You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

can anyone work out these odds

2»

Comments

  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 7,958
    TheWaddy said:

    I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

    Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

    Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

    Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

    You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    That makes you a problem gambler. Sky should be banning you for your own protection.

  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,147
    edited October 2022
    TheWaddy said:

    I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

    Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

    Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

    Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

    Even in a LIVE situation, IF YOUR GLASS IS NEARLY EMPTY, you will be praying that he doesn't hit Runner.....Runner ...... but while ever there are the cards in the deck, it can happen :)
  • UncleNafeUncleNafe Member Posts: 36
    Essexphil said:

    UncleNafe said:

    Hi All

    Have never posted a hand on here before but just wanted to check my maths :)

    I think this is my worst beat after the flop ever as I think the odds for the villain were just under 1000:1 to hit the two black jacks on turn and river! (2/45 x 1/44)

    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    UncleNafeSmall blind100.00100.005320.00
    bludspuddaBig blind200.00300.001275.00
    Your hole cards
    • A
    • A
    FINGERS417Raise700.001000.0011155.00
    scousestarFold
    Wardy1654All-in3365.004365.000.00
    Tweaks7Fold
    UncleNafeAll-in5320.009685.000.00
    bludspuddaFold
    FINGERS417Fold
    UncleNafeUnmatched bet2055.007630.002055.00
    UncleNafeShow
    • A
    • A
    Wardy1654Show
    • J
    • A
    Flop
    • 4
    • 9
    • 6
    Turn
    • J
    River
    • J
    Wardy1654WinThree Jacks7630.007630.00
    Maths can say lots of different things. You need to be careful about how you use Maths in poker (and, for that matter, real life).

    Did you get unlucky? Of course. Very unlucky. But not quite as unlucky as you are telling yourself. It is not wise both to count cards that suit you (the flop) in this sort of mathematical computation.

    No-one has any control about what cards fall after the chips had gone in. They all went in pre-flop. You were a big favourite. 86.45% to win the hand (plus 1.23% for a chop). Which still means that you will lose the hand roughly 1 in every 9 hands.

    Dreamy flop for you. But that was no more under your control than the last 2 cards. The flop could just as easily contained the 2 Jacks. Or 3 Hearts.

    You got it in as well as just about anyone can. But you can still lose. That is the beauty (and the frustration) of the game. But it is counter-productive to start calculations after some of the extra cards come down. That way lies madness ;)

    Good luck
    Thanks for this response - you're absolutely correct of course! I just couldn't resist working out the odds of the 2 black jacks runner runner (which I still think is 0.1% (or 990:1)) after I had started celebrating when I saw the flop!! I'm cool with it - I play for enjoyment at relatively low stakes (this was a £5.50 BH) and I'm long enough in the tooth to accept the inevitable variance of playing tourneys :)
  • Kinda6677Kinda6677 Member Posts: 274
    You dont get bad beats in live poker? Are you fking serious waddy?
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    Essexphil said:

    TheWaddy said:

    I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

    Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

    Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

    Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

    You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    That makes you a problem gambler. Sky should be banning you for your own protection.

    Risking my money! £20 deposited once in 3yrs or so!

    Bingo is different online from the live one. Bingo online is set up to maximise profit and give a percentage win rate, live it just throws up a random ball. Anyone playing bingo online who know this, therefore, is a problem gambler and should be banned for their own protection!

    That is hilarious. Absolutely any online casino games, everyone knows you are not going to beat that system in the long run.... so they should be banned for it!?

    Stu Ungar, the most gifted poker player ever... had he stuck to poker he would have been comfortable all his life.... but his leak, as with a huge amount of other gifted players... was losing it in the casino games, a game they could not beat, as it will always benefit the house.

    Anyone seen playing online casino games, based on your ideas, should be banned!!!

    FYI i do not think poker sites are crooked, the same as i dont think casino's are crooked. People go to a casino as a past time, knowing in the long term they can not win. Yet you claim they not to have a problem, but i do although I choose to play a game where in the long run i can beat the game.

    Please explain why people playing online casino games should not be banned, as all your above statements apply to them too!
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    MISTY4ME said:

    I can't see where the calculation of % is on your piccy..........but 2 cards out of 45 and then 1/44, according to my maths thats a 1% chance of winning. Very small..... but 10 times more than a 0.1% chance of winning I believe

    It says 0.1% if you cant find your glasses... i kind of used the cardplayer pic to show you its 0.1%, if it said 1%, id look a bit stupid wouldnt i!?? ;)
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 7,958
    TheWaddy said:

    Essexphil said:

    TheWaddy said:

    I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

    Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

    Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

    Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

    You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    That makes you a problem gambler. Sky should be banning you for your own protection.

    Risking my money! £20 deposited once in 3yrs or so!

    Bingo is different online from the live one. Bingo online is set up to maximise profit and give a percentage win rate, live it just throws up a random ball. Anyone playing bingo online who know this, therefore, is a problem gambler and should be banned for their own protection!

    That is hilarious. Absolutely any online casino games, everyone knows you are not going to beat that system in the long run.... so they should be banned for it!?

    Stu Ungar, the most gifted poker player ever... had he stuck to poker he would have been comfortable all his life.... but his leak, as with a huge amount of other gifted players... was losing it in the casino games, a game they could not beat, as it will always benefit the house.

    Anyone seen playing online casino games, based on your ideas, should be banned!!!

