All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call. Almost always. Posted by Slipwater
I agree with that but we need to evaluate whether decisions we make in the heat of the moment are good long term ones.
That range just seems way too wide for me. Either villain has been incredibly lucky the entire tournament or they should have gone broke by now if they're been donk shoving every flop for over 7x pot with 2nd pair and a gutshot (77/88/67) Sure, they could occasionally make a bad play like this but they won't be doing so every time with every combo of these hands. A5 and A6 are also a bit absurd to include.
I mean it basically means they're just open shoving 1/3 of the time when they see a flop almost. Including stuff like KcTc is fine. I only excluded it just because he might not always donk shove his flush draws. He could be completely weighted towards FD's though and maybe 56 in which case our equity is still v high. But if it's more 'balanced' and includes stuff like 9x hands then our equity drops quite a bit.
As I said though I don't think a call can be wrong. We're almost flipping at worst vs his range and could be in v good shape vs his range if it's weighted towards flush draws. If we had say just the K high FD though then folding IMO becomes clearly best.
All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call. Almost always. Posted by Slipwater
so you make your call in your 15 seconds...fine.
now dont you wonder if its the right move?
do you not want to know what to do next time?
The game gets harder to beat all the time, and giving up 1 or 2% in equity is alot more significant than it used to be! Also, getting into the finer details helps you to make correct decisions in similar situations too.
Personally I fold in this spot, for reasons Jacko made.
I think a few people who said they call have missed a key factor when they said you are going to min cash if you don't call.
You have a stack that's equivalent to a starting stack in level 3 or 4. Often, if you've got a table that's pretty soft I tend not to take flips where I'm fairly deep and feel I have an edge. If the tourneys stacked with better players then I'd be inclined to gamble here but it's more often a fold for me.
Tough spot, sigh fold and just accept it for what it is: a bigger stack abusing you on the bubble.
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : so you make your call in your 15 seconds...fine. now dont you wonder if its the right move? do you not want to know what to do next time? The game gets harder to beat all the time, and giving up 1 or 2% in equity is alot more significant than it used to be! Also, getting into the finer details helps you to make correct decisions in similar situations too. Posted by chicknMelt
I know that, Melt. I just think that this hand on this board is a call almost every time you play it. I mean, what kind of flop are you expecting to hit with your AQ suited? A lot of times you're ahead of the guy shoving, and the times when you're behind (and it won't be by much) you have approximately 83 outs.
@slipwater...just read the bold italic bit at the bottom... is that more of a comfortable level of analysis for you?? :P
That range just seems way too wide for me. Either villain has been incredibly lucky the entire tournament or they should have gone broke by now if they're been donk shoving every flop for over 7x pot with 2nd pair and a gutshot (77/88/67) Sure, they could occasionally make a bad play like this but they won't be doing so every time with every combo of these hands. A5 and A6 are also a bit absurd to include.
well, yes, A5 and A6 are a bit absurd... but isnt a donk shove for 7x pot with any hand completely absurd?? I also agree they probably arent doing this every time with all the hands I have in the range...but, do you think they are doing it with the same hands every time, or do you think for example, one time they donk shove A9, the next the check shove, another time they donk, another time they check call. I suspect there is at least an element of randomness like this. Also, because its the bubble, their range could be alot wider than normal. I guess what I'm getting at, is that it may not have been the specific hand that made him shove, but the situation combined with a compatible hand.. Removing any of the 1 pair hands wont make much difference to our equity anyway since our equity was roughly the same as it would be vs any 1 pair hand...
He could be completely weighted towards FD's though and maybe 56 in which case our equity is still v high. But if it's more 'balanced' and includes stuff like 9x hands then our equity drops quite a bit. As I said though I don't think a call can be wrong. We're almost flipping at worst vs his range and could be in v good shape vs his range if it's weighted towards flush draws. If we had say just the K high FD though then folding IMO becomes clearly best.
