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IPL 2014 tips + stuff

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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: T20 world cup tips + stuff:
    Weather forecast looks fine

    Starting from scratch on there, looks like I've bet a couple of quid with 3 different people? 

    Yorks lose the toss and are put in. 0-0 after 4 balls, and are now in to 5/4. How/why? :/
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH

    Most unusual...

    Reason for that is that only prices with over £2 available are displayed. You will be part-matched for under £2 at bigger prices from time to time.

    Once a market goes in-play the odds always shorten up. This is because when you place a bet you can either keep it or cancel it when it goes in play. those offering the top prices will cancel the bet and reasess leaving a few spivs to try and trade out using joke prices.


    Yorkshire looking good. Probably can't lose from here and will have some scoreboard pressure later today.
    Liquidity seems poor. Almost 120% book as i type. In contrast Mumbai v kolkata is @ 100.6% and its 2 days away. Maybe waiting 4 days for a result is putting people off.

  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Ugh liquidity is something I'd never even considered, just another thing to get my head around.

    I was having a play around with the golf yesterday, I had a pre tournament sweat on Rickie Fowler still running, so spent most of the round playing about with hypothetical bets, seeing how green I could get.

    Great fun!

    ---------------------

    Struggling with the IPL.

    Like Chennai and Punjab at the moment but it seems wide open.

    1 Virender Sehwag, 2 Manan Vohra, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 George Bailey, 5 David Miller, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Wriddhiman Saha, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Murali Kartik, L Balaji

    Shaun Marsh/Thishara Perera on the side.

    Ever heard of winner.com? I'm always unsure with these unheard of bookies.

    They're going 150/1 Manan Vohra top tournament run scorer, which is double the next best price.
    (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/top-batsman)

    Started the last campaign on fire as an unknown quantity.
     
    Think he's going to get the gig at the top of the order to start with, unless they prefer Marsh to Miller, which would be crackers (imo).

    Insane lower middle order firepower there, gun bowler in MJ, Murrali Kartik underrated too. Fancy them to be in the frame.

    *Edit, after re-looking at the Punjab squad, not as confident that he'll get a game. Looks a toss up between him and Mandeep Singh.

    Still going to take 150/1 at small stakes if that site is ok though and just hope he gets an early score to retain his place should he get the nod.


    Pre tournament fancies (not backed yet)

    Manan Vohra top tournament bat (ew 1/4 odds top 4) @ 150/1
    Punjab to make top 4 @ 11/10
    Chennai tournament winners @ 9/2 (They will make the top 4 gtd)

    George Bailey top Punjab runscorer @ 9/1 (bet365) ?

    Don't know if this is me contradicting myself by taking Bailey in this market and Vohra in the tournament market, but they both look like good prices to me.

    I guess he's 9/1 due to doubts about his selection, but as captain he should get first crack ahead of Marsh.

    Sehwag, Maxwell, Marsh, Miller all ahead of him in the betting, Miller will be held back as a finisher, Maxwell will float, often flatters to deceive with quick 20/30s, Marsh may not play enough, and Sehwag could be anything.

    9/1 looks ok to me for a guy who should get plenty of opportunity batting at 4, and with the firepower around him might take on the responsibility of holding things together whilst still being able to explode himself at the end as he proved in the epic Aus v India ODI series (in India) not so long ago.

    Just got rather excited after seeing 20/1 about Amit Mishra top RR bowler.

    Different Amit Mishra

    Not even a common name, I've never met anyone called Amit. :(

    Heads spinning after just an hour, so much to go at. Back for more later.
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    Intended to reply to this yesterday but an up + down day on the horses caused me to forget about cricket.

    Hoping for an IPL preview in the racing post tomorrow cos I've not even familiarised myself with the squads yet.

    George Bailey tip looks a  good shout.

    So far my only research is that the Sri Lankans will be here in a few weeks so that might affect some franchises.

    I'm off to lose in the pool league just now but when I return, humiliated, I'll have a crack at some pre-tournament stuff.

    In your opinion do you think the overseas players are most important or which team has a good crop of young homegrown players??
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: T20 world cup tips + stuff:
    Intended to reply to this yesterday but an up + down day on the horses caused me to forget about cricket. Hoping for an IPL preview in the racing post tomorrow cos I've not even familiarised myself with the squads yet. George Bailey tip looks a  good shout. So far my only research is that the Sri Lankans will be here in a few weeks so that might affect some franchises. I'm off to lose in the pool league just now but when I return, humiliated, I'll have a crack at some pre-tournament stuff. In your opinion do you think the overseas players are most important or which team has a good crop of young homegrown players??
    Posted by ff55hh
    I've been using the cricinfo "probable first 11s" as a starting point.
    http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2014/content/story/718635.html

    Think at the top end of the table it's definitely the home grown players that make the difference.

    Chennais success over the years has been built around MS Dohni, R. Ashwin, R jadeja & Suresh Raina.

    That's why I fancy Punjab to do well this year, if the unpredictable Indian opening partnership of Sehwag and Vohra can fire it opens things up for their quality in the middle order. Bit of a punt as they're unpredictable but the price is decent enough to have a go. 

    Excited about the start tomorrow!

    Can only see 1 result, both teams stronger in bowling than batting (which imo will be a rarity looking at the squads), but KKR particularly weak with the bat, Mumbai too strong overall. 

    Putting them in a double with Dehli to win on Thursday. 

    Opposite here, 2 teams packed full of batting talent. 

    RCB will fancy they can chase literally anything, but Gayle had an unconvincing World T20 and their bowling again looks weak even with the addition of Mitchell Starc who wasn't great in the World Cup either. 

