What Would You do?

peter27 · January 2023

Hello all! I don't post here too much these days, but I hope everyone is well.

I have a hand from a live tournament yesterday that I would like some opinions on please. This was in the £560 UKPC Main Event at Nottingham.

Blinds 2k/4k, 15 minute levels.

- Player one (MP, tight-to-average frequency, aggressive) open raises to 9k. They have ~200k behind.
- Player two - John Eames (WSOP 2022 main event 4th place, loose aggro) 3-bets to 30k. He has ~300k behind.
- I'm sat in the BB with 88, with a stack size of ~170k. They see me as average frequency & aggressive.

My question is, from my available actions (fold, call, 4-bet, shove), what would be your order of preference?

I'll come back and post how the hand played out later once I see some responses.

Tikay10 · January 2023

@peter27

Hi Peter,

Hope you are well, & good to see you.

I've moved this across to Poker Chat so it might get more eyeballs.

madprof · January 2023

Hey Peter

I know nothing, can’t play the game but for me it’s shove or fold. In this case ( and most others ) FOLD…I tend to shove over the top with 99 as a minimum, also depends how close to cashing the; it’s deffo a FOLD!

Once you’ve had some more considered, more interesting and frankly more informed answers, I’ll be interested to know what you did ( hope you shoved, hoped one of them called and hope you doubled up!)

Great fun playing though?( I must get to some live gigs this year)
GL

PP

tai-gar · January 2023

Having played with John a little my guess is that he would not have raised here with AJ or less. At best you would be flipping if you shoved.

MISTY4ME · January 2023

Hi Peter

FOLD for me .....and wait for a better spot .....but I know nothing either.

Would be good to know if it was near the Ca$h .....How many players were left etc. I presume this was a side Tourney with the Blinds going up every 15mins

bbMike · January 2023

£560 live event with 15min blinds? Think I’d stay home

Bean81 · January 2023

Seems like a fold. Would prob be fine to shove if you were shorter.

Cold calling 3bets is generally atrocious. Can't 4bet fold at these stack depths.

PaintedOne · January 2023

fold
shove
outcome im guessing is you fold and player one shoves , and john folds

Essexphil · January 2023

Would probably be fine to shove if you were shorter. Similarly, if you had a big stack (300k+), fine to call. Call wouldn't be so bad IF we knew original raiser is not going to reraise.

Fold. Although live I would probably call, fold is the best option.

My guess is you flop a set, only to be overtaken on the River.

Asho28 · January 2023

Fold for me also. Only time I would even consider jamming here is if both villains were opening/3-betting a lot and I viewed them as loose and splashy players, but even then we can still end up being dominated if we shove. 40+ BB is still plenty to work with anyway, even with the blinds going up quickly.

Agree with @Bean81 that cold-calling here would be very bad, given our stack size and fact that we're not closing the action. Even if we get to see a flop, we would pretty much end up having to fold most of them that don't include an 8

Doooobs · January 2023

Fold. I am not convinced John Eames is loose aggressive. You'd have to be pretty confident they both were to shove here and even if you were, think it is probably a fold.

tomb1793 · January 2023

Fold
Call
Shove
4-bet

For me the standout option is to fold. Not a lot between call & shove but I would narrowly favour a call. If you flop it, you're very likely winning a lot of chips; if you shove you could easily be drawing near dead. And you have a big enough stack to fold to a 4-bet or on the flop. Being 4-bet is also a disaster though, so it surely has to be a fold. More often than not 88 is an average-poor hand after a flop.

madprof · January 2023

@peter27

Hey, like you I thought you would get a bigger response….what did you end up doing? The suspense is KILLING ME!

Enut · January 2023

I'd fold. I'm not calling nearly 20% of my stack in the hope of hitting a set and that assumes player one doesn't shove. I'm not shoving over 40BB with 88 as you must be able to find a better spot than that and 4 betting pretty much commits us anyway or certainly commits a huge amount of our chips to see a board that we almost certainly miss and still don't know where we are.

MISTY4ME · January 2023

......and you also know that you can't rely on the SKY RNG helping you on the River in DTD Notts.

Tikay10 · January 2023

@FeelGroggy
@StayOrGo
@destinycod
@Swog
@fishhhhh
@Natnug
@cabbaz
@chrisdonkb
@Itsover4u
@PBKR
@PKRPar
@peter27

waller02 · January 2023

Also folding. Calling seems pretty bad with MP still to act and not happy to gii here either, there are far better spots imo.

Swog · January 2023

@peter27 - This is BB response v LJ open + BU 3bet at 40bb (assuming everyone playing perfectly - you can make your own judgement and adjust accordingly if that isn't the case).

The ranges will differ based on exact positions - e.g. if 3bettor is earlier position than button.

I would also say certain hands like A5s/TT/AQs could be torching money as a shove if 3bettor is too value heavy/not enough bluffs.

I wouldn't have any cold calls in this spots and, assuming this is relatively early stages (not near the money/ITM), i would shove a range of JJ+ AK. Can expand if we are confident there are 3bet bluffs from opponent (e.g. ATo/KJo/K9s/Q9s/A5s etc) but, from my limited experience playing live, this doesn't tend to be the case.

StayOrGo · January 2023

Cold calling the three bet is undoubtedly the worst option, as the stacks are not deep enough to set mine, and also what are you then going to do when/if the original raiser JAMs.

So it's either all in or fold.

Was John Eames on the button?

As much as I would be tempted to JAM, I would only do it, if John Eames 3bet percentage was excessive (ie > 15%), and/or if the original raiser folds to 3bet a lot, and you think John realises that, which may cause him to 3bet light.

If the above don't apply, I'd fold.

That's my opinion anyway.

Itsover4u · January 2023

Playing 42.5bb we are just folding this spot even if we think they may be getting out of line. Calling is almost certainly the worst option 4b would be second as it looks stronger than jamming.

If we jam we are essentially hoping to be called by AK everything else is crushed.

4b jamming point is going to be around the 20bb mark but even less if we have not seen to many 3bs from either of them.

Swog · January 2023

Itsover4u said:
Playing 42.5bb we are just folding this spot even if we think they may be getting out of line. Calling is almost certainly the worst option 4b would be second as it looks stronger than jamming.

If we jam we are essentially hoping to be called by AK everything else is crushed.

4b jamming point is going to be around the 20bb mark but even less if we have not seen to many 3bs from either of them.

What size are you going with 4bet if you’re not jamming? For example with AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA?

What Would You do?

Comments