback by a mile this Season, GREEN BAY for me

    Either QB to get over 500+ passing yards 125/1

    Matthew Stafford 300+ Passing Yards, Van Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards & Darrell Henderson Jr 100+ Rushing Yards @ 33/1

    intresting

    I can't ever remember a QB getting 500+ passing yards ......... hence the price.

    I'm sure someone will have, but defo not in a game with really good defences
    hahahahaha it was worth a punt
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    MISTY4ME said:

    rbh112 said:

    so bragging rights are up for grabs hahahahahaha ;)

    GAME ON

    well done misty you won congrats they were much the better team so fair play is green bay ur team u support ?
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    EvilPingu said:

    EvilPingu said:

    The NFL record for passing yards in a game is 554, by Norm Van Brocklin for the Rams in the 1950s.

    There's been a decent amount of 500+ yard games in NFL history. Brady threw for over 500 yards in Super Bowl 52. But yeah, if either QB throws for 500+ yards in a game with either of those defenses, I'll be amazed.

    To provide more stats here, because they're weird and interesting:

    - There have been 25 games where a QB has thrown for 500+ yards in a game.

    - 17 of these games have taken place since 2006, where the rules are obviously more favourable to offenses than they once were. Unsurprisingly, most of these games are also shootouts.

    - 3 of these games have gone into overtime. This includes Derek Carr's 513 yards passing for Oakland vs Tampa Bay in 2016. I remember watching that game as a Raiders fan - we got something like 23 or 24 penalties against us and still won, which is an NFL record for most penalties against a team that still won the game.

    - The QB with the most games with 500+ passing yards is Ben Roethlisberger, with 4. This includes two games where he threw 66 and 68 pass attempts, respectively. The NFL record for pass attempts by a single QB in a game is 70, for comparison.

    - Tom Brady and Drew Brees have two games with 500+ passing yards. Besides them and Roethlisberger, no other QB has more than 1.

    - Vince Ferragamo is the only QB to have thrown for 500+ yards in a game without ever appearing in a pro bowl.

    - Teams with a QB throwing for 500+ passing yards are 13-12. This is unsurprising when you consider that they're typically either coming from behind and throwing the ball more.

    - Teams with a QB throwing for 500+ passing yards score an average of 37.44 points, while their opposition averages 36.40 points.

    - QBs throwing for 500+ yards average 3.72 touchdowns and 1.60 interceptions per game.

    - 12 of the 25 games were one-possession games (this doesn't include Vince Ferragamo's Rams losing 34-26 in 1982, since the 2 point conversion wasn't a thing in the NFL at that time).

    - 500+ passing yards in a game is most common in October, where weather is less of a factor (for outdoor games), and where teams are more likely to be facing defenses that are adjusting to new systems, playing inexperienced rookies etc. 9 of the 25 500+ passing yard performances from QBs took place in October.

    - Norm Van Brocklin's record from 1951 stands out as being the only blowout where someone has thrown for 500+ passing yards - The Rams won 54-14 in that game. Every other game with a QB throwing for 500+ yards was won by a margin or 18 points or less. Obviously this is because of teams not 'running up the score', and instead choosing to run the ball and run out the clock once the result is beyond doubt. Alternatively, once teams are in a position where the result is beyond doubt, they tend to bench their starting QB. But it's an interesting reminder that not 'running up the score', pulling the starter and running out the clock wasn't always the norm in the early days of American Football.

    (NOTE: Elvis Grbac, Matt Schaub and Vince Ferragamo really stand out on a list of 500+ yard passing games by a QB, which otherwise contains QBs who were among the best in the league when they threw for 500+ yards)
    Great info and a very good read thanks
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    EvilPingu said:

    rbh112 said:

    Like said yesterday few people had 7 yesterday now i have 1 more so 8 im just will pick the teams i think will and my all means do your pick for fun

