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can anyone work out these odds
prefabman
Member Posts: 3
Just been beaten by quads twice in the space of about 12 hands, first has AJ suited against 55 and player hit quads, then AK suited against 22 and same player hit quads within a dozen hands. Cant do the maths
Comments
I think that's how you do it anyway.
So-odds are about 1 in 4. Or 3/1, if you prefer.
Really doesn't matter how much you lost by. Still the same result.
The simple answer is that the chance of getting quads is (assuming see all hands) about 1 in 595.
If the question was that Exactly Hand 1 and exactly Hand 13 must both have the same player getting quads, then that would be 1in (595 squared). A massive number.
Whereas, if you only start counting from the first quads, it is 1 in 595 again. Within the first 12 hands? 1 in 50 (595/12).
Things that sound next to impossible can happen way more than people think.
In the 2 hands you mentioned, you had AJs and AKs. I don't know what suits they were, but let us (for this example) assume that they are Ah Jh, and As Ks.
The odds of you getting those 2 hands is actually way higher than the 2 sets of quads. It is 1 in (1326 squared).
But that happened too.
Every time we receive 2 hole cards, a 1325/1 chance has happened.
Welcome to the Forum & congrats on your first Royal Flush. Roughly how long have you been with Sky poker? 9 years or so I believe?
Subtly done. WP.
Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths
I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)
Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.
No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.
Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.
You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness
Good luck
And anyone who thinks differently should not be playing online. Nor should they be allowed to.
I have deposited £20 first time i joined, none since. I have withdrawn large amounts a few times. I am clearly not losing more than i can afford. I play an online form of gambling, of which there are many... i could choose any.... of which the vast majority are not random and they tell you this, with a return to player percentage.
Why do i have to believe in this particular one, (when the maths tell me not to)... in order to play, when i dont have to believe in any other form of gambling, that what im seeing is a random occurence... eg slots, bingo, roulette...etc etc People play these games knowing they are not random, so why cant i play mine?
All other forms of online gambling are geared to being set up for the house to win and are not random. But people play them, despite knowing they can not win long term. Yet you think im the one with some kind of problem? Bizarre claim.
what an utter clown you are....
I am amazed they still let you spout your nonsense, day in, day out on here.
Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....
Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......
Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.