peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!

peter27

Hey guys,

I am quite experienced when it comes to sports betting (despite only being 21) and do make a profit overall when it comes to placing bets, albeit playing at a low stake level. My most common sport to bet on is football, and while I am a football nut - my true passion in life is Motorsport. I am now combining by experience gambling and my love of Formula One to create this thread/challenge.

How it works
I will be staking a maximum of £10 before every Grand Prix of the season in order to try and make a profit. This may be on one bet, or several bets - but each week a maximum of £10 will be wagered. I will post all my bets here for you to see how I get on, and maybe even copy if you wanted - these essentially will be my tips!

Record
Pre-Season: + £162.12
Race 1: Australia + £2.38
Race 2: Malaysia + £4
Race 3: Bahrain + £2.70
Race 4: China - £1.87
Race 5: Spain - £4.90
Race 6: Monaco + £12.88
Race 7: Canada + £1.08
Race 8: Austria + £7.00
Race 9: Britain - £5.50
Race 10: Germany - £1.70
Race 11: Hungary - £3.64
Race 12: Belgium - £2.40
Race 13: Italy + £3.72
Race 14: Singapore + £4.80
Race 15: Japan + £0.00
Race 16: Russia + £6.67
Race 17: United States + £3.00
Race 18: Brazil - £20.00
Race 19: Abu Dhabi + £64.09
Total: + £234.43

wynne1938

In Response to peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

Hey guys, I am quite experienced when it comes to sports betting (despite only being 21) and do make a profit overall when it comes to placing bets, albeit playing at a low stake level. My most common sport to bet on is football, and while I am a football nut - my true passion in life is Motorsport. I am now combining by experience gambling and my love of Formula One to create this thread/challenge. How it works I will be staking a maximum of £10 before every Grand Prix of the season in order to try and make a profit. This may be on one bet, or several bets - but each week a maximum of £10 will be wagered. I will post all my bets here for you to see how I get on, and maybe even copy if you wanted - these essentially will be my tips!
Posted by peter27

Good Luck!

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

In Response to peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : Good Luck!
Posted by wynne1938

Thank you very much Wynne!

About to post some bets now.

peter27

Pre-Season

Did not set myself a limit for these ones - the £10 limit only applies to the individual races.

Sky Bet
Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8
Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5
Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50

Betfred
Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50

Total staked: £106
To be settled: £106
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

Pre-Season Did not set myself a limit for these ones - the £10 limit only applies to the individual races. Sky Bet Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10 Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10 Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10 Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8 Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1- £5.00 Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4- £4 .00 Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4.00 Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50 Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50 Betfred Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50 Total staked: £106 To be settled: £106 Profit/Loss: £0
Posted by peter27

Abit different to your poker diary Peter.

That's 2x your poker bankroll staked in post 1!

Saw a tip for Hamilton to win SPOTY in 2014 @ 14/1 ?

More value in that than backing him to win the F1 C'ship?

The favourite for SPOTY is Andy Murray, but he has doubts over his fitness and would probably need to win Wimbledon again to win the award.

Other rivals in the market are Chris Froome and Lizzy Yarnold from the winter Olympics, so not too much competition.

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

peter27

Race 1: Australia

Sky Bet
Qualifying Winning Margin: 0.250 Secs or More @ 5/4 - £1.50
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 4/1 - £1
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 2/1 - £1
1st Team to Retire: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1

William Hill
Winning Constructor - Race: Mercedes @ EVS - £2
Podium Finish: Felipe Massa @ 11/4 - £1
Race Winner (EW): Jules Bianchi @ 1000/1 - £1*
Points Finish: Jules Bianchi @ 6/1 - £0.50
Pole, Fastest Lap & Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 16/1 - £0.50
Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/1 - £0.50

*Obviously this selection is very unlikely, but I figure if the unreliability is worse than anyone expected, it's possible - good value at 1000/1 in my opinion!

Total staked: £10
To be settled: £10
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : Abit different to your poker diary Peter. That's 2x your poker bankroll staked in post 1! Saw a tip for Hamilton to win SPOTY in 2014 @ 14/1 ? More value in that than backing him to win the F1 C'ship? The favourite for SPOTY is Andy Murray, but he has doubts over his fitness and would probably need to win Wimbledon again to win the award. Other rivals in the market are Chris Froome and Lizzy Yarnold from the winter Olympics, so not too much competition. http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

My bankroll is around £60 at the moment on my poker diary ;-)

I will be staking considerably more on F1 betting though because I have a much more detailed knowledge of F1 than I do poker! Of course I am working on my poker, but I doubt I will ever get to the same level as I am with motorsport, I have been watching religiously since I was four years old

SPOTY is not something I know too much about, but I guess 14/1 is value. Then again, I wouldn't say Lewis has done anything special in the last year so I'm not sure why he would win it (that is assuming the award is given based on performance in their respective field)?

DOHHHHHHH

He's 2/1 fave to win the F1 title, which would make him a big player in the SPOTY field where he's 14/1

Can't see many potential rivals tbh, maybe some will emerge from the boxing world throughout the year.

Anyway gl this weekend.