Agree. its not like we are either way ahead or way behind. worst case is that we are all completely wrong and they are doing it with a made straight/set... so we are either way ahead, flipping or slightly behind, so a call can never be a terrible mistake
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : I know that, Melt. I just think that this hand on this board is a call almost every time you play it. I mean, what kind of flop are you expecting to hit with your AQ suited? A lot of times you're ahead of the guy shoving, and the times when you're behind (and it won't be by much) you have approximately 83 outs. Posted by Slipwater
yeah ok, I agree, especially now after I have done all this analysis...but I wasnt too sure at the time what the correct move wouild be. 45bb into a 3bb pot or wahever is pretty extreme.
in game I would have called, but I would have known it was pretty close and wouldnt know for sure it was correct until after analysis
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : yeah ok, I agree, especially now after I have done all this analysis...but I wasnt too sure at the time what the correct move wouild be. 45bb into a 3bb pot or wahever is pretty extreme. in game I would have called, but I would have known it was pretty close and wouldnt know for sure it was correct until after analysis Posted by chicknMelt
Hi Melt, when working out your equity do you factor in the edge you have over the table? Odds wise it's close but if you're by far the best player at the table then would you factor this before flipping?
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Hi Melt, when working out your equity do you factor in the edge you have over the table? Odds wise it's close but if you're by far the best player at the table then would you factor this before flipping? Posted by cowhead
Yes, always. not only that, but ICM
I think you have to be careful not to over estimate your edge, with the equity you give away though.
I'd probably always pass up a 50/50 spot unless i needed to gamble and ICM wasnt a consideration
with ICM a factor, and at a decent table as a rule of thumb id be looking for 55%+ equity, obv each situation is different.
With 60%+ equity, I'd be calling almost all the time. the table would have to be super soft. I dont think the OP said they were printing money at the table, so i'd be calling here.
For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand).
Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call.
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Yes, always. not only that, but ICM I think you have to be careful not to over estimate your edge, with the equity you give away though. I'd probably always pass up a 50/50 spot unless i needed to gamble and ICM wasnt a consideration with ICM a factor, and at a decent table as a rule of thumb id be looking for 55%+ equity, obv each situation is different. With 60%+ equity, I'd be calling almost all the time. the table would have to be super soft. I dont think the OP said they were printing money at the table, so i'd be calling here. Posted by chicknMelt
In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : So what youre saying is that its a fold then? Posted by cowhead
No, a call... I believe we have more than 60% equity so I'm basically never folding. It would take a table full of truely awful players to make think about folding
For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand). Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call. http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg Posted by GaryQQQ
Excellent. I didn't know pokersnowie let you construct your own scenarios yet.
That would tie in almost exactly with having 60% equity...
If u start with 45bb
(40% x 0bb) + (60% x 90bb) = 54bb
I don't think we can fold this. The only question is whether 9bb is enough to counter the effect of ICM, which I expect it does.
For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand). Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call. http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg Posted by GaryQQQ
Couple of issues with that though....
1) Pokersnowie is all about learning how to play as close to GTO as possible. I won't start the debate about whether we wanna play GTO or exploitative poker but I think whether it's a call or not based on GTO here is pretty much irrelevant cos we can bet villian probably aint playing anywhere even vaguely close to GTO
2) The fact it's cash and not a tournament is the whole difference for me. I said in one of my earlier posts that we might be as much as 55/45 v his range, and if that's the case in cash, then we 100% should be snapping it off everytime if we're rolled cos every hand is a fresh start, it's the most +EV option so that's what we do. It's the fact it's a tournament that changes it... if we're a strong player then we have a big edge over your average Sky MTT field and with 45xBB we have plenty of room to use that edge.
I don't know about the rest of the table obviously, but just take the one player in this hand... I'm not being funny but clearly a player who makes this move is really bad no matter what 2 cards he has. Short of bad beats/outdraws etc, I'd be pretty shocked if I couldn't outplay/find a better spot to get my chips all in V this guy when we're so deep than being marginally better than a flip.
You don't think you'd take the chips of a guy that plays this bad much more than 50% of the time, this deep, if you allow yourself to play on your terms?
but isnt a donk shove for 7x pot with any hand completely absurd??
Yes, it's definitely strange and probably not the most optimal play but then again we are on the bubble and it's possible that villain could have a balanced shoving range here that's going to be hard for us to exploit. He puts maximum pressure on our range knowing that the best hand we can have is an overpair.
Here's my tuppence worth, as stated before I think we have to call here. Here are a couple of ranges I have assigned:
Over pair, 2 pairs, realistic flush draws, 1 pair+gutshot etc TT,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o makes us 54.7%
if we include sets: TT-99,66-55,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 45.8%
if we inc the flopped straight: TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 44.4%
Now the main question to ask is this....
Would villain play a flopped straight or a set like this? I would say no and at the very most I reckon we would see villain turn over a set or a straight 5% of the time.
The 15 seconds we get it's a call and like melt said, it's always good to analyse after to know whether the call we made was a good one or not.
