In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Julian, Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes.... Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage. I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable. Posted by BigBluster
Maths is unarguable?
In this spot IMO it is likely opponent has an overpair or a draw and flush draw is the most likely. If our opponent has say tens we are a fav to win! If they have a flush draw then we crush them. We are behind to a flopped straight/sets/2pr but we have to question would they play a one of these hands like that?
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Maths is unarguable? In this spot IMO it is likely opponent has an overpair or a draw and flush draw is the most likely. If our opponent has say tens we are a fav to win! If they have a flush draw then we crush them. We are behind to a flopped straight/sets/2pr but we have to question would they play a one of these hands like that? Posted by MattBates
BigBluster said he'd fold AA pre flop on Sky to a single all in....so I think we can take his maths with a bag of salt
The only decent arguement for folding is the fact that we are deep stacked for this stage of the tourney and could possibly hit top 10 by grinding rather than flipping. Its really a player dependant spot, neither move is wrong.
If I had some reads on the oppo then that would be vital in the decsion really. Readless his range his too wide, with reads we could possibly narrow his range and make a profitable call.
I think the defining factor to fold is the amount we have put in. 3BBs. If I had bet and then got shoved I would call but I probably tank and mumble and rant and rave and then fold!
Snap call, can't believe some people are advocating a fold.
To do well in MTTs requires a killer instinct, you need to have the nerve to take spots like this. Shrinking voilets who choose to shy away here will make plenty of min-cashes, but they will hardly ever win.
The guys with the bottle to play for first place will do far better in the long run.
The bubble is irrelevant, if a min-cash is important to you you're under-rolled, which in turn is causing you to play sub-optimally.
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : BigBluster said he'd fold AA pre flop on Sky to a single all in....so I think we can take his maths with a bag of salt Posted by hhyftrftdr
Do you actually have any opinions of your own or do you just comment on mine? If you have any independent thoughts outside the usual ABC or 2+2 then please volunteer them.
Snap call, can't believe some people are advocating a fold. To do well in MTTs requires a killer instinct, you need to have the nerve to take spots like this. Shrinking voilets who choose to shy away here will make plenty of min-cashes, but they will hardly ever win. The guys with the bottle to play for first place will do far better in the long run. The bubble is irrelevant, if a min-cash is important to you you're under-rolled, which in turn is causing you to play sub-optimally. Posted by GaryQQQ
I think people are being blinded by this 'we're not allowed to fear the bubble' mentality. I completely agree with the latter part of Gary's post that if mincashing is important, you're underrolled and not playing optimally, however, I don't think this is the consideration here, it's certainly not mine.
I'm folding this on the stone bubble, but I'm folding it 20 away from the stone bubble too, or 40 away from the stone bubble. I'm not folding because I wanna mincash, I'm folding because I don't think calling is our best option when you look at all factors.
All the time, people say 'do X cos we shouldnt be scared of the bubble' but not being scared of the bubble is not an excuse to make bad decisions. I think it's silly to say you have to have the nerve to take spots like this to win MTTs, it just isn't true, basically saying you have to pure gamble. Ofc it's better on this flop if we can shove over a donkbet and have FE or something but here we are just calling all in or not so have to look at just our equity in the pot. Pot odds aren't great cos it's a MASSIVE overshove into a tiny pot, and our hand equity is never gonna be that great. PokerStove has been taken down now but I'd be amazed if we're ever much better than maybe 55/45 against his range.
If you genuinely feel like your game is weak and the best opportunity you have will be to take a virtual flip for a huge stack then go for it, but I know for a fact if I'm sitting with 45xBB then I have pretty big edge over most players I'll ever come across in an MTT on here. Just seems madness to give up our edge when we can crush without the big gamble. I've won many an MTT and they don't have to involve just punting off a massive stack like this.
45xBB on Sky with no antes is huuuuuuuuuuuuuge.
In general, we can shove on people when we're often gonna be facing a flip and it's good cos we have FE. If we're calling it off knowing we're flipping (which imo we will be) and we're deepstacked then it's really bad. Good MTT players have a pretty huge edge against the average player 45xBB deep in a Sky MTT, why would we let our opponent completely negate our edge and force us to just flip?
