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Can a chicken go pro?

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  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    Good luck Chicken ! From a Newbie :)
    Posted by KLW1888


    Wow- first post and you chose to wish me luck with it! Thank you!
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    board: 2,7c,4c
    HandEquityWinsTies
    Ac9c33.43%13,141,502191,737
    88-AA, KcQc66.57%26,263,791191,737


    ok, I've estimated the chipstacks of everyone else, and the prizepools as best I can and put them into an ICm calculator...

    My ICM values are:

    £297 if I fold on the flop
    £441 if I shove, am called, and win (I dont think he is ever folding after that flop bet)
    £90 If I shove and lose

    tourney Equity If I shove:
     = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)
     = (33.5% x £441) + ( 66.5 x £90)
     = ( 147.7) + (59.85)
     = £207.55

    ...so by shoving over the flop bet, assuming my ranges are correct (give me suggestions??) I lose almost £90 on average!

    --------------------------

    ... if we use Ivans 46% equity (what range are you using??) then the results are:

    tourney Equity If I shove:
     = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)
     = (46%% x £441) + ( 54% x £90)
     = ( £202.86) + (48.6)
     = £251.46

    ...still a loss of around £45

    ---------------------------------

    *EDIT*

    even if the villain folds 10% of the time, and with Ivan's 46%...

    ICM value if I shove and villain folds = 371

    tourney Equity If I shove:
     = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)
     = (46%% x £441) + ( 54% x £90)
     = ( £202.86) + (48.6)
     = £251.46

    +

    equity of villain folds * chance of folding = 37.1

    £251 + £37.1

    ...still a loss

    ------------------------------


    if the villain folds 20%, then we are in profit, buuut, like I said I fell I had a decent edge anyway

    fold equity is massive in situations like this, and I felt like I had none as played...


  • gazza127gazza127 Member Posts: 2,156
    edited November 2013
    Yes... but why wouldnt you lead?
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    because I felt like he had an OP way too much and would come over the top... then I'm in the same ICM spot as above, except I have less chips... or flat and leave a horrible decision on the turn the 3/4 or so of the time I miss...
  • bearlytherbearlyther Member Posts: 1,757
    edited November 2013
    Why are we check folding the flop?  Did we miss read the suits in our hand?
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    Why are we check folding the flop?  Did we miss read the suits in our hand?
    Posted by bearlyther


    OK, maybe time for a summary...

    -I 3bet the button.

    -the BB flatted, which was strange, because he had never done it before. set some alarm bells going

    -I checked the flop because I felt like the villain had an OP alot and would come over the top and put me in a tough ICM spot like the one above, or flat almost every time, and I'd be stuck in a disgusting spot on the turn if I missed or even hit a 9 ( I miss the A or FD about 75% of the time!). 99% of the time I would lead, but this hand was strange becasue of the 3bet flat.

    -instead I decided to Check raise all in - to maximise fold equity, and make sure I see all the cards if called
    ... but the villains bet sizing was alot bigger than expected, so I flt like what ever fold equity I did have, no longer was there, so I had the option of shoving anyway, or folding. according to my calculations (shown above), the fold was by far the best move with anything under about 20% fold equity.



  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    most people dont seem to agree with it... but I still dont think I'd play it differently other than possibly the 3bet pre...
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited November 2013
    Have had an eye on the thread, but not read every post so sorry if I've missed the answers but...

    What makes you so sure villain is going to stab 100% of the time?

    Did you consider leading maybe 3.6k? to give you leverage on good barrel cards?

    You could lead 3.6k, maybe fold out AQ/AJ/AT/small pairs, or even induce from KQ/KJcc.

    Do you think he peels TT then ships over a small cbet here?

    I think leading small might be a decent option, it keeps your range balanced, and gives you opportunity to outplay him on the turn where being oop will be an advantage on a lot of cards.

    The 2nd shell wont have to be much either, and this line kind of merges the lower and higher variance approaches, giving urself a chance to win the hand without risking your tournament, instead of check/giving up. You can rep huge really easily and still get away if he's stubborn/got it ott.

    I don't mind your idea of c/shoving the flop if you are "100% sure" he will stab. But I'm not sure how you can be?