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

He's 2/1 fave to win the F1 title, which would make him a big player in the SPOTY field where he's 14/1 Can't see many potential rivals tbh, maybe some will emerge from the boxing world throughout the year. Anyway gl this weekend.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Oh, I see where you're coming from now - well yes, if SPOTY is awarded after November, and Lewis wins the title - then I guess he has a great chance! My money is on Rosberg though

Thank you very much! Fingers crossed :-)

1267

Gone for both Williams cars to finish in the points at 11/10 !

same bet but less on Red bull EVENS .  (Just hope they both make it to the finish)

1981MATT

This seems interesting I have had £5 in total

Alonso 9/1

Rosberg/Alonso 1-2 20/1

Rosberg/Button 1-2 66/1

Hamilton/Alonso 1-2 6/1

Alonso/Button 1-2 150/1

peter27

Race 1: Australia (Result)

Sky Bet
Qualifying Winning Margin: 0.250 Secs or More @ 5/4 - £1.50 ... WON £3.38
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 4/1 - £1 ... WON £5
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 2/1 - £1 ... LOST
1st Team to Retire: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1 ... LOST

William Hill
Winning Constructor - Race: Mercedes @ EVS - £2 ... WON £4
Podium Finish: Felipe Massa @ 11/4 - £1 ... LOST
Race Winner (EW): Jules Bianchi @ 1000/1 - £1 ... LOST
Points Finish: Jules Bianchi @ 6/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
Pole, Fastest Lap & Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 16/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/1 - £0.50 ... LOST

Total staked: £10
To be settled: £0
Returned: £12.38
Profit/Loss: + £2.38

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

Gone for both Williams cars to finish in the points at 11/10 ! same bet but less on Red bull EVENS .  (Just hope they both make it to the finish)
Posted by 1267

Got unlucky with the Massa incident for the Williams bet, could have easily happened otherwise!

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

This seems interesting I have had £5 in total Alonso 9/1 Rosberg/Alonso 1-2 20/1 Rosberg/Button 1-2 66/1 Hamilton/Alonso 1-2 6/1 Alonso/Button 1-2 150/1
Posted by 1981MATT

None of these came off sadly :-(

1981MATT

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : Got unlucky with the Massa incident for the Williams bet, could have easily happened otherwise! In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : None of these came off sadly :-(
Posted by peter27

Not even after the DQ but 1-3 was quite close there seems to be good value in the reverse forecast 

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : Not even after the DQ but 1-3 was quite close there seems to be good value in the reverse forecast 
Posted by 1981MATT

Bottas would have had a podium if he didn't hit the wall! But it is only his second season so he's entitled to make some errors :-)

alex1229

Im a big of on betting on F1 quite succesfully over the past year and a bit, ill share my opinions with you guys.

Theres a lot of value to be had in practise, ill post up my bets as and when i do them

peter27

In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:

Im a big of on betting on F1 quite succesfully over the past year and a bit, ill share my opinions with you guys. Theres a lot of value to be had in practise, ill post up my bets as and when i do them
Posted by alex1229

Interesting, I've never really found this myself. The only practice market I ever see is session winner, and while that does represent value, it is quite hard to pick the selection correctly - or make any reasonable stab at why one driver is likely to top the session. Will be interested to see your bets.

peter27

Race 2: Malaysia

Sky Bet
Total Classified Finishers: Under 14.5 Finishers @ EVS - £1.25
Vettel Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1.25
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 - £1.25
Lap 1 Retirements: 4 or More @ 7/1 - £1.25
Ricciardo Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1

William Hill
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 - £2
Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 13/5 - £1
First Constructor Retirement: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1

Found it difficult to find value spots for this race, but I think I did a decent job in the end. Clearly from my selections I think Malaysia will be a race of attrition. Due to the humidity, the power units will be under much more stress than experienced at the last race and that's why I am expecting unreliability to be much higher than in Australia - not to mention the prospect of monsoon rains. One stumbling block may be if the race director decides to throw the safety car before the rain gets too bad, thus reducing the chances of cars spinning out and lowering the stress on the power units. Let's see what happens!

Total staked: £10
To be settled: £10
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0

peter27

Race 2: Malaysia (Result)

Sky Bet
Total Classified Finishers: Under 14.5 Finishers @ EVS - £1.25 ... LOST
Vettel Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1.25 ... LOST
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 - £1.25 ... WON £5
Lap 1 Retirements: 4 or More @ 7/1 - £1.25 ... LOST
Ricciardo Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1 ... WON £3

William Hill
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 - £2 ... LOST
Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 13/5 - £1 ... LOST
First Constructor Retirement: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1 ... WON £6

Total staked: £10
To be settled: £0
Returned: £14
Profit/Loss: + £4.00

peter27

Pre-Season (Update)

Sky Bet
Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8 ... LOST
Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5
Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50

Betfred
Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50

Total staked: £106
To be settled: £98
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: - £8

Clackett

Been looking at your (tips) for a little bit of interest when im betting on my formula 1, I must say sum of them seem to be a little bit more of a shot in the dark rather than a tip as such. I do like a trier though so good luck chap. if u ok il drop a few of my own before races. get a little bit of a comp going???