^ pro poker tools as an alternative to pokerstove.
board: 5c6s9c
Hand
Equity
Wins
Ties
AcQc
46.77%
25,713
438
TT, JJ, 9K, 9A, 9Q, 8cTc, KcJc, 66, 56
53.23%
29,289
438
OK so this was a quick guestimate of a range I put in. I only included one set because it's unlikely villain does this with a set. Included a few 9x hands since it's something I see often when someone makes a play like this as well as JJ/TT that didn't 3b pre. Also included a couple of flush draws (with JcTc aswell our equity goes up slightly by 0.6%) I think 56 is a hand that makes this play quite often too - included all combos even tho he might not play all off suit pre but this is negated by me including quite a few 9x combos.
So yeah as we can see calling here is going to be a virtual flip. We'd need reads that villain is capable of shoving complete garbage + any FD for us to be looking at having better than 50% equity. I think in general I would agree with Lambo's post. It's a myth that you NEED to take spots like this to win an MTT because you don't. I've won/FT quite a few MTT's where I've barely taken a big gamble up to then just because I was never in a position to need to do so.
I don't think calling is necessairly bad though. If we're playing quite a few tables and can't fully focus on this one table then I'd be quite happy to call here. Almost 50% equity at least and if we win we have a massive chance of going far. If I'm only playing 2/3 tables tho and can pretty much fully focus on this tournament (and believe us to have a pretty decent edge on the table) then I'm quite happy to fold because I'm more confident I'll realise my skill edge.
^ pro poker tools as an alternative to pokerstove. board: 5c6s9c Hand Equity Wins Ties AcQc 46.77% 25,713 438 TT, JJ, 9K, 9A, 9Q, 8cTc, KcJc, 66, 56 53.23% 29,289 438 OK so this was a quick guestimate of a range I put in. I only included one set because it's unlikely villain does this with a set. Included a few 9x hands since it's something I see often when someone makes a play like this as well as JJ/TT that didn't 3b pre. Also included a couple of flush draws (with JcTc aswell our equity goes up slightly by 0.6%) I think 56 is a hand that makes this play quite often too - included all combos even tho he might not play all off suit pre but this is negated by me including quite a few 9x combos. So yeah as we can see calling here is going to be a virtual flip. We'd need reads that villain is capable of shoving complete garbage + any FD for us to be looking at having better than 50% equity. I think in general I would agree with Lambo's post. ...
If think the shoving range has a lot more draws and random cards? I have called in very similar spots to this before and been shown 2 completely random cards. Like KQo on a board like this wouldn't surprise me at all.
If u include flush draws(which we crush), straight draws, random spasz shoves it should increase out equity I around the 60%+ mark. I would go as far to say we are crushing, or at least ahead to other draws etc at least 1/4 of the time. Probably 9x and other 1 pair hands 50% and the rest in the last 25%
I fold, based on the fact that I probably need to hit to win and I will miss more often than I hit. I'm not a fan of calling off my tournament life on a draw, albeit a good one, especially on the bubble. You can quite comfortably fold and make a min cash which is far far better than bubbling after, I suspect 3 hours+ of play. There should be plenty more opportunities in the tourney to 'get it in' in a far, far better position.
If the bubble has burst then, depending on how you feel, go for it, you've already banked a profit and can now go for the win.
Easy for Yoyo to say he would call, he's been there and done it and of course a 32% chance of hitting for us mere mortals is about a 95% cert for him!
This is a fantastic hand to look at with all the dynamics. But in the 15 seconds you get to decide. I imagine if you took a poll.
Most would call and I am included. Granted the opinion would change if min cashing is a big thing for you, but like someone mentioned earlier it depends on how you 'Play to win'. Fold for a better spot or play your draws and double to 90 + bb.
I applaude the fold as in this particular spot I would of called. But then again we shall never know what happend as there was two cards to come. So regardless of math and opinion I believe that there is no right decision in this spot.