    End on a positive, Congrats on your win! :D
  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited November 2013
    3bet sizing is far too big imo.

    After I see this flop I am high fiving the dealer and maybe taking him/her out to dinner.  Am betting to get it in on the flop.  As played still c/r jamming.  I think checking the flop here after the three bet is so exploitable.  If you're check/folding A9s here you might as well be c/f Nines, Tens, Jacks.  I need more info on the oppo if I am automatically assuming they are cold calling with a completely nutted range.

    And if we are in a spot of bother, we are never ever far behind.
  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited November 2013
    I'm pretty sure your stove on this has come out wrong. We have 45% vs any overpair to our 9 (except AA) and I did the same range (except I took out 88/99) and we had 45% anyway vs TT-AA and KcQc. Again this is the tightest possible range though we're up against where opponent always b/c. 

    I don't have time to check your ICM calculations but will take your word for it. However, the point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't be 3-betting with this hand and then playing this way post-flop. This is because the main reason of your fold was that you believe you have an edge vs other players and can build up a stack risk free by playing small ball - so it's baffling why you would then choose to 3b with this hand because by nature it will be a large variance play. I would much rather just fold or call pre-flop if I was trying to play a small ball game. Yes, it's not going to be too fun playing OOP potentially in a 3 way pot but it should still easily be +ev here and it's definitely lower variance.

    Also ICM is never completely accurate anyway. Getting it in here and winning is going to give us a really nice chip stack - you said that after you folded you were able to increase your chip stack with no problem risk free - well, you would have had the same easy time doing that but with a bigger chip stack. And thus your ICM in the tournament would have gone up and up anyway (and more than what you valued it at when you called and won) - I think if we had a hand like JcTc here or even KcQc I'm far more inclined to agree with c/f once the bet of that size had come in but we are just too strong with Ac9c. edit: Also as Tommy said, if your c/f this hand what are you calling with? This is like the only hand we can have where we have fantastic equity vs anything opponent can have. If we have QQ we could be dead to KK/AA or a set. KK we could be dead to AA/set. Even AA we could be dead to a set. Unlikely, but possible! Ac9c we are not dead to anything.
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    Have had an eye on the thread, but not read every post so sorry if I've missed the answers but... What makes you so sure villain is going to stab 100% of the time? Did you consider leading maybe 3.6k? 

    yeah, my standard cbet at this stage is quite small, thats around the sizing I would be using...probably more like 4.6k though. This guy was quite tricky, floating alot and betting EVERY time I had checked to him.

     to give you leverage on good barrel cards? You could lead 3.6k, maybe fold out AQ/AJ/AT/small pairs, or even induce from KQ/KJcc. Do you think he peels TT then ships over a small cbet here?

    not certain, but if I had to guess, then yes.


     I think leading small might be a decent option, it keeps your range balanced, and gives you opportunity to outplay him on the turn where being oop will be an advantage on a lot of cards. The 2nd shell wont have to be much either, and this line kind of merges the lower and higher variance approaches, giving urself a chance to win the hand without risking your tournament, instead of check/giving up.

    against most opponents and in most situations, this would be my plan.

     You can rep huge really easily and still get away if he's stubborn/got it ott. I don't mind your idea of c/shoving the flop if you are "100% sure" he will stab.

    I was 98% sure he would stab...is that enough? :)

     But I'm not sure how you can be? End on a positive, Congrats on your win! :D
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    3bet sizing is far too big imo.

    yeah, i dont normally 3bet this big, but I have found more success 3betting OOP to 3.5x recently...


     After I see this flop I am high fiving the dealer and maybe taking him/her out to dinner. Am betting to get it in on the flop.  As played still c/r jamming.

    I've said before, 99% of the time, I'm betting to get it in too, but my read was that he was strong (cold calling a large 3bet with a player still to act?!). I think its 99-AA (99-JJ because they dont want to get it in just yet, and KK-AA as a trap hoping the button shoves) here sooo often and hands like AQ, KQs. the large bet on the flop made me think even more that he has a pair and is trying to protect against overcards and the FD

    what sort of range would you put the villain on in this spot?