    1 M Vijay, 2 Quinton de Ko ck, 3 Kevin Pietersen, 4 Dinesh Karthik, 5 Ross Taylor

    That Dehli top 6 has real potential, hopefully my hero KP can find his feet from game 1, and Ross Taylor is a vastly under-rated batsman imo!

    Mumbai & Dehli double pays 2.66/1

    ----

    My IPL betting thread last time round was abit of a mess, loads of weird amounts being staked and no real system. Going to try and copy the pros by using a points system this time :D 

    Bets placed.

    Kohli top RCB batsman @ 11/8 3 points.

    Punjab to win the tournament @ 13/2 2 points. 

    George Bailey top Punjab batsman @ 15/2 1 point.  (9/1 has goneeeeeeeeeeeeeeee)

    ------------------

    Mumbai & Dehli win double @ 2.66/1 1 point. 


    cba opening an account on winner.com, so not done the Vohra bet. 66/1 elsewhere is rubbish. Prob going to be player of the tournament now.

    Bring on Matt Smith, Ravi Shashtri & strategic timeouts! wiiiiiiiiiiiii

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLhC74QJQ_c
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    Calcutta v Bombay

    Only Ghambir is left handed in the top order. (Shakib may play but they have better spinners and better batters than him)

    Ojha top bowler - 11/4 - 1pt

    Ultra dependable bowler, takes over a wicket a game, economy under 7.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Gotta be impressed with that KKR bowling attack. Relative to others in the tournament, at least.

    Just don't see them getting enough runs throughout the comp.....
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    Picked Shakib of course.

    Spot on about KKR dohhhhh
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    drop in pitch, courtesy of Durham CCC
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Having a go at 'trading' this!

    I've no idea what I'm doing hahaha.

    Only started with a fiver on Mumbai pre toss. Moved it over to KKR after 4 overs, added more after 8.

    Really could do with Kallis out soon so KKR can do some damage before Malinga comes back for his last 3 at the end.

    It's good fun!
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Tactical Kallis drop obv.

    Malinga knows the game.

    wiiiii what does DOH KNOW! haha. G'wan JACK!
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Ignored my instincts and went into gamboooooool mode that with so many wickets left KKR could get the slinger away.

    fmlllll

    No choice but to leave it till half time now that he's bowled out.

    Harsh lesson learnt :(

    Big last over plz.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Can get a £8.05 freeroll at the break on KKR if I even it up, sounds like a good freeroll to me off a £5 investment.

    Looking at twitter though the guys on there have a greater potential ROI gtd,

    must do better!

    Expect the Mumbai innings to go the opposite way to KKR, good start, stutter between 6-14 and a close finish.

    Will gambooooool and try to have lots of big ROI gtd after 16.

    Do you coach this? hahaha.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    ughhhhh had a mare here, no idea where to go with it.

    I guess hang on and hope the 2 innings take a similar pattern?

    Left myself no outs rly.

    Still at least I cant lose.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    Aight I've ballsed this up long ago, but why are they batting Narine out with 4 overs left when they need 18 an over?

    aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    Reminds me of England v SA in the WT20.

    Ended up -£1.77. wow!
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    Extremely depressed today, was within touching distance of being rolled for a £4 per point staking system.

    Missed value on a tip i received last night compounded by a few place lays going wrong.
    Felt as if I was betting for the sake of it today which is annoying.

    Gonna try and get in 15+ bets on the 2 live greyhound cards (1pt stake only)

    Had to go out and missed some of the cricket. Dropped another point on that as Ohja went wicketless.
     *********************************

    FWIW Dohhhh I always take the freeroll. Mainly because I'm pretty spineless. That being said its easier to get fidgety in a 3 hour cricket game compared to horses or dogs.

    Do you mean theres a twitter page doing cricket tips???
    I've not got an account but will make one if theres stuff like that going about.
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: IPL 2014 tips + stuff:
    Extremely depressed today, was within touching distance of being rolled for a £4 per point staking system. Missed value on a tip i received last night compounded by a few place lays going wrong. Felt as if I was betting for the sake of it today which is annoying. Gonna try and get in 15+ bets on the 2 live greyhound cards (1pt stake only) Had to go out and missed some of the cricket. Dropped another point on that as Ohja went wicketless.  ********************************* FWIW Dohhhh I always take the freeroll. Mainly because I'm pretty spineless. That being said its easier to get fidgety in a 3 hour cricket game compared to horses or dogs. Do you mean theres a twitter page doing cricket tips??? I've not got an account but will make one if theres stuff like that going about.
    Posted by ff55hh
    Yeh there are out and out tipsters on there but also traders who put some 'books' up that look insane (big numbers).

    It's a great tool for stuff like this, I've made a mess of mine by following 100s of plonkers from stuff like big brother so amongst the interesting stuff I get spammed with rubbish.

    Appears easier to make a new 1 than to clean mine up, so going to do that today. I'll pm you a list of good people to follow later.

    ------

    Having another go at trading the game today, starting point is £6.38 on Dehli to win @ 9/5

    Hoping to learn lessons from yesterday and make it pay today!!!
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    Just a watching brief for me today. Daily hunt for the racing post took over 90 minutes and tired me out.
    Focusing only on hounds later. Quality insight on 212 last night, "The thing is you never know with dogs"

    Not sure if I love Shonali Nagrani or Isa Guha the most.

    Edit** - like the daredevils spin combo
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    On sunrisers here in running.

    Any interest in the snooker world champs dohhhhh?
  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited April 2014
    constant ad breaks are tilting me


    Edit****

    ffs

    was going for a 1pt on rahane top scorer @ 4.0. Put it on watson by mistake. Can't bail out yet. Watch Steyn get him LBW 1st ball
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