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Do you actually have any opinions of your own or do you just comment on mine? If you have any independent thoughts outside the usual ABC or 2+2 then please volunteer them. BB. Posted by BigBluster
Untwist your knickers yeah
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Call, call and call again. I think our equity, in general on Sky, is gonna be so much. I've seen chip leaders to do with total rags, worse flush draws etc etc. Obviously If we had solid reads that villain only does this with sets or whatever, then we could pass. But this is readless, and I just can't imagine random sets/2 pairs donk over jamming, even on Sky.....they would just check minraise innit
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? :
If think the shoving range has a lot more draws and random cards? I have called in very similar spots to this before and been shown 2 completely random cards. Like KQo on a board like this wouldn't surprise me at all. If u include flush draws(which we crush), straight draws, random spasz shoves it should increase out equity I around the 60%+ mark. I would go as far to say we are crushing, or at least ahead to other draws etc at least 1/4 of the time. Probably 9x and other 1 pair hands 50% and the rest in the last 25% Posted by chicknMelt
Really? I mean I would agree completely if the shove was like 1.5x pot or something similar. But it's like 6/7x pot and I'd be pretty astonished to see him have KQ here.
I know this means range means the villain is calling pretty wide preflop... I dont think that would be uncommon for a bigstack on sky though. OP - did you have any reads on what the villain was playing like preflop? I also didnt include any random spasz shoves, so that should make up for the times when they do it with 2pair +
Ivanovic - tbf, the KQo donk bet overs hove I called referring to was for around 3x pot... so I could be overvaluing the chances of random cards. I do think though that the villain will be shoving a wider range though still... like if they are shoving KcJc, would they not also shove KcTc? or are you thinking that they wont flat KcTc preflop?
Lambert - I'd have to be crushing pretty hard to consider passing a spot like this, even for 45bb on the bubble in a 3bb pot or whatever it was.
i know its making alot of assumptions, but shauny folded, and finished 8th if we say that was his average cash when he folded I dont think that would be too far wrong. If he called, he would only have to finish 2 places higher on average on the occasions he won this hand to show a long term profit... with a 90bb stack i'd fancy his chances.
rough prizes including bounties
1st: £1900
2nd: £1000
3rd: £650
4th: £500
5th: £400
6th: £320
7th: £240
8th: £180
When you call: (0 x 38.81%) + (£320 * 61.19%) = £195
All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call.
Comments
People who are saying fold, then maybe they should be just folding pre ?
What are you hoping for ? a AQQ flop ?
In this spot IMO it is likely opponent has an overpair or a draw and flush draw is the most likely. If our opponent has say tens we are a fav to win! If they have a flush draw then we crush them. We are behind to a flopped straight/sets/2pr but we have to question would they play a one of these hands like that?
To do well in MTTs requires a killer instinct, you need to have the nerve to take spots like this. Shrinking voilets who choose to shy away here will make plenty of min-cashes, but they will hardly ever win.
The guys with the bottle to play for first place will do far better in the long run.
The bubble is irrelevant, if a min-cash is important to you you're under-rolled, which in turn is causing you to play sub-optimally.
45xBB on Sky with no antes is huuuuuuuuuuuuuge.
In general, we can shove on people when we're often gonna be facing a flip and it's good cos we have FE. If we're calling it off knowing we're flipping (which imo we will be) and we're deepstacked then it's really bad. Good MTT players have a pretty huge edge against the average player 45xBB deep in a Sky MTT, why would we let our opponent completely negate our edge and force us to just flip?
I fold, based on the fact that I probably need to hit to win and I will miss more often than I hit. I'm not a fan of calling off my tournament life on a draw, albeit a good one, especially on the bubble. You can quite comfortably fold and make a min cash which is far far better than bubbling after, I suspect 3 hours+ of play. There should be plenty more opportunities in the tourney to 'get it in' in a far, far better position.
If the bubble has burst then, depending on how you feel, go for it, you've already banked a profit and can now go for the win.
Easy for Yoyo to say he would call, he's been there and done it and of course a 32% chance of hitting for us mere mortals is about a 95% cert for him!
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Call, call and call again. I think our equity, in general on Sky, is gonna be so much. I've seen chip leaders to do with total rags, worse flush draws etc etc. Obviously If we had solid reads that villain only does this with sets or whatever, then we could pass. But this is readless, and I just can't imagine random sets/2 pairs donk over jamming, even on Sky.....they would just check minraise innit
Almost always.