      I think checking the flop here after the three bet is so exploitable. 

    yes, against most opponents, I wouldnt dream of it - but my read that he would bet was golden, I promise you. I chose to make an exploitable play to exploit another player.

     If you're check/folding A9s here you might as well be c/f Nines, Tens, Jacks.  I need more info on the oppo if I am automatically assuming they are cold calling with a completely nutted range. And if we are in a spot of bother, we are never ever far behind.
    Posted by TommyD
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    I'm pretty sure your stove on this has come out wrong. We have 45% vs any overpair to our 9 (except AA) and I did the same range (except I took out 88/99) and we had 45% anyway vs TT-AA and KcQc. Again this is the tightest possible range though we're up against where opponent always b/c.  I don't have time to check your ICM calculations but will take your word for it. However, the point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't be 3-betting with this hand and then playing this way post-flop.

    I was trying to exploit my opponent... I'm never normally playing like this

     This is because the main reason of your fold was that you believe you have an edge vs other players and can build up a stack risk free by playing small ball - so it's baffling why you would then choose to 3b with this hand because by nature it will be a large variance play.

    ok, maybe using the word high varience was wrong, I meant without risk of busting/being crippled - if I lose an AI to the button I still have 20bb, and I fold to a shove from the BB. was expecting the BB to fold obv.

     I would much rather just fold or call pre-flop if I was trying to play a small ball game. Yes, it's not going to be too fun playing OOP potentially in a 3 way pot but it should still easily be +ev here and it's definitely lower variance. 

    I've said before how much I hate flatting from the SB vs a button raise...I'd only ever do it to exploit someone, and playing vs this bb OOP would not be fun.

    Also ICM is never completely accurate anyway. Getting it in here and winning is going to give us a really nice chip stack - you said that after you folded you were able to increase your chip stack with no problem risk free - well, you would have had the same easy time doing that but with a bigger chip stack. And thus your ICM in the tournament would have gone up and up anyway (and more than what you valued it at when you called and won) - I think if we had a hand like JcTc here or even KcQc I'm far more inclined to agree with c/f once the bet of that size had come in but we are just too strong with Ac9c. edit: Also as Tommy said, if your c/f this hand what are you calling with? This is like the only hand we can have where we have fantastic equity vs anything opponent can have. If we have QQ we could be dead to KK/AA or a set. KK we could be dead to AA/set. Even AA we could be dead to a set. Unlikely, but possible! Ac9c we are not dead to anything.

    I know, but with a hand like this I need fold equity to make it profitable no?


    Posted by F_Ivanovic


    just tried it again..

    board: 2, 4c, 7c
    HandEquityWinsTies
    88,99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, KcQc66.57%26,263,791191,737
    Ac9c33.43%13,141,502191,737
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited November 2013
    Mr Melt, I think I would still be looking to get it in on that flop with A9s. But having played that villain a few times, I can understand why the hand played out the way it did.

    Congrats on your bink sir!
  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    Mr Melt, I think I would still be looking to get it in on that flop with A9s. But having played that villain a few times, I can understand why the hand played out the way it did. Congrats on your bink sir!
    Posted by hhyftrftdr

    I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?... 

    I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop.

    Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..
  • GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,620
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?...  I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop. Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..
    Posted by chicknMelt

    77

  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : 77
    Posted by Glenelg
    just 77?

  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:
    In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?...  I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop. Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..
    Posted by chicknMelt
    I'd snap assign 99-QQ.

    I think he's heavily weighted towards these hands.

    Maybe some AQ, AJs, even Ace Kings.......

    Think readless I auto put him on TT/JJ and go from there.
  • GELDYGELDY Member Posts: 5,203
    edited November 2013
    big stack vs a constant stealer
    pretty wide
    looking for an opportunity to use his stack against you
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited November 2013
    I'd say 99+. And this villain will consider 99 to be the nuts on a 7 high board. But we have a 9 so that pair is unlikely. 

    I'll go with 1010. Which is why it is such a sweet spot if we have AA/KK, but not such a sweet spot with just the A9s. 

    In answer to the previous post, yes I would lead out, fully expecting him to ship his (not so) massive overpair.
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