    FYI i do not think poker sites are crooked, the same as i dont think casino's are crooked. People go to a casino as a past time, knowing in the long term they can not win. Yet you claim they not to have a problem, but i do although I choose to play a game where in the long run i can beat the game.

    Please explain why people playing online casino games should not be banned, as all your above statements apply to them too!
    Wow. That would all have been true. In about 1972.

    Live bingo? The only time those balls are truly random in the way you describe is at the local vicarage. Live games of any size are pre-programmed so that there is only 1 winner. Not thousands. I recall one of the newspapers got this wrong many years ago, and there was absolute chaos.

    You seem to believe that past profitability is the be-all and end-all when it comes to poker. It is not. The current Rules (many of which I personally do not agree with) make it abundantly clear that this is not the case.

    People gambling against a casino is not of itself a problem. Provided they are neither delusional in believing that they can always outsmart the game, or gamble what they cannot afford to lose.

    You only ever claim that poker generally, and SkyPoker in particular, is not crooked when you think you are going to get banned. At all other times you claim that common events absolutely never happen, and that online poker is designed to help the weaker player.

    I made 3 statements. None of which you have actually answered. Here they are:-

    1. You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    2. You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    3. And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    Should people be banned for that? Speaking personally, I don't think they should.

    But I do not get to make the Rules.
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    edited October 2022
    I bel
    Essexphil said:

    TheWaddy said:

    Essexphil said:

    TheWaddy said:

    I think when its screenshots of hands, it can hardly be described as 'nonsense'......

    Try running that hand there and replicating it, from the flop.... see you here same time next week as you are still trying.....

    Would you be nervous about losing that hand when it flops live? Its done, there is no worry. Do you honestly feel the same online when such a hand flops, that its done? Im sorry, if you cant admit that, you are an out and out liar.......

    Someone once asked me to remind them of the difference between an online deck and a real one... i think the above sums up the difference right there, the impending doom when you hit a flop that hard..... a feeling you will never get in a live situation.

    You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    That makes you a problem gambler. Sky should be banning you for your own protection.

    Risking my money! £20 deposited once in 3yrs or so!

    Bingo is different online from the live one. Bingo online is set up to maximise profit and give a percentage win rate, live it just throws up a random ball. Anyone playing bingo online who know this, therefore, is a problem gambler and should be banned for their own protection!

    That is hilarious. Absolutely any online casino games, everyone knows you are not going to beat that system in the long run.... so they should be banned for it!?

    Stu Ungar, the most gifted poker player ever... had he stuck to poker he would have been comfortable all his life.... but his leak, as with a huge amount of other gifted players... was losing it in the casino games, a game they could not beat, as it will always benefit the house.

    Anyone seen playing online casino games, based on your ideas, should be banned!!!

    FYI i do not think poker sites are crooked, the same as i dont think casino's are crooked. People go to a casino as a past time, knowing in the long term they can not win. Yet you claim they not to have a problem, but i do although I choose to play a game where in the long run i can beat the game.

    Please explain why people playing online casino games should not be banned, as all your above statements apply to them too!
    Wow. That would all have been true. In about 1972.

    Live bingo? The only time those balls are truly random in the way you describe is at the local vicarage. Live games of any size are pre-programmed so that there is only 1 winner. Not thousands. I recall one of the newspapers got this wrong many years ago, and there was absolute chaos.

    You seem to believe that past profitability is the be-all and end-all when it comes to poker. It is not. The current Rules (many of which I personally do not agree with) make it abundantly clear that this is not the case.

    People gambling against a casino is not of itself a problem. Provided they are neither delusional in believing that they can always outsmart the game, or gamble what they cannot afford to lose.

    You only ever claim that poker generally, and SkyPoker in particular, is not crooked when you think you are going to get banned. At all other times you claim that common events absolutely never happen, and that online poker is designed to help the weaker player.

    I made 3 statements. None of which you have actually answered. Here they are:-

    1. You believe that the online deck is different from the live one.
    2. You believe that all poker sites rig their decks in order to increase profits.
    3. And yet you continue to gamble at a place where you believe it is crooked. Day after day. Year after year. Risking your money at a place that you believe is rigged.

    Should people be banned for that? Speaking personally, I don't think they should.

    But I do not get to make the Rules.
    So people playing bingo are playing a set determined game, whilst knowing this and 'risking their money'? Day in day out. Year after year. Beware Gladys, you will be banned very soon!

    I believe i did answer the statements. All online gambling IS different than the live situation. Live situations (eg blackjack) do not offer a return to player percentage except for slots. The gambling commission sites state 'All online Rng games have a return to player percentage'.

    This is what i believe, as the Gambling Commision tell me this. As it says 'all' and poker is a 'rng' derived game, i believe this to be true. If i get banned for believing what the GC has told me, then its a poor show. They should remove that statement if it isnt true.

    I have continually said i dont believe its crooked, or wrong in the current legislation... its just businesses maximising profit within the current rules. As for risking my money being flagged as a problem... whilst playing ANY online gambling is risking money ... is absurd! Absolutely all of us are doing this, its called gambling.

    If you are playing slots for example... you are risking your money at a place you believe is, if you like, 'rigged'... Day after day,,,year after year as you say...not a word i'd use, but they are doing exactly the same as me, with one difference.... i will win (at a slower rate than odds dicatate), but they will lose. But you say i should be banned, but them not!
    Ludricous!
Sign In or Register to comment.