£250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem

DoubleAAA

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancePlayer 1
Small blind 300.00300.0012975.00Player 2
Big blind 600.00900.0028260.50 Your hole cardsKA   DoubleAAA? ?900.007909.00Player 3
   900.00
9527.00

DoubleAAA

There is 1 player who has been sat-out for the past 5 mins, and has a stack of ~4500 and 2 other players with 25k between them.  6th place is paying £32.

Question is, do we sit out and look to cash hoping that the shorty sat out does not return, or do we open shove? Or a third possibility is to min-raise (bb usually completes and is playing fit/fold flops) What are your thoughts?

Slipwater

Well, unless that £32 is vitally important to you, you shouldn't 'sit out and look to cash'. Why would you? You're in the tournament to win it. I think we open shove here. We only have 13 big blinds, so we can't raise effectively, and you can't sit around forever to wait for another big hand. Go for it - get it in the middle. If you get called and go out, so what? At least you went down on your own terms, and not bleeding away chips waiting for a better spot that may never come around.

Lambert180

Yeah easy shove imo

DoubleAAA

What are your thoughts about the min raise? bb is straight forward and fit/fold on flops. Potential min raise then cbet something like 1300 into 2700 if the min raise does not get through? Leaves us with 5400 afterwards if we've missed or called on the flop.

gazza127

All in every day of the week.

Even Thursdays.


You cant play post flop poker with your stack especially if you c-bet and villain continues on say a J high flop.

Shove is the only action IMO.

a00rock

No hesitation here all in and what will be will be. Its gonna take another 4 circuits for the short stack to blind out and even then there is no guarantee that will happen 1st time around. Also its doubtful you will find a better spot than this to jam within the 4 circuits. In it to win it Jam.

Lambert180

Would you take this line with 44? (if the answer is yes, I'd recommend against it lol).

Also, the BB isn't the only person you have to get through, you're UTG and have to get through the whole table. If you minraise and get shipped on you obv HAVE to call it off.

Only reason I might minraise is if I thought there was a few really aggro players that were VERY likely to shove on me so I can snap them off, but meh just shove.

Phantom66

Should be shoving all your range in that spot imo. Always play for the win making sensible risks if you can.

BB has a big stack and is defending his blinds.

AK is at its strongest pf - rarely improves on flop. You want your chips in while guaranteed to get all 3 streets to hit your cards if you need to.

PS general point - It's good that you are observing other table..

1. Don't have to take a gamble yourself if there is a real shortie having to negotiate blinds. Not in this case and I suspect the 4.5k will suddenly wake up if they get AA/KK!
2. Can keep an eye on what your value will be if you double up - bust = £0 what pos does a double up put you on? Locks in the £32 plus where would you rank relative to prize pool and opponents? Knowing that should make you feel more comfortable that flips here are much better for you in the long run than losing blinds waiting to cash.
3. Can get a feel for other players before tables join

DoubleAAA

I shoved as of course I wanted to go for the win and not just min-cashed but I had questioned whether this was the correct play ICM-wise.

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceDoo1Small blind 300.00300.0012975.00skyflyBig blind 600.00900.0028260.50 Your hole cardsKA   DoubleAAAAll-in 7909.008809.000.00ZahZafCall 7909.0016718.001618.00Doo1Fold    skyflyFold    DoubleAAAShowKA   ZahZafShowAA   Flop  37K   Turn  5   River  A   ZahZafWinThree Aces16718.00 18336.00

rancid

Well you would have to plug everything into an ICM calculator and it would work out if AKo is a shove w/13bb.

I am pretty sure it would say shove.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

Well you would have to plug everything into an ICM calculator and it would work out if AKo is a shove w/13bb. I am pretty sure it would say shove.
Posted by rancid

Problem is the icm calculator would not be able to calculate the fact that the short stack has been sitting out for the past 5 mins so that would not really give us what we're looking for.  If the guy had not been sat out for the past 5 mins then even we have almost double his stack we're still shoving.

a00rock

Correct play...well done...cooler ul. Even if you had min raised and villain had called with K on flop it was still all going in Yes? so stop doubting/questioning yourself the play was fine .

F_Ivanovic

Shoving is obviously +ev but 13bb's is still a lot to shove, especially on the button and UTG. It gives other players at the table an oppertunity to easily fold KQ, KJ, AJ/AT and worse aces. Whereas if we min-r we give them the option of jamming with those worse hands. We also allow smaller pocket pairs to jam - now OK, we want to avoid this if we can but getting it in with a flip with AK is not the end of the world. And we need to think about our entire range here - and if we had TT-AA in this spot then getting a smaller pair to shove with only 20% equity is fantastic for us!

If we min-r and get called we have 11b. I will usually c-bet 1/3 of the pot in these situations so that's probably 2bb at most. Sometimes we will have to c-bet fold but 9bb is not the end of the world. It's still a stack size that has fold equity which is exactly what we want!

