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£1,000 to £30,000 in 12 months could you do it?

DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,925
edited April 8 in Poker Chat
Morning everyone.

I asked a few of my friends a question earlier this week....

You are given a £1,000 bankroll on sky poker.

You have 12 months to turn that £1,000 into £30,000.

You can play any game, any format, as much or as little as you like, and your rakeback is included and goes towards your bankroll.

If you are successful, you win £1,000.000.

What % chance of success do you give yourself?


-------------------

I was really surprised with some of the answers I got, and it ended up being an interesting (to me) debate.

So I thought I'd put the question out there to get more answers...

If you could put a little bit about your current poker level/stakes and experience alongside your answer that would interest me too!

I'll add my thoughts later in the thread.

Thanks ! :)

-------

PS, you arent allowed to sit HU against ya missus and have her donk her life savings off to ya for a cut of your winnings!
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Comments

  • CammykazeCammykaze Member Posts: 1,347
    edited April 7
    Is this on Sky or are other sites included in this?

    Reckon I would need to get lucky in a couple of bigger tournaments to reach £30k.

    Would also need to put in a load of hours to have a shot and commit to the challenge, my application is not the best so this would really hamper the goal.

    To answer your question directly 15 - 25% :) life and relaxation are more important that £30k.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,925
    edited April 7
    Cammykaze said:

    Is this on Sky or are other sites included in this?

    Reckon I would need to get lucky in a couple of bigger tournaments to reach £30k.

    Would also need to put in a load of hours to have a shot and commit to the challenge, my application is not the best so this would really hamper the goal.

    To answer your question directly 15 - 25% :) life and relaxation are more important that £30k.

    Only on Sky ! :)

    ....And its 1 million pounds if you are successful, not just the 30k....
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 5,375
    edited April 7
    I have done this a few times on other sites.

    I think that I have come close on Sky a few years ago.

    Honestly? Now? Less than 1% chance.

    For context, to be on target for this year, you would need to be over $10,000 up on Sharky.
    Current players reaching that for MTTs on Sky? 2.

    The only way this could realistically be done is on Cash. Looks a long shot to me.
  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 16,010
    Not got an answer really. Maybe 'site' players like the bates or lolololol, who play with a different RNG to others, would easily do this on Sky. B)

    I just wanted to say hello JJ. Glad to see you back posting and I can see from Faceache that you are enjoying life very much. Nice one mate.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 3,601
    I'm not sure that there are enough games on Sky to make this achievable for all but a few. Somewhere like Stars where you could just fire up 100 £10 SnGs then rinse and repeat would make it easier although it would be a 16 hr a day grind.

    For me 0.05% and I'd need to run like Bolt.
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 580
    Yeah definitely to be clear I dont think I could with 37.5 hours a week etc. However if £1million was my potential I would dedicate everything to it and with skys promos and playing 90 hours a week yes.
  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 6,335
    Minus 100% people and especially me know the score
    Nice to hear from you JJ hope alls well
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,507
    edited April 7
    With 1 million at stake, coupled with the fact I doubt I could do it with mtts alone, I would just take the super high variance route of spins and hope to get off to a flyer before mixing in 110s mtt wise

    I think the top tier regs could manage it (like top 5% of regs perhaps), but I'm not in that category so hoping to sun run at spins at the start would be my best bet.

    Great to see you posting JJ
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,367
    Put the milly in escrow and give me a couple of months to quit the job, then we’ll talk :D
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,925
    Thanks for the replies so far, I continue to be surprised !

    Is there any chance we can get this moved to the poker section please? x
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 5,375
    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.
  • CammykazeCammykaze Member Posts: 1,347
    DOHHHHHHH said:

    Cammykaze said:

    Is this on Sky or are other sites included in this?

    Reckon I would need to get lucky in a couple of bigger tournaments to reach £30k.

    Would also need to put in a load of hours to have a shot and commit to the challenge, my application is not the best so this would really hamper the goal.

    To answer your question directly 15 - 25% :) life and relaxation are more important that £30k.

    Only on Sky ! :)

    ....And its 1 million pounds if you are successful, not just the 30k....
    In! :D
  • CammykazeCammykaze Member Posts: 1,347
    Essexphil said:

    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.

    I now wish to retract me previous answer :#
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 5,375
    Cammykaze said:

    Essexphil said:

    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.

    I now wish to retract me previous answer :#
    The good thing about this sort of thread is that opinions vary. Quite right, too.

    But (IMO) it is important to be exact on the challenge. It is not-make 30k profit on the site in 1 year. Which would be rather easier.

    It is-start with £1k, no reloading money, and turn it onto £30k. Which is quite a lot harder. Particularly when (outside of UKOPS) there is only 1 MTT a week paying more than about £2k to 1st.
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 121,286
    DOHHHHHHH said:

    Thanks for the replies so far, I continue to be surprised !

    Is there any chance we can get this moved to the poker section please? x

    @DOHHHHHHH


    Done.


    Great to hear from you JJ.
  • TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 3,601
    Essexphil said:

    Cammykaze said:

    Essexphil said:

    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.

    I now wish to retract me previous answer :#
    The good thing about this sort of thread is that opinions vary. Quite right, too.

    But (IMO) it is important to be exact on the challenge. It is not-make 30k profit on the site in 1 year. Which would be rather easier.

    It is-start with £1k, no reloading money, and turn it onto £30k. Which is quite a lot harder. Particularly when (outside of UKOPS) there is only 1 MTT a week paying more than about £2k to 1st.
    Certainly think the very best cash players could give it a good go although would there be enough traffic to enable a prolonged effort.
    Also would BRM prevent it ? £1000 is only 50 buy ins at £20 a time and I can't see those games yielding £30,000 in a year #runlikeusain.
  • EnutEnut Member Posts: 2,645
    I would have no chance. I would have to run considerably better than I do and, more importantly, suddenly become a much better player. Also the hours I would need to put in (currently getting a £2.30 token a week to give you an idea of volume) would mean that my other half would have started divorce proceedings long before the end of the first month.

    It would also mean me giving up my current job, which earns me far more per hour than I could ever hope to win at poker. Not a wise life decision.

    Actually, seeing as I am being 'given' the £1,000, I could give it a go by sitting the whole £1,000 at the highest cash table I could find and trying to sun run against the likes of Alvez etc, even then I would still rate my chances as pretty much zero. The plus side of this approach is that the challenge would be over within hours, then back to real life!

  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,507
    edited April 8
    Essexphil said:

    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.

    I discussed this elsewhere with @Jac35 who believes it would be very doable with DYMS alone due to the rakeback, assuming you put the required volume in.

    Obviously grinding an insane amount of DYMs for a year is a pretty dull existence, but there is 1 million on the line in this scenario.
  • FeelGroggyFeelGroggy Member Posts: 798
    Essexphil said:

    I genuinely love the optimism of some in this thread.

    But I think the ones who are being serious are overstating how achievable this is.

    I think the best player on Sky would have a less than 5% chance of success.

    This is wildly pessimistic. Risk of ruin is actually really low if you practice conservative BRM. Any good 100bb reg playing 50nl+ should be able to complete this and regs playing lower would have a fair chance. Some MTT regs and DYM regs could also do it. With a £1,000,000 bonus on the line you'd throw everything at it, paying for coaching, pouring hours into studying and playing lots of volume.
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