    1 Atlanta vs Jacksonville- atlanta =£75 k
    2 dolphins vs panthers - dolphins = £110 k
    3 jets vs texans - texans = £73 k
    4 eagles vs giants - giants = £155 k
    6 steelers vs bengals - steelers £155 k
    7 tampa bay vs colts - tampa bay £53
    8 titans vs patriots - patriot £33 k
    9 chargers vs broncos - chargers £67 k
    10 rams vs packers - rams - £90 k
    11 vikings vs 49ers - vikings - £145 K
    12 browns vs ravens - browns £155 k
    12+1 seattle vs washington - washington = 91 k

    good luck and get involved

    Atlanta Hawks are the NBA team lol.
    But hey, the bloke on the Detroit Pistons who tried to beat the sh*t out of LeBron James broke more tackles than any Lions player this season, so maybe the Hawks would be better than the Falcons by the same logic.
    yea u got me there fair play

    u follow NFL and if so what team u support ?
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    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    u follow NFL and if so what team u support ?
    rbh112 said:

    EvilPingu said:

    rbh112 said:

    Like said yesterday few people had 7 yesterday now i have 1 more so 8 im just will pick the teams i think will and my all means do your pick for fun

    1 Atlanta vs Jacksonville- atlanta =£75 k
    2 dolphins vs panthers - dolphins = £110 k
    3 jets vs texans - texans = £73 k
    4 eagles vs giants - giants = £155 k
    6 steelers vs bengals - steelers £155 k
    7 tampa bay vs colts - tampa bay £53
    8 titans vs patriots - patriot £33 k
    9 chargers vs broncos - chargers £67 k
    10 rams vs packers - rams - £90 k
    11 vikings vs 49ers - vikings - £145 K
    12 browns vs ravens - browns £155 k
    12+1 seattle vs washington - washington = 91 k

    good luck and get involved

    Atlanta Hawks are the NBA team lol.
    But hey, the bloke on the Detroit Pistons who tried to beat the sh*t out of LeBron James broke more tackles than any Lions player this season, so maybe the Hawks would be better than the Falcons by the same logic.
    u follow NFL and do u have a team u support ?

  • Options
    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    rbh112 said:

    u follow NFL and if so what team u support ?

    Yeah, I'm a Raiders fan (oof)
  • Options
    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,168
    rbh112 said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    rbh112 said:

    so bragging rights are up for grabs hahahahahaha ;)

    GAME ON

    well done misty you won congrats they were much the better team so fair play is green bay ur team u support ?
    No not at all .........but Aaron Rodgers is a Top QB and it must be a massive advantage being used to playing in the COLD every other week.

    I support 49ers .....and Raiders .......especially now they're based in LAS VEGAS (@EvilPingu will hate me for that.......GREAT FACTS btw Pingu :) )
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    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    edited November 2021
    EvilPingu said:

    rbh112 said:

    u follow NFL and if so what team u support ?

    Yeah, I'm a Raiders fan (oof)
    MISTY4ME said:

    rbh112 said:

    MISTY4ME said:

    rbh112 said:

    so bragging rights are up for grabs hahahahahaha ;)

    GAME ON

    well done misty you won congrats they were much the better team so fair play is green bay ur team u support ?
    No not at all .........but Aaron Rodgers is a Top QB and it must be a massive advantage being used to playing in the COLD every other week.

    I support 49ers .....and Raiders .......especially now they're based in LAS VEGAS (@EvilPingu will hate me for that.......GREAT FACTS btw Pingu :) )
    im a chargers fan for my sins. and have been for about 20 yrs got family in san diego so was san diego chargers when i got into NFL and still follow them hate that teams move citys. but what can u do
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    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited November 2021
    rbh112 said:

    hahahahaha it was worth a punt

    I don't mind the punt on the 125/1 for either QB to get 500+ passing yards in this game.
    You're looking for 3 key things here:

    1) Two good QBs - You want both teams to be good enough to score points and not turn the ball over consistently. You want long drives (in terms of yardage) that end in points, because that means both teams are getting the ball at around the 25 yard line more often than not. You want the QBs themselves to be good enough to not get benched for poor performance, and be capable of completing 37/56 for 510 yards and 3 TDs, or whatever their stat line would look like.

    For example: Backing this in a Bucs v Jags game would suck, because if Brady is on pace for 500 yards, the game is probably over by halftime, and the Bucs just run the ball in the second half and bench Brady in the 4th quarter. However, Rams v Packers is a decent spot because both teams can score enough points to keep the starters in the game and playing hard.

    2) Pass-heavy offenses and gameplans - Meh. Rams are good against the pass and even better against the run, Packers are just an all-round league average defense. Both teams are set up better for the passing game. There's much worse spots in this regard, but it's not one that jumps out as being an amazing spot, especially in Green Bay in late November.

    3) Bad enough defenses to make a high-scoring game more likely - This is the one part I didn't like with this bet on this game. The Rams D is one of the best in the league, and the Packers D is solid. It's not Brees' Saints or Romo's Cowboys where they threw money at the QB, WRs and O-linemen, and lacked defensively as a result.

    125/1 was probably about the right price IMO.

    EDIT: If you want a good spot for a similar punt in the future: Raiders @ Chiefs in 2 weeks is worth keeping an eye on. Weather depending, of course.
  • Options
    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited November 2021
    MISTY4ME said:

    I support 49ers .....and Raiders .......especially now they're based in LAS VEGAS (@EvilPingu will hate me for that.......GREAT FACTS btw Pingu :) )

    Haha, yeah strange choice to support the 49ers and Raiders given the local rivalry historically. Different conferences though, I guess.
    rbh112 said:

    im a chargers fan for my sins. and have been for about 20 yrs got family in san diego so was san diego chargers when i got into NFL and still follow them hate that teams move citys. but what can u do

    Fair - Yeah, teams moving isn't a very British thing lol, but it is what it is. Didn't particularly bother me when the Raiders moved to Vegas.
  • Options
    rbh112rbh112 Member Posts: 384
    EvilPingu said:

    rbh112 said:

    hahahahaha it was worth a punt

    I don't mind the punt on the 125/1 for either QB to get 500+ passing yards in this game.
    You're looking for 3 key things here:

    1) Two good QBs - You want both teams to be good enough to score points and not turn the ball over consistently. You want long drives (in terms of yardage) that end in points, because that means both teams are getting the ball at around the 25 yard line more often than not. You want the QBs themselves to be good enough to not get benched for poor performance, and be capable of completing 37/56 for 510 yards and 3 TDs, or whatever their stat line would look like.

    For example: Backing this in a Bucs v Jags game would suck, because if Brady is on pace for 500 yards, the game is probably over by halftime, and the Bucs just run the ball in the second half and bench Brady in the 4th quarter. However, Rams v Packers is a decent spot because both teams can score enough points to keep the starters in the game and playing hard.

    2) Pass-heavy offenses and gameplans - Meh. Rams are good against the pass and even better against the run, Packers are just an all-round league average defense. Both teams are set up better for the passing game. There's much worse spots in this regard, but it's not one that jumps out as being an amazing spot, especially in Green Bay in late November.

    3) Bad enough defenses to make a high-scoring game more likely - This is the one part I didn't like with this bet on this game. The Rams D is one of the best in the league, and the Packers D is solid. It's not Brees' Saints or Romo's Cowboys where they threw money at the QB, WRs and O-linemen, and lacked defensively as a result.

    125/1 was probably about the right price IMO.

    EDIT: If you want a good spot for a similar punt in the future: Raiders @ Chiefs in 2 weeks is worth keeping an eye on. Weather depending, of course.
    ill be picking raiders for that and u are a wealth of knowledge. so u bet on NFL ?
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    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited November 2021
    rbh112 said:

    ill be picking raiders for that and u are a wealth of knowledge. so u bet on NFL ?

    Nah, I don't bet on anything these days.

    I get much more enjoyment from learning about strategy/tactics (e.g. "Why was the Steelers' fake field goal against the Browns a few weeks ago so terrible?") or history, (e.g. "Why on earth haven't we kicked George Preston Marshall out of the NFL Hall of Fame yet, even though he was a failure as a team owner and an even bigger failure of a human being?") than I get from researching sports betting things and trying to find an edge; I can make just as much, if not more, from Poker than I would from sports betting; I've also got plenty of stuff going on outside of the gambling world to take care of.

    I also enjoy watching sports without worrying about "Has this bloke done the thing that wins me money yet?".

    So yeah, I don't really have the time or resources to find a big enough sports betting edge to make it worthwhile, and I'm not really motivated to try.
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