I'm by no means a tournament expert but that's my opinion anyway

gazza127

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem : Problem is the icm calculator would not be able to calculate the fact that the short stack has been sitting out for the past 5 mins so that would not really give us what we're looking for.  If the guy had not been sat out for the past 5 mins then even we have almost double his stack we're still shoving.
Posted by DoubleAAA

We don't play tournaments to min cash (or at least we shouldnt).  We play tournaments to win.

Would you rather min cash 3/10 tournaments or win 1/10?

Easy shove, and to consider otherwise is just being results orientated.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem : We don't play tournaments to min cash (or at least we shouldnt).  We play tournaments to win. Would you rather min cash 3/10 tournaments or win 1/10? Easy shove, and to consider otherwise is just being results orientated.
Posted by gazza127

No, I was happy with the shove, running into AA was just unlucky and I would do it againbut I had questioned if it was the correct play given the situation of the player sitting out and short before I shoved ICM-wise.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

Shoving is obviously +ev but 13bb's is still a lot to shove, especially on the button and UTG. It gives other players at the table an oppertunity to easily fold KQ, KJ, AJ/AT and worse aces. Whereas if we min-r we give them the option of jamming with those worse hands. We also allow smaller pocket pairs to jam - now OK, we want to avoid this if we can but getting it in with a flip with AK is not the end of the world. And we need to think about our entire range here - and if we had TT-AA in this spot then getting a smaller pair to shove with only 20% equity is fantastic for us! If we min-r and get called we have 11b. I will usually c-bet 1/3 of the pot in these situations so that's probably 2bb at most. Sometimes we will have to c-bet fold but 9bb is not the end of the world. It's still a stack size that has fold equity which is exactly what we want! I'm by no means a tournament expert but that's my opinion anyway
Posted by F_Ivanovic

So you're actually favouring the min-raise, cbet-give up if missed/called line?  I had wondered after the hand if that would be the better line to take given the dynamics and as you rightly pointed out, we could well induce someone to shove a weaker Ax or take a flip with vs a PP.

I just thought it was an interesting spot and worthy of posting for some opinions.

rancid

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem : Problem is the icm calculator would not be able to calculate the fact that the short stack has been sitting out for the past 5 mins so that would not really give us what we're looking for.  If the guy had not been sat out for the past 5 mins then even we have almost double his stack we're still shoving.
Posted by DoubleAAA

I really don't know what to say when you challenge the proven maths of poker

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem : I really don't know what to say when you challenge the proven maths of poker
Posted by rancid

What I mean is that ICM will say its a shove all day long but the fact that we know that the shorty is sitting out does this change things? That's all I'm saying. Not challenging the proven maths.

Slipwater

Seriously, mate?

You have AK.

Shove it. No calculations. No, but-he's-been-sitting-out-for-five-minutes. No hesitation. Shove.

And that is really the end of the story.

Phantom66

In Response to Re: £250 Gtd £11, AKo utg, Bubble, ICM problem:

Shoving is obviously +ev but 13bb's is still a lot to shove, especially on the button and UTG. It gives other players at the table an oppertunity to easily fold KQ, KJ, AJ/AT and worse aces. Whereas if we min-r we give them the option of jamming with those worse hands. We also allow smaller pocket pairs to jam - now OK, we want to avoid this if we can but getting it in with a flip with AK is not the end of the world. And we need to think about our entire range here - and if we had TT-AA in this spot then getting a smaller pair to shove with only 20% equity is fantastic for us! If we min-r and get called we have 11b. I will usually c-bet 1/3 of the pot in these situations so that's probably 2bb at most. Sometimes we will have to c-bet fold but 9bb is not the end of the world. It's still a stack size that has fold equity which is exactly what we want! I'm by no means a tournament expert but that's my opinion anyway
Posted by F_Ivanovic

minraise is not a terrible line -especially if you have been minraising thin a lot in earlier orbits and minraises are generally getting thru on the table. It is the bubble after all. Plus we will have position and villain is generally passive post flop which is good.

However...

Villain is defending his blind to minraises so it is likely going to a flop.

fold to a villain flop bet or a check/shove on our cbet makes us look so weak and we are unlikely to pick up such a good pf hand in next couple of orbits.

If villain reshoves then we would have much less expectation on a call than we would have for an initial shove - and we would still have to call.

minraise could keep SB and BB in the hand and we definitely don't want a 3 way flop.

Personally with 13bb I would rather minraise a junk hand that can get away from or AA/KK. Anything else is a shove.
15bb+ and I would probably minraise, 10bb- 100% shoving - so as I say it is marginal.

Other Short stack with 6.5bb is not that short at this stage so wouldn't factor that in - just shove and go for the uncontested blinds/chance of a double up.

That's all gut feel though, doesn't answer Doubles ICM question and sometime the technical maths answer does spring up a surprise vs intuitive play.