I think with almost 55% (I think this is higher as I do not think villain will hardly ever show up with 2 pairs here) we have to call and if villain played his flopped straight or set this way and gets calls then fair play to him. If he has hardly anything and he gets us to fold monster draws like this, then I think he can profitably exploit many of you by flatting your pre flop raises and jamming most scary boards as clearly you cannot call. ------------------------------------------- Edit: Thought I would include this scenario. Imagine we had AA and he did this would you call?
AA = 51.6% Everything above including flopped straights and sets. TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o
So if you would call with AA then you have to call with the AQ hand. fwiw, I would fold any overpair here, but call this AQcc all day long.
You gotta love pokersnowie. Such a good idea. It's definitely going to make NLH harder to beat though
I wouldn't say that pokersnowie is completely irrelevant, I think it does tell us what we should expect our equity to be. But then I could just be saying that because it happened to be close to my estimated equity
You say that our equity could be as much as 55%. I reckon it's 60+ ...if I thought my equity was capped at 55% I'd probable be advocating the fold too, especially if we had a decent edge. For arguments sake, if the equity was 60%+ would you be calling?
I agree with your comments about being able to find better spots against a player that does this sort of thing regularly. 2 things I would say though, that you possibly aren't considering: it's the stone bubble, this could be the only time the villain makes a spasz move trying to take down a pot with a rediculous bet that you "can't call"; the hero hasn't said anything about having a big edge on the table/field.
Yes, it's definitely strange and probably not the most optimal play but then again we are on the bubble and it's possible that villain could have a balanced shoving range here that's going to be hard for us to exploit. He puts maximum pressure on our range knowing that the best hand we can have is an overpair. Posted by F_Ivanovic
IMO, if the villain has a balanced shoving range, it's completely by accident.
to me it just looks like a bet designed to push you off a hand...
Really interesting posts and opinions. I personally side with Lambert's last post here (as said before) in my opinion we are far too deep to risk our tourney on what is, at best, a flip. Even if we are as much as 60% we are still calling a massive all in with a only draw.
Fold and we live to take advantage of villian's play throughout the rest of the tourney. Maybe next time he tries this move we can snap him off with a set or two pair ourselves!
Comments
I know that, Melt. I just think that this hand on this board is a call almost every time you play it. I mean, what kind of flop are you expecting to hit with your AQ suited? A lot of times you're ahead of the guy shoving, and the times when you're behind (and it won't be by much) you have approximately 83 outs.
well, yes, A5 and A6 are a bit absurd... but isnt a donk shove for 7x pot with any hand completely absurd?? I also agree they probably arent doing this every time with all the hands I have in the range...but, do you think they are doing it with the same hands every time, or do you think for example, one time they donk shove A9, the next the check shove, another time they donk, another time they check call. I suspect there is at least an element of randomness like this. Also, because its the bubble, their range could be alot wider than normal. I guess what I'm getting at, is that it may not have been the specific hand that made him shove, but the situation combined with a compatible hand.. Removing any of the 1 pair hands wont make much difference to our equity anyway since our equity was roughly the same as it would be vs any 1 pair hand...
For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand).
Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call.
http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg
You don't think you'd take the chips of a guy that plays this bad much more than 50% of the time, this deep, if you allow yourself to play on your terms?
Over pair, 2 pairs, realistic flush draws, 1 pair+gutshot etc
TT,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o makes us 54.7%
if we include sets:
TT-99,66-55,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 45.8%
if we inc the flopped straight:
TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 44.4%
Now the main question to ask is this....
Would villain play a flopped straight or a set like this?
I would say no and at the very most I reckon we would see villain turn over a set or a straight 5% of the time.
The 15 seconds we get it's a call and like melt said, it's always good to analyse after to know whether the call we made was a good one or not.
I think with almost 55% (I think this is higher as I do not think villain will hardly ever show up with 2 pairs here) we have to call and if villain played his flopped straight or set this way and gets calls then fair play to him. If he has hardly anything and he gets us to fold monster draws like this, then I think he can profitably exploit many of you by flatting your pre flop raises and jamming most scary boards as clearly you cannot call.
-------------------------------------------
Edit:
Thought I would include this scenario. Imagine we had AA and he did this would you call?
AA = 51.6%
Everything above including flopped straights and sets.
TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o
So if you would call with AA then you have to call with the AQ hand. fwiw, I would fold any overpair here, but call this AQcc all day long.
Fold and we live to take advantage of villian's play throughout the rest of the tourney. Maybe next time he tries this move we can snap him off with a set or two